While controls over the Earth's climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO₂-equivalent (tCO₂e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO₂e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO₂e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO₂e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. Here we quantify three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs), Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons, that reflect these different societal strategies. We compare the quantifications from two integrated assessment models and two sectoral models of the buildings and materials sectors across a broad set of indicators for sustainable development and climate action. Our global multi-scenario and multi-model analysis shows that all three SDPs enable substantial progress towards the human development goals of the SDGs. They simultaneously limit global warming and prevent further environmental degradation, with the sufficiency-oriented Resilient Communities scenario showing the lowest peak warming and lowest reliance on carbon dioxide removal as well as the largest improvements in biodiversity intactness. The SDPs also alleviate the concerns about the biogeophysical and technological feasibility of narrowly-focused climate change mitigation scenarios. However, the shifts in energy and food consumption patterns assumed in the SDPs, ranging from moderate in Economy-driven Innovation to very ambitious in Resilient Communities, also lead to increased challenges regarding socio-cultural feasibility.

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Many studies and existing seasonal forecasting models have examined and predicted the number of TCs (including geneses and landfalls) mainly based on the environmental factors in the peak TC season. However, these predictions can be time-consuming, computationally expensive and uncertain, depending on the efficiency and predictability of the dynamical models. Therefore, here we propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model, namely the Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) Model, for predicting the number of TCs (intensity at tropical storm or above) over the western North Pacific based on the environmental factors in the preseason. The nine categories comprising 103 candidate predictors in 1980–2015 (36 years) are systematically investigated. The best subset selection regression shows that the sea surface temperatures at the tropical North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific in April, the 500 hPa geopotential height difference between April and January at the open ocean southwest of Australia and the 700 hPa geopotential height at the North Pacific in April are the most significant predictors. The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.89. The model is successfully validated by leave-one-out, nine-fold cross-validations, and later 5 year (2016–2020) observations. The prediction of the SYSU Model exhibits a 95% hit rate in 1980–2020 (39 out of 41), suggesting an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TCs over the western North Pacific.

By some counts, up to 98% of environmental news stories are negative in nature. Implicit in this number is the conventional wisdom among many communicators that increasing people's understanding, awareness, concern or even fear of climate change are necessary precursors for action and behavior change. In this article we review scientific theories of mind and brain that explain why this conventional view is flawed. In real life, the relationship between beliefs and behavior often goes in the opposite direction: our actions change our beliefs, awareness and concerns through a process of self-justification and self-persuasion. As one action leads to another, this process of self-persuasion can go hand in hand with a deepening engagement and the development of agency—knowing how to act. One important source of agency is learning from the actions of others. We therefore propose an approach to climate communication and storytelling that builds people's agency for climate action by providing a wide variety of stories of people taking positive action on climate change. Applied at scale, this will shift the conceptualization of climate change from 'issue-based' to 'action-based'. It will also expand the current dominant meanings of 'climate action' (i.e. 'consumer action' and 'activism') to incorporate all relevant practices people engage in as members of a community, as professionals and as citizens. We close by proposing a systematic approach to get more reference material for action-based stories from science, technology and society to the communities of storytellers—learning from health communication and technologies developed for COVID-19.

The announcement of India's 2070 net-zero target has demonstrated the power of a credible policy signal and changed the course of India's climate debate. While the Government of India (GoI) has not specified whether this target refers to carbon-dioxide or all greenhouse gases, the announcement has been a watershed moment in India's climate policy. From questions related to whether and at what pace should India decarbonize its economy, various actors in India are now aligned towards this target. An important contribution to inform India's net-zero journey has come through various modelling assessments undertaken by India's institutions and researchers. While a few economy-wide net-zero modelling assessments are available, a comprehensive and integrated picture woven collaboratively by India's climate experts is conspicuously missing. It is critical to complement quantitative modelling-based assessments with insightful perspectives of experts on India's climate policy. Together, modelling based quantitative assessments and insightful qualitative perspectives of climate experts would be an instrumental force that will ensure that the country achieves its net-zero target by understanding synergies and trade-offs, harnessing opportunities, and avoiding risks along the way. This collaborative article discusses various aspects of pathways towards India's net-zero goal to address the gap in literature by looking at broad and inter-related dimensions of 'national and sub-national perspectives', 'sectoral and technological transitions', and 'enablers' needed for India's transition. While the larger net-zero debate relates to all greenhouse gases, we focus on carbon dioxide in our current effort. The assessment aims to inform not just India's policy makers and stakeholders, but various researchers, practitioners and governments around the world for them to be better aware of the various aspects of India's net-zero debate. It weaves the perspectives of experts from 24 institutions across the three broad dimensions to give a comprehensive view of a roadmap towards India's net-zero future.

