Focus on Changing Permafrost in a Warming World: Observation and Implication

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Within the zone of discontinuous permafrost, linear disturbances such as winter roads and seismic lines severely alter the hydrology, ecology, and ground thermal regime. Continued resource exploration in this environment has created a need to better understand the processes causing permafrost thaw and concomitant changes to the terrain and ground cover, in order to efficiently reduce the environmental impact of future exploration through the development of best management practices. In a peatland 50 km south of Fort Simpson, NWT, permafrost thaw and the resulting ground surface subsidence have produced water-logged linear disturbances that appear not to be regenerating permafrost, and in many cases have altered the land cover type to resemble that of a wetland bog or fen. Subsidence alters the hydrology of plateaus, developing a fill and spill drainage pattern that allows some disturbances to be hydrologically connected with adjacent wetlands via surface flow paths during periods of high water availability. The degree of initial disturbance is an important control on the extent of permafrost thaw and thus the overall potential recovery of the linear disturbance. Low impact techniques that minimize ground surface disturbance and maintain original surface topography by eliminating windrows are needed to minimize the impact of these linear disturbances.

Multi-temporal image analysis of very-high-resolution historical aerial and recent satellite imagery of the Ahnewetut Wetlands in Kobuk Valley National Park, Alaska, revealed the nature of thaw lake and polygonal terrain evolution over a 54-year period of record comprising two 27-year intervals (1951–1978, 1978–2005). Using active-contouring-based change detection, high-precision orthorectification and co-registration and the normalized difference index, surface area expansion and contraction of 22 shallow water bodies, ranging in size from 0.09 to 179 ha, and the transition of ice-wedge polygons from a low- to a high-centered morphology were quantified. Total surface area decreased by only 0.4% during the first time interval, but decreased by 5.5% during the second time interval. Twelve water bodies (ten lakes and two ponds) were relatively stable with net surface area decreases of ≤10%, including four lakes that gained area during both time intervals, whereas ten water bodies (five lakes and five ponds) had surface area losses in excess of 10%, including two ponds that drained completely. Polygonal terrain remained relatively stable during the first time interval, but transformation of polygons from low- to high-centered was significant during the second time interval.

We examine the influence of altered winter precipitation on a High Arctic landscape with continuous permafrost. Gas exchange, leaf tissue element and isotopic composition (N, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), and plant water sources derived from stem and soil water δ¹⁸O were examined in Salix arctica (arctic willow) following a decade of snow-fence-enhanced snow pack in NW Greenland. Study plots in ambient and +snow conditions were sampled in summer 2012. Plants experiencing enhanced snow conditions for 10 years had higher leaf [N], photosynthetic rate, and more enriched leaf δ¹⁵N. Enhanced snow did not influence stomatal conductance or depth of plant water use. We attribute the higher photosynthetic rate in S. arctica exposed to deeper snow pack to altered biogeochemical cycles which yielded higher leaf [N] rather than to enhanced water availability. These data demonstrate the complexity of High Arctic plant responses to changes in winter conditions. Furthermore, our data depict the intricate linkages between winter and summer conditions as they regulate processes such as leaf gas exchange that may control water vapor and CO₂ feedbacks between arctic tundra and the surrounding atmosphere.

Discontinuous permafrost in the North American boreal forest is strongly influenced by the effects of ecological succession on the accumulation of surface organic matter, making permafrost vulnerable to degradation resulting from fire disturbance. To assess factors affecting permafrost degradation after wildfire, we compared vegetation composition and soil properties between recently burned and unburned sites across three soil landscapes (rocky uplands, silty uplands, and sandy lowlands) situated within the Yukon Flats and Yukon-Tanana Uplands in interior Alaska. Mean annual air temperatures at our study sites from 2011 to 2012 were relatively cold (−5.5 ° C) and favorable to permafrost formation. Burning of mature evergreen forests with thick moss covers caused replacement by colonizing species in severely burned areas and recovery of pre-fire understory vegetation in moderately burned areas. Surface organic layer thickness strongly affected thermal regimes and thaw depths. On average, fire caused a five-fold decrease in mean surface organic layer thickness, a doubling of water storage in the active layer, a doubling of thaw depth, an increase in soil temperature at the surface (−0.6 to +2.1 ° C) and at 1 m depth (−1.7 to +0.4 ° C), and a two-fold increase in net soil heat input. Degradation of the upper permafrost occurred at all burned sites, but differences in soil texture and moisture among soil landscapes allowed permafrost to persist beneath the active layer in the silty uplands, whereas a talik of unknown depth developed in the rocky uplands and a thin talik developed in the sandy lowlands. A changing climate and fire regime would undoubtedly influence permafrost in the boreal forest, but the patterns of degradation or stabilization would vary considerably across the discontinuous permafrost zone due to differences in microclimate, successional patterns, and soil characteristics.

