Table of contents

Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90–1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011).

This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr⁻¹ at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr⁻¹ over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007).

With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon, experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors.

Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere.

The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston, South Carolina; coastal cities across Florida, especially its southeast and the Tampa area; New Orleans; the San Francisco Bay Area and San Joaquin Delta; and greater Los Angeles. Overall, 3.7 million people across the US are estimated to live within 1 m of the present high-tide line.

The second paper, by Tebaldi et al, specifically looks at storm surges and how their frequency is expected to change along the US coastline in the coming four decades due to rising sea levels. They first estimate future local sea-level rise relative to the land by combining the observed local trend of the past fifty years with a future acceleration due to global warming as estimated by a semi-empirical model (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009). Then they use past storm surge statistics for many different locations and shift the return level curves according to the projected sea-level rise. The authors find that by mid-century, in some locations what is now a once-per-century flooding event could become an annual event. Those are exceptional places—but at about a third of the sites investigated, a century flood could become a once-per-decade flood.

Of course, many of these events need not have dramatic impacts: in fact, locations where rare floods are quite small in amplitude (and hence presumably modest in their impacts) are precisely those where the return period decreases most dramatically. In a place where the once-per-century flood is only 50 cm higher than the annual flood, a typical 30 cm rise in sea level makes a bigger difference than one in a place where the century flood is 2 m higher than the annual flood. Nevertheless, the expected large changes in return periods and return levels of storm surges clearly demonstrate that accounting for accelerating sea-level rise is vital in the planning and design of coastal infrastructure.

But most importantly, these studies highlight the fact that the modern world, with many millions of people living right by the coast, is highly vulnerable to even modest sea-level rise. Losing just 1% of the present continental ice would raise sea level globally by about 75 cm—a tiny amount in the perspective of palaeoclimate history, e.g. the 120 m rise at the end of the last ice age, but a large amount in terms of impacts on human society. We should do everything we can to limit global warming and thereby sea-level rise to a manageable level.

References

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (Oslo: AMAP)

Church J A and White N J 2006 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophys. Res. Lett.33 L01602

IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)

Levermann A, Griesel A, Hofmann M, Montoya M and Rahmstorf S 2005 Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation Clim. Dyn.24 347–54

Mitrovica J X, Tamisiea M E, Davis J L and Milne G A 2001 Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change Nature409 1026–9

Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church J A, Hansen J E, Keeling R F, Parker D E and Somerville C J 2007 Recent climate observations compared to projections Science316 709

Rahmstorf S, Perrette M and Vermeer M 2011 Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections Clim. Dyn. at press (doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009 Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (Cambridge: Scott Polar Research Institute)

Strauss B, Ziemlinski R, Weiss J and Overpeck J T 2012 Tidally-adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States Environ. Res. Lett.7 014033

Tebaldi C, Strauss B and Zervas C 2012 Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Environ. Res. Lett.7 014032

US Army Corps of Engineers 2011 Sea-Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs (Washington, DC: Department of the Army)

Van den Broeke M R, Bamber J, Lenaerts J and Rignot E 2011 Ice sheets and sea level: thinking outside the box Sur. Geophys.32 495–505

Vellinga P, Katsman C A, Sterl A and Beersma J J 2009 Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands International Scientific Assessment Carried out at the Request of the Delta Committee (De Bilt: KNMI)

Vermeer M and Rahmstorf S 2009 Global sea level linked to global temperature Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA106 21527–32

In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, Alice finds herself running as fast as she can but not moving anywhere. The Red Queen explains to her 'Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that.'

Such is the situation in global agriculture. Global demand for agricultural products continues to rise as population grows and people get richer. As they get richer, people have fewer babies but eat more. And they use a lot more energy, which is increasingly derived from agricultural products. Crop technologies have to move incredibly fast just to keep up. Remarkably, over the past 50 years they have, with yields (production per hectare of land) for most crops more than doubling since 1960, and real prices of food falling for most of the period. In many ways we have come to take continued yield growth for granted. But, as Lin and Huybers show [1] elsewhere in this issue, there is increasing evidence that this growth has stalled in many regions.

The question is not new—people have worried about the pace of yield growth since at least the days of Malthus [2, 3]. But Lin and Huybers [1] use updated data and bring a new rigor to identifying where stagnation is statistically significant, for example by taking care to account for year-to-year correlation in yields. They report that for slightly more than half of the regions that they inspected, it is likely (80% chance) that yield growth has already flattened out. For many of these countries, responsible for about one quarter of global wheat production, the stagnation has very likely occurred (95% chance).

Why are yields of wheat stagnating in so many areas? At least four suspects seem plausible. One narrative is that for years the real price of wheat was declining, providing little incentive for innovation. The most obvious consequence was a major decline in investment in research and development in most regions. The recent rise in prices has reversed the decline, but technologies take a long time to develop and get adopted [4]. So yield increases are in the pipeline but have not arrived yet.

A second narrative relates to farm policy. Farmers always have an incentive to improve profits, but this does not always mean raising yields, especially if policies encourage reducing input use. In Europe, where much of the stagnation identified by Lin and Huybers [1] is found, fertilizer rates have actually declined in recent years in response to policies. One line of evidence in support of this narrative is that total factor productivity appears to be rising steadily in many regions, including Europe, even as yields have stagnated [5].

