Table of contents

Understanding of volcanic activity and its impacts on the atmosphere has evolved in discrete steps, associated with defining eruptions. The eruption of Krakatau, Indonesia, in August 1883 was the first whose global reach was recorded through observations of atmospheric phenomena around the world (Symons 1888). The rapid equatorial spread of Krakatau's ash cloud revealed new details of atmospheric circulation, while the vivid twilights and other optical phenomena were soon causally linked to the effects of particles and gases released from the volcano (e.g. Stothers 1996, Schroder 1999, Hamilton 2012). Later, eruptions of Agung, Bali (1963), El Chichón, Mexico (1982) and Pinatubo, Philippines (1991) led to a fuller understanding of how volcanic SO₂ is transformed to a long-lived stratospheric sulfate aerosol, and its consequences (e.g. Meinel and Meinel 1967, Rampino and Self 1982, Hoffman and Rosen 1983, Bekki and Pyle 1994, McCormick et al 1995).

While our ability to track the dispersal of volcanic emissions has been transformed since Pinatubo, with the launch of fleets of Earth-observing satellites (e.g. NASA's A-Train; ESA's MetOp) and burgeoning networks of ground-based remote-sensing instruments (e.g. lidar and sun-photometers; infrasound and lightning detection systems), there have been relatively few significant eruptions. Thus, there have been limited opportunities to test emerging hypotheses including, for example, the vexed question of the role of 'smaller' explosive eruptions in perturbations of the atmosphere—those that may just be large enough to reach the stratosphere (of size 'VEI 3', Newhall and Self 1982, Pyle 2000). Geological evidence, from ice-cores and historical eruptions, suggests that small explosive volcanic eruptions with the potential to transport material into the stratosphere should be frequent (5–10 per decade), and responsible for a significant proportion of the long-term time-averaged flux of volcanic sulfur into the stratosphere (Rampino and Self 1984, Pyle et al 1996, Self and Rampino 2012). But as yet, there is little evidence for the consequences of this scale of eruption for the climate system (Miles et al 2004), and few data against which to test simulations of stratospheric sulfur-injection 'geoengineering' scenarios of a similar scale and frequency (e.g. English et al 2012).

A hint of the new volcano-observing capability came during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. For a few days in April 2010 meteorological conditions, coupled with a dramatic increase in volcanic ash production, led to the wide dispersal of fine volcanic particles across northern Europe; an event which was widely tracked by ground-based and satellite-borne instruments, augmented by in situ measurements from balloons and aircraft (Bennett et al 2010, Flentje et al 2010, Harrison et al 2010, Stohl et al 2011). Despite the interest in Eyjafjallajökull at the time, this was, geologically, only a very modest eruption with limited sulfur emissions and an impact restricted mainly to the regional troposphere (e.g. Thomas and Prata 2011, Walker et al 2012).

Then, in June 2011, a previously dormant volcano in north-east Africa began to erupt violently. Little is known about Nabro, which is a partially collapsed volcano that straddles the Eritrea–Ethiopia border, and has had no known historical activity (Wiart and Oppenheimer 2005). Despite the remote location, and lack of prior warning, the event and its aftermath were remarkably well captured by remote-sensing instruments, as demonstrated in the new letter by Sawamura et al (2012). Using both ground-based and satellite-borne laser-ranging (lidar) data, Sawamura et al (2012) were able to extract detailed information about the nature of the volcanic aerosol layer, and its spread around the globe. The eruption started strongly, with substantial ash plumes for the first 48 h, rising to 9–14 km altitude (Smithsonian Institution 2011, Bourassa et al 2012), that carried at least 1.3–1.5 Tg of SO₂ (Krotkov et al 2011, Clarisse et al 2012). This was probably the largest sulfur yield from an explosive eruption since Pinatubo and Hudson in 1991 (Deshler et al 2006, Krotkov et al 2010). Within two weeks, volcanic aerosol had been detected at elevations of 15–20 km within the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere above north Africa and southern Eurasia; and within a month, the aerosol had been detected by lidar instruments on every continent in the northern hemisphere, from 20°–45°N. The aerosol, presumed to be dominated by sulfate, persisted for the period of observation (June–September 2011), and led to a small but significant stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) perturbation (average ∼0.02). While this is an order of magnitude lower than global AOD perturbations following the most significant eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Stothers 1996), it is nonetheless substantially larger than estimates of the typical 'nonvolcanic' stratospheric aerosol background ( < 0.01, Deshler 2008).

The Nabro eruption was a particularly interesting event, partly because it was unremarkable. Without remote-sensing measurements, this eruption would probably have passed with little notice; and the geological record of this event is likely to be modest. But now we know that events of this scale still have the potential to have a hemispheric impact on the stratosphere. In this case, as both Sawamura et al (2012) and Bourassa et al (2012) show, the strong Asian summer monsoon was probably responsible for the rapid lofting of the SO₂ plume into the lower stratosphere, where it was able to react to form a fine sulfate aerosol with the potential to persist for some months. Similar arguments will pertain to other geological small—but sulfur-rich—volcanic events in the past, and this calls for a reassessment of our assumptions about the potential impact of small volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden.

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The historical contribution of each country to today's observed atmospheric CO₂ excess and higher temperatures has become a basis for discussions around burden-sharing of greenhouse gas reduction commitments in political negotiations. However, the accounting methods have considered greenhouse gas emissions only during the industrial era, neglecting the fact that land use changes (LUC) have caused emissions long before the Industrial Revolution. Here, we hypothesize that considering preindustrial LUC affects the attribution because the geographic pattern of preindustrial LUC emissions differs significantly from that of industrial-era emissions and because preindustrial emissions have legacy effects on today's atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and temperatures. We test this hypothesis by estimating CO₂ and temperature increases based on carbon cycle simulations of the last millennium. We find that accounting for preindustrial LUC emissions results in a shift of attribution of global temperature increase from the industrialized countries to less industrialized countries, in particular South Asia and China, by up to 2–3%, a level that may be relevant for political discussions. While further studies are needed to span the range of plausible quantifications, our study demonstrates the importance of including preindustrial emissions for the most scientifically defensible attribution.

