Table of contents

The interannual relationship between North American (NA) winter temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and its decadal variation are analyzed. NA temperature anomalies are dominated by two leading maximum covariance analysis (MCA) modes of NA surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential anomalies. A new teleconnection index, termed the Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) pattern, is constructed from the normalized geopotential field after linearly removing the contribution of the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. The ABNA pattern is sustained by synoptic eddy forcing. The first MCA mode of NA surface temperature is highly correlated with the PNA and ABNA teleconnections, and the second mode with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This indicates that NA temperature is largely controlled by these three large-scale atmospheric patterns, i.e., the PNA, ABNA and NAO. These temperature-circulation relationships appear stationary in the 20th century.

The 2003 drought event in Europe had major implications on many societal sectors, including energy production, health, forestry and agriculture. The reduced availability of water accompanied by high temperatures led to substantial economic losses on the order of 1.5 Billion Euros, in agriculture alone. Furthermore, soil droughts have considerable impacts on ecosystems, forest fires and water management. Monitoring soil water availability in near real-time and at high-resolution, i.e., 4 × 4 km², enables water managers to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. The German drought monitor was established in 2014 as an online platform. It uses an operational modeling system that consists of four steps: (1) a daily update of observed meteorological data by the German Weather Service, with consistency checks and interpolation; (2) an estimation of current soil moisture using the mesoscale hydrological model; (3) calculation of a quantile-based soil moisture index (SMI) based on a 60 year data record; and (4) classification of the SMI into five drought classes ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. Finally, an easy to understand map is produced and published on a daily basis on www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor. Analysis of the ongoing 2015 drought event, which garnered broad media attention, shows that 75% of the German territory underwent drought conditions in July 2015. Regions such as Northern Bavaria and Eastern Saxony, however, have been particularly prone to drought conditions since autumn 2014. Comparisons with historical droughts show that the 2015 event is amongst the ten most severe drought events observed in Germany since 1954 in terms of its spatial extent, magnitude and duration.

Regular diurnal and weekly cycles (WCs) in temperature provide valuable insights into the consequences of anthropogenic activity on the urban environment. Different locations experience a range of identified WCs and have very different structures. Two important sources of urban heat are those associated with the effect of large urban structures on the radiation budget and energy storage and those from the heat generated as a consequence of anthropogenic activity. The former forcing will remain relatively constant, but a WC will appear in the latter. WCs for specific times of day and the urban heat island (UHI) have not been analysed heretofore. We use three-hourly surface (2 m) temperature data to analyse the WCs of seven major Australian cities at different times of day and to determine to what extent one of our major city's (Melbourne) UHI exhibits a WC. We show that the WC of temperature in major cities differs according to the time of day and that the UHI intensity of Melbourne is affected on a WC. This provides crucial information that can contribute toward the push for healthier urban environments in the face of a more extreme climate.

The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.

Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia's soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.

It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

While crop models are widely used to assess the change in crop productivity with climate change, their skill in assessing irrigation water demand or the risk of crop failure in large area impact assessments is relatively unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate which aspects of modeling crop water use (reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀), soil water extraction, soil evaporation, soil water balance and root growth) contributes most to the variability in estimates of maize crop water use and the risk of crop failure, and demonstrate the resulting uncertainty in a climate change impact study for Europe. The SIMPLACE crop modeling framework was used to couple the LINTUL5 crop model in factorial combinations of 2–3 different approaches for simulating the 5 aspects of crop water use, resulting in 51 modeling approaches. Using experiments in France and New Zeland, analysis of total sensitivity revealed that ET₀ explained the most variability in both irrigated maize water use and rainfed grain yield levels, with soil evaporation also imporatant in the French experiment. In the European impact study, net irrigation requirement differed by 36% between the Penman and Hargreaves ET₀ methods in the baseline period. Average EU grain yields were similar between models, but differences approached 1–2 tonnes in parts of France and Southern Europe. EU wide esimates of crop failure in the historical period ranged between 5.4 years for Priestley–Taylor to every 7.9 years for the Penman ET₀ methods. While the uncertainty in absolute values between models was significant, estimates of relative changes were similar between models, confirming the utility of crop models in assessing climate change impacts. If ET₀ estimates in crop models can be improved, through the use of appropriate methods, uncertainty in irrigation water demand as well as in yield estimates under drought can be reduced.

Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is investigated as a method to mitigate local ocean acidification and protect tropical coral ecosystems during a 21st century high CO₂ emission scenario. Employing an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, our implementation of AOA in the Great Barrier Reef, Caribbean Sea and South China Sea regions, shows that alkalinization has the potential to counteract expected 21st century local acidification in regard to both oceanic surface aragonite saturation Ω and surface pCO₂. Beyond preventing local acidification, regional AOA, however, results in locally elevated aragonite oversaturation and pCO₂ decline. A notable consequence of stopping regional AOA is a rapid shift back to the acidified conditions of the target regions. We conclude that AOA may be a method that could help to keep regional coral ecosystems within saturation states and pCO₂ values close to present-day values even in a high-emission scenario and thereby might 'buy some time' against the ocean acidification threat, even though regional AOA does not significantly mitigate the warming threat.

Remotely sensed surface urban heat islands (UHIs) have gained considerable interest in recent decades due to the easy access and the wall-to-wall coverage of satellite products. The magnitude or intensity of surface UHIs have been well documented at regional and global scales, yet a systematic evaluation of the temporal variability over large areas is still lacking. In this study, the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface UHI intensities (SUHIIs) in China are examined using Aqua/Terra MODIS data from 2008 to 2012. Results show that the mean annual SUHIIs varied greatly in a diurnal cycle, characterized by a positive day-night difference (DND) in Southeast China and the opposite in Northeast and Northwest China. Also, the SUHIIs differed dramatically in a seasonal cycle, indicated by a positive summer-winter difference (SWD) in the day and a negative SWD at night, accompanied by the highly diverse DNDs across seasons and geographic regions. Northwest and Northeast China overall showed the largest DND and SWD (>3 °C), respectively. These diurnal and seasonal variations depend strongly on local climate-vegetation regimes, as indicated by a strong positive correlation between DND and precipitation (and air temperature) and a negative relationship between DND and vegetation activity across cities and seasons. In particular, SHUIIs were quadratically correlated with the mean annual precipitation across space, suggesting that there might be a threshold in terms of the effects induced by local background climate. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the temporal variability of UHIs for more accurate characterization of the associated ecological and social-economic consequences.

In the Western United States (US), the current mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemic has affected more than five million hectares since its start in 1996, including headwater catchments that supply water to much of the Western US. There is widespread concern that the hydrologic consequences of the extensive pine tree die-off will impact water supply across the Western US. While forest disturbance studies have shown that streamflow increases in response to tree harvest, the actual effect of bark beetle infestations on water supply remains widely debated. The current study evaluates watershed-level response following bark beetle outbreak for 33 watersheds in seven western states. Streamflow records were investigated to assess whether the timing and amount of stream discharge during bark beetle outbreak and early recovery periods were significantly different to pre-outbreak conditions. Results show no significant modification in peak flows or average daily streamflow following bark beetle infestation, and that climate variability may be a stronger driver of streamflow patterns and snowmelt timing than chronic forest disturbance.

We present a synthesis of the land-atmosphere carbon flux from land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Asia using multiple data sources and paying particular attention to deforestation and forest regrowth fluxes. The data sources are quasi-independent and include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization-Forest Resource Assessment (FAO-FRA 2015; country-level inventory estimates), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3), the 'Houghton' bookkeeping model that incorporates FAO-FRA data, an ensemble of 8 state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM), and 2 recently published independent studies using primarily remote sensing techniques. The estimates are aggregated spatially to Southeast, East, and South Asia and temporally for three decades, 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Since 1980, net carbon emissions from LULCC in Asia were responsible for 20%–40% of global LULCC emissions, with emissions from Southeast Asia alone accounting for 15%–25% of global LULCC emissions during the same period. In the 2000s and for all Asia, three estimates (FAO-FRA, DGVM, Houghton) were in agreement of a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with mean estimates ranging between 0.24 to 0.41 Pg C yr⁻¹, whereas EDGARv4.3 suggested a net carbon sink of −0.17 Pg C yr⁻¹. Three of 4 estimates suggest that LULCC carbon emissions declined by at least 34% in the preceding decade (1990–2000). Spread in the estimates is due to the inclusion of different flux components and their treatments, showing the importance to include emissions from carbon rich peatlands and land management, such as shifting cultivation and wood harvesting, which appear to be consistently underreported.