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH₄ and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.

Climate-induced changes to permafrost are altering high latitude landscapes in ways that could increase the vulnerability of the vast soil carbon pools of the region. Permafrost thaw is temporally dynamic and spatially heterogeneous because, in addition to the thickening of the active layer, localized thermokarst features form when ice-rich permafrost thaws and the ground subsides. Thermokarst produces a diversity of landforms and alters the physical environment in dynamic ways. To estimate potential changes to the carbon cycle it is imperative to quantify the size and distribution of thermokarst landforms. By performing a supervised classification on a high resolution IKONOS image, we detected and mapped small, irregular thermokarst features occurring within an upland watershed in discontinuous permafrost of Interior Alaska. We found that 12% of the Eight Mile Lake (EML) watershed has undergone thermokarst, predominantly in valleys where tussock tundra resides. About 35% of the 3.7 km² tussock tundra class has likely transitioned to thermokarst. These landscape level changes created by permafrost thaw at EML have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycling because thermokarst features are forming in carbon-rich areas and are altering the hydrology in ways that increase seasonal thawing of the soil.

The diversity of ecosystems across boreal landscapes, successional changes after disturbance and complicated permafrost histories, present enormous challenges for assessing how vegetation, water and soil carbon may respond to climate change in boreal regions. To address this complexity, we used a chronosequence approach to assess changes in vegetation composition, water storage and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks along successional gradients within four landscapes: (1) rocky uplands on ice-poor hillside colluvium, (2) silty uplands on extremely ice-rich loess, (3) gravelly–sandy lowlands on ice-poor eolian sand and (4) peaty–silty lowlands on thick ice-rich peat deposits over reworked lowland loess. In rocky uplands, after fire permafrost thawed rapidly due to low ice contents, soils became well drained and SOC stocks decreased slightly. In silty uplands, after fire permafrost persisted, soils remained saturated and SOC decreased slightly. In gravelly–sandy lowlands where permafrost persisted in drier forest soils, loss of deeper permafrost around lakes has allowed recent widespread drainage of lakes that has exposed limnic material with high SOC to aerobic decomposition. In peaty–silty lowlands, 2–4 m of thaw settlement led to fragmented drainage patterns in isolated thermokarst bogs and flooding of soils, and surface soils accumulated new bog peat. We were not able to detect SOC changes in deeper soils, however, due to high variability. Complicated soil stratigraphy revealed that permafrost has repeatedly aggraded and degraded in all landscapes during the Holocene, although in silty uplands only the upper permafrost was affected. Overall, permafrost thaw has led to the reorganization of vegetation, water storage and flow paths, and patterns of SOC accumulation. However, changes have occurred over different timescales among landscapes: over decades in rocky uplands and gravelly–sandy lowlands in response to fire and lake drainage, over decades to centuries in peaty–silty lowlands with a legacy of complicated Holocene changes, and over centuries in silty uplands where ice-rich soil and ecological recovery protect permafrost.

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost contains nearly a third of all organic matter (OM) stored in circum-arctic permafrost and is characterized by the presence of massive ice wedges. Due to its rapid formation by sediment accumulation and subsequent frozen storage, Yedoma OM is relatively well preserved and highly biologically available (biolabile) upon thaw. A better understanding of the processes regulating Yedoma degradation is important to improve estimates of the response and magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks to climate warming. In this study, we examine the composition of ice wedges and the influence of ice wedge thaw on the biolability of Yedoma OM. Incubation assays were used to assess OM biolability, fluorescence spectroscopy to characterize the OM composition, and potential enzyme activity rates to examine the controls and regulation of OM degradation. We show that increasing amounts of ice wedge melt water in Yedoma-leached incubations enhanced the loss of dissolved OM over time. This may be attributed to the presence of low-molecular weight compounds and low initial phenolic content in the OM of ice wedges, providing a readily available substrate that promotes the degradation of Yedoma OC. The physical vulnerability of ice wedges upon thaw (causing irreversible collapse), combined with the composition of ice wedge-engrained OM (co-metabolizing old OM), underlines the particularly strong potential of Yedoma to generate a positive feedback to climate warming relative to other forms of non-ice wedge permafrost.