Much of the world's data are stored, managed, and distributed by data centers. Data centers require a tremendous amount of energy to operate, accounting for around 1.8% of electricity use in the United States. Large amounts of water are also required to operate data centers, both directly for liquid cooling and indirectly to produce electricity. For the first time, we calculate spatially-detailed carbon and water footprints of data centers operating within the United States, which is home to around one-quarter of all data center servers globally. Our bottom-up approach reveals one-fifth of data center servers direct water footprint comes from moderately to highly water stressed watersheds, while nearly half of servers are fully or partially powered by power plants located within water stressed regions. Approximately 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centers. We investigate tradeoffs and synergies between data center's water and energy utilization by strategically locating data centers in areas of the country that will minimize one or more environmental footprints. Our study quantifies the environmental implications behind our data creation and storage and shows a path to decrease the environmental footprint of our increasing digital footprint.

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

The North Pacific garbage patch has accumulated floating plastic pollution for several decades. The Ocean Cleanup, a not-for-profit organization that works to retrieve this floating plastic, has conducted systematic surveys in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre since 2015. The dataset, now spanning seven years, includes the deployment of trawls of varying sizes and the collection of aerial imagery. Here, we report a synthesis of these measurements and highlight an unexpected rise in mass concentration of plastic fragments (0.5–50 mm, from 2.9 kg km⁻² in 2015 to 14.2 kg km⁻² in 2022), increasing at a faster rate than that of larger items (>50 mm). With a mass balance model, we show that a substantial fraction of this material (74%–96%) is new to the region and does not result from the degradation of larger items that were already present in these waters seven years ago. Instead, we hypothesise it is the signature of the degradation and transport processes of legacy floating plastic pollution left accumulated in the global marine environment for the past decades.

The severe compound hot and drought event (CHDE) in 2022 had serious impacts on water resources, agriculture, power supply, and ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). In this paper, we asked, have similar spatiotemporally overlapping compound events, like the one observed in 2022, occurred historically in the basin? And, if so, how can we pre-assess the impacts of such potential events on subseasonal timescales? To address these questions, regional CHDEs in the YRB since 1961 were systematically identified and comprehensively assessed using a modified intensity–area–duration technique and hazard assessment methods. Additionally, the subseasonal pre-assessment capability for CHDEs in the YRB using the China Meteorological Administration's third-generation climate model prediction system (CPSv3-S2S) was demonstrated. A total of 140 CHDEs occurred during 1961–2022, with the 21st century showing a remarkably high risk of such events. Among these, 2022 was the most intense year, with the event from July 26th to August 30th being unprecedented in severity. CPSv3-S2S effectively forecast this event's occurrence within a 1–25 lead days, particularly in pre-assessing its extensively impacted area and high-hazard centers in the upper and middle reaches of the main river course. This pre-assessment method serves as a valuable reference in decision-making to anticipate and mitigate the risks of hydropower supply shortages and heightened electricity demand during extremely high temperatures in upstream areas.

