Table of contents

The renewed growth in atmospheric methane (CH₄) since 2007 after a decade of stabilization has drawn much attention to its causes and future trends. Wetlands are the single largest source of atmospheric CH₄. Understanding wetland ecosystems and carbon dynamics is critical to the estimation of global CH₄ and carbon budgets. After approximately 7 years of CH₄ related research following the renewed growth in atmospheric CH₄, Environmental Research Letters launched a special issue of research letters on wetland ecosystems and carbon dynamics in 2014. This special issue highlights recent developments in terrestrial ecosystem models and field measurements of carbon fluxes across different types of wetland ecosystems. The 14 research letters emphasize the importance of wetland ecosystems in the global CO₂ and CH₄ budget.

Background. There has been sustained and growing interest in characterizing the net energy impact of information and communication technology (ICT), which results from indirect effects offsetting (or amplifying) the energy directly consumed by ICT equipment. These indirect effects may be either positive or negative, and there is considerable disagreement as to the direction of this sign as well as the effect magnitude. Literature in this area ranges from studies focused on a single service (such as e-commerce versus traditional retail) to macroeconomic studies attempting to characterize the overall impact of ICT. Methods. We review the literature on the indirect energy effect of ICT found via Google Scholar, our own research, and input from other researchers in the field. The various studies are linked to an effect taxonomy, which is synthesized from several different hierarchies present in the literature. References are further grouped according to ICT service (e.g., e-commerce, telework) and summarized by scope, method, and quantitative and qualitative findings. Review results. Uncertainty persists in understanding the net energy effects of ICT. Results of indirect energy effect studies are highly sensitive to scoping decisions and assumptions made by the analyst. Uncertainty increases as the impact scope broadens, due to complex and interconnected effects. However, there is general agreement that ICT has large energy savings potential, but that the realization of this potential is highly dependent on deployment details and user behavior. Discussion. While the overall net effect of ICT is likely to remain unknown, this review suggests several guidelines for improving research quality in this area, including increased data collection, enhancing traditional modeling studies with sensitivity analysis, greater care in scoping, less confidence in characterizing aggregate impacts, more effort on understanding user behavior, and more contextual integration across the different levels of the effect taxonomy.

Under the Paris Agreement, parties set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change. International carbon emissions trading is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here, we show the benefit of emissions trading under both NDCs and a more ambitious reduction scenario consistent with the 2 °C goal. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 75% (from 0.47% to 0.16%), as a consequence of achieving NDCs through emissions trading. Furthermore, achieving the 2 °C targets without emissions trading led to a global welfare loss of 1.4%–3.4%, depending on the burden-sharing scheme used, whereas emissions trading reduced the loss to around 1.5% (from 1.4% to 1.7%). These results indicate that emissions trading is a valuable option for the international system, enabling NDCs and more ambitious targets to be achieved in a cost-effective manner.

We study the effect of a realistic ice sheet freshwater forcing on sea-level change in the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) showing not only the effect on the ocean density and dynamics, but also the gravitational response to mass redistribution between ice sheets and the ocean. We compare the 'standard' model simulation (NO-FW) to a simulation with a more realistic ice sheet freshwater forcing (FW) for two different forcing scenario's (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for 1850–2100. The effect on the global mean thermosteric sea-level change is small compared to the total thermosteric change, but on a regional scale the ocean steric/dynamic change shows larger differences in the Southern Ocean, the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean (locally over 0.1 m). The gravitational fingerprints of the net sea-level contributions of the ice sheets are computed separately, showing a regional pattern with a magnitude that is similar to the difference between the NO-FW and FW simulations of the ocean steric/dynamic pattern. Our results demonstrate the importance of ice sheet mass loss for regional sea-level projections in light of the projected increasing contribution of ice sheets to future sea-level rise.