A third story relates to biophysical limits. This narrative declares that the genetic potential of crops has not improved for a long time, and most yield growth in the past two decades was related to agronomic improvements [6, 7]. But once average yields approach genetic potential, it becomes very difficult to further raise yields, and yields will be stuck regardless of price until innovation raises genetic potential [8]. If innovation is simply a function of prices, then this story folds into the first, but it could also be that returns on breeding are becoming much harder to achieve relative to the transformative effect of dwarfing genes and rust resistance that occurred in the last century.

In the fourth corner is climate change. As Lin and Huybers [1] discuss, many of their stagnating countries have experienced adverse climate trends in the past few decades. Wheat has the lowest temperature optimum of any major crop, and has been among the most affected by climate change so far [9]. So maybe the stagnation is a sign of worse things to come. Interestingly though, they find stagnation even for Northern European countries where recent warming is more likely to have helped than hurt yields [10].

The easy answer is that a combination of these factors is to blame. The real answer is we do not yet know which of these, if any, are the most important. The implications of each for future research and policy are quite different, and so working out a clearer picture is an important task. The efforts of Lin and Huybers [1] provide a useful fingerprint on where and when stagnation has occurred. Now it is time to figure out which of the suspect's fingerprints is a match.

References

[1] Lin M and Huybers P 2012 Reckoning wheat yield trends Environ. Res. Lett.7 024016

[2] Evans L T 1993 Crop Evolution, Adaptation, and Yield (New York: Cambridge University Press)

[3] Hafner S 2003 Trends in maize, rice, and wheat yields for 188 nations over the past 40 years: a prevalence of linear growth Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.97 275–83

[4] Alston J M, Beddow J M and Pardey P G 2009 Agricultural research, productivity, and food prices in the long run Science325 1209–10

[5] Fuglie K O 2010 The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide ed J M Aston, B A Babcock and P G Pardey (Ames, IA: Iowa State University) pp 63–95

[6] Fischer R and Edmeades G O 2010 Breeding and cereal yield progress Crop Sci.50 S85–98

[7] Graybosch R A and Peterson C J 2010 Genetic improvement in winter wheat yields in the great plains of North America, 1959–2008 Crop Sci.50 1882–90

[8] Cassman K G 1999 Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.96 5952–9

[9] Lobell D B, Schlenker W S and Costa-Roberts J 2011 Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 Science333 616–20

[10] Supit I, van Diepen C, de Wit A, Kabat P, Baruth B and Ludwig F 2010 Recent changes in the climatic yield potential of various crops in Europe Agric. Syst.103 683–94

The recent paper on Africa's groundwater by MacDonald et al (2012) has attracted much attention. This is good news, especially since groundwater has been widely ignored, misunderstood or abused, as a fundamental global resource. This important paper goes a long way to raising the profile of groundwater in Africa by providing first-order estimates of the available storage (taking account of saturated aquifer thickness and porosity) as well as mapping expected water yields (aquifer productivity) in that continent. Reliable estimates of groundwater resources can now be set against the far more widely reported surface water availability. The constraints of the methodology used to compile these maps are duly acknowledged, and are well within the hydrogeological state-of-the-art. The paper is backed by carefully reviewed sources of data and a considerable effort has been made to incorporate the extensive grey literature. It is important that this benchmark study is received with the acclaim it deserves. However, the headline—that groundwater storage is some 100 times the annual renewable surface waters—could be misconstrued as implying that groundwater is an abundant new resource, which it is not. Whilst groundwater is key to sustainable development, renewability and accessibility issues need to be addressed. The paper may therefore be seized upon to justify unsustainable groundwater exploitation, or to provide an argument against funding to NGOs and others, for water provision for needy communities. Some constraints that must be taken into account are elaborated here.

The conclusions of the paper (MacDonald et al 2012) demonstrate that modest yields of groundwater are quite widely available at accessible depths and sufficient to sustain small communities and their development, but larger yields (>5 l s⁻¹) suitable for urban development or major agricultural schemes are unlikely outside of the sedimentary terrain. The availability and accessibility of groundwater over much of Africa, therefore, is favourable to rural rather than urban development. One of the real opportunities presented in the paper is that groundwater should be more widely used for a revolution in rural development. To this end, the use of managed aquifer recharge (MAR), coupled with other forms of rainwater harvesting, can also locally conserve and augment groundwater resources and offer obvious advantages over building surface water storage.

The large sedimentary aquifers of Africa contain some 0.66 million km³ in storage (MacDonald et al 2012); but most of this water (0.44 M km³) is contained beneath eight Saharan countries (see table 1, MacDonald et al 2012). This includes the Nubian Sandstone aquifer system, underlying Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad. In Libya this immense high yielding aquifer may be over 2.5 km thick (Pallas 1980) but considerable depths to the water table make for costly development. Water in Libya is currently being extracted (mined) from remote inland areas for transmission to the coast, from wells typically 300–500 m deep with estimated well-field lifetimes unlikely to exceed 50 years (Pallas and Salem 2001). This and the other Saharan aquifers are accessible only to a very small fraction of the African population. Groundwater extraction and transmission is possible only with the energy provided from the proximity of fossil fuels; large water transfer schemes are energy intensive and for most areas of Africa not an economic option, having also social and ecological consequences (Matete and Hassan 2005). Moreover a steady decline in water tables (typically from 0.5 to 2 m yr) has been taking place widely in semi-arid areas globally, mostly due to abstraction exceeding recharge, with consequences for both human requirements and ecosystems.