Using the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), simulations of the two types of El Niño event are evaluated. Previous studies using CMIP3 models pointed out that most of the models tend to simulate a single type of El Niño, and have serious problems in simulating the two types of El Niño independently. On the average, the CGCMs in CMIP5 have slightly better performance in simulating the two types of El Niño event independently with more distinct spatial patterns, compared to those in CMIP3. It is demonstrated that the precipitation response to Cold Tongue El Niño is one of the important factors in simulating the two types of El Niño independently in coupled models, and this precipitation response is closely related to the dry bias over the equatorial eastern Pacific.

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

A sequence of global ocean circulation models, with horizontal mesh sizes of 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.1°, are used to estimate the long-term dispersion by ocean currents and mesoscale eddies of a slowly decaying tracer (half-life of 30 years, comparable to that of ¹³⁷Cs) from the local waters off the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plants. The tracer was continuously injected into the coastal waters over some weeks; its subsequent spreading and dilution in the Pacific Ocean was then simulated for 10 years. The simulations do not include any data assimilation, and thus, do not account for the actual state of the local ocean currents during the release of highly contaminated water from the damaged plants in March–April 2011. An ensemble differing in initial current distributions illustrates their importance for the tracer patterns evolving during the first months, but suggests a minor relevance for the large-scale tracer distributions after 2–3 years. By then the tracer cloud has penetrated to depths of more than 400 m, spanning the western and central North Pacific between 25°N and 55°N, leading to a rapid dilution of concentrations. The rate of dilution declines in the following years, while the main tracer patch propagates eastward across the Pacific Ocean, reaching the coastal waters of North America after about 5–6 years. Tentatively assuming a value of 10 PBq for the net ¹³⁷Cs input during the first weeks after the Fukushima incident, the simulation suggests a rapid dilution of peak radioactivity values to about 10 Bq m⁻³ during the first two years, followed by a gradual decline to 1–2 Bq m⁻³ over the next 4–7 years. The total peak radioactivity levels would then still be about twice the pre-Fukushima values.

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

The Australian Government is currently addressing the challenge of increasing water scarcity through significant on-farm infrastructure investment to facilitate the adoption of new water-efficient pressurized irrigation systems. However, it is highly likely that conversion to these systems will increase on-farm energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, suggesting potential conflicts in terms of mitigation and adaptation policies. This study explored the trade-offs associated with the adoption of more water efficient but energy-intensive irrigation technologies by developing an integrated assessment framework.

Integrated analysis of five case studies revealed trade-offs between water security and environmental security when conversion to pressurized irrigation systems was evaluated in terms of fuel and energy-related emissions, except in cases where older hand-shift sprinkler irrigation systems were replaced. These results suggest that priority should be given, in implementing on-farm infrastructure investment policy, to replacing inefficient and energy-intensive sprinkler irrigation systems such as hand-shift and roll-line. The results indicated that associated changes in the use of agricultural machinery and agrochemicals may also be important.

The findings of this study support the use of an integrated approach to avoid possible conflicts in designing national climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, both of which are being developed in Australia.

The trade of agricultural commodities can be associated with a virtual transfer of the local freshwater resources used for the production of these goods. Thus, trade of food products virtually transfers large amounts of water from areas of food production to far consumption regions, a process termed the 'globalization of water'. We consider the (time-varying) community structure of the virtual water network for the years 1986–2008. The communities are groups of countries with dense internal connections, while the connections are sparser among different communities. Between 1986 and 2008, the ratio between virtual water flows within communities and the total global trade of virtual water has continuously increased, indicating the existence of well defined clusters of virtual water transfers. In some cases (e.g. Central and North America and Europe in recent years) the virtual water communities correspond to geographically coherent regions, suggesting the occurrence of an ongoing process of regionalization of water resources. However, most communities also include countries located on different 'sides' of the world. As such, geographic proximity only partly explains the community structure of virtual water trade. Similarly, the global distribution of people and wealth, whose effect on the virtual water trade is expressed through simple 'gravity models', is unable to explain the strength of virtual water communities observed in the past few decades. A gravity model based on the availability of and demand for virtual water in different countries has higher explanatory power, but the drivers of the virtual water fluxes are yet to be adequately identified.

New methods are needed to accelerate clean energy policy adoption. To that end, this study proposes an innovative financing scheme for renewable and energy efficiency deployment. Financing barriers represent a notable obstacle for energy improvements and this is particularly the case for low income households. Implementing a policy such as PACE—property assessed clean energy—allows for the provision of upfront funds for residential property owners to install electric and thermal solar systems and make energy efficiency improvements to their buildings. This paper will inform the design of better policies tailored to the creation of the appropriate conditions for such investments to occur, especially in those countries where most of the population belongs to the low–middle income range facing financial constraints.

The permafrost carbon–climate feedback is one of the major mechanisms in controlling the climate–ecosystem interactions in northern high latitudes. Of this feedback, methane (CH₄) emission from natural wetlands is critically important due to its high warming potential. The freeze–thaw transition has been confirmed to play an important role in annual CH₄ budget, yet the magnitude of this effect is uncertain. An intensive field campaign was carried out in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China to estimate the CH₄ emission in the spring freeze–thaw transition period. The observation concluded that a large CH₄ source was caused by spring thaw; the maximum hourly emission rate was 48.6 g C m⁻² h⁻¹, more than three orders of the regularly observed CH₄ emission rate in the growing season. In some sporadically observed 'hot spots', the spring thawing effect contributed to a large CH₄ source of 31.3±  10.1 g  C  m ⁻², which is approximately 80% of the previously calculated annual CH₄ emission in the same study area. If our results are typical for natural wetlands in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, we estimate a global CH₄ source strength of 0.5–1.0 Tg C (1 Tg  =10¹² g) caused by spring thaw in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region in the year 2011. Combining with available satellite and flask data, a regional extrapolation reaches a temporal pattern of CH₄ emission during 2003–2009 which is consistent with recently observed changes in atmospheric CH₄ concentration in the high latitudes. This suggests that the CH₄ emission upon spring thaw in the high latitudes might be enhanced by the projected climate warming. These findings indicate that the spring thawing effect is an important mechanism in the permafrost carbon–climate feedback and needs to be incorporated in Earth system models.