This study analyzed the causes of the extreme heatwave in East Asia in 2018, which brought a record-breaking event in South Korea in terms of the number of hot days and the intensity in history. Long-lasting atmospheric patterns were observed during the 2018 heatwave, and the patterns were similar to those known as the Pacific–Japan (PJ), circum-global teleconnection (CGT), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) patterns identified in a previous study. In 2018, all three patterns appeared to exhibit a strong positive phase. In particular, the PJ and AO Indices showed the highest values within the analysis period, having a major impact on the heatwave. According to a quantitative analysis through multi-linear regression (MLR) of how much each of the three patterns affects the heatwave, all three patterns of PJ, CGT, and AO have significant effects on the heatwave in Korea. The statistically reconstructed heatwave days (HWD) time series with the three indices by MLR account for 51% of the total variability at the interannual timescale. Especially in 2018, most of the occurred HWD could be restored using the three indices. Also, in 1994, when the three indices had a high peak, the number of HWDs was the second-longest ever, while in 1993, when all three indices had a low peak, the heatwave was the lowest. This study quantitatively examined whether the large-scale extreme heatwave in 2018 greatly increased because of PJ, CGT, and AO. This study suggests that extreme heatwave can occur again if three apparently independent atmospheric patterns appear at once in the future.

Vegetation impacts on cloud physical properties and climate. The rapid greening in China in the past two decades, which contributed the most to global greening, may influence clouds in the region. However, due to the influence of a rapid concomitant decline in aerosol levels in China and of global warming, such influence of vegetation change is yet to be clarified. By utilizing observation data from satellite, we explored the impact of vegetation change on summertime low-level cloud cover in China from 2003 to 2022. After excluding the influence of changing aerosol and temperature on clouds, we revealed a significant positive correlation between vegetation changes and low-level cloud cover. Moreover, we explored the underlying mechanisms through which vegetation exerts its influence on clouds. We found that such influence is mediated through enhancing surface water vapor content by vegetation as well as altering net surface radiation and sensible heat flux.

Effective private land conservation strategies that consider both landholder preferences and future climatic conditions are critical for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the interaction and relative importance of these factors for conservation planning performance is unknown. Here, we assess the importance of considering landholder preferences and climate change for prioritising locations for conservation tenders to recruit landholders for conservation covenants. To achieve this we develop a planning framework that accounts for the tender process to optimise investment across regions and apply it to koala-focused tenders in New South Wales, Australia, exploring four planning approaches that consider or are ignorant to landholder preferences or climate change. We find that optimal investments depend more on landholder preferences than climate change, and when landholder preferences are ignored, there is little benefit in accounting for climate change. Our analysis reveals new insights into this important interaction.

Climate change exacerbates global food insecurity, leading to undernutrition and immunodeficiency, which in turn increases susceptibility to infectious diseases. In this way, climate change creates a syndemic, with undernutrition, immunity, and infectious disease risk adversely interacting. This scoping review aims to map: (1) trends in research about climate change impacts on food security; and (2) the extent to which food security is connected to the immune system and infectious diseases in published climate change research in North America. Using a scoping review process, we identified studies that described food security in the context of climate change in North America. A search string was developed and used to search five electronic databases for articles without language restriction. Data on food security pillars and their relationship with infectious diseases and the immune system were extracted from relevant articles and descriptively synthesized. We identified 204 published articles that met the inclusion criteria. The number of articles linking climate change to food security in North America increased yearly, with regional differences in the number of publications, climate variables analyzed, and study methods used. At least one connection between food security and the immune system or infectious diseases was discussed in 72 articles (35.3%). Of these, eleven articles mentioned both the immune system and infectious diseases and separately described their relationship with food security. However, only eight articles linked or described the relationship between food, immune systems, and infection—for example, by describing extreme weather events that reduced food security, resulting in malnutrition causing immunosuppression, thereby increasing the likelihood of infections. This highlights a gap in research on the adverse interaction between undernutrition, the immune system, and infectious disease risk in the context of climate change. This review underscores the need to study the interconnected and cascading health outcomes of climate change.