Corporations and other multinational institutions are increasingly looking to evaluate their innovation and procurement decisions over a range of environmental criteria, including impacts on ecosystem services according to the spatial configuration of activities on the landscape. We have developed a spatially explicit approach and modeled a hypothetical corporate supply chain decision representing contrasting patterns of land-use change in four regions of the globe. This illustrates the effect of introducing spatial considerations in the analysis of ecosystem services, specifically sediment retention. We explored a wide variety of contexts (Iowa, USA; Mato Grosso, Brazil; and Jiangxi and Heilongjiang in China) and these show that per-area representation of impacts based on the physical characterization of a region can be misleading. We found two- to five-fold differences in sediment export for the same amount of habitat conversion within regions characterized by similar physical traits. These differences were mainly determined by the distance between land use changes and streams. The influence of landscape configuration is so dramatic that it can override wide variation in erosion potential driven by physical factors like soil type, slope, and climate. To minimize damage to spatially-dependent ecosystem services like water purification, sustainable sourcing strategies should not assume a direct correlation between impact and area but rather allow for possible nonlinearity in impacts, especially in regions with little remaining habitat and highly variable hydrological connectivity.

Obtaining sufficient drinking water with acceptable quality under circumstances of lack, such as droughts, is a challenge in drought-prone areas of India. This study examined rural drinking water availability issues during a recent drought (2012) through 22 focus group discussions (FGDs) in a drought-prone catchment of India. Also, a small chemical water quality study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of water for drinking purpose based on Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The drought that began in 2011 and further deteriorated water supplies in 2012 caused a rapid decline in reservoir storages and groundwater levels that led, in turn, to the failure of the public water supply systems in the Upper Bhima Catchment. Dried up and low-yield dug wells and borewells, tanker water deliveries from remote sources, untimely water deliveries, and degraded water quality were the major problems identified in the FGDs. In addition to severe drinking water scarcity during drought, the quality of the drinking water was found to be a major problem, and it apparently was neglected by local governments and users. Severe contamination of the drinking water with nitrate-nitrogen, ammonium-nitrogen, and chlorides was found in the analyzed drinking water samples. Hence, in addition to the water scarcity, the results of this study point to an immediate need to investigate the problem of contaminated drinking water sources while designing relief measures for drought-prone areas of India.

Nitrogen dioxide and ozone are two interrelated oxidative pollutants in the atmosphere. Few studies have evaluated the health effects of combined oxidant capacity (O_x). We investigated the short-term effects of O_x on fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), a well-established biomarker for airway inflammation, in a group of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. Real-time concentrations of O_x were obtained by calculating directly the sum of nitrogen dioxide and ozone. Linear mixed-effect models were applied to explore the acute effects of O_x on FeNO levels. Short-term exposure to O_x was significantly associated with elevated FeNO. This effect was strongest in the first 24 h after exposure, and was robust to the adjustment of PM_2.5. A 10 μg m⁻³ increase in 24 h average concentrations of O_x was associated with 4.28% (95% confidence interval: 1.19%, 7.37%) increase in FeNO. The effect estimates were statistically significant only among males, elders, and those with body mass index ≥24 kg m⁻², a comorbidity, higher educational attainment, or moderate airflow limitation. This analysis demonstrated an independent effect of O_x on respiratory inflammation, and suggested that a single metric O_x might serve as a preferable indicator of atmospheric oxidative capacity in further air pollution epidemiological studies.