Thus a major limiting factor is the need to identify whether the stored groundwater is a renewable or a non-renewable resource. In the case of deep basins such as the Saharan aquifers this water can be shown, from numerous studies, to be almost entirely non-renewable, 'fossil' water, recharged under wetter early Holocene or late Pleistocene climates, prior to onset of a more arid climate around 4500 years BP (Edmunds et al 2004). Small amounts of modern recharge (for example in the Atlas Mountains or Tibesti) are insufficient to have an impact on the drawdown of distant well fields. It is critical, therefore, to base resource estimates for any development on knowledge of the locally renewable amounts from rainfall and to consider mining palaeo-reserves only as a last resort. Hydrogeological techniques are available to quantify modern recharge (Scanlon and Cook 2002, Scanlon et al 2006) and rates can vary widely according to rock type and landscape; reliance on modelled estimates alone could be misleading.

Water quality is also a limiting factor in quantifying usable fresh groundwater storage. In addition to the regional or local problems caused by fluoride, in areas of East and West Africa (MacDonald et al 2012), salinity, above all, will restrict the total usable storage for domestic use and food production, most notably in semi-arid or arid areas. Groundwater salinity arises from various sources, including lithologies containing evaporite minerals, residual sea water (especially in continental coastal margins) and evapotranspiration. As a general rule, salinity increases with depth (older waters tend to more saline), but an additional problem arises where salinity has built up due to aridification over several millennia. Playas and sebkhats are surface expressions of this salinity accumulation from surface water or groundwater discharge, but clearance of native vegetation also increases recharge and leads to salinity increase (George et al 1997). Near-surface salt accumulation may be drawn down into cones of depression in areas of development. One of the largest artesian aquifers, the Continental Intercalaire of Algeria and Tunisia, has groundwater discharge with a salinity of 1–3 g l⁻¹, locally as high as 7 g l⁻¹ in the Tunisian Chotts (Edmunds et al 2003, Zammouri et al 2007), limiting water for irrigated agriculture. The volumes of non-saline and groundwater in the total storage therefore need to be considered as part of the storage.

References

Edmunds W M, Dodo A, Djoret D, Gasse F, Gaye C B, Goni I B, Travi Y, Zouari K and Zuppi G M 2004 Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change. The PEP-III traverse Past Climate Variability through Europe and Africa (Developments in Palaeoenvironmental Research Series) ed R W Battarbee, F Gasse and C E Stickley (Dordrecht: Kluwer) pp 279–306

Edmunds W M, Guendouz A H, Mamou A, Moulla A S, Shand P and Zouari K 2003 Groundwater evolution in the Continental Intercalaire aquifer of Southern Algeria and Tunisia: trace element and isotopic indicators Appl. Geochem.18 805–22

George R, McFarlane D and Nulsen R 1997 Salinity threatens the viability of agriculture and ecosystems in Western Australia Hydrogeol. J.5 6–21

MacDonald A M, Bonsor H C, O'Dochartaigh B E and Taylor R G 2012 Quantitative maps of groundwater resources in Africa Environ. Res. Lett.7 024009

Matete M and Hassan R 2005 Anecological economics framework for assessing environmental flows: the case of inter-basin water transfers in Lesotho Glob. Planet. Change47 193–200

Pallas P 1980 Water resources of the Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahariya The Geology of Libya vol 2, ed M J Salem and M T Busrewil (London: Academic) pp 539–94

Pallas P and Salem O 2001 Water resources utilisation and management of the Socialist People's Arab Jamahiriya Regional Aquifer Systems in Arid Zones—Managing Non-Renewable Resources (IHP-V Technical Documents in Hydrology) (Paris: UNESCO) pp 147–72

Scanlon B R and Cook P G 2002 Preface: theme issue on groundwater recharge Hydrogeol. J.10 3–4 and following papers

Scanlon B R, Keese K E, Flint A L, Flint L E, Gaye C B, Edmunds W M and Simmers I 2006 Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semi-arid and arid regions Hydrol. Process.20 3335–70

Zammouri M, Siegfried T, El-Fahem T, Kriâa S and Kinzelbach W 2007 Salinization of groundwater in the Nefzawaoases region, Tunisia: results of a regional-scale hydrogeologic approach Hydrogeol. J.15 1357–75

Most sources of atmospheric dust on Earth are located in the Northern Hemisphere. The lower dust emissions in the Southern Hemisphere in part limit the supply of micronutrients (primarily soluble iron) to the Southern Ocean, thereby constraining its productivity. Climate and land use change can alter the current distribution of dust source regions on Earth. Can new dust sources be activated in the Southern Hemisphere? Here we show that vegetation loss and dune remobilization in the Southern Kalahari can promote dust emissions comparable to those observed from major contemporary dust sources in the Southern African region. Dust generation experiments support the hypothesis that, in the Southern Kalahari, aeolian deposits that are currently mostly stabilized by savanna vegetation are capable of emitting substantial amounts of dust from interdune areas. We show that dust from these areas is relatively rich in soluble iron, an important micronutrient for ocean productivity. Trajectory analyses show that dust from the Kalahari commonly reaches the Southern Ocean and could therefore enhance its productivity.