Increased snow depth already observed, and that predicted for the future are of critical importance to many geophysical and biological processes as well as human activities. The future characteristics of sub-arctic landscapes where permafrost is particularly vulnerable will depend on complex interactions between snow cover, vegetation and permafrost. An experimental manipulation was, therefore, set up on a lowland peat plateau with permafrost, in northernmost Sweden, to simulate projected future increases in winter precipitation and to study their effects on permafrost and vegetation. After seven years of treatment, statistically significant differences between manipulated and control plots were found in mean winter ground temperatures, which were 1.5 ° C higher in manipulated plots. During the winter, a difference in minimum temperatures of up to 9 ° C higher could be found in individual manipulated plots compared with control plots. Active layer thicknesses increased at the manipulated plots by almost 20% compared with the control plots and a mean surface subsidence of 24 cm was recorded in the manipulated plots compared to 5 cm in the control plots. The graminoid Eriophorum vaginatum has expanded in the manipulated plots and the vegetation remained green longer in the season.

The abundant thaw lakes and ponds in the circumarctic receive a new pool of organic carbon as permafrost peat soils degrade, which can be exposed to significant irradiance that potentially increases as climate warms and ice cover shortens. Exposure to sunlight is known to accelerate the transformation of dissolved organic matter (DOM) into molecules that can be more readily used by microbes. We sampled the water from two common classes of ponds found in the ice-wedge system of continuous permafrost regions of Canada, polygonal and runnel ponds, and followed the transformation of DOM over 12 days by looking at dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and DOM absorption and fluorescence properties. The results indicate a relatively fast decay of color (3.4 and 1.6% loss d⁻¹ of absorption at 320 nm for the polygonal and runnel pond, respectively) and fluorescence (6.1 and 8.3% loss d⁻¹ of total fluorescent components, respectively) at the pond surface, faster in the case of humic-like components, but insignificant losses of DOC over the observed period. This result indicates that direct DOM mineralization (photochemical production of CO₂) is apparently minor in thaw ponds compared to the photochemical transformation of DOM into less chromophoric and likely more labile molecules with a greater potential for microbial mineralization. Therefore, DOM photolysis in arctic thaw ponds can be considered as a catalytic mechanism, accelerating the microbial turnover of mobilized organic matter from thawing permafrost and the production of greenhouse gases, especially in the most shallow ponds. Under a warming climate, this mechanism will intensify as summers lengthen.

Permafrost is tightly coupled to the organic soil layer, an interaction that mediates permafrost degradation in response to regional warming. We analyzed changes in permafrost occurrence and organic layer thickness (OLT) using more than 3000 soil pedons across a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient. Cause and effect relationships between permafrost probability (PF), OLT, and other topographic factors were investigated using structural equation modeling in a multi-group analysis. Groups were defined by slope, soil texture type, and shallow (<28 cm) versus deep organic (≥28 cm) layers. The probability of observing permafrost sharply increased by 0.32 for every 10-cm OLT increase in shallow OLT soils (OLTs) due to an insulation effect, but PF decreased in deep OLT soils (OLTd) by 0.06 for every 10-cm increase. Across the MAT gradient, PF in sandy soils varied little, but PF in loamy and silty soils decreased substantially from cooler to warmer temperatures. The change in OLT was more heterogeneous across soil texture types—in some there was no change while in others OLTs soils thinned and/or OLTd soils thickened at warmer locations. Furthermore, when soil organic carbon was estimated using a relationship with thickness, the average increase in carbon in OLTd soils was almost four times greater compared to the average decrease in carbon in OLTs soils across all soil types. If soils follow a trajectory of warming that mimics the spatial gradients found today, then heterogeneities of permafrost degradation and organic layer thinning and thickening should be considered in the regional carbon balance.

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems?

We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ∼80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ∼30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Climate models project considerable ranges and uncertainties in future climatic changes. To assess the potential impacts of climatic changes on mountain permafrost within these ranges of uncertainty, this study presents a sensitivity analysis using a permafrost process model combined with climate input based on delta-change approaches. Delta values comprise a multitude of coupled air temperature and precipitation changes to analyse long-term, seasonal and seasonal extreme changes on a typical low-ice content mountain permafrost location in the Swiss Alps. The results show that seasonal changes in autumn (SON) have the largest impact on the near-surface permafrost thermal regime in the model, and lowest impacts in winter (DJF). For most of the variability, snow cover duration and timing are the most important factors, whereas maximum snow height only plays a secondary role unless maximum snow heights are very small. At least for the low-ice content site of this study, extreme events have only short-term effects and have less impact on permafrost than long-term air temperature trends.

