Focus on Carbon Cycle Dynamics During Episodes of Rapid Climate Change

Past climate records reveal many instances of rapid climate change that are often coincident with fast changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, suggesting links and positive feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the physical climate system. The carbon reservoirs that might have played an important role during these past episodes of rapid change include near-surface soil and peatland carbon, permafrost, carbon stored in vegetation, methane hydrates in deep-sea sediments, volcanism, and carbon stored in parts of the ocean that are easily ventilated through changes in circulation. To determine whether similar changes might lie in store in our future, we must gain a better understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry, dynamics, and feedbacks involved in such events. Specifically, we need to ascertain the main natural sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane linked to rapid climate events in the paleoclimate record, and understand the mechanisms, triggers, thresholds, and feedbacks that were involved. Our review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing results from nine studies covering a broad range of past time episodes. Studies are categorized into (a) episodes of massive carbon release millions of years ago; (b) the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial 19 000–11 000 years ago; and (c) the current era. We conclude with a discussion on major remaining research challenges and implications for future projections and risk assessment.

Tidal marshes globally are experiencing erosion with sea level rise. In order to adaptively plan for essential marsh preservation, we recognize the importance of the investigation of marsh archives for the perspective they provide toward resilience. Our objective in this study is to examine the relationship of tidal marsh carbon sequestration with both climate change and human impact throughout past centuries and millennia. A Hudson River marsh sediment core spanning the last 2000 years is analyzed for bulk loss on ignition (LOI), bulk density, sedimentation rate, carbon (C) and mineral flux, and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis including lead, copper, titanium and potassium. We compare this record to previously established pollen and spore stratigraphy from the same site, along with an extensive macrofossil based AMS ¹⁴C chronology based upon both cores. Carbon accumulation generally follows sediment accumulation rates, which were higher than 200 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ prior to 1500 years ago. Declines in carbon storage rate during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are linked to drought, fire, and charcoal, while lesser declines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are linked to cooling and a shorter growing season. Subsequent human impact with marsh haying practices also led to carbon accumulation rate decline to 100 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. Increases in C sequestration rates in recent decades may be attributable to nitrogen pollution of the estuary, invasive plants, and/or increased flooding, but the lack of mineral sediment threatens their stability. Ecosystem function is declining with the loss of foundational species, and the crisis is deepening for preservation of this habitat. We strongly recommend strategies for minimizing marsh loss.

Numerous negative carbon isotope excursions (nCIEs) in the geologic record occurring over 10⁴–10⁵ years are interpreted as episodes of massive carbon release. nCIEs help to illuminate the connection between past carbon cycling and climate variability. Theoretically, the size of a nCIE can be used to determine the mass of carbon released, provided that the carbon source is known or other environmental changes such as temperature or ocean pH can be constrained. A simple isotopic mass balance equation often serves as a first order estimate for the mass of carbon input, but this approach ignores the effects of negative carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Here we show, using 432 earth system model simulations, that the mass of carbon release and associated environmental impacts for a nCIE of a given size and carbon source depend on the onset duration of that nCIE: the longer the nCIE onset duration, the greater the required carbon input in order to counterbalance the input of ¹³C-enriched carbon through carbonate compensation and weathering feedbacks. On timescales >10³ years, these feedbacks remove carbon from the atmosphere so that the relative rise in atmospheric CO₂ decreases with the nCIE onset duration. Consequently, the impacts on global temperature, surface ocean pH and saturation state are reduced if the nCIE has a long onset duration. The framework provided here demonstrates how constraints on the total nCIE duration and relative shape—together determining the onset duration—affect the interpretation of sedimentary nCIEs. Finally, we evaluate selected well-studied nCIEs, including the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼54 Ma), the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (∼56 Ma), and the Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (∼120 Ma), in the context of our model-based framework and show how modeled environmental changes can be used to narrow down the most likely carbon emissions scenarios.