Fire activity in Indonesia is strongly linked with El Niño events, whose sea surface temperature (SST) patterns can weaken the Walker circulation to induce drought conditions in the region. Here we show via case analyses and idealized climate model simulations that it is the central location of the SST anomalies associated with El Niño, rather than its strength, that is mostly linked with the fire occurrence. During our study period of 1997–2015, Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events produced the largest fire events in southern Borneo (i.e., in 1997, 2006, and 2015), while Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events consistently produced minor fire events. The EP El Niño is found to be more capable than the CP El Niño of weakening the Walker circulation that acts to prolong Borneo's drought condition from September to October. The extended dry conditions in October potentially increase the occurrence of fires during EP El Niño years. The 2015 fire event owes its occurrence to the location of the 2015 El Niño but not necessarily its 'Godzilla' strength in affecting the fire episodes over southern Borneo. Projecting the location of El Niño events might be more important than projecting their strength for fire management in southern Borneo.

The water demands of power plant cooling systems may strain water supply and make power generation vulnerable to water scarcity. Cooling systems range in their rates of water use, capital investment, and annual costs. Using Texas as a case study, we examined the cost of retrofitting existing coal and natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plants with alternative cooling systems, either wet recirculating towers or air-cooled condensers for dry cooling. We applied a power plant assessment tool to model existing power plants in terms of their key plant attributes and site-specific meteorological conditions and then estimated operation characteristics of retrofitted plants and retrofit costs. We determined the anticipated annual reductions in water withdrawals and the cost-per-gallon of water saved by retrofits in both deterministic and probabilistic forms. The results demonstrate that replacing once-through cooling at coal-fired power plants with wet recirculating towers has the lowest cost per reduced water withdrawals, on average. The average marginal cost of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling retrofits at coal-fired plants is approximately 0.68 cents per gallon, while the marginal recirculating retrofit cost is 0.008 cents per gallon. For NGCC plants, the average marginal costs of water withdrawal savings for dry-cooling and recirculating towers are 1.78 and 0.037 cents per gallon, respectively.

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Satellite-observed Earth's greening has been reproduced by the latest generation of Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Land evapotranspiration (ET) is expected to rise with increasing leaf area index (LAI, Earth's greening). The responses of ET play a key role in the land–climate interaction, but they have not been evaluated previously. Here, we assessed the responses of ET to Earth's greening in these CMIP5 ESMs. We verified a significant and positive response of ET to the modeled greening in each model. However, the responses were not comparable across the ESMs because of an inherent bias in the sensitivity of ET to LAI $(\partial {\rm{E}}{\rm{T}}/\partial {\rm{L}}{\rm{A}}{\rm{I}})$ in the models: $\partial {\rm{E}}{\rm{T}}/\partial {\rm{L}}{\rm{A}}{\rm{I}}$ is precisely and inversely proportional to the trend of LAI $(\partial {\rm{L}}{\rm{A}}{\rm{I}}/\partial t)$ across the ESMs. Constrained by this inversely proportional relationship with the satellite-observed $\partial {\rm{L}}{\rm{A}}{\rm{I}}/\partial t,$ the Earth's $\partial {\rm{E}}{\rm{T}}/\partial {\rm{\text{LAI}}}$ is 0.26 (0.21–0.34) mm d⁻¹ per m² m⁻², equaling the independent estimates from satellite-derived reconstructions of ET and LAI. Thus, the Earth's greening-induced acceleration of ET is about 11.4 mm yr⁻¹, accounting for more than 50% of the observed increase in land ET over the last 30 years. To better model the land–climate interaction, $\partial {\rm{E}}{\rm{T}}/\partial {\rm{L}}{\rm{A}}{\rm{I}}$ in these ESMs should be calibrated. A feasible means is to improve the representation of the magnitude of LAI in these CMIP5 ESMs.

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations  drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