Southeast Asia is highly biodiverse and currently experiences among the highest rates of tropical deforestation globally, but impacts on biodiversity are not well synthesized. We use Bayesian multi-level modeling to meta-analyse 831 pairwise comparisons of biodiversity in sites subject to land-use driven deforestation (for example, plantations or logged forest) versus undisturbed sites (control sites). After controlling for hierarchical dependencies, we show that biodiversity is a fifth lower in sites with these land-use driven deforestation (95% credible interval = 16%–28%, mean = 22%). This reduction was greater when forest losses were of high-intensity (34% reduction in biodiversity) compared to low-intensity (18% reduction), and effects were consistent across biogeographic regions and taxa. Oil-palm plantations led to the greatest reduction in biodiversity (39%, CI 27%–48%), and agroforests the least (24%, CI 10%–37%). We also find that biodiversity was reduced by 26% (CI 4%–42%) in secondary forest sites compared to undisturbed control sites, but biodiversity was the same in intermediate or mature-aged secondary forest compared to control sites (although species composition was potentially altered). Overall, our study provides a new line of evidence of the substantial detrimental impacts of land-use driven deforestation and particular types of land-use on the biodiversity of Southeast Asia.

The announcement of India's 2070 net-zero target has demonstrated the power of a credible policy signal and changed the course of India's climate debate. While the Government of India (GoI) has not specified whether this target refers to carbon-dioxide or all greenhouse gases, the announcement has been a watershed moment in India's climate policy. From questions related to whether and at what pace should India decarbonize its economy, various actors in India are now aligned towards this target. An important contribution to inform India's net-zero journey has come through various modelling assessments undertaken by India's institutions and researchers. While a few economy-wide net-zero modelling assessments are available, a comprehensive and integrated picture woven collaboratively by India's climate experts is conspicuously missing. It is critical to complement quantitative modelling-based assessments with insightful perspectives of experts on India's climate policy. Together, modelling based quantitative assessments and insightful qualitative perspectives of climate experts would be an instrumental force that will ensure that the country achieves its net-zero target by understanding synergies and trade-offs, harnessing opportunities, and avoiding risks along the way. This collaborative article discusses various aspects of pathways towards India's net-zero goal to address the gap in literature by looking at broad and inter-related dimensions of 'national and sub-national perspectives', 'sectoral and technological transitions', and 'enablers' needed for India's transition. While the larger net-zero debate relates to all greenhouse gases, we focus on carbon dioxide in our current effort. The assessment aims to inform not just India's policy makers and stakeholders, but various researchers, practitioners and governments around the world for them to be better aware of the various aspects of India's net-zero debate. It weaves the perspectives of experts from 24 institutions across the three broad dimensions to give a comprehensive view of a roadmap towards India's net-zero future.

Indigenous water knowledge recognizes water as living, and that the relationship between people and water is one of reciprocity. Yet, Indigenous Peoples continue to struggle for water justice due to centuries long and ongoing colonial legacies that have intergenerational effects on self-determination, culture, and wellbeing. Using a narrative review, this paper explores how published research has used art and arts-based approaches to explore dimensions of water injustice, wellbeing and mental health with Indigenous communities living in the Arctic and Amazon regions. Within the three central themes of the review (wellbeing, water justice, and arts-based research approaches), the most discussed emergent themes were: relationship to place, kinship, the lived experience of water, ongoing changes to water, and storytelling and art as instruments of resistance and to make visible what is not visible. The paper discusses those themes from the literature, and possible areas of future research. The findings underscore the importance of including diverse voices, worldviews and knowledges in water governance, and the potential for arts-based approaches to facilitate intercultural and intergenerational efforts to address water injustice and advance Indigenous Peoples' rights to self-determination.