Future changes of pan-Arctic land–atmospheric methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) depend on how terrestrial ecosystems respond to warming climate. Here, we used a coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to make our estimates of these carbon exchanges with two contrasting climate change scenarios (no-policy versus policy) over the 21st century, by considering (1) a detailed water table dynamics and (2) a permafrost-thawing effect. Our simulations indicate that, under present climate conditions, pan-Arctic terrestrial ecosystems act as a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink of −0.2 Pg CO₂-eq. yr⁻¹, as a result of a CH₄ source (53 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) and a CO₂ sink (−0.4 Pg C yr⁻¹). In response to warming climate, both CH₄ emissions and CO₂ uptakes are projected to increase over the century, but the increasing rates largely depend on the climate change scenario. Under the non-policy scenario, the CH₄ source and CO₂ sink are projected to increase by 60% and 75% by 2100, respectively, while the GHG sink does not show a significant trend. Thawing permafrost has a small effect on GHG sink under the policy scenario; however, under the no-policy scenario, about two thirds of the accumulated GHG sink over the 21st century has been offset by the carbon losses as CH₄ and CO₂ from thawing permafrost. Over the century, nearly all CO₂-induced GHG sink through photosynthesis has been undone by CH₄-induced GHG source. This study indicates that increasing active layer depth significantly affects soil carbon decomposition in response to future climate change. The methane emissions considering more detailed water table dynamics continuously play an important role in affecting regional radiative forcing in the pan-Arctic.

Changes in permafrost distribution in the southern discontinuous zone were evaluated by repeating a 1964 survey through part of the Alaska Highway corridor (56° N–61° N) in northwest Canada. A total of 55 sites from the original survey in northern British Columbia and southern Yukon were located using archival maps and photographs. Probing for frozen ground, manual excavations, air and ground temperature monitoring, borehole drilling and geophysical techniques were used to gather information on present-day permafrost and climatic conditions. Mean annual air temperatures have increased by 1.5–2.0 ° C since the mid-1970s and significant degradation of permafrost has occurred. Almost half of the permafrost sites along the entire transect which exhibited permafrost in 1964 do so no longer. This change is especially evident in the south where two-thirds of the formerly permafrost sites have thawed and the limit of permafrost appears to have shifted northward. The permafrost that persists is patchy, generally less than 15 m thick, has mean annual surface temperatures >0 ° C, mean ground temperatures between −0.5 and 0 ° C, is in peat or beneath a thick organic mat, and appears to have a thicker active layer than in 1964. Its persistence may relate to the latent heat requirements of thawing permafrost or to the large thermal offset of organic soils. The study demonstrates that degradation of permafrost has occurred in the margins of its distribution in the last few decades, a trend that is expected to continue as the climate warms.

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m⁻² on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.

Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km² study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m²) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (<1.4 m asl) as well as the lasting impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods.

Permafrost is common to many northern wetlands given the insulation of thick organic soil layers, although soil saturation in wetlands can lead to warmer soils and increased thaw depth. We analyzed five years of soil CO₂ fluxes along a wetland gradient that varied in permafrost and soil moisture conditions. We predicted that communities with permafrost would have reduced ecosystem respiration (ER) but greater temperature sensitivity than communities without permafrost. These predictions were partially supported. The colder communities underlain by shallow permafrost had lower ecosystem respiration (ER) than communities with greater active layer thickness. However, the apparent Q₁₀ of monthly averaged ER was similar in most of the vegetation communities except the rich fen, which had smaller Q₁₀ values. Across the gradient there was a negative relationship between water table position and apparent Q₁₀, showing that ER was more temperature sensitive under drier soil conditions. We explored whether root respiration could account for differences in ER between two adjacent communities (sedge marsh and rich fen), which corresponded to the highest and lowest ER, respectively. Despite differences in root respiration rates, roots contributed equally (∼40%) to ER in both communities. Also, despite similar plant biomass, ER in the rich fen was positively related to root biomass, while ER in the sedge marsh appeared to be related more to vascular green area. Our results suggest that ER across this wetland gradient was temperature-limited, until conditions became so wet that respiration became oxygen-limited and influenced less by temperature. But even in sites with similar hydrology and thaw depth, ER varied significantly likely based on factors such as soil redox status and vegetation composition.

The Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska is characterized by thermokarst lakes and drained lake basins, and the rate of coastal erosion has increased during the last half-century. Portions of the coast are <1 m above sea level for kilometers inland, and are underlain by ice-rich permafrost. Increased storm surges or terrestrial subsidence would therefore expand the area subject to marine inundation. Since 1976, the distribution of molting Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) on the Arctic Coastal Plain has shifted from inland freshwater lakes to coastal marshes, such as those occupying the Smith River and Garry Creek estuaries. We hypothesized that the movement of geese from inland lakes was caused by an expansion of high quality goose forage in coastal areas. We examined the recent history of vegetation and geomorphological changes in coastal goose habitat by combining analysis of time series imagery between 1948 and 2010 with soil stratigraphy dated using bomb-curve radiocarbon. Time series of vertical imagery and in situ verification showed permafrost thaw and subsidence of polygonal tundra. Soil stratigraphy and dating within coastal estuaries showed that non-saline vegetation communities were buried by multiple sedimentation episodes between 1948 and 1995, accompanying a shift toward salt-tolerant vegetation. This sedimentation allowed high quality goose forage plants to expand, thus facilitating the shift in goose distribution. Declining sea ice and the increasing rate of terrestrial inundation, sedimentation, and subsidence in coastal estuaries of Alaska may portend a 'tipping point' whereby inland areas would be transformed into salt marshes.

Warming of the arctic landscape results in permafrost thaw, which causes ground subsidence or thermokarst. Thermokarst formation on hillslopes leads to the formation of thermal erosion features that dramatically alter soil properties and likely affect soil carbon emissions, but such features have received little study in this regard. In order to assess the magnitude and persistence of altered emissions, we use a space-for-time substitution (thaw slump chronosequence) to quantify and compare peak growing season soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes from undisturbed tundra, active, and stabilized thermal erosion features over two seasons. Measurements of soil temperature and moisture, soil organic matter, and bulk density are used to evaluate the factors controlling soil CO₂ emissions from each of the three chronosequence stages. Soil CO₂ efflux from the active slump is consistently less than half that observed in the undisturbed tundra or stabilized slump (1.8 versus 5.2 g CO₂−C m⁻² d⁻¹ in 2011; 0.9 versus 3.2 g CO₂−C m⁻² d⁻¹ in 2012), despite soil temperatures on the floor of the active slump that are 10–15 ^°C warmer than the tundra and stabilized slump. Environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture do not exert a strong control on CO₂ efflux, rather, local soil physical and chemical properties such as soil organic matter and bulk density, are strongly and inversely related among these chronosequence stages (r² = 0.97), and explain ∼50% of the variation in soil CO₂ efflux. Thus, despite profound soil warming and rapid exposure of buried carbon in the active slump, the low organic matter content, lack of stable vegetation, and large increases in the bulk densities in the uppermost portion of active slump soils (up to ∼2.2 g⁻¹ cm⁻³) appear to limit CO₂ efflux from the active slump. Future studies should assess seasonal fluxes across these features and determine whether soil CO₂ fluxes from active features with high organic content are similarly low.

Catchment export of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) and its downstream degradation in aquatic ecosystems are important components of landscape scale carbon balances. In order to assess the influence of peatland permafrost on river DOM characteristics, we sampled 65 rivers along a 900 km transect crossing into the southern discontinuous permafrost zone on the Boreal and Tundra Plains of western Canada. Catchment peatland cover and catchment location north or south of the permafrost boundary were found together to have strong influences on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DOM chemical composition. River DOC concentrations increased with catchment peatland cover, but were consistently lower for catchments north of the permafrost boundary. In contrast, protein fluorescence (PARAFAC analysis), was unrelated to catchment peatland cover but increased significantly in rivers north of the permafrost boundary. Humic and fulvic acid contribution to DOM fluorescence was lower in rivers draining catchments with large lakes than in other rivers, consistent with extensive photodegradation, but humic and fulvic acid fluorescence were also lower in rivers north of the permafrost boundary than in rivers to the south. We hypothesize that shifts in river DOM characteristics when crossing the permafrost boundary are related to the influence of permafrost on peatland hydrological connectivity to stream networks, peatland DOM characteristics and differences in DOM degradation within aquatic ecosystems.