Unknowns in future global warming are usually assumed to arise from uncertainties either in the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or in the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Characterizing the additional uncertainty in relating CO₂ emissions to atmospheric concentrations has relied on either a small number of complex models with diversity in process representations, or simple models. To date, these models indicate that the relevant carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than the uncertainties in physical climate feedbacks and emissions. Here, for a single emissions scenario, we use a full coupled climate–carbon cycle model and a systematic method to explore uncertainties in the land carbon cycle feedback. We find a plausible range of climate–carbon cycle feedbacks significantly larger than previously estimated. Indeed the range of CO₂ concentrations arising from our single emissions scenario is greater than that previously estimated across the full range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios with carbon cycle uncertainties ignored. The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature emerges as the most important uncertainty. This highlights an aspect of current land carbon modelling where there are open questions about the potential role of plant acclimation to increasing temperatures. There is an urgent need for better understanding of plant photosynthetic responses to high temperature, as these responses are shown here to be key contributors to the magnitude of future change.

Natural and anthropogenic aerosols over northern India play an important role in influencing the regional radiation budget, causing climate implications to the overall hydrological cycle of South Asia. In the context of regional climate change and air quality, we discuss aerosol loading variability and trends at Kanpur AERONET station located in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), during the last decade (2001–10). Ground-based radiometric measurements show an overall increase in column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) on a yearly basis. This upward trend is mainly due to a sustained increase in the seasonal/monthly averaged AOD during the winter (Dec–Feb) and post-monsoon (Oct–Nov) seasons (dominated by anthropogenic emissions). In contrast, a neutral to weak declining trend is observed during late pre-monsoon (Mar–May) and monsoon (Jun–Sep) months, mainly influenced by inter-annual variations of dust outbreaks. A general decrease in coarse-mode aerosols associated with variable dust activity is observed, whereas the statistically significant increasing post-monsoon/winter AOD is reflected in a shift of the columnar size distribution towards relatively larger particles in the accumulation mode. Overall, the present study provides an insight into the pronounced seasonal behavior in aerosol loading trends and, in general, is in agreement with that associating the findings with those recently reported by satellite observations (MODIS and MISR) over northern India. Our results further suggest that anthropogenic emissions (due mainly to fossil-fuel and biomass combustion) over the IGP have continued to increase in the last decade.

Solar reflective urban surfaces (white rooftops and light-colored pavements) can increase the albedo of an urban area by about 0.1. Increasing the albedo of urban and human settlement areas can in turn decrease atmospheric temperature and could potentially offset some of the anticipated temperature increase caused by global warming. We have simulated the long-term (decadal to centennial) effect of increasing urban surface albedos using a spatially explicit global climate model of intermediate complexity. We first carried out two sets of simulations in which we increased the albedo of all land areas between ±20° and ±45° latitude respectively. The results of these simulations indicate a long-term global cooling effect of 3 × 10⁻¹⁵ K for each 1 m² of a surface with an albedo increase of 0.01. This temperature reduction corresponds to an equivalent CO₂ emission reduction of about 7 kg, based on recent estimates of the amount of global warming per unit CO₂ emission. In a series of additional simulations, we increased the albedo of urban locations only, on the basis of two independent estimates of the spatial extent of urban areas. In these simulations, global cooling ranged from 0.01 to 0.07 K, which corresponds to a CO₂ equivalent emission reduction of 25–150 billion tonnes of CO₂.

The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N₂O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N₂O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N₂O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

Global seagrass habitats are threatened by multiple anthropogenic factors. Effective management of seagrasses requires information on the relative impacts of threats; however, this information is rarely available. Our goal was to use the knowledge of experts to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic activities in six global seagrass bioregions. The activities that threaten seagrasses were identified at an international seagrass workshop and followed with a web-based survey to collect seagrass vulnerability information. There was a global consensus that urban/industrial runoff, urban/port infrastructure development, agricultural runoff and dredging had the greatest impact on seagrasses, though the order of relative impacts varied by bioregion. These activities are largely terrestrially based, highlighting the need for marine planning initiatives to be co-ordinated with adjacent watershed planning. Sea level rise and increases in the severity of cyclones were ranked highest relative to other climate change related activities, but overall the five climate change activities were ranked low and experts were uncertain of their effects on seagrasses. The experts' preferred mechanism of delivering management outcomes were processes such as policy development, planning and consultation rather than prescriptive management tools. Our approach to collecting expert opinion provides the required data to prioritize seagrass management actions at bioregional scales.

Both centralized and decentralized wastewater systems have distinct engineering, financial and societal benefits. This paper presents a framework for analyzing the environmental effects of decentralized wastewater systems and an evaluation of the environmental impacts associated with two currently operating systems in California, one centralized and one decentralized. A comparison of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and criteria air pollutants from the systems shows that the scale economies of the centralized plant help lower the environmental burden to less than a fifth of that of the decentralized utility for the same volume treated. The energy and emission burdens of the decentralized plant are reduced when accounting for high-yield wastewater reuse if it supplants an energy-intensive water supply like a desalination one. The centralized facility also reduces greenhouse gases by flaring methane generated during the treatment process, while methane is directly emitted from the decentralized system. The results are compelling enough to indicate that the life-cycle environmental impacts of decentralized designs should be carefully evaluated as part of the design process.