During the last deglaciation (18–8 kyr BP), shelf flooding and warming presumably led to a large-scale decomposition of permafrost soils in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Microbial degradation of old organic matter released from the decomposing permafrost potentially contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO₂ and also to the declining atmospheric radiocarbon contents (Δ¹⁴C). The significance of permafrost for the atmospheric carbon pool is not well understood as the timing of the carbon activation is poorly constrained by proxy data. Here, we trace the mobilization of organic matter from permafrost in the Pacific sector of Beringia over the last 22 kyr using mass-accumulation rates and radiocarbon signatures of terrigenous biomarkers in four sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Northwest Pacific. We find that pronounced reworking and thus the vulnerability of old organic carbon to remineralization commenced during the early deglaciation (∼16.8 kyr BP) when meltwater runoff in the Yukon River intensified riverbank erosion of permafrost soils and fluvial discharge. Regional deglaciation in Alaska additionally mobilized significant fractions of fossil, petrogenic organic matter at this time. Permafrost decomposition across Beringia's Pacific sector occurred in two major pulses that match the Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal warm spells and rapidly initiated within centuries. The carbon mobilization likely resulted from massive shelf flooding during meltwater pulses 1A (∼14.6 kyr BP) and 1B (∼11.5 kyr BP) followed by permafrost thaw in the hinterland. Our findings emphasize that coastal erosion was a major control to rapidly mobilize permafrost carbon along Beringia's Pacific coast at ∼14.6 and ∼11.5 kyr BP implying that shelf flooding in Beringia may partly explain the centennial-scale rises in atmospheric CO₂ at these times. Around 16.5 kyr BP, the mobilization of old terrigenous organic matter caused by meltwater-floods may have additionally contributed to increasing CO₂ levels.

Past variations in atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O) allow important insight into abrupt climate events. Here, we investigate marine N₂O emissions by forcing the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity with freshwater into the North Atlantic. The model simulates a decrease in marine N₂O emissions of about 0.8 TgN yr⁻¹ followed by a recovery, in reasonable agreement regarding timing and magnitude with isotope-based reconstructions of marine emissions for the Younger Dryas Northern Hemisphere cold event. In the model the freshwater forcing causes a transient near-collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to a fast adjustment in thermocline ventilation and an increase in O₂ in tropical eastern boundary systems and in the tropical Indian Ocean. In turn, net production by nitrification and denitrification and N₂O emissions decrease in these regions. The decrease in organic matter export, mainly in the North Atlantic where ventilation and nutrient supply is suppressed, explains the remaining emission reduction. Modeled global marine N₂O production and emission changes are delayed, initially by up to 300 years, relative to the AMOC decrease, but by less than 50 years at peak decline. The N₂O perturbation is recovering only slowly and the lag between the recovery in AMOC and the recovery in N₂O emissions and atmospheric concentrations exceeds 400 years. Thus, our results suggest a century-scale lag between ocean circulation and marine N₂O emissions, and a tight coupling between changes in AMOC and tropical thermocline ventilation.

Peatland ecosystems are important carbon sinks, but also release carbon back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. Peatlands therefore play an essential role in the global carbon cycle. However, the response of high-latitude peatlands to ongoing climate change is still not fully understood. In this study, we used plant macrofossils and peat property analyses as proxies to document changes in vegetation and peat and carbon accumulation after the Little Ice Age. Results from 12 peat monoliths collected in high-boreal and low-subarctic regions in northwestern Québec, Canada, suggest high carbon accumulation rates for the recent past (post AD 1970s). Successional changes in plant assemblages were asynchronous within the cores in the southernmost region, but more consistent in the northern region. Average apparent recent carbon accumulation rates varied between 50.7 and 149.1 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with the northernmost study region showing higher values. The variation in vegetation records and peat properties found within samples taken from the same sites and amongst cores taken from different regions highlights the need to investigate multiple records from each peatland, but also from different peatlands within one region.

Carbon isotope minima were a ubiquitous feature in the mid-depth (1.5–2.5 km) Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 14.5–17.5 kyr BP) and the Younger Dryas (YD, 11.6–12.9 kyr BP), with the most likely driver being collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Negative carbon isotope anomalies also occurred throughout the surface ocean and atmosphere, but their timing relative to AMOC collapse and the underlying drivers have remained unclear. Here we evaluate the lead-lag relationship between AMOC variability and surface ocean δ¹³C signals using high resolution benthic and planktonic stable isotope records from two Brazil Margin cores (located at 1.8 km and 2.1 km water depth). In each case, the decrease in benthic δ¹³C during HS1 leads planktonic δ¹³C by 800 ± 200 years. Because the records are based on the same samples, the relative timing is constrained by the core stratigraphy. Our results imply that AMOC collapse initiates a chain of events that propagates through the oceanic carbon cycle in less than 1 kyr. Direct comparison of planktonic foraminiferal and atmospheric records implies a portion of the surface ocean δ¹³C signal can be explained by temperature-dependent equilibration with a ¹³C-depleted atmosphere, with the remainder due to biological productivity, input of carbon from the abyss, or reduced air-sea equilibration.