As reported by FAO (2005 State of the World's Forests (Rome: UNFAO), 2010 Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010/095 (Rome: UNFAO)), Indonesia experiences the second highest rate of deforestation among tropical countries. Hence, timely and accurate forest data are required to combat deforestation and forest degradation in support of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation policy initiatives. Within Indonesia, Sumatra Island stands out due to the intensive forest clearing that has resulted in the conversion of 70% of the island's forested area through 2010. We present here a hybrid approach for quantifying the extent and change of primary forest in Sumatra in terms of primary intact and primary degraded classes using a per-pixel supervised classification mapping followed by a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based fragmentation analysis. Loss of Sumatra's primary intact and primary degraded forests was estimated to provide suitable information for the objectives of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+) program. Results quantified 7.54 Mha of primary forest loss in Sumatra during the last two decades (1990–2010). An additional 2.31 Mha of primary forest was degraded. Of the 7.54 Mha cleared, 7.25 Mha was in a degraded state when cleared, and 0.28 Mha was in a primary state. The rate of primary forest cover change for both forest cover loss and forest degradation slowed over the study period, from 7.34 Mha from 1990 to 2000, to 2.51 Mha from 2000 to 2010. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) data set was employed to evaluate results. GLAS-derived tree canopy height indicated a significant structural difference between primary intact and primary degraded forests (mean height 28 m ± 8.7 m and 19 m ± 8.2 m, respectively). The results demonstrate a method for quantifying primary forest cover stand-replacement disturbance and degradation that can be replicated across the tropics in support of REDD+ initiatives.

The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.

Sustainable mobility policy for long-distance transportation services should consider emerging automobiles and aircraft as well as infrastructure and supply chain life-cycle effects in the assessment of new high-speed rail systems. Using the California corridor, future automobiles, high-speed rail and aircraft long-distance travel are evaluated, considering emerging fuel-efficient vehicles, new train designs and the possibility that the region will meet renewable electricity goals. An attributional per passenger-kilometer-traveled life-cycle inventory is first developed including vehicle, infrastructure and energy production components. A consequential life-cycle impact assessment is then established to evaluate existing infrastructure expansion against the construction of a new high-speed rail system. The results show that when using the life-cycle assessment framework, greenhouse gas footprints increase significantly and human health and environmental damage potentials may be dominated by indirect and supply chain components. The environmental payback is most sensitive to the number of automobile trips shifted to high-speed rail, and for greenhouse gases is likely to occur in 20–30 years. A high-speed rail system that is deployed with state-of-the-art trains, electricity that has met renewable goals, and in a configuration that endorses high ridership will provide significant environmental benefits over existing modes. Opportunities exist for reducing the long-distance transportation footprint by incentivizing large automobile trip shifts, meeting clean electricity goals and reducing material production effects.

Nabro volcano (13.37°N, 41.70°E) in Eritrea erupted on 13 June 2011 generating a layer of sulfate aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere for months. For the first time we report on ground-based lidar observations of the same event from every continent in the Northern Hemisphere, taking advantage of the synergy between global lidar networks such as EARLINET, MPLNET and NDACC with independent lidar groups and satellite CALIPSO to track the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol layer in various parts of the globe. The globally averaged aerosol optical depth (AOD) due to the stratospheric volcanic aerosol layers was of the order of 0.018 ± 0.009 at 532 nm, ranging from 0.003 to 0.04. Compared to the total column AOD from the available collocated AERONET stations, the stratospheric contribution varied from 2% to 23% at 532 nm.

Optical approaches were developed to examine the relationship between the optically active and the optically inactive fractions of dissolved organic carbon in inland waters. A multiple linear regression model was developed on the basis of an extensive dataset from Taihu Lake, and validated employing data from another large shallow eutrophic lake (Chaohu Lake) in southern China. The model was used to estimate the concentration of dissolved organic matter (n = 191) using the absorption characteristics of its chromophoric fraction with a high correlation coefficient (R² = 0.62) and a low root mean squared error (RMSE = 9.67%). This intra-ecosystem validity allows us to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics using optical remote sensing approaches for these optically complex lakes, where multiple sources and sinks of dissolved organic matter were present.

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO₂ content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO₂ warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO₂ and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO₂ versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

An extremely fresh smoke plume (<5 h) was transported over Barcelona on 23 July 2009, just 5 h after an intense Saharan dust event finalized. Both events were observed by sun-photometer, lidar and satellite systems. Results indicate surprisingly large absorption of mixed dust particles (SSA ∼ 0.83 ± 0.04) with lower SSA than that observed for smoke (0.86  ±  0.04) particles at 440 nm. Our investigation shows that dust particles may have mixed during their transport with anthropogenic and smoke particles. Dust and smoke layers are observed between 1–6 and 1–4 km, with associated lidar ratios at 532 nm of 51 and 36 sr, respectively. Due to low SSAs and moderate surface albedos, shortwave (SW) radiative forcing calculations reveal that a large part of the solar energy losses at the surface is gained by the atmosphere for each aerosol. Here, dust particles produced a positive instantaneous forcing at TOA ( + 8 W m⁻² at 12 UT), while the smoke produced a negative forcing of  − 13 W m⁻² at 17 UT. The associated SW heating rate is calculated to be around 2–3 K day⁻¹ for both dust and smoke aerosols.