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

Increasing energy demands and the drive towards low carbon (C) energy sources has prompted a rapid increase in ground-mounted solar parks across the world. This represents a significant global land use change with implications for the hosting ecosystems that are poorly understood. In order to investigate the effects of a typical solar park on the microclimate and ecosystem processes, we measured soil and air microclimate, vegetation and greenhouse gas emissions for twelve months under photovoltaic (PV) arrays, in gaps between PV arrays and in control areas at a UK solar park sited on species-rich grassland. Our results show that the PV arrays caused seasonal and diurnal variation in air and soil microclimate. Specifically, during the summer we observed cooling, of up to 5.2 °C, and drying under the PV arrays compared with gap and control areas. In contrast, during the winter gap areas were up to 1.7 °C cooler compared with under the PV arrays and control areas. Further, the diurnal variation in both temperature and humidity during the summer was reduced under the PV arrays. We found microclimate and vegetation management explained differences in the above ground plant biomass and species diversity, with both lower under the PV arrays. Photosynthesis and net ecosystem exchange in spring and winter were also lower under the PV arrays, explained by microclimate, soil and vegetation metrics. These data are a starting point to develop understanding of the effects of solar parks in other climates, and provide evidence to support the optimisation of solar park design and management to maximise the delivery of ecosystem services from this growing land use.

Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations' imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations' exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the 'cap-and-trade' and 'boarder-tax-adjustment' schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption.

Severe convective storms cause catastrophic losses each year in the United States, suggesting that any predictive capability is of great societal benefit. While it is known that El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence high impact weather events, such as a tornado activity and severe storms, in the US during early spring, this study highlights that the influence of ENSO on US severe storm characteristics is weak during May–July. Instead, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is a potential predictor for moist instability, which is an important factor in influencing the storm characteristics in the US during May–July.

Electricity from fossil fuels contributes substantially to both climate change and the health burden of air pollution. Renewable energy sources are capable of displacing electricity from fossil fuels, but the quantity of health and climate benefits depend on site-specific attributes that are not often included in quantitative models. Here, we link an electrical grid simulation model to an air pollution health impact assessment model and US regulatory estimates of the impacts of carbon to estimate the health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities of different sizes in two different locations. We find that offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic is capable of producing health and climate benefits of between $54 and $120 per MWh of generation, with the largest simulated facility (3000 MW off the coast of New Jersey) producing approximately $690 million in benefits in 2017. The variability in benefits per unit generation is a function of differences in locations (Maryland versus New Jersey), simulated years (2012 versus 2017), and facility generation capacity, given complexities of the electrical grid and differences in which power plants are offset. This work demonstrates health and climate benefits of offshore wind, provides further evidence of the utility of geographically-refined modeling frameworks, and yields quantitative insights that would allow for inclusion of both climate and public health in benefits assessments of renewable energy.

Green roofs have been utilized for urban stormwater management due to their ability to capture rainwater locally. Studies of the most common type, extensive green roofs, have demonstrated that green roofs can retain significant amounts of stormwater, but have also shown variation in seasonal performance. The purpose of this study is to determine how time of year impacts the hydrologic performance of extensive green roofs considering the covariates of antecedent dry weather period (ADWP), potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and storm event size. To do this, nearly four years of monitoring data from two full-scale extensive green roofs (with differing substrate depths of 100 mm and 31 mm) are analyzed. The annual performance is then modeled using a common empirical relationship between rainfall and green roof runoff, with the addition of Julian day in one approach, ET₀ in another, and both ADWP and ET₀ in a third approach. Together the monitoring and modeling results confirm that stormwater retention is highest in warmer months, the green roofs retain more rainfall with longer ADWPs, and the seasonal variations in behavior are more pronounced for the roof with the thinner media than the roof with the deeper media. Overall, the ability of seasonal accounting to improve stormwater retention modeling is demonstrated; modification of the empirical model to include ADWP, and ET₀ improves the model R² from 0.944 to 0.975 for the thinner roof, and from 0.866 to 0.870 for the deeper roof. Furthermore, estimating the runoff with the empirical approach was shown to be more accurate then using a water balance model, with model R² of 0.944 and 0.866 compared to 0.975 and 0.866 for the thinner and deeper roof, respectively. This finding is attributed to the difficulty of accurately parameterizing the water balance model.

