Focus on Social Resilience to Climate Changes Over the Past 5000 Years

Archaeologists and palaeoclimatologists have focused on the impact of climate on the prehistoric civilizations around the world; however, social resilience in the face of the climate change remains unclear, especially during the Neolithic and Bronze Age in the Central Plains of China (CPC). In this paper, we present palynological results from the Dahecun Core, Henan Province, China. Our pollen data indicate a warm and wet climate condition from 9200 to 4000 cal BP, which then switches to a cool and dry climatic condition during the Neolithic-Bronze Age transition (∼4000–3600 cal BP). We analyze ¹⁴C dates from archaeological sites to demonstrate four episodes of population increase and present vegetation dynamics, determined from available pollen data, to provide evidence for the synchronous shifts in vegetation and human population during the Neolithic. Our results indicate that the aridification in the early Bronze Age did not cause population collapse, highlighting the importance of social resilience to climate change. The pollen, radiocarbon dates and archaeobotanical records from the CPC provides new evidence that supports the claim that the development of agriculture and complex societies, under the stress of a dry climate, set the stage for the dramatic increase of human population around 3800–3400 cal BP.

In this investigation, we use a socio-environmental multi-proxy approach to empirically test hypotheses of recurrent resilience cycles and the role of climate forcing in shaping such cycles on the Iberian Peninsula during mid-Holocene times. Our approach combines time series reconstructions of societal and environmental variables from the southern Iberian Peninsula across a 3000 yr time interval (6000–3000 cal yr BP), covering major societal and climate reorganisation. Our approach is based on regional compilations of climate variables from diverse terrestrial archives and integrates new marine climate records from the Western Mediterranean. Archaeological variables include changes in material culture, settlement reconstructions and estimates of human activities. In particular, both detailed chronologies of human activities evolving from the Late Neolithic to the Bronze Age and mid- to Late Holocene climate change across the mid-Holocene are compared, aiming to assess potential human responses and coping processes associated with abrupt mid-Holocene climate changes.

The largest freshwater lake in China, the Poyang Lake, experienced a long history of evolution with combined influences from both climate factors and human activities. Along with the dramatic changes of water related disasters such as flood and drought, local society developed various strategies to cope with the water problems. This paper investigated the evolution of the Poyang Lake area, the flood and drought disasters, and the society resilience using statistical analysis, spatial analysis, and a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Historical data on climate, population, flood and drought, water engineering, and social economics were collected to support a detailed examination of the climate-hazard-society relationships. The results indicate that: (a) the lake area was mainly influenced by the warm and rainy climate and expanded significantly before the Yuan Dynasty (1271–1368 AD). Since the large-scale southward population migration in the Yuan Dynasty, intensive reclamation of wetlands surrounding the lake plus the effects of a colder climate shrank the lake area sharply. (b) The frequency of water-related disasters was gradually increasing during the past 2000 years, especially since 12th century, as a result of climate change and population growth. (c) Despite significant change in climate and increasing flood and drought, local people in Poyang Lake area adopted various water engineering to prevent flood and coast training measures to protect farmland, which enabled the social surviving and continuous economic development. Social resilience in Poyang Lake was highly correlated with lake changes and associated water hazards. (d) Presently, more ecological strategies have been adopted to mitigate the risk of flood and drought at the Poyang Lake area. The study emphasizes the influences of climate and water environment and the coping activities of human society, and thus contributes to a specific understanding of resilient living with big lakes.

This study adopted an empirical analysis to explore social resilience to major natural disasters along the Tea-Horse Road (THR) in southwest China and to understand why and how the THR and its connected communities maintained and developed over a long period. A set of archive data, literature re-analysis, statistical data, monitoring data, and surveyed materials were collected and qualitatively and quantitatively analysed to support a holistic investigation of disaster impacts and social resilience. The results indicate that (a) natural disasters occurred frequently but were distributed over place and time and had various impacts, which left possibilities for maintaining social development with diverse and specific coping strategies; (b) strong central and local governance continually improved infrastructure and engineering technologies, and collaboration in social networks with local experience and disaster cultures were the major contributing factors that enhanced social resilience at various levels; (c) the THR area demonstrated various features of social resilience to natural disasters in terms of spatial-temporal scales, where the combination of multiple resilience measures enabled the resilience of the entire social system at various places over long time periods. Generally, larger social systems with diverse response capabilities were more resilient than small and individual entities over a long time scale. The study highlights that the THR region withstood frequent natural disasters but maintained a general development of social economy, transportation, and advanced technologies, and performed a positive transformation to a more resilient status. Overall, this paper describes the scale effects of multiple resilience measures along the THR and calls for specific studies on social resilience and transformation of diverse social entities over multiple spatial-temporal scales.