The Taj Mahal—an iconic World Heritage monument built of white marble—has become discolored with time, due, in part, to high levels of particulate matter (PM) soiling its surface (Bergin et al 2015 Environ. Sci. Technol.49 808–812). Such discoloration has required extensive and costly treatment (2015 Two Hundred Sixty Second Report on Effects of Pollution on Taj Parliament of India Rajya Sabha, New Delhi) and despite previous interventions to reduce pollution in its vicinity, the haze and darkening persists (Bergin et al 2015 Environ. Sci. Technol.49 808–812; 2015 Two Hundred Sixty Second Report on Effects of Pollution on Taj Parliament of India Rajya Sabha, New Delhi). PM responsible for the soiling has been attributed to a variety of sources including industrial emissions, vehicular exhaust and biomass burning, but the contribution of the emissions from the burning of open municipal solid waste (MSW) may also play an important role. A recent source apportionment study of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) at the Taj Mahal showed biomass burning emissions, which would include MSW emissions, accounted for nearly 40% of organic matter (OM)—a component of PM—deposition to its surface (Bergin et al 2015 Environ. Sci. Technol.49 808–812); dung cake burning, used extensively for cooking in the region, was the suggested culprit and banned within the city limits (2015 Two Hundred Sixty Second Report on Effects of Pollution on Taj Parliament of India Rajya Sabha, New Delhi), although the burning of MSW, a ubiquitous practice in the area (Nagpure et al 2015 Environ. Sci. Technol.49 12904–12), may play a more important role in local air quality. Using spatially detailed emission estimates and air quality modeling, we find that open MSW burning leads to about 150 (±130) mg m⁻² yr⁻¹ of PM_2.5 being deposited to the surface of the Taj Mahal compared to about 12 (±3.2) mg m⁻² yr⁻¹ from dung cake burning. Those two sources, combined, also lead to an estimated 713 (377–1050) premature mortalities in Agra each year, dominated by waste burning in socioeconomically lower status neighborhoods. An effective MSW management strategy would reduce soiling of the Taj Mahal, improve human health, and have additional aesthetic benefits.

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Worldwide riverine thermal pollution patterns were investigated by combining mean annual heat rejection rates from power plants with once-through cooling systems with the global hydrological-water temperature model variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-RBM. The model simulates both streamflow and water temperature on 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution worldwide and by capturing their effect, identifies multiple thermal pollution hotspots. The Mississippi receives the highest total amount of heat emissions (62% and 28% of which come from coal-fuelled and nuclear power plants, respectively) and presents the highest number of instances where the commonly set 3 °C temperature increase limit is equalled or exceeded. The Rhine receives 20% of the thermal emissions compared to the Mississippi (predominantly due to nuclear power plants), but is the thermally most polluted basin in relation to the total flow per watershed, with one third of its total flow experiencing a temperature increase ≥5 °C on average over the year. In other smaller basins in Europe, such as the Weser and the Po, the share of the total streamflow with a temperature increase ≥3 °C goes up to 49% and 81%, respectively, during July–September. As the first global analysis of its kind, this work points towards areas of high riverine thermal pollution, where temporally finer thermal emission data could be coupled with a spatially finer model to better investigate water temperature increase and its effect on aquatic ecosystems.

Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ∼3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ∼8 times greater than observed and twice as intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.

We have developed an analytic platform to analyze the electricity options, costs, and impacts for Kosovo, a nation that is a critical part of the debate over centralized versus distributed electricity generation and the role of fossil fuels versus cleaner electricity options to meet growing demands for power. We find that a range of alternatives exists to meet present supply constraints all at a lower cost than constructing a proposed 600 MW coal plant. The options include energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, and biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. A 30 EUR ton^–1 shadow price on CO₂ increases costs of coal generation by at least 330 million EUR. The results indicate that financing a new coal plant is the most expensive pathway to meet future electricity demand.

Northern Eurasia is one of the largest terrestrial carbon reservoirs on the Earth's surface. However, since the coverage of surface CO₂ observations is still limited, the response to the climate variability remains uncertain. We estimated monthly CO₂ fluxes for three sub-regions in Northern Eurasia (north of ∼60°N), Northeastern Europe, Western Siberia and Eastern Siberia, using CO₂ retrievals from the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The variations of estimated CO₂ fluxes were examined in terms of the regional climate variability, for the three consecutive growing seasons of 2009–2011. The CO₂ fluxes estimated using GOSAT data are highly correlated with the surface temperature anomalies in July and August (r > 0.8) while no correlation is found in the CO₂ fluxes estimated only using surface observations. The estimated fluxes from GOSAT data exhibit high negative correlations with one-month lagged positive precipitation anomalies in late summer (r > −0.7) through surface temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that GOSAT data reflects the changes in terrestrial biospheric processes responding to climate anomalies. In 2010, a large part of Eurasia experienced an extremely hot and dry summer, while cold and wet weather conditions were recorded in Western Siberia. The CO₂ fluxes estimated from GOSAT data showed a reduction of net CO₂ uptake in Northeastern Europe and Eastern Siberia, but the enhancement of net CO₂ uptake in Western Siberia. These opposite sub-regional flux anomalies can be explained by the different climate anomalies on a sub-regional scale in Northern Eurasia. Thus, this study demonstrates that space-based observations by GOSAT compensate for the lack of ground-based observational coverage so as to better capture the inter-annually varying atmosphere-terrestrial biosphere CO₂ exchange on a regional scale.