In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010–11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m³ s⁻¹) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m³ s⁻¹) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010–11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

In Africa, groundwater is the major source of drinking water and its use for irrigation is forecast to increase substantially to combat growing food insecurity. Despite this, there is little quantitative information on groundwater resources in Africa, and groundwater storage is consequently omitted from assessments of freshwater availability. Here we present the first quantitative continent-wide maps of aquifer storage and potential borehole yields in Africa based on an extensive review of available maps, publications and data. We estimate total groundwater storage in Africa to be 0.66 million km³ (0.36–1.75 million km³). Not all of this groundwater storage is available for abstraction, but the estimated volume is more than 100 times estimates of annual renewable freshwater resources on Africa. Groundwater resources are unevenly distributed: the largest groundwater volumes are found in the large sedimentary aquifers in the North African countries Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan. Nevertheless, for many African countries appropriately sited and constructed boreholes can support handpump abstraction (yields of 0.1–0.3 l s⁻¹), and contain sufficient storage to sustain abstraction through inter-annual variations in recharge. The maps show further that the potential for higher yielding boreholes ( > 5 l s⁻¹) is much more limited. Therefore, strategies for increasing irrigation or supplying water to rapidly urbanizing cities that are predicated on the widespread drilling of high yielding boreholes are likely to be unsuccessful. As groundwater is the largest and most widely distributed store of freshwater in Africa, the quantitative maps are intended to lead to more realistic assessments of water security and water stress, and to promote a more quantitative approach to mapping of groundwater resources at national and regional level.

The effects of biological heating on upper ocean temperatures in the southern tropical Indian Ocean region during the boreal summer were investigated by comparing the results of two modeling experiments using a solar radiation penetration scheme with and without chlorophyll effects. During the southeastern monsoon season, an increase in the chlorophyll concentration leads to cold anomalies off Java but warm anomalies off Sumatra. This contradictory effect is primarily caused by the difference in the barrier layer (BL) thickness in the two regions. Although the increasing phytoplankton tends to warm the surface and cool the subsurface in both regions, the existence of a thick BL in the region off Sumatra prevents cold anomalies from reaching the surface mixed layer (ML), whereas the thin BL off Java is favorable for the upwelling of cold subsurface anomalies into the surface ML, nullifying the warming effect of the increasing chlorophyll concentration.

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.

There are several reasons to strengthen the cooperation between the integrated assessment (IA) and earth system (ES) modeling teams in order to better understand the joint development of environmental and human systems. This cooperation can take many different forms, ranging from information exchange between research communities to fully coupled modeling approaches. Here, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and try to establish some guidelines for their applicability, based mainly on the type of interaction between the model components (including the role of feedback), possibilities for simplification and the importance of uncertainty. We also discuss several important areas of joint IA–ES research, such as land use/land cover dynamics and the interaction between climate change and air pollution, and indicate the type of collaboration that seems to be most appropriate in each case. We find that full coupling of IA–ES models might not always be the most desirable form of cooperation, since in some cases the direct feedbacks between IA and ES may be too weak or subject to considerable process or scenario uncertainty. However, when local processes are important, it could be important to consider full integration. By encouraging cooperation between the IA and ES communities in the future more consistent insights can be developed.

We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO₂ concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, others exhibit a time lag relative to the change in CO₂. Most quantities also exhibit a lag relative to the global-mean surface temperature change, which can be described as a hysteresis behaviour. The most surprising responses are from low-level clouds and ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean, which both exhibit hysteresis on timescales longer than expected. We see no evidence of critical thresholds in these simulations, although some of the hysteresis phenomena become more apparent above 2 × CO₂ or 3 × CO₂. Our findings have implications for the parametrization of climate impacts in integrated assessment and simple climate models and for future climate studies of geoengineering scenarios.

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

The reliability of tropical cyclone intensity estimates for the western North Pacific is assessed in the context of wind–pressure relationships. Four best-track datasets compiled in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are compared to assess the data consistency. Over the past 20 yr period (1991–2010), apparent interagency discrepancies in the archived tropical cyclone intensities are found. Heavy reliance upon operational wind–pressure relationships may reduce subjective biases at the cost of potential loss of tropical cyclone natural variability. Given that the intercomparisons are performed based upon a set of identical tropical cyclones, the differences in operational wind–pressure relationships and in the mapping of satellite tropical cyclone intensity classification for these relationships are presumably critical causes of the interagency discrepancies. This result calls for imperative refinement of current satellite-based tropical cyclone intensity estimates and reanalysis of historical tropical cyclone best-track archives for the basin.

Wheat yields have increased approximately linearly since the mid-twentieth century across the globe, but stagnation of these trends has now been suggested for several nations. We present a new statistical test for whether a yield time series has leveled off and apply it to wheat yield data from 47 different regions to show that nearly half of the production within our sample has transitioned to level trajectories. With the major exception of India, the majority of leveling in wheat yields occurs within developed nations—including the United Kingdom, France and Germany—whose policies appear to have disincentivized yield increases relative to other objectives. The effects of climate change and of yields nearing their maximum potential may also be important.