As a typical mountain area at the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwest China, the Erhai Lake Basin has uneven precipitation (frequent droughts and floods), affected by the Southwest Monsoon in Asia and significant vertical zonal differences determined by local topography. Though with such harsh physical environment, this area sustained development in ancient times and has been considered a typical resilience case in many studies. With extensive investigation of various historical archives, this paper explores the situation and changes of water management in the Erhai Basin during the past 300 years, and aims to identify local factors in maintaining resilience to water stresses. Findings indicate that various strong and smart social regulations (governance, institutions, plans, management, motivations, orders, donations, dedication, etc.) enabled a wise development of many water conservancy projects that set up an effective irrigation system at the flat basin center. Lots of stream dams, sluice gates and terraced croplands jointly further enabled water storage, drainage and irrigation at the surrounding hillside areas. Additionally, by adopting drought-resistant and cold-resistant crops, agriculture production kept increasing and successfully fed the growing population. The complex but systematically developed river canal system, with its dams, reservoirs, and sluice gates, as well as adaptive cropping strategies, together maintained and enhanced the resilience of local communities to hydrological hazards. Over the 300 years of the study period, the changing water environment and the developing water conservancy projects showed a resilience loop, which offers a simple but valuable perspective on building human-water resilience in face of current and future water crises in this region and beyond.

This paper deals with prehistoric communities at the end of the 3rd millennium BC in Northwest Europe in relation to the 4.2 ka BP climatic event. In particular, the question of the resilience of these communities to climatic change will be studied here by comparing various climatic records and analysing specific archaeological parameters for social and cultural change. These parameters include the duration and intensity of settlement occupation, the variability of subsistence activities (e.g. cereal cultivation, animal husbandry, hunting, fishing, and gathering) and the connectedness of communities within exchange networks. Rather than answering the often-asked yes/no question with regard to human–environment relations, our research asks what effect resulted from the 4.2 ka BP climatic event, and, from the perspective of resilience, how did communities adopt to these changes in their practices and cultural choices during the later 3rd millennium BC.

In short, we maintain that climate change took place at the end of the 3rd millennium BC, but the changes in humidity and temperature with their effects on vegetation were probably regionally varied across Northwest Europe. We also observe that the studied communities developed differently during the second half of the 3rd millennium BC. On the one hand, we identify new food storage and house building techniques in the Low Countries and Schleswig-Holstein and, on the other hand, substantiate population decrease on the Orkney Islands around 2300 BC. Finally, we note a development of the Bell Beaker phenomenon into an Early Bronze Age maritory of connected communities across the North Sea, in which these communities expressed their resilience to climate change.

The development, floruit and decline of the urban phase of the Indus Civilisation (c.2600/2500-1900 BC) provide an ideal opportunity to investigate social resilience and transformation in relation to a variable climate. The Indus Civilisation extended over most of the Indus River Basin, which includes a mix of diverse environments conditioned, among other factors, by partially overlapping patterns of winter and summer precipitation. These patterns likely changed towards the end of the urban phase (4.2 ka BP event), increasing aridity. The impact of this change appears to have varied at different cities and between urban and rural contexts. We present a simulation approach using agent-based modelling to address the potential diversity of agricultural strategies adopted by Indus settlements in different socio-ecological scenarios in Haryana, NW India. This is an ongoing initiative that consists of creating a modular model, Indus Village, that assesses the implications of trends in cropping strategies for the sustainability of settlements and the resilience of such strategies under different regimes of precipitation. The model aims to simulate rural settlements structured into farming households, with sub-models representing weather and land systems, food economy, demography, and land use. This model building is being carried out as part of the multi-disciplinary TwoRains project. It brings together research on material culture, settlement distribution, food production and consumption, vegetation and paleoenvironmental conditions.

South Asia has a deep history of agriculture that includes a range of past farming systems in different climatic zones. Many of these farming systems were resilient to changes in climate and sustainable over long periods of time. India's present agricultural systems are facing serious challenges, as they have become increasingly reliant on the unsustainable extraction of groundwater for irrigation. This paper outlines an interdisciplinary framework for drawing on patterns from the past to guide interventions in the present. It compares past and present strategies for water management and use in semi-arid and temperate Punjab with equatorial Telangana. Structural differences in water use in these two regions suggest that a range of interventions should be adopted to expand the overall availability of surface water for agricultural systems in India, in combination with empowering local communities to create their own water management rules. Active interventions focus on the efficient use of water supplies, and increasing surface water availability through renovation of collective ponds and reservoirs. We argue that this conceptual framework has significant potential for guiding agronomic and economic interventions in the future.

Volcanic eruptions, climate changes and their influences on crop harvests and social development are of increasing concern in science communities. Using a dataset of crop harvest scores of southwest China from 1730 to 1910, which was derived from the memorials to the emperors in the Qing Dynasty of China, reconstructed climate proxies and the chronology of large volcanic eruptions occurring between 10°S and 15°N, we analysed possible relationships between crop harvests, climate changes and volcanic eruptions. In addition, some archives of policies and measures related to crops and social development extracted from the chronicles were used to analyse social resilience when faced with poor harvests. The results show that crop harvests in the study area generally increased with fluctuations when there were less low-latitude large volcanic eruptions from 1730 to 1810. However, from 1811 to 1910, volcanoes at low latitudes erupted more frequently, which contributed to concurrent low temperature and drought. Meanwhile, the crop harvests showed a step-down decrease during the following periods of 1810s, 1850s, 1870s and 1890s. Though, the local social system was certainly resilient in facing of such climate and agriculture disasters, i.e. the local society remained stable without significant famine, large-scale migration or social unrest until 1911. The strong resilience of local social systems owed largely to various relieving measures, such as, building barns, exempting or reducing local taxes, allocating farmland to immigrants, and central government dominated grain purchasing and distribution to alleviate disasters.