We use time- and frequency-domain techniques to quantify the extent to which long-distance interconnection of wind plants in the United States would reduce the variability of wind power output. Previous work has shown that interconnection of just a few wind plants across moderate distances could greatly reduce the ratio of fast- to slow-ramping generators in the balancing portfolio. We find that interconnection of aggregate regional wind plants would not reduce this ratio further but would reduce variability at all frequencies examined. Further, interconnection of just a few wind plants reduces the average hourly change in power output, but interconnection across regions provides little further reduction. Interconnection also reduces the magnitude of low-probability step changes and doubles firm power output (capacity available at least 92% of the time) compared with a single region. First-order analysis indicates that balancing wind and providing firm power with local natural gas turbines would be more cost-effective than with transmission interconnection. For net load, increased wind capacity would require more balancing resources but in the same proportions by frequency as currently, justifying the practice of treating wind as negative load.

Projections of increased domestic natural gas supply and low prices have encouraged increased natural gas utilization in the United States electricity sector. Natural gas can offset coal, likely decreasing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other air emissions such as SO₂ and NO_X. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies using limited system boundaries have attempted to quantify the benefit of offsetting coal use. However, these studies do not consider that relative regional fuel prices may contribute most to the choice of coal over natural gas. External incentives such as low natural gas prices compared to coal are required if natural gas is to displace coal. In this study, simplified economic dispatch models are used to determine how natural gas utilization will increase in the short-term in response to changes in natural gas prices in three US grid regions—ERCOT, MISO and PJM. The results indicate that the change in air emissions is lower than suggested by LCAs, since LCAs generally do not include the complexity of regional electricity grids. For instance, this study estimates that life cycle GHG emissions may, at best, decrease by 7–15% due to low natural gas prices, compared to almost 50% reductions estimated by previous LCAs.

We perform engineering cost analyses of systems capable of delivering 1–5 million metric tonnes (Mt) of albedo modification material to altitudes of 18–30 km. The goal is to compare a range of delivery systems evaluated on a consistent cost basis. Cost estimates are developed with statistical cost estimating relationships based on historical costs of aerospace development programs and operations concepts using labor rates appropriate to the operations. We evaluate existing aircraft cost of acquisition and operations, perform in-depth new aircraft and airship design studies and cost analyses, and survey rockets, guns, and suspended gas and slurry pipes, comparing their costs to those of aircraft and airships. Annual costs for delivery systems based on new aircraft designs are estimated to be $1–3B to deliver 1 Mt to 20–30 km or $2–8B to deliver 5 Mt to the same altitude range. Costs for hybrid airships may be competitive, but their large surface area complicates operations in high altitude wind shear, and development costs are more uncertain than those for airplanes. Pipes suspended by floating platforms provide low recurring costs to pump a liquid or gas to altitudes as high as  ∼ 20 km, but the research, development, testing and evaluation costs of these systems are high and carry a large uncertainty; the pipe system's high operating pressures and tensile strength requirements bring the feasibility of this system into question. The costs for rockets and guns are significantly higher than those for other systems. We conclude that (a) the basic technological capability to deliver material to the stratosphere at million tonne per year rates exists today, (b) based on prior literature, a few million tonnes per year would be sufficient to alter radiative forcing by an amount roughly equivalent to the growth of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing over the next half century, and that (c) several different methods could possibly deliver this quantity for less than $8B per year. We do not address here the science of aerosols in the stratosphere, nor issues of risk, effectiveness or governance that will add to the costs of solar geoengineering.

The Sun has surely been a major external forcing to the climate system throughout the Holocene. Nevertheless, opposite trends in solar radiation and temperatures have been empirically identified in the last few decades. Here, by means of an inferential method—the Granger causality analysis—we analyze this situation and, for the first time, show that an evident causal decoupling between total solar irradiance and global temperature has appeared since the 1960s.

Solar radiation management with stratospheric sulfur aerosols has been proposed as a potential geoengineering strategy to reduce global warming. However, there has been very little investigation on the efficiency of specific injection methods suggested. Here, we show that using stratospheric passenger flights to inject sulfate aerosols would not cause significant forcing under realistic injection scenarios: even if all present-day intercontinental flights were lifted above the tropopause, we simulate global surface shortwave radiative forcings of  − 0.05 W m⁻² and  − 0.10 W m⁻² with current and five times enhanced fuel sulfur concentrations, respectively. In the highly unlikely scenario that fuel sulfur content is enhanced by a factor of 50 (i.e. ten times the current legal limit) the radiative forcing is  − 0.85 W m⁻². This is significantly lower than if the same amount of sulfur were injected over the tropics ( − 1.32 W m⁻², for 3 Tg (S) yr⁻¹) due to a faster loss rate and lower intensity of solar radiation in the northern midlatitudes where current flight paths are concentrated. We also predict lower global forcing in northern hemisphere winter than in summer due to the seasonalities of the solar radiation intensity at midlatitudes, the related OH chemistry that produces sulfate aerosol, and removal of particles.

Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for those who depend on them. Resource-dependent industries and communities need the capacity to adapt to a range of climate risks if they are to remain viable. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure will be required. Transformations represent a switch to a distinct new system where a different suite of factors become important in the design and implementation of response strategies. There is a critical gap in knowledge on understanding transformational capacity and its influences. On the basis of current knowledge on adaptive capacity we propose four foundations for measuring transformational capacity: (1) how risks and uncertainty are managed, (2) the extent of skills in planning, learning and reorganizing, (3) the level of financial and psychological flexibility to undertake change and (4) the willingness to undertake change. We test the influence of place attachment and occupational identity on transformational capacity using the Australian peanut industry, which is presently assessing significant structural change in response to predicted climatic changes. Survey data from 88% of peanut farmers in Queensland show a strong negative correlation between transformational capacity and both place attachment and occupational attachment, suggesting that whilst these factors may be important positive influences on the capacity to adapt to incremental change, they act as barriers to transformational change.