Feeding a growing population while minimizing environmental degradation is a global challenge requiring thoroughly rethinking food production and consumption. Dietary choices control food availability and natural resource demands. In particular, reducing or avoiding consumption of low production efficiency animal-based products can spare resources that can then yield more food. In quantifying the potential food gains of specific dietary shifts, most earlier research focused on calories, with less attention to other important nutrients, notably protein. Moreover, despite the well-known environmental burdens of livestock, only a handful of national level feed-to-food conversion efficiency estimates of dairy, beef, poultry, pork, and eggs exist. Yet such high level estimates are essential for reducing diet related environmental impacts and identifying optimal food gain paths. Here we quantify caloric and protein conversion efficiencies for US livestock categories. We then use these efficiencies to calculate the food availability gains expected from replacing beef in the US diet with poultry, a more efficient meat, and a plant-based alternative. Averaged over all categories, caloric and protein efficiencies are 7%–8%. At 3% in both metrics, beef is by far the least efficient. We find that reallocating the agricultural land used for beef feed to poultry feed production can meet the caloric and protein demands of ≈120 and ≈140 million additional people consuming the mean American diet, respectively, roughly 40% of current US population.

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m⁻² decade⁻¹ regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m⁻² decade⁻¹ regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m⁻² decade⁻¹). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m⁻² decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m⁻² decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Satellite-aided studies of vegetation cover, biomass and productivity are becoming increasingly important for monitoring the effects of a changing climate on the biosphere. With their large spatial coverage and good temporal resolution, space-borne instruments are ideal to observe remote areas over extended time periods. However, long time series datasets with global coverage have in many cases too low spatial resolution for sparsely vegetated high latitude areas. This study has made use of a newly developed 30 year 1 km spatial resolution dataset from 1986 to 2015, provided by the NOAA AVHRR series of satellites, in order to calculate the annual maximum NDVI over parts of Svalbard (78°N). This parameter is indicative of vegetation productivity and has therefore enabled us to study long-term changes in greening within the Inner Fjord Zone on Svalbard. In addition, local meteorological data are available to link maximum NDVI values to the temporal behavior of the mean growing season (summer) temperature for the study area. Over the 30 year period, we find positive trends in both maximum NDVI (average increase of 29%) and mean summer temperature (59%), which were significantly positively correlated with each other. This suggests a temporal greening trend mediated by summer warming. However, as also recently reported for lower latitudes, the strength of the year-to-year correlation between maximum NDVI and mean summer temperature decreased, suggesting that the response of vegetation to summer warming has not remained the same over the entire study period.

Tropical dry forests are already undergoing changes in the quantity and timing of rainfall, but there is great uncertainty over how these shifts will affect belowground carbon (C) cycling. While it has long been known that dry soils quickly release carbon dioxide (CO₂) upon rewetting, the mechanisms underlying the so-called 'Birch effect' are still debated. Here, we quantified soil respiration pulses and their biotic predictors in response to simulated precipitation events in a regenerating tropical dry forest in Costa Rica. We also simulated the observed rewetting CO₂ pulses with two soil carbon models: a conventional model assuming first-order decay rates of soil organic matter, and an enzyme-catalyzed model with Michaelis–Menten kinetics. We found that rewetting of dry soils produced an immediate and dramatic pulse of CO₂, accompanied by rapid immobilization of nitrogen into the microbial biomass. However, the magnitude of the rewetting CO₂ pulse was highly variable at fine spatial scales, and was well correlated with the size of the dissolved organic C pool prior to rewetting. Both the enzyme-catalyzed and conventional models were able to reproduce the Birch effect when respiration was coupled directly to microbial C uptake, although models differed in their ability to yield realistic estimates of SOC and microbial biomass pool sizes and dynamics. Our results suggest that changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall events in tropical dry forests will exert strong influence on ecosystem C balance by affecting the dynamics of microbial biomass growth.