The rise and decline of many complex, pre-European maize-farming cultures in the American Southwest coincides with the warm, climatically quiescent Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 850–1350 CE) and transition to the cool, hydrologically variable Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1350–1850 CE). The effects of drought on early subsistence agriculture in the Southwest is well studied, but the impact of temperature stress and variability on the growth of maize crops and which areas were most resilient to such stress remain open questions. We statistically downscaled outputs from a paleo-climate model experiment (CESM1 LME) to map changes to cumulative growing degree days for maize (GDD, 30/10 °C) and precipitation over Utah between 850 and 1449 CE, and downscaled GDD changes to local Fremont Culture archaeological site occupations from radiocarbon-dated contexts mapped as spatially discrete kernel density estimates of summed probability distributions (SPDs). We then analyzed correspondences between Fremont SPDs and GDD/precipitation between 850 and 1449 CE. In general, we found (1) high Fremont occupation intensity coincident with GDD that is less volatile than the long term average, and low occupation intensity coincident with, or following, periods of volatile GDD; (2) intensified occupation of high-elevation sites during the MCA, followed by a retreat to lower elevation sites coincident with a sudden rise in annual temperature volatility and increasing drought conditions; and (3) these occupation changes occurred in spite of the greater temperatures and variability in GDD at low-elevation sites. We found evidence that increased inter-annual variability of growing seasons prior to the onset of the LIA, was likely a determinant of Fremont subsistence strategy decision making, and high-elevation site occupation. The most resilient Fremont occupations in the face of these challenges were sited where growing season lengths were least variable.

The world is facing new environmental challenges that may trigger the collapse of some social-ecological systems (SES). More extreme weather events may be much more common in the decades to come due to climate change. Although we have an idea of what climatic events to expect in each region, we know less about how SES can cope with these challenges. We study The Peruvian Piura Basin, which has been exposed to harsh environmental events associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for centuries. The Piura basin was home to the ancient Moche civilization, which collapsed due to a combination of factors, but strong El Niño events likely played a significant role. To analyze the resilience of The Piura Basin to flood events, we used as guidance the Robustness Framework and different propositions from prominent collapse theories to carry out a longitudinal study based on both primary and collected secondary data. We found that the Piura basin is very fragile based on almost all of the predictions of collapse theories (especially with respect to selfish elites, centralized governance, systems interconnection, anticipation capacity and sensitive dependence on resources), but the biggest strength is its growing stock of social capital. In small steps, user associations have been collectively working towards solutions for water conservation and public-infrastructure maintenance. There is a long way to go, but with the right policies to encourage the strengthening of these associations, the Piura basin could become more resilient to future El Niño events. This study also provides methodological and theoretical insights that can contribute to theory building for the resilience of SES.

The Proto-Shang, the Shang and the Zhou dynasties (∼2000–221 BCE: Before Common Era) are key periods in the origin and evolution of ancient civilizations in China since the periods include the processes and mechanisms of social development in the Central Plains of China during the Bronze Age. However, human-environment interactions in the context of trans-Eurasia cultural exchange during that time are not well-understood. In this study, isotopic analysis and radiocarbon dating of human and animal bones from Xinancheng cemetery in southeast Shanxi Province are reported. It was deduced that, for the period ∼1000–800 BCE, humans buried in Xinancheng cemetery relied primarily on C₄-based foods and upper-status individuals consumed more animal protein and probably C₃ crops. Also, considering the paleoclimate and other archaeological data of the Central Plains, the human diet and subsistence strategies changed significantly with more C₃ staples such as wheat being consumed during the Eastern Zhou (770–221 BCE), as evidenced by an increased intake of wheat by lower-status individuals and the development of a mixed wheat and millet agricultural system. It is argued that the socio-economic change around the late western Zhou-early eastern Zhou Dynasty occurred as a result of the necessity to adapt to the aggravation caused by climate deterioration and population pressures, factors which profoundly influenced the economic and lifestyle patterns in ancient China. The socio-economic system of the Eastern Zhou Dynasty displayed more resilience to climate change than that of earlier periods.

In this study, we present a modeling approach that investigates how much cultivable land was required to supply a society and whether societies were in need when environmental conditions deteriorated. The approach is implemented for the North-Eastern Peloponnese and is based upon the location of Late Helladic IIIB (1300–1200 BCE) archaeological sites, an assessment of their sizes, and a proposed diet of the people. Based on these information, the areal requirement of each site is calculated and mapped. The results show that large sites do not have sufficient space in their surroundings in order to supply themselves with the required food resources and thus they depended on supplies from the hinterland. Dry climatic conditions aggravate the situation. This indicates that potential societal crisis are less a factor of changing environmental conditions or a shortage of arable land but primarily caused by socio-economic factors.