This letter assesses the quality of temperature and rainfall daily retrievals of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) with respect to measurements collected locally in various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region in the framework of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The ECA&D, among other gridded datasets, is very often used as a reference for model calibration and evaluation. This is for instance the case in the context of the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and its Mediterranean declination MED-CORDEX. This letter quantifies ECA&D dataset uncertainties associated with temperature and precipitation intra-seasonal variability, seasonal distribution and extremes. Our motivation is to help the interpretation of the results when validating or calibrating downscaling models by the ECA&D dataset in the context of regional climate research in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

This work investigates variations in satellite-measured greenness of Amazon forests using ten years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. Corruption of optical remote sensing data with clouds and aerosols is prevalent in this region; filtering corrupted data causes spatial sampling constraints, as well as reducing the record length, which introduces large biases in estimates of greenness anomalies. The EVI data, analyzed in multiple ways and taking into account EVI accuracy, consistently show a pattern of negligible changes in the greenness levels of forests both in the area affected by drought in 2005 and outside it. Small random patches of anomalous greening and browning—especially prominent in 2009—appear in all ten years, irrespective of contemporaneous variations in precipitation, but with no persistence over time. The fact that over 90% of the EVI anomalies are insignificantly small—within the envelope of error (95% confidence interval) in EVI—warrants cautious interpretation of these results: there were no changes in the greenness of these forests, or if there were changes, the EVI data failed to capture these either because the constituent reflectances were saturated or the moderate resolution precluded viewing small-scale variations. This suggests a need for more accurate and spatially resolved synoptic views from satellite data and corroborating comprehensive ground sampling to understand the greenness dynamics of these forests.

This study examines the 1911–2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world's greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC's interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year's sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

The numbers of fires detected on forest, savanna and transition lands during the 2002–10 biomass burning seasons in Amazonia are shown using fire count data and co-located land cover classifications from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The ratio of forest fires to savanna fires has varied substantially over the study period, with a maximum ratio of 0.65:1 in 2005 and a minimum ratio of 0.27:1 in 2009, with the four lowest years occurring in 2007–10. The burning during the droughts of 2007 and 2010 is attributed to a higher number of savanna fires relative to the drought of 2005. A decrease in the regional mean single scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosols, consistent with the shift from forest to savanna burning, is also shown. During the severe drought of 2010, forest fire detections were lower in many areas compared with 2005, even though the drought was more severe in 2010. This result suggests that improved fire management practices, including stricter burning regulations as well as lower deforestation burning, may have reduced forest fires in 2010 relative to 2005 in some areas of the Amazon Basin.

Institutional settings play a key role in shaping land cover and land use. Our goal was to understand the effects of institutional changes on agricultural land abandonment in different countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after the collapse of socialism. We studied ∼273 800 km² (eight Landsat footprints) within one agro-ecological zone stretching across Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania and European Russia. Multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM +  satellite images centered on 1990 (the end of socialism) and 2000 (one decade after the end of socialism) were used to classify agricultural land abandonment using support vector machines. The results revealed marked differences in the abandonment rates between countries. The highest rates of land abandonment were observed in Latvia (42% of all agricultural land in 1990 was abandoned by 2000), followed by Russia (31%), Lithuania (28%), Poland (14%) and Belarus (13%). Cross-border comparisons revealed striking differences; for example, in the Belarus–Russia cross-border area there was a great difference between the rates of abandonment of the two countries (10% versus 47% of abandonment). Our results highlight the importance of institutions and policies for land-use trajectories and demonstrate that radically different combinations of institutional change of strong institutions during the transition can reduce the rate of agricultural land abandonment (e.g., in Belarus and in Poland). Inversely, our results demonstrate higher abandonment rates for countries where the institutions that regulate land use changed and where the institutions took more time to establish (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania and Russia). Better knowledge regarding the effects of such broad-scale change is essential for understanding land-use change and for designing effective land-use policies. This information is particularly relevant for Northern Eurasia, where rapid land-use change offers vast opportunities for carbon balance and biodiversity, and for increasing agricultural production on previously cultivated lands.

This paper demonstrates the potential of using Web search volumes for generating crop specific planting and harvesting dates in the USA integrating climatic, social and technological factors affecting crop calendars. Using Google Insights for Search, clear peaks in volume occur at times of planting and harvest at the national level, which were used to derive corn specific planting and harvesting dates at a weekly resolution. Disaggregated to state level, search volumes for corn planting generally are in agreement with planting dates from a global crop calendar dataset. However, harvest dates were less discriminatory at the state level, indicating that peaks in search volume may be blurred by broader searches on harvest as a time of cultural events. The timing of other agricultural activities such as purchase of seed and response to weed and pest infestation was also investigated. These results highlight the future potential of using Web search data to derive planting dates in countries where the data are sparse or unreliable, once sufficient search volumes are realized, as well as the potential for monitoring in real time the response of farmers to climate change over the coming decades. Other potential applications of search volume data of relevance to agronomy are also discussed.

We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO₂-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.

The state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, has experienced rapid land use changes from the expansion of rain-fed agriculture (primarily soybean and pasture). This study presents changes to evapotranspiration contributions from terrestrial ecosystems in Mato Grosso over the 2000–9 period. Instead of focusing on land use change to infer hydrologic change, in this paper we assess hydrologic changes using remote sensing, meteorological and agricultural production data to determine the rainforest, crop and pasture components of total evapotranspiration. Humid tropical rainforest evapotranspiration represented half of the state's total evapotranspiration in 2000 despite occupying only 40% of the total land area. Annual evapotranspiration fluxes from rainforest declined at a rate of 16.2 km³ y⁻¹ (R² = 0.82, p-value  < 0.01) as a result of deforestation between 2000 and 2009, representing a 25% decline in rainforest evapotranspiration since 2000. By 2009, rainforest cover accounted for only 40% of total evapotranspiration. Over the same period, crop evapotranspiration doubled, but this increase was offset by a decline in pasture evapotranspiration. Pasture fluxes were at least five times larger than crop evapotranspiration fluxes in 2000–9, with increases spatially focused at the agricultural frontier. The results highlight the expanding appropriation of soil moisture stocks for use in Mato Grosso's rain-fed agroecosystems.