A better understanding of the global carbon cycle as well as of climate change mitigation options such as carbon sequestration requires the quantification of natural and socioeconomic stocks and flows of carbon. A so-far under-researched aspect of the global carbon budget is the accumulation of carbon in long-lived products such as buildings and furniture. We present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic carbon stocks and the corresponding in- and outflows during the period 1900–2008. These data allowed calculation of the annual carbon sink in socioeconomic stocks during this period. The study covers the most important socioeconomic carbon fractions, i.e. wood, bitumen, plastic and cereals. Our assessment was mainly based on production and consumption data for plastic, bitumen and wood products and the respective fractions remaining in stocks in any given year. Global socioeconomic carbon stocks were 2.3 GtC in 1900 and increased to 11.5 GtC in 2008. The share of wood in total C stocks fell from 97% in 1900 to 60% in 2008, while the shares of plastic and bitumen increased to 16% and 22%, respectively. The rate of gross carbon sequestration in socioeconomic stocks increased from 17 MtC yr⁻¹ in 1900 to a maximum of 247 MtC yr⁻¹ in 2007, corresponding to 2.2%–3.4% of global fossil-fuel-related carbon emissions. We conclude that while socioeconomic carbon stocks are not negligible, their growth over time is not a major climate change mitigation option and there is an only modest potential to mitigate climate change by the increase of socioeconomic carbon stocks.

We studied the interannual variation of late summer snow covered area (SCA), i.e. snowbeds and permanent snow patches, in northern Finland and analyzed the role of topographical factors and climatic conditions on the recent and future occurrence of summer snow. SCA for the years 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2009 was derived from Landsat images using a normalized difference snow index (NDSI). Late summer SCA varied notably between the years (1.5–23.0 km²). A major part of the late summer snow was located above 900–1000 m and on northern and eastern slopes. A generalized additive model (GAM) showed that the number of years with snow present in 1 km grid squares was strongly positively related to altitude and terrain ruggedness. Parallel examination of interannual variation of SCA and climatic conditions showed that snow cover declines were linked to relatively low snowfall-to-rainfall ratios. Annual mean air temperatures, particularly spring and early winter temperatures, showed increasing trends during the study period. Projected increases in air temperatures and rainfall suggest earlier and more efficient snow melt in the future. This may threaten the occurrence of species and communities related to snowbeds and decrease the β-diversity of the landscape, and could also affect ecosystem services of the region.

A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990.

Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona's Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for hydrologic impacts in addition to continued focus on mean temperature effects.

Deciduous shrub growth has increased across the Arctic simultaneously with recent climate warming trends. The reduction in albedo associated with shrub-induced 'greening' of the tundra is predicted to cause significant positive feedbacks to regional warming. Enhanced soil fertility arising from climate change is expected to be the primary mechanism driving shrub responses, yet our overall understanding of the relative importance of soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and the significance of other ecological drivers is constrained by experiments with varying treatments, sites, and durations. We investigated dwarf birch apical stem growth responses to a wide range of ecological factors (enhanced summer temperatures, deepened snow, caribou exclusion, factorial high level nitrogen and phosphorus additions, and low level nitrogen additions) after six years of experimental manipulations in birch hummock tundra. As expected, birch apical stem growth was more strongly enhanced by the substantial increases in nutrient supply than by our changes in any of the other ecological factors. The factorial additions revealed that P availability was at least as important as that of N, and our low N additions demonstrated that growth was unresponsive to moderate increases in soil nitrogen alone. Experimental warming increased apical stem growth 2.5-fold—considerably more than in past studies—probably due to the relatively strong effect of our greenhouses on soil temperature. Together, these results have important implications for our understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of mesic tundra ecosystems as well as predicting their vegetation responses to climate change.

A method to determine the contribution of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species to aerosol radiative forcing using surface-based, columnar and vertical profile measurements, optical properties and radiative transfer models is outlined. Aerosol optical properties and radiative fluxes measured during 2008 over Ahmedabad, an urban city located in western India are utilized. Mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) does not show a strong seasonal variation, while α, the Ångström exponent, exhibits significant seasonal variation. α is higher during winter and post-monsoon, when fine mode aerosols are dominant, while α is lower during pre-monsoon and monsoon, when coarse mode aerosols are abundant. The contribution of mineral dust to the total aerosol mass is higher than 55% as the study location is in a semi-arid region. Natural aerosols (mineral dust and sea salt) dominate the aerosol mass concentration, while anthropogenic aerosols (water soluble aerosols and black carbon) dominate the aerosol optical depth. The percentage contribution of black carbon to the net atmospheric forcing is larger than 65% throughout the year, corroborating that black carbon aerosol is a strong contributor to global warming on regional scales. Black carbon aerosols contribute 50% or more to the aerosol radiative forcing at the surface, thus, significantly contributing to solar dimming. The large atmospheric warming and the surface forcing due to black carbon aerosols can influence the hydrological cycle. Results emphasize that aerosol radiative forcing is governed more by aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth and single scattering albedo) rather than their mass, and there exists no linear relation between mass, optical depth and radiative effects of different aerosol species. These results and the relationship can be used to delineate the anthropogenic influence of aerosols from their natural counterpart, because anthropogenic aerosols in the fine mode (lower mass) give rise to higher AOD, lower SSA, higher aerosol radiative forcing, while natural aerosols which are in the coarse mode (higher mass) give rise to lower AOD, higher SSA and lower aerosol radiative forcing.

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier volume and extent globally have led to concerns about the implications for water supplies. Glacier contributions to river discharge are not well known on a regional or global basis, nor are the populations at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate upper bounds on the fraction of river discharge attributable to glacier discharge on a monthly basis using a global hydrology model and glacier energy balance computations, and track this fraction through the global stream network. In general, our estimates of the fraction of river discharge attributable to glacier sources are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we estimate that globally 370 (140) million people live in river basins where glacier sources contribute at least 10% (25%) of river discharge on a seasonal basis. Most of this population is in the High Asia region.