Accomplishing the objective of the current climate policies will require establishing carbon budget and flux estimates in each region and county of the globe by comparing and reconciling multiple estimates including the observations and the results of top-down atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) inversions and bottom-up dynamic global vegetation models. With this in view, this study synthesizes the carbon source/sink due to net ecosystem productivity (NEP), land cover land use change (E_LUC), fires and fossil burning (E_FIRE) for the South Asia (SA), Southeast Asia (SEA) and South and Southeast Asia (SSEA = SA + SEA) and each country in these regions using the multiple top-down and bottom-up modeling results. The terrestrial net biome productivity (NBP = NEP – E_LUC – E_FIRE) calculated based on bottom-up models in combination with E_FIRE based on GFED4s data show net carbon sinks of 217 ± 147, 10 ± 55, and 227 ± 279 TgC yr⁻¹ for SA, SEA, and SSEA. The top-down models estimated NBP net carbon sinks were 20 ± 170, 4 ± 90 and 24 ± 180 TgC yr⁻¹. In comparison, regional emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels were 495, 275, and 770 TgC yr⁻¹, which are many times higher than the NBP sink estimates, suggesting that the contribution of the fossil fuel emissions to the carbon budget of SSEA results in a significant net carbon source during the 2000s. When considering both NBP and fossil fuel emissions for the individual countries within the regions, Bhutan and Laos were net carbon sinks and rest of the countries were net carbon source during the 2000s. The relative contributions of each of the fluxes (NBP, NEP, E_LUC, and E_FIRE, fossil fuel emissions) to a nation's net carbon flux varied greatly from country to country, suggesting a heterogeneous dominant carbon fluxes on the country-level throughout SSEA.

Fire is a common tool for land conversion and management associated with oil palm production. Fires can cause biodiversity and carbon losses, emit pollutants that deteriorate air quality and harm human health, and damage property. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) prohibits the use of fire on certified concessions. However, efforts to suppress fires are more difficult during El Niño conditions and on peatlands. In this paper, we address the following questions for oil palm concessions developed prior to 2012 in Sumatra and Kalimantan, the leading producers of oil palm both within Indonesia and globally: (1) for the period 2012–2015, did RSPO-certified concessions have a lower density of fire detections, fire ignitions, or 'escaped' fires compared with those concessions that are not certified? and (2) did this pattern change with increasing likelihood of fires in concessions located on peatland and in dry years? These questions are particularly critical in fuel-rich peatlands, of which approximately 46% of the area was designated as oil palm concession as of 2010. We conducted propensity scoring to balance covariate distributions between certified and non-certified concessions, and we compare the density of fires in certified and non-certified concessions using Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer Active Fire Detections from 2012–2015 clustered into unique fire events. We find that fire activity is significantly lower on RSPO certified concessions than non-RSPO certified concessions when the likelihood of fire is low (i.e., on non-peatlands in wetter years), but not when the likelihood of fire is high (i.e., on non-peatlands in dry years or on peatlands). Our results provide evidence that RSPO has the potential to reduce fires, though it is currently only effective when fire likelihood is relatively low. These results imply that, in order for this mechanism to reduce fire, additional strategies will be needed to control fires in oil palm plantations in dry years and on peatlands.

The long-term future of species composition in forests depends on regeneration. Many factors can affect regeneration, including human use, environmental conditions, and species' traits. This study examines the influence of these factors in a tropical deciduous forest of Central India, which is heavily used by local, forest-dependent residents for livestock grazing, fuel-wood extraction, construction and other livelihood needs. We measure size-class proportions (the ratio of abundance of a species at a site in a higher size class to total abundance in both lower and higher size classes) for 39 tree species across 20 transects at different intensities of human use. The size-class proportions for medium to large trees and for small to medium-sized trees were negatively associated with species that are used for local construction, while size class proportions for saplings to small trees were positively associated with those species that are fire resistant and negatively associated with livestock density. Results indicate that grazing and fire prevent non-fire resistant species from reaching reproductive age, which can alter the long term composition and future availability of species that are important for local use and ecosystem services. Management efforts to reduce fire and forest grazing could reverse these impacts on long-term forest composition.