Precise and accurate estimates of silicate mineral weathering rates are crucial when setting policy targets for long-term forest sustainability, critical load calculations and assessing consequences of proposed geo-engineering solutions to climate change. In this paper, we scrutinize 394 individual silicate mineral weathering estimates from 82 sites on three continents. We show that within-site differences of several hundred per cent arise when different methods are used to estimate weathering rates, mainly as a result of uncertainties related to input data rather than conceptually different views of the weathering process. While different methods tend to rank sites congruently from high to low weathering rates, large within-site differences in estimated weathering rate suggest that policies relying on quantitative estimates based upon a single method may have undesirable outcomes. We recommend the use of at least three independent estimates when making management decisions related to silicate mineral weathering rates.

Highly productive tropical seagrasses often live adjacent to or among coral reefs and utilize large amounts of inorganic carbon. In this study, the effect of seagrass productivity on seawater carbonate chemistry and coral calcification was modelled on the basis of an analysis of published data.

Published data (11 studies, 64 records) reveal that seagrass meadows in the Indo-Pacific have an 83% chance of being net autotrophic, resulting in an average net sink of 155 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹. The capacities for seagrass productivity were analysed using an empirical model to examine the effect on seawater carbonate chemistry. Our analyses indicate that increases in pH of up to 0.38 units, and Ω_arag increases of 2.9 are possible in the presence of seagrass meadows (compared to their absence) with the precise values of these increases dependent on water residence time (tidal flushing) and water depth. In shallow water reef environments, Scleractinian coral calcification downstream of seagrass has the potential to be ≈18% greater than in an environment without seagrass. If this potential benefit to reef calcifiers is supported by further study it offers a potential tool in marine park management at a local scale. The applicability of this will depend upon local physical conditions as well as the spatial configuration of habitats, and the factors that influence their productivity. This novel study suggests that, in addition to their importance to fisheries, sediment stabilization and primary production, seagrass meadows may enhance coral reef resilience to future ocean acidification.

Bacterial community structure and the effects of environmental factors on the microbial community distribution were investigated in the Changjiang Estuary hypoxia area and its adjacent area in the East China Sea (ECS) in June, August and October, 2006. Profiles of bacterial communities were generated by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of 16S rRNA genes followed by DNA sequence analysis. The dominant bacterial groups were affiliated to Gammaproteobacteria, Cytophaga–Flavobacteria–Bacteroides (CFB), Deltaproteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Firmicutes, which were mostly from the marine seawater ecosystem. Effects of environmental factors on the bacterial community distribution were analyzed by the ordination technique of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The environmental factors significantly influencing bacterial community structure were different in the three months; dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and temperature in June and nitrite in August. No environmental variables displayed significant influence on the bacterial community at the 5% level in October. The seasonal environmental heterogeneity in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent ECS, such as seasonal hydrodynamic conditions and riverine input of nutrients, might be the reason for the difference in the key environmental factors determining the bacterial community in the three months.

This study quantifies the effect of precipitation bias corrections on basin water balance calculations for the Yellow River Source region (YRS). We analyse long-term (1959–2001) monthly and yearly data of precipitation, runoff, and ERA-40 water budget variables and define a water balance regime. Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are high in summer and low in winter. The basin water storage change is positive in summer and negative in winter. Monthly precipitation bias corrections, ranging from 2 to 16 mm, do not significantly alter the pattern of the seasonal water budget. The annual bias correction of precipitation is about 98 mm (19%); this increase leads to the same amount of evapotranspiration increase, since yearly runoff remains unchanged and the long-term storage change is assumed to be zero. Annual runoff and evapotranspiration coefficients change, due to precipitation bias corrections, from 0.33 and 0.67 to 0.28 and 0.72, respectively. These changes will impact the parameterization and calibration of land surface and hydrological models. The bias corrections of precipitation data also improve the relationship between annual precipitation and runoff.

This study systematically evaluates simulations of near-surface temperature and precipitation using the station observations collected in the semi-arid region of China during the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) from October 2002 to December 2004 (EOP3 and EOP4). The outputs being evaluated are from eight general circulation models (GCMs) archived by the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP), as well as a multi-model ensemble based on these eight models. We find that the multi-model ensemble has a better performance than most of the individual models. Our results show that all individual models and the Model Analysis Comparison (MAC) ensemble mean perform much better when simulating regionally averaged temperature than precipitation. For most models, a systematically low bias is identified in the regionally averaged simulated temperatures, while a high bias exists in the simulated precipitation except in summer. For the simulated temperatures, the lowest and largest rRMSE are found in JMA and BMRC, respectively. Furthermore, temperature is always overestimated when it is between  − 18 and  − 10 °C, while the temperature is underestimated when it is greater than 6 °C; the best performance lies between  − 10 and 2 °C for all the models except BMRC. For the simulated precipitation, excessive rainfall is reproduced at all intervals except in ECPC-SFM, and the largest deviation is identified at the interval of 2–5 mm with a bias of 18.3%. With respect to sub-regions, the simulated temperatures are better in eastern China, but the simulated precipitation is better in the transition zone from the semi-arid region to the arid region. However, the simulation bias increases west of 100°E, which may be associated with the complex and steep topography there. We want to stress that the MAC ensemble mean is superior to any individual models.