The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ∼16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June–July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69, p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Water and energy are coupled in intimate ways (Siddiqi and Anadon 2011 Energy Policy39 4529–40), which is amplified by international energy trade. The study shows that the total volume of energy related international embodied water flows averaged 6298 Mm³ yr⁻¹ from 1992–2010, which represents 10% of the water used for energy production including oil, coal, gas and electricity production. This study calculates embodied water import and export status of 219 countries from 1992 to 2010 and embodied water flow changes of seven regions over time (1992/2000/2010). In addition, the embodied water net export risk-crisis index and net embodied water import benefit index are established. According to the index system, 33 countries export vast amounts of water who have a water shortage, which causes water risk and crisis related to energy trade. While 29 countries abate this risk due to their rich water resource, 45 countries import embodied water linked to energy imports. Based on the different status of countries studied, the countries were classified into six groups with different policy recommendations.

Some of the most damaging impacts of climate change are a consequence of changes to the global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes the water cycle to intensify, increasing both atmospheric water vapor concentrations and global precipitation and enhancing existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P − E). This relationship between temperature and precipitation therefore makes understanding how precipitation has changed with global temperatures in the past crucial for projecting changes with future warming. In situ observations cannot readily estimate global precipitation sensitivity to temperature (dP/dT), as land precipitation changes are affected by water limitation. Satellite observations of precipitation over ocean are only available after 1979, but studies based on them suggest a precipitation sensitivity over wet tropical (30N–30S) oceans that exceeds the Clausius–Clapeyron value. Here, we determine for the first time precipitation sensitivity using longer (1930–2005), island-based in situ observations to estimate dP/dT over islands. The records show a robust pattern of increasing precipitation in the tropics and decreasing precipitation in the subtropics, as predicted from physical arguments, and heavy precipitation shows a stronger sensitivity than mean precipitation over many islands. The pattern and magnitude of island-based dP/dT agree with climate models if masked to island locations, supporting model predictions of future changes.

The five most severe and persistent droughts in the American West (AW) during the Common Era occurred during a 450 year period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA—850–1299 C.E.). Herein we use timeseries modeling to estimate the probability of such a period of hydroclimate change occurring. Clustering of severe and persistent drought during an MCA-length period occurs in approximately 10% of surrogate timeseries that were constructed to have the same characteristics as a tree-ring derived estimate of AW hydroclimate variability between 850 and 2005 C.E. Periods of hydroclimate change like the MCA are thus expected to occur in the AW, although not frequently, with a recurrence interval of approximately 11 000 years. Importantly, a shift in mean hydroclimate conditions during the MCA is found to be necessary for drought to reach the severity and persistence of the actual MCA megadroughts. This result has consequences for our understanding of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics underlying the MCA and a persistently warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is suggested to have played an important role in causing megadrought clustering during this period.

Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha⁻¹ a⁻¹), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha⁻¹ a⁻¹: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

The representation of land surface processes and fluxes in climate models critically affects the simulation of near-surface climate over land. Here we present an evaluation of COSMO-CLM², a model which couples the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model to the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). CLM4.0 provides a more detailed representation of land processes compared to the native land surface scheme in COSMO-CLM. We perform historical reanalysis-driven simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM² following the EURO-CORDEX intercomparison protocol. We then evaluate simulations performed with COSMO-CLM², the standard COSMO-CLM and other EURO-CORDEX RCMs against various observational datasets of temperature, precipitation and surface fluxes. Overall, the results indicate that COSMO-CLM² outperforms both the standard COSMO-CLM and the other EURO-CORDEX models in simulating sensible, latent and surface radiative fluxes as well as 2-meter temperature across different seasons and regions. The performance improvement is particularly strong for turbulent fluxes and for daily maximum temperatures and more modest for daily minimum temperature, suggesting that land surface processes affect daytime even more than nighttime conditions. COSMO-CLM² also alleviates a long-standing issue of overestimation of interannual summer temperature variability present in most EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Finally, we show that several factors contribute to these improvements, including the representation of evapotranspiration, radiative fluxes and ground heat flux. Overall, these results demonstrate that land processes represent a key area of development to tackle current deficiencies in RCMs.

Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group's national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

Due to its prevalence in modern infrastructure, concrete is experiencing the most rapid increase in consumption among globally common structural materials; however, the production of concrete results in approximately 8.6% of all anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Many methods have been developed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of concrete. These methods range from the replacement of inefficient manufacturing equipment to alternative binders and the use of breakthrough technologies; nevertheless, many of these methods have barriers to implementation. In this research, we examine the extent to which the increased use of several currently implemented methods can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in concrete material production without requiring new technologies, changes in production, or novel material use. This research shows that, through increased use of common supplementary cementitious materials, appropriate selection of proportions for cement replacement, and increased concrete design age, 24% of greenhouse gas emissions from global concrete production or 650 million tonnes (Mt) CO₂-eq can be eliminated annually.

This study combines a literature survey and field observation data in an ad initio attempt to construct a process-based model of methane sink in upland soils including both the biological and physical aspects of the process. Comparison is drawn between the predicted sink rates and chamber measurements in several forest and grassland sites in the southern part of West Siberia. CH₄ flux, total respiration, air and soil temperature, soil moisture, pH, organic content, bulk density and solid phase density were measured during a field campaign in summer 2014. Two datasets from literature were also used for model validation. The modeled sink rates were found to be in relatively good correspondence with the values obtained in the field. Introduction of the rhizospheric methanotrophy significantly improves the match between the model and the observations. The Q₁₀ values of methane sink observed in the field were 1.2–1.4, which is in good agreement with the experimental results from the other studies. Based on modeling results, we also conclude that soil oxygen concentration is not a limiting factor for methane sink in upland forest and grassland ecosystems.

Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO₂ forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO₂ and less over the 2010–2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today's levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO₂ (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%–75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10–90th interval of available data).

Global consumption of farming commodities is an important driver of water demand in regions of production. This is the case in Brazil, which has emerged as one of the main producers of globally traded farming commodities. Traditional methods to assess environmental implications of this demand rely on international trade material flows at country resolution; we argue for the need of finer scales that capture spatial heterogeneity in environmental variables in the regions of production, and that account for differential sourcing within the borders of a country of production. To illustrate this, we obtain virtual water flows from Brazilian municipalities to countries of consumption, by allocating high-resolution water footprints of sugarcane and soy production to spatially-explicit material trade flows. We found that this approach results in differences of virtual water use estimations of over 20% when compared to approaches that disregard spatial heterogeneity in sourcing patterns, for three of the main consumers of the analysed crops. This discrepancy against methods using national resolution in trade flows is determined by national heterogeneity in water resources, and differential sourcing. To illustrate the practical implications of this approach, we relate virtual water flows to water stress, identifying where global demand for water coincides with high levels of water stress. For instance, the virtual water flows for Brazilian sugarcane sourced by China were disproportionally less associated to areas with higher water stress when compared to those of the EU, due to EU's much higher reliance on sugarcane from water scarce areas in Northeast Brazil. Our findings indicate that the policy relevance of current assessments of virtual water flows that rely on trade data aggregated at the national level may be hampered, as they do not capture the spatial heterogeneity in water resources, water use and water management options.

Although tropical dry forests (TDFs) cover roughly 42% of all tropical ecosystems, extensive deforestation and habitat fragmentation pose important limitations for their conservation and restoration worldwide. In order to develop conservation policies for this endangered ecosystem, it is necessary to quantify their provision of ecosystems services such as carbon sequestration and primary production. In this paper we explore the potential of the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) for estimating aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a secondary TDF located at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. We calculated ANPP using the CASA model (ANPP_CASA) in three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late). Each stage has a stand age of 21 years, 32 years, and 50+ years, respectively, estimated as the age since land abandonment. Our results showed that the ANPP_CASA for early, intermediate, and late successional stages were 3.22 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, 8.90 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, and 7.59 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively, which are comparable with rates of carbon uptake in other TDFs. Our results indicate that key variables that influence ANPP in our dry forest site were stand age and precipitation seasonality. Incident photosynthetically active radiation and temperature were not dominant in the ANPP_CASA. The results of this study highlight the potential of the use of remote sensing techniques and the importance of incorporating successional stage in accurate regional TDF ANPP estimation.