Coastal infrastructure has reduced habitat complexity and altered light regimes compared to natural habitats, altering ecological communities and reducing overall biodiversity. Although, many studies have assessed effects of infrastructure on the overall biodiversity, these were often restricted in scope, by assessing only a particular type of infrastructure, such as coastal defence structures, or by focusing solely on diversity metrics. Therefore, we still have little knowledge on the functional impacts of infrastructure, in general, on coastal habitats. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the functional composition of natural and artificial marine habitats. We analysed a total of 68 publications from 26 countries, with data collected between 1995–2019. We found up to 60% more habitat-forming algae on natural habitats than on infrastructure at most tidal heights, but no differences were found when looking at all species of macro-algal, i.e. including non-habitat-formers. In contrast, we found more habitat-forming filter feeders, such as oysters and mussels, on subtidal vertical and floating structures, such as pylons and pontoons, respectively, than on natural habitats. Differences on the abundance of grazers varied with tidal height and/or the type of infrastructure. For example, in the subtidal, grazers were significantly more abundant on natural boulders than on infrastructure, while at low tidal heights, we found significantly less grazers on artificial floating structures and on vertical structures than on natural habitats. With coastal development on the rise, these differences have significant implications for productivity, energy and nutrient flow in coastal systems. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting a functional approach to have a more holistic understanding on the environmental impacts associated to marine urbanisation and thus better inform management and restoration efforts.

Ecosystem carbon flux components, including ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP), are the most direct indicators of ecosystem production capacity, carbon sequestration, and climate regulation strength. Nevertheless, little is known about how water availability affects the temperature responses of carbon flux components in water-limited ecosystems. Based on a long-term eddy observation dataset of temperate grasslands in northern China, we analyzed the effects of drought on the optimum temperature of carbon flux components (T_opt^flux) in temperate grassland ecosystems and clarified the relative contributions of vegetation and climate factors to T_opt^flux. We found that the optimum temperatures of carbon flux components were widespread across different grassland types, with a significant lower optimum temperature of NEP (T_opt^NEP, 17.32±3.21°C) than that of GPP (T_opt^GPP, 18.67±2.53°C) and ER (T_opt^ER, 19.30±1.94°C). Drought significantly reduced T_opt^NEP, but had no significant effects on T_opt^GPP and T_opt^ER. Obvious shifts of occurrence date of T_opt^flux were also observed in the years with different precipitation regimes. That is, T_opt^GPP and T_opt^NEP occurred significantly earlier than seasonal maximum temperature (T_max) in the dry years, while T_opt^flux significantly lagged behind the occurrence of T_max in the wet years. Water availability and vegetation factors co-regulated the spatiotemporal variations of T_opt^flux. In the dry years, precipitation and soil water content predominated the changes in T_opt^GPP and T_opt^ER, whereas vegetation structure (leaf area index) and physiological characteristics played a more important role in the wet years. Our study not only provided the first evidence for the widespread existence of T_opt^flux of different carbon fluxes, but also addressed the remarkable impacts of drought on T_opt^flux and their occurrence date in the water-limited grasslands. Therefore, incorporating the unimodality of these observed temperature responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes into land carbon models is necessary for improving the accuracy of carbon sequestration predictions.

With increased pressure from anthropogenic climate change, boreal forests are suspected to be approaching tipping points which could cause large-scale change in tree cover and affect global climatic feedback. However, evidence for this proposed tipping is sparse and relies heavily on observations on short time scales from remote sensing data and space-for-time substitutions.
Here we make use of an extensive pollen data set including over 450 records to investigate the existence of alternative stable forest cover states in the boreal forest and its adjacent biomes during the last 8000 years. By using a multimodality measure on time series of reconstructed tree cover we find very little multimodality in pollen data. To test whether this lack of multimodality is caused by limitations in the paleo data set we perform surrogate experiments. Surrogate data with alternative stable states based on the paleo vegetation-climate relationship were generated and significant multimodality was found more often than for the pollen-based tree cover (24.7% and 5.3% respectively). The response of tree cover to climate may, therefore, be more gradual and not as abrupt as would be expected from remote sensing analyses on stability. The apparent alternative stability hypothesized in the analyses of climate-vegetation relationships could be due to the strong spatial heterogeneity of environmental factors and vegetation responses as an artifact of space-for-time substitutions.
Even though current and upcoming shifts in the boreal forest are indisputable and a reason for strong concern, these changes could happen gradually without going through large-scale tipping between alternative stable states. To aid adaptation and conservation measures, more knowledge is needed about boreal forest drivers and their spatial heterogeneity.