The 187 million hectares of pasturelands in Kazakhstan play a key role in the nation's economy, as livestock production accounted for 54% of total agricultural production in 2010. However, more than half of these lands have been degraded as a result of unregulated grazing practices. Therefore, effective long term ecological monitoring of pasturelands in Kazakhstan is imperative to ensure sustainable pastureland management. As a case study in this research, we demonstrated how the ecological conditions could be assessed with remote sensing technologies and pastureland models. The example focuses on the southern Balkhash area with study sites on a foothill plain with Artemisia-ephemeral plants and a sandy plain with psammophilic vegetation in the Turan Desert. The assessment was based on remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, a geobotanical archive and periodic ground sampling. The Pasture agrometeorological model was used to calculate biological, ecological and economic indicators to assess pastureland condition. The results showed that field surveys, meteorological observations, remote sensing and ecological models, such as Pasture, could be combined to effectively assess the ecological conditions of pasturelands and provide information about forage production that is critically important for balancing grazing and ecological conservation.

The fluorescence excitation–emission matrix (EEM) technique coupled with parallel factor (PARAFAC) modeling and measurements of bulk organic carbon and other optical properties were used to characterize the oil components released from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and to examine the chemical evolution and transformation of oil in the water column. Seawater samples were collected from the Gulf of Mexico during October 2010 and October 2011, three months and fifteen months, respectively, after the oil spill was stopped. Together with previous results from samples collected during the oil spill in May/June 2010, these time series samples allow us to elucidate changes in the optical properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the time of maximum oil impact to its recovery, 15 months after the spill. Although the oil had profoundly altered the optical properties of the DOM in the entire water column during the oil spill, naturally occurring DOM became predominant in surface waters by October 2010, three months after the spill. Anomalous DOM with high optical yields, however, still resided in deep waters even 15 months after the oil spill in October 2011, showing a persistent influence of the oil in deep waters. Based on fluorescence EEM data and PARAFAC modeling, three oil components and one natural humic-like DOM could be readily identified. The most prominent oil component had its maximum fluorescence intensity at Ex/Em 224/328 nm, and the other two centered on Ex/Em 264/324 and 232/346 nm, respectively. The humic-like DOM component had its wide emission peak from 390 to 460 nm over the excitation wavelength at ∼248 nm. We hypothesized that component-2 (264/324 nm) was mostly derived from photochemical degradation and the component-3 (232/346 nm) could be a degradation product from both microbial and photochemical degradation, although both C2 and C3 are subject to degradation at different rates. The oil component ratios, such as C2/C1 and C3/C1, were closely related to degradation states of oil and can be used as a sensitive index to track the fate, transport and transformation of oil in the water column.

Global change is expected to lead to range shifts of plant species. The ecological mechanisms underpinning these shifts are currently not well understood. Here, we compared ecological responses possibly underlying southern range contraction and northern range expansion of Empetrum nigrum, a key species in northern heathlands, which may be related to global change. We hypothesized a negative response to warming in the 'south' (i.e. the Netherlands) and a positive response at the northern range margin (the tundra on Svalbard). Open top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate global warming. In the 'south', OTC warming caused enhanced shoot growth and growth rate, biomass increment, advanced phenology, larger and heavier berries of Empetrum, while its growing season was extended by 75 days. Under OTC warming co-occurring Calluna vulgaris also showed an increased growing season length (by 98 days) as well as increased shoot growth rate and biomass growth, plant cover and height. Still, we found no evidence for increased competitiveness relative to Empetrum. In the 'north', Empetrum responded with increased shoot and biomass growth, enhanced berry development and ripening to warming. These responses exceeded those of co-occurring Cassiope tetragona with the exception of its biomass response. The direct and indirect ecological responses found do not readily explain the observed northward retreat of Empetrum at the southern range margin. The direct ecological responses found at its northern range margin are, on the other hand, in line with the increased occurrences of this species on Svalbard.

Analysis of time series imagery from satellite and aircraft platforms is useful for detecting land cover change at plot to regional scales. In this study, we created multi-temporal high spatial resolution land cover maps for seven locations in the Beringian Arctic and assessed the change in land cover over time. Land cover classifications were site specific and mostly aligned with a soil moisture gradient. Time series varied between 60 and 21 years. Four of the five landscapes studied in Alaska underwent an expansion of drier land cover classes while the two landscapes studies in Chukotka, Russia showed an expansion of wetter land cover types. While a range of land cover types was present across the landscapes studied, the extent of shrubs (in Chukotka) and open water (in Alaska) increased in all landscapes where these land cover types were present. The results support trends documented for regional change in NDVI (a measure of vegetation greenness and productivity) as well as a host of other long term, experimental and modeling studies. Using historic change trends for each land cover type at each landscape, we use a simple probabilistic vegetation model to establish hypotheses of future change trajectories for different land cover types at each of the landscapes investigated. This study is a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF).

This paper proposes frameworks to analyze the gender dimensions of climate change-induced migration. The experiences, needs and priorities of climate migrants will vary by gender and these differences need to be accounted for if policies are to be inclusive. Among the vulnerable groups, women are likely to be disproportionately affected due to climate change because on average women tend to be poorer, less educated, have a lower health status and have limited direct access to or ownership of natural resources. Both the process (actual movement) and the outcomes (rural–rural or rural–urban migration, out-migration mainly of men) of climate change-induced migration are also likely to be highly gendered.

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