Humans affect fire regimes by providing ignition sources in some cases, suppressing wildfires in others, and altering natural vegetation in ways that may either promote or limit fire. In North America, several studies have evaluated the effects of society on fire activity; however, most studies have been regional or subcontinental in scope and used different data and methods, thereby making continent-wide comparisons difficult. We circumvent these challenges by investigating the broad-scale impact of humans on fire activity using parallel statistical models of fire probability from 1984 to 2014 as a function of climate, enduring features (topography and percent nonfuel), lightning, and three indices of human activity (population density, an integrated metric of human activity [Human Footprint Index], and a measure of remoteness [roadless volume]) across equally spaced regions of the United States and Canada. Through a statistical control approach, whereby we account for the effect of other explanatory variables, we found evidence of non-negligible human–wildfire association across the entire continent, even in the most sparsely populated areas. A surprisingly coherent negative relationship between fire activity and humans was observed across the United States and Canada: fire probability generally diminishes with increasing human influence. Intriguing exceptions to this relationship are the continent's least disturbed areas, where fewer humans equate to less fire. These remote areas, however, also often have lower lightning densities, leading us to believe that they may be ignition limited at the spatiotemporal scale of the study. Our results suggest that there are few purely natural fire regimes in North America today. Consequently, projections of future fire activity should consider human impacts on fire regimes to ensure sound adaptation and mitigation measures in fire-prone areas.

There is growing evidence that the climatic conditions favorable to the occurrence of large fires (LFs) might not be unique within a homogeneous biogeographic area. But the identification of these coexistent multi-scalar climatologies often relies on empirical observations. Here we classify summer LFs (>120 ha) in Mediterranean France for the period 1973 to 2012, according to their local-scale weather conditions (i.e. temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and fuel moisture proxies). Three distinct climatologies were identified, and were referred as fire weather types (FWTs). (i) One of them is associated with near-normal atmospheric conditions. (ii) A heat-driven (HD) type is mostly discriminated by warm anomalies. (iii) A wind-driven (WD) type is mostly discriminated by faster winds, but cooler anomalies than usual. The frequency of WD and near-normal LFs sharply decreased in southern France over the last decades while the frequency of HD fires remained unchanged. In addition the current increase in HD potential fire days indicates a potential shift in the dominant FWT for this region. This approach offers a better understanding of the variations in fire activity and fire spread patterns in the context of contemporaneous global changes.

Forest and land fires in Riau province of Sumatera increase along with the rapid deforestation, land clearing, and are induced by dry climate. Forest and land fires, which occur routinely every year, cause trans-boundary air pollution up to Singapore. Economic losses were felt by Indonesia and Singapore as the affected country thus creates tensions among neighboring countries. A high concentration of aerosols are emitted from fire which degrade the local air quality and reduce visibility. This study aimed to analyze the impact of the June 2013 smoke haze event on the environment and air quality both in Riau and Singapore as well as to characterize the aerosol properties in Singapore during the fire period. Air quality parameters combine with aerosols from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data and some environmental parameters, i.e. rainfall, visibility, and hotspot numbers are investigated. There are significant relationships between aerosol and environmental parameters both in Riau and Singapore. From Hysplit modeling and a day lag correlation, smoke haze in Singapore is traced back to fire locations in Riau province after propagated one day. Aerosol characterization through aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ångstrom parameter and particle size distribution indicate the presence of fine aerosols in a great number in Singapore, which is characteristic of biomass burning aerosols. Fire and smoke haze even impaired economic activity both in Riau and Singapore, thus leaving some accounted economic losses as reported by some agencies.