Arguably among the most globally impactful climate changes in Earth's past million years are the glacial terminations that punctuated the Pleistocene epoch. With the acquisition and analysis of marine and continental records, including ice cores, it is now clear that the Earth's climate was responding profoundly to changes in greenhouse gases that accompanied those glacial terminations. But the ultimate forcing responsible for the greenhouse gas variability remains elusive. The oceans must play a central role in any hypothesis that attempt to explain the systematic variations in pCO₂ because the Ocean is a giant carbon capacitor, regulating carbon entering and leaving the atmosphere. For a long time, geological processes that regulate fluxes of carbon to and from the oceans were thought to operate too slowly to account for any of the systematic variations in atmospheric pCO₂ that accompanied glacial cycles during the Pleistocene. Here we investigate the role that Earth's hydrothermal systems had in affecting the flux of carbon to the ocean and ultimately, the atmosphere during the last glacial termination. We document late glacial and deglacial intervals of anomalously old ¹⁴C reservoir ages, large benthic-planktic foraminifera ¹⁴C age differences, and increased deposition of hydrothermal metals in marine sediments from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) that indicate a significant release of hydrothermal fluids entered the ocean at the last glacial termination. The large ¹⁴C anomaly was accompanied by a ∼4-fold increase in Zn/Ca in both benthic and planktic foraminifera that reflects an increase in dissolved [Zn] throughout the water column. Foraminiferal B/Ca and Li/Ca results from these sites document deglacial declines in [${{{\rm{CO}}}_{3}}^{2-}$] throughout the water column; these were accompanied by carbonate dissolution at water depths that today lie well above the calcite lysocline. Taken together, these results are strong evidence for an increased flux of hydrothermally-derived carbon through the EEP upwelling system at the last glacial termination that would have exchanged with the atmosphere and affected both Δ¹⁴C and pCO₂. These data do not quantify the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere through the EEP upwelling system but indicate that geologic forcing must be incorporated into models that attempt to simulate the cyclic nature of glacial/interglacial climate variability. Importantly, these results underscore the need to put better constraints on the flux of carbon from geologic reservoirs that affect the global carbon budget.

Warm periods in Earth's history tend to cool more slowly than cool periods warm. Here we explore initial differences in how the global ocean takes up and gives up heat and carbon in forced rapid warming and cooling climate scenarios. We force an intermediate-complexity earth system model using two atmospheric CO₂ scenarios. A ramp-up (1% per year increase in atmospheric CO₂ for 150 years) starts from an average global CO₂ concentration of 285 ppm to represent warming of an icehouse climate. A ramp-down (1% per year decrease in atmospheric CO₂ for 150 years) starts from an average global CO₂ concentration of 1257 ppm to represent cooling of a greenhouse climate. Atmospheric CO₂ is then held constant in each simulation and the model is integrated an additional 350 years. The ramp-down simulation shows a weaker response of surface air temperature to changes in radiative forcing relative to the ramp-up scenario. This weaker response is due to a relatively large and fast release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. This asymmetry in heat exchange in cooling and warming scenarios exists mainly because of differences in the response of the ocean circulation to forcing. In the ramp-up, increasing stratification and weakening of meridional overturning circulation slows ocean heat and carbon uptake. In the ramp-down, cooling accelerates meridional overturning and deepens vertical mixing, accelerating the release of heat and carbon stored at depth. Though idealized, our experiments offer insight into differences in ocean dynamics in icehouse and greenhouse climate transitions.

Recent geochemical and sedimentological evidence constrains the response of seawater chemistry to carbon injection during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM): foraminiferal boron-based proxy records constrain the magnitude and duration of surface ocean acidification, while new deep sea records document a carbonate compensation depth (CCD) over-shoot during the recovery. Such features can be used to more tightly constrain simulations of the event within carbon cycle models, and thus test mechanisms for carbon release, buffering, and sequestration. We use the LOSCAR carbon cycle model to examine first the onset of, and then recovery from the PETM. We systematically varied the mass, rate, and location of C release along with changes in ocean circulation patterns as well as initial conditions such as pre-event pCO₂ and the strength of weathering feedbacks. A range of input parameters produced output that successfully conformed to observational constraints on the event's onset. However, none of the successful scenarios featured surface seawater aragonite or calcite undersaturation at even peak PETM conditions (in contrast to anthropogenic acidification projections), and most runs featured approximately a doubling of pCO₂ relative to pre-event conditions (suggesting a high PETM climate sensitivity). Further runs test scenarios of the body and recovery of the PETM against records of sustained acidification followed by rapid pH recovery in boron records, as well as the timing and depth of the CCD overshoot. Successful scenarios all require a sustained release of carbon over many tens of thousands of years following the onset (comparable to the mass released during the onset) and removal of carbon (likely as burial of organic carbon in addition to elevated chemical weathering rates) during the recovery. This sequence of events is consistent with a short-lived feedback involving the release of ¹³C-depleted C in response to initial warming followed by its subsequent sequestration during the cooling phase.