Life cycle analysis methods were employed to model the greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with geothermal power production when supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO₂) is used instead of saline geofluids to recover heat from below ground. Since a significant amount of scCO₂ is sequestered below ground in the process, a constant supply is required. We therefore combined the scCO₂ geothermal power plant with an upstream coal power plant that captured a portion of its CO₂ emissions, compressed it to scCO₂, and transported the scCO₂ by pipeline to the geothermal power plant. Emissions and energy consumption from all operations spanning coal mining and plant construction through power production were considered, including increases in coal use to meet steam demand for the carbon capture. The results indicated that the electricity produced by the geothermal plant more than balanced the increase in energy use resulting from carbon capture at the coal power plant. The effective heat rate (BTU coal per total kW h of electricity generated, coal plus geothermal) was comparable to that of traditional coal, but the ratio of life cycle emissions from the combined system to that of traditional coal was 15% when 90% carbon capture efficiency was assumed and when leakage from the surface was neglected. Contributions from surface leakage were estimated with a simple model for several hypothetical surface leakage rates.

Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter.

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is  − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of  − 17% (wheat),  − 5% (maize),  − 15% (sorghum) and  − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of  − 16% (maize) and  − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of  > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

With the emerging nationwide availability of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) at prices attainable for many consumers, electric utilities, system operators and researchers have been investigating the impact of this new source of energy demand. The presence of BEVs on the electric grid might offer benefits equivalent to dedicated utility-scale energy storage systems by leveraging vehicles' grid-connected energy storage through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) enabled infrastructure. It is, however, unclear whether BEVs will be available to provide needed grid services when those services are in highest demand. In this work, a set of GPS vehicle travel data from the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) is analyzed to assess temporal patterns in vehicle use. These results show that vehicle use does not vary significantly across months, but differs noticeably between weekdays and weekends, such that averaging the data together could lead to erroneous V2G modeling results. Combination of these trends with wind generation and electricity demand data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) indicates that BEV availability does not align well with electricity demand and wind generation during the summer months, limiting the quantity of ancillary services that could be provided with V2G. Vehicle availability aligns best between the hours of 9 pm and 8 am during cooler months of the year, when electricity demand is bimodal and brackets the hours of highest vehicle use.

This letter consists of a first-order analysis of the primary energy embedded in water in the United States. Using a combination of top-down sectoral assessments of energy use together with a bottom-up allocation of energy-for-water on a component-wise and service-specific level, our analysis concludes that energy use in the residential, commercial, industrial and power sectors for direct water and steam services was approximately 12.3 ± 0.3 quadrillion BTUs or 12.6% of the 2010 annual primary energy consumption in the United States. Additional energy was used to generate steam for indirect process heating, space heating and electricity generation.

Power production from wind turbines can deviate from the manufacturer's specifications due to variability in atmospheric inflow characteristics, including stability, wind shear and turbulence. The practice of insufficient data at many operational wind farms has made it difficult to characterize this meteorological forcing. In this study, nacelle wind measurements from a wind farm in the high plains of central North America were examined along with meteorological tower data to quantify the effects of atmospheric stability regimes in the boundary layer on turbine power generation. The wind power law coefficient and the bulk Richardson number were used to segregate time periods by stability to generate regime-dependent power curves. Results indicated underperformance during stable regimes and overperformance during convective regimes at moderate wind speeds (8–12 m s⁻¹). Statistical testing using the Monte Carlo approach demonstrated that these results were robust, despite potential deviations of the nacelle wind speeds from free-stream inflow values due to momentum loss from the turbine structure and spinning rotor. A hypothetical stability dependence between free-stream and nacelle wind speeds was generated that can be evaluated in future analyses. The low instrumentation requirement of our power analysis technique should enable similar studies at many wind sites formerly considered inappropriate.

The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF_L, which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF_L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF_L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF_L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF_L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment.

While buildings are often credited as accounting for some 40% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the construction phase is typically assumed to account for only around one tenth of the overall emissions. However, the relative importance of construction phase emissions is quickly increasing as the energy efficiency of buildings increases. In addition, the significance of construction may actually be much higher when the temporal perspective of the emissions is taken into account. The construction phase carbon spike, i.e. high GHG emissions in a short time associated with the beginning of the building's life cycle, may be high enough to question whether new construction, no matter how energy efficient the buildings are, can contribute to reaching the greenhouse gas mitigation goals of the near future. Furthermore, the construction of energy efficient buildings causes more GHG emissions than the construction of conventional buildings. On the other hand, renovating the current building stock together with making energy efficiency improvements might lead to a smaller construction phase carbon spike and still to the same reduced energy consumption in the use phase as the new energy efficient buildings. The study uses a new residential development project in Northern Europe to assess the overall life cycle GHG emissions of a new residential area and to evaluate the influence of including the temporal allocation of the life cycle GHG emissions in the assessment. In the study, buildings with different energy efficiency levels are compared with a similar hypothetical area of buildings of the average existing building stock, as well as with a renovation of an area with average buildings from the 1960s. The GHG emissions are modeled with a hybrid life cycle assessment. The study suggests that the carbon payback time of constructing new residential areas is several decades long even when using very energy efficient buildings compared to utilizing the current building stock. Thus, while increasing the overall energy efficiency is important in the long term, the construction of new energy efficient buildings cannot be used as a means to achieve the short term and medium term climate change mitigation goals as cities and governments often suggest. Furthermore, given the magnitude of the carbon spike from construction and its implications, the climate change mitigation strategies should set reduction targets for the construction phase emissions alongside the ones for the use phase, which currently receives almost all of the attention from policy-makers.