Agricultural expansion and intensification are major drivers of global biodiversity loss, endangering natural habitats and ecosystem functions, such as pollination. In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of avocado frontier expansion and intensification from 2011 to 2019 and assess their effects on landscape connectivity, focusing on Michoacán, Mexico, the world's leading avocado exporter. Using high-resolution satellite imagery combined with deep learning based on convolutional neural networks, we delineated avocado orchards and other land use/cover classes, mapped individual avocado tree crowns and irrigation ponds, and identified hotspots of expanding and intensifying avocado production. We used a circuit theory approach to evaluate the effects of avocado expansion and intensification on the connectivity of natural and semi-natural habitats. Our results reveal a rapid increase in avocado orchards, which expanded by 4,175 ha—a growth from 27.9% to 37% in area—over the eight-year period. There was also a decline in rainfed agriculture by 3,252 ha, and oak-pine forests by 1,343 ha. We observed not only the expansion of the avocado frontier into forests but also an intensification of avocado production via increases in high-density plantations, irrigation ponds, and orchards prone to intensive pruning. Moreover, lower-intensity land-use classes, such as rainfed crops, were rapidly converted to avocado orchards. This expansion and intensification have led to increasing isolation of forest fragments. Although we identified routes that could facilitate the movement of species, the dense avocado monocultures continue to threaten the connectivity of natural and semi-natural habitats, causing notable losses of old-growth oak-pine forests and disrupting crucial ecological corridors. Our research underscores the adverse effects of avocado production on land use and landscape connectivity, emphasizing the need for sustainable management practices to ensure the long-term viability of avocado production systems and overall ecosystem functioning.

To advance its climate neutrality and electromobility goals, the European Union (EU) depends on a reliable supply of lithium. The "lithium triangle", comprising Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia, contains 53% of the world's lithium resources and supplies 85% of the EU's lithium imports. In 2023, the EU and Latin America launched a new cooperation agenda under which the EU signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with Chile and Argentina aimed at jointly developing sustainable value chains for critical raw materials. That same year, the EU adopted the European Batteries Regulation (EBR), which mandates corporate due diligence processes to address social and environmental risks associated with the mining of battery minerals. Together, the EBR and MoUs form the foundation of the EU's responsible sourcing strategy for lithium mining in South America. 

This study, using the energy justice framework and data from a 2022 Delphi survey, investigates whether the EBR and MoUs align with the conditions that should be promoted so that the lithium battery value chain becomes just for the lithium triangle. Our findings indicate that the EU-South America agenda reflects cumulative learning by addressing mutual interests, such as local industrialization and the promotion of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. However, the current EU responsible sourcing approach overlooks critical local-level justice considerations —distributive, procedural, and recognition justice— that are highly relevant to the lithium triangle. We argue that for the EU to ensure a just lithium supply from South America, additional issues must be prioritized, including the equitable participation of local communities in the economic benefits of lithium mining and the proper implementation of free, prior, and informed consultation with Indigenous peoples. 

Anthropogenic global warming has led to widespread increase in the heatwave intensity, duration, and frequency (HIDF) of events across the globe. Although the three characteristics of heatwaves are closely interconnected, they are often studied separately, especially over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we assess the HIDF over India during the period 1961-2023, and show that there exists a systematic east-west asymmetry in their characteristics over northern India. Specifically, we show that a substantial increase (decrease) in HIDF exists over major cities in the western (eastern) parts of North India. For example, Ahmedabad (a city in the western part) shows a 67.5% increase in the likelihood of four-day heatwaves in the recent decades (1991-2023) compared to the reference period 1961-1990. On the other hand, in the city of Patna (in the eastern part), we notice a 78% decrease in the likelihood of four-day heatwaves in the recent decades. Furthermore, we show that the east--west asymmetry in the HIDF is caused by a major climatic mode, i.e., the Atlantic Niño. Overall, our study provides a first insight into the contrasting characteristics of heatwaves over Northern India and their potential drivers. Such information is vital for the design of regionally appropriate adaptation strategies across India.