The large marine snow formation event observed in oil-contaminated surface waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) after the Deepwater Horizon accident possibly played a key role in the fate of the surface oil. We characterized the unusually large and mucus-rich marine snow that formed and conducted roller table experiments to investigate their formation mechanisms. Once marine snow lost its buoyancy, its sinking velocity, porosity and excess density were then similar to those of diatom or miscellaneous aggregates. The hydrated density of the component particles of the marine snow from the GoM was remarkably variable, suggesting a wide variety of component types. Our experiments suggest that the marine snow appearing at the surface after the oil spill was formed through the interaction of three mechanisms: (1) production of mucous webs through the activities of bacterial oil-degraders associated with the floating oil layer; (2) production of oily particulate matter through interactions of oil components with suspended matter and their coagulation; and (3) coagulation of phytoplankton with oil droplets incorporated into aggregates. Marine snow formed in some, but not all, experiments with water from the subsurface plume of dissolved hydrocarbons, emphasizing the complexity of the conditions leading to the formation of marine snow in oil-contaminated seawater at depth.

The oil released during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill may have both short- and long-time impacts on the northern Gulf of Mexico ecosystems. An understanding of how the composition and concentration of the oil are altered by weathering, including chemical, physical and biological processes, is needed to evaluate the oil toxicity and impact on the ecosystem in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This study examined petroleum hydrocarbons in oil mousse collected from the sea surface and salt marshes, and in oil deposited in sediments adjacent to the wellhead after the DWH oil spill. Oil mousses were collected at two stations (OSS and CT, located 130 and 85 km away from the wellhead, respectively) in May 2010, and two sediment samples from stations SG and SC, within 6 km of the wellhead, in May 2011. We also collected oil mousse from salt marshes at Marsh Point (MP), Mississippi, 186 km away from the wellhead in July 2010. In these samples, n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), alkylated PAHs, BTEX (collective name of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and p-, m-, and o-xylenes), C₃-benzenes and trace metals were measured to examine how the oil was altered chemically. The chemical analysis indicates that the oil mousses underwent different degrees of weathering with the pattern of OSS < CT < MP. This pattern is consistent with the projected oil mousse movement from the accident site to salt marshes. Also, the contents of trace metals Al, V, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, As and Pb in the oil mousse generally increased along the way to the salt marshes, indicating that these trace metals were perhaps aggregated into the oil mousse during the transport. Petroleum hydrocarbon data reveal that the oil deposited in sediments underwent only light to moderate degradation one year after the DWH oil spill, as supported by the presence of short-chained n-alkanes (C₁₀–C ₁₅), BTEX and C ₃-benzenes. The weathering of oil in sediment may result from biological degradation and dissolution, evidenced by the preferential loss of mid-chained n-alkanes C₁₆–C ₂₇, lower ratios of n-C ₁₇/Pr and n-C ₁₈/Ph , and preferential loss of PAHs relative to alkylated PAHs.

This study tested the hypothesis that soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) spatial distributions show clear relationships with soil properties and vegetation composition as well as climatic conditions. Further, this study aimed to find the corresponding controlling parameters of SOC and TN storage in high-altitude ecosystems. The study was based on soil, vegetation and climate data from 42 soil pits taken from 14 plots. The plots were investigated during the summers of 2009 and 2010 at the northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Relationships of SOC density with soil moisture, soil texture, biomass and climatic variables were analyzed. Further, storage and vertical patterns of SOC and TN of seven representative vegetation types were estimated. The results show that significant relationships of SOC density with belowground biomass (BGB) and soil moisture (SM) can be observed. BGB and SM may be the dominant factors influencing SOC density in the topsoil of the study area. The average densities of SOC and TN at a depth of 1 m were about 7.72 kg C m⁻² and 0.93 kg N m⁻². Both SOC and TN densities were concentrated in the topsoil (0–20 cm) and fell exponentially as soil depth increased. Additionally, the four typical vegetation types located in the northwest of the study area were selected to examine the relationship between SOC and environmental factors (temperature and precipitation). The results indicate that SOC density has a negative relationship with temperature and a positive relationship with precipitation diminishing with soil depth. It was concluded that SOC was concentrated in the topsoil, and that SOC density correlates well with BGB. SOC was predominantly influenced by SM, and to a much lower extent by temperature and precipitation. This study provided a new insight in understanding the control of SOC and TN density in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau.

This study analyzed pollen in snow pits dug in September 2008 and September 2009 upstream of Potanin Glacier in the Mongolian Altai Mountains, which is a summer accumulation-type glacier, to investigate the environment for recent snow deposits. The snow pit observations in both years were carried out at sites 0 and 4, which are 3752 and 3890 m above sea level, respectively. Seasonal layers of the pits were identified according to the taxon of pollen scattered during different seasons. In the 2007 and 2008 layers, concentration peaks of pollen taxa scattered from spring to summer were found at the same depth. Thus, the summer melt reached the spring layer such that pollen grains in the melted layer became concentrated on the summer melt surface and caused the pollen peaks. In contrast, the concentration peaks associated with each season appeared at different depths in the 2009 layer, suggesting that the degree of melting in 2009 was less than that in 2007 and 2008. This interpretation was supported by summer temperature data (June–August) for this region. Deviations in summer air temperatures from mean monthly temperatures for the summers of 1990–2009 were negative in 2009, whereas they were positive in 2007 and 2008.

In order to characterize shrub response near the treeline in Eastern Nunavik (Québec), a region under extensive warming since the 1990s, we compared two series (1964 and 2003) of vertical aerial photos from the vicinity of Kangiqsualujjuaq. Our study revealed a widespread increase in erect woody vegetation cover. During the 40 years spanning the two photo series, erect shrub and tree cover increased markedly on more than half of the land surface available for new colonization or infilling. Within the 7.2 km² analysed, areas with dense shrub and tree cover (>90%) increased from 34% to 44% whereas areas with low cover (<10%) shrank from 45% to 29%. This increase in cover of trees and shrubs occurred throughout the landscape regardless of altitude, slope angle and exposure, although to varying extents. The main shrub species involved in this increase was Betula glandulosa Michx. (dwarf birch), which was present in 98% and dominant in 85% of the 345 plots. In addition, numerous seedlings and saplings of Larix laricina (Du Roi) K Koch (eastern larch) were found above the treeline (25% of the plots), suggesting that the altitudinal treeline might shift upslope in the near future. Sites that remained devoid of erect woody vegetation in 2003 were either characterized by the absence of a suitable seedbed or by harsh local microclimatic conditions (wind exposure or excessive drainage). Our results indicate dramatic increases in shrub and tree cover at a Low Arctic site in Eastern Nunavik, contributing to a growing number of observations of woody vegetation change from various areas around the North.

Extreme climatic events like droughts, floods, heat waves and ice storms impact ecosystems as well as human societies. There is wide concern about how terrestrial ecosystems respond to extreme climatic events in the context of global warming. In this study, we used satellite-derived vegetation greenness data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI), in situ weather station data (temperature and precipitation) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to analyze the spatio-temporal change of the area experiencing vegetation greenness anomalies and extreme climatic events in China from 1982 to 2009. At the national scale, we found that China experienced an increasing trend in heat waves and drought events during the study period. The average fraction of climate stations with drought events (defined by growing season PDSI <− 2) detected increased from 8% in the 1980s, to nearly 20% in the 2000s, at a rate of 0.6% yr⁻¹ (R² = 0.61, P < 0.001). In contrast, the area showing negative anomalies of vegetation greenness decreased at the rate of 0.9% yr⁻¹ from 1982 to 2009 (R² = 0.29, P = 0.003), although this trend stalled or reversed during the 2000s, particularly in northern China. The decrease in vegetation growth during the last decade over northern China was accompanied by the increase in extreme drought events in the 2000s. In southern China, although both precipitation and PDSI data suggest a greater area experiencing drought events during the 2000s than in the 1980s, the area showing negative vegetation greenness decreased consistently during the whole study period.

About 10% of China's forests were impacted by a destructive ice storm and subsequently subjected to poorly planned salvage logging in 2008. We used the remote-sensing products of Enhanced Vegetation Indexes (EVI) corroborated with information gathered from ground visits to examine the spatial patterns and temporal trajectories of greenness of these nearly 20 million hectares of forests. We found (1) the EVI of about 50% of the impacted forests returned to normal status (i.e., within the 95% confidence interval of the long-term mean) within five months, and about 80% within one year after the storm, (2) the higher the pre-storm EVI (relative to the long-term mean), the slower the rebound of post-storm EVI, and (3) the rebound of greenness was slowest in forests that were moderately impacted by the ice storm only (i.e. before the occurrences of logging), resulting in a nonlinear relationship between greenness rebound time (GRT) and ice storm impact severity (IS). Ground visits suggested a hypothesis that the region-wide rebound in greenness was a consequence of resprouting of physically damaged trees and growth of understory plants including shrub, herbaceous and epiphytic species. These processes were facilitated by the rapid increase in temperature and ample moisture after the ice storm. Gap-phase dynamics could be responsible for the counterintuitive relationship between IS and GRT that was obtained. However, a more parsimonious explanation appears to be biased salvage logging, which may have selectively targeted lightly to moderately impacted forests for economic and accessibility reasons and thus adversely affected the GRT of these forests. Although a purely natural disturbance may result in forest greenness patterns different than those reported here, we suggest that remote-sensing-based dynamic analyses of greenness can play a major role in evaluating disturbance theories and in developing testable hypotheses to guide ground-based studies of the integrated effects of large extreme events and human intervention on forest ecosystems.

The considerable interannual variability (IAV) (∼5 PgC yr⁻¹) observed in atmospheric CO₂ is dominated by variability in terrestrial productivity. Among terrestrial ecosystems, grassland productivity IAV is greatest. Relationships between grassland productivity IAV and climate drivers are poorly explained by traditional multiple-regression approaches. We propose a novel method, the perfect-deficit approach, to identify climate drivers of grassland IAV from observational data. The maximum daily value of each ecological or meteorological variable for each day of the year, over the period of record, defines the 'perfect' annual curve. Deficits of these variables can be identified by comparing daily observational data for a given year against the perfect curve. Links between large deficits of ecosystem activity and extreme climate events are readily identified. We applied this approach to five grassland sites with 26 site-years of observational data. Large deficits of canopy photosynthetic capacity and evapotranspiration derived from eddy-covariance measurements, and leaf area index derived from satellite data occur together and are driven by a local-dryness index during the growing season. This new method shows great promise in using observational evidence to demonstrate how extreme climate events alter yearly dynamics of ecosystem potential productivity and exchanges with atmosphere, and shine a new light on climate–carbon feedback mechanisms.

A current challenge is to understand what are the legacies left by disturbances on ecosystems for predicting response patterns and trajectories. This work focuses on the ecological implications of a major hurricane and analyzes its influence on forest gross primary productivity (GPP; derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS) and soil CO₂ efflux. Following the hurricane, there was a reduction of nearly 0.5 kgC m⁻² yr⁻¹, equivalent to ∼15% of the long-term mean GPP (∼3.0 ± 0.2 kgC m⁻² yr⁻¹; years 2003–8). Annual soil CO₂ emissions for the year following the hurricane were  > 3.9 ± 0.5 kgC m⁻² yr⁻¹, whereas for the second year emissions were 1.7 ± 0.4 kgC m⁻² yr⁻¹. Higher annual emissions were associated with higher probabilities of days with extreme soil CO₂ efflux rates ( > 9.7 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹). The variance of GPP was highly variable across years and was substantially increased following the hurricane. Extreme soil CO₂ efflux after the hurricane was associated with deposition of nitrogen-rich fresh organic matter, higher basal soil CO₂ efflux rates and changes in variance of the soil temperature. These results show that CO₂ dynamics are highly variable following hurricanes, but also demonstrate the strong resilience of tropical forests following these events.

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The article should include the following section: Acknowledgment This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (MEST) (NRF-2009—C1AAA001—2009-0093042).