Continental Antarctica represents the last pristine environment on Earth and is one of the most suitable contexts to analyze the relations between climate, active layer and vegetation. In 2000 we started long-term monitoring of the climate, permafrost, active layer and vegetation in Victoria Land, continental Antarctica. Our data confirm the stability of mean annual and summer air temperature, of snow cover, and an increasing trend of summer incoming short wave radiation. The active layer thickness is increasing at a rate of 0.3 cm y⁻¹. The active layer is characterized by large annual and spatial differences. The latter are due to scarce vegetation, a patchy and very thin organic layer and large spatial differences in snow accumulation.

The active layer thickening, probably due to the increase of incoming short wave radiation, produced a general decrease of the ground water content due to the better drainage of the ground. The resultant drying may be responsible for the decline of mosses in xeric sites, while it provided better conditions for mosses in hydric sites, following the species-specific water requirements. An increase of lichen vegetation was observed where the climate drying occurred. This evidence emphasizes that the Antarctic continent is experiencing changes that are in total contrast to the changes reported from maritime Antarctica.

Projected warming is expected to alter the Arctic permafrost regime with potential impacts on hydrological fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and sediment. Previous work has focused on large Arctic basins and revealed the important contribution of old carbon in river POC, but little is known about POC fluxes from smaller coastal watersheds, particularly where widespread postglacial raised marine sediments represent a potential source of old soil carbon that could be mobilized by permafrost disturbance. To evaluate these processes, the characteristics of POC, particulate nitrogen (PN) and suspended sediment transport from paired small coastal Arctic watersheds subject to recent permafrost disturbance were investigated at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO) in the Canadian High Arctic. Approximately 2% of the total suspended sediment load from both watersheds was composed of POC and the majority of the sediment and POC fluxes occurred during the spring snowmelt period. Radiocarbon analysis of POC indicates recent permafrost disturbances deliver substantially older POC to the aquatic system. Localized permafrost slope disturbances have a measurable influence on downstream POC age and dominate (estimated up to 78% of POC) sediment fluxes during summer baseflow. The elevation of disturbances and Holocene emergence data show limited age sensitivity of POC to the location of disturbance and suggest slope failures are likely to deliver carbon with a relatively similar age range to the aquatic system, regardless of landscape location.

Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO₂ (4.0 Pg C) and CH₄ (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO₂ uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.

Thaw of ice-rich permafrost soils on sloping terrain can trigger erosional disturbance events that displace large volumes of soil and sediment, kill and damage plants, and initiate secondary succession. We examined how retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), a common form of thermo-erosional disturbance in arctic tundra, affected the local loss and re-accumulation of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools in organic and surface mineral soil horizons of 18 slumps within six spatially independent sites in arctic Alaska. RTS displaced 3 kg C and 0.2 kg N per m² from the soil organic horizon but did not alter pools of C and N in the top 15 cm of the mineral horizon. Surface soil C pools re-accumulated rapidly (32 ± 10 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) through the first 60 years of succession, reaching levels similar to undisturbed tundra 40–64 years after disturbance. Average N re-accumulation rates (2.2 ± 1.1 g N m⁻² yr⁻¹) were much higher than expected from atmospheric deposition and biological N fixation. Finally, plant community dominance shifted from graminoids to tall deciduous shrubs, which are likely to promote higher primary productivity, biomass accumulation, and rates of nutrient cycling.

Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.

Thermo-erosion gullies in continuous permafrost regions where ice-wedge polygons are widespread contribute and change the drainage of periglacial landscapes. Gullying processes are causing long-term impacts to the Arctic landscape such as drainage network restructuring, permafrost erosion, sediment transport. Between 2009 and 2013, 35 gullies were mapped in a polygon terrace in the valley of the Glacier C-79 on Bylot Island, Nunavut (Canada), one of which was monitored for its hydrology. A gully (R08p) initiated in 1999 in a low-center polygon terrace. Between 1999 and 2013, 202 polygons over a surface of 28 891 m² were breached by gullying. Overall, 1401 polygons were similarly breached on the terrace in the valley before 2013. R08p is fed by a 1.74 km² watershed and the hydrological regime is characterized by peak flows of 0.69 m³ s⁻¹ and a cumulative volume of 229 662 m³ for 2013. Historic aerial photography from 1972 and recent field surveys showed a change in the paths of water tracks and an increase in channelized flow in the gully area from none to 35% of the overall flow path of the section. The overall eroded area for the studied gullies in the valley up to 2013 was estimated at 158 000 m² and a potential volume close to 200 000 m³. Gullying processes increased drainage of wetlands and the hydrological connectivity in the valley, while lowering residence time of water near gullied areas.

Climate warming affects permafrost soil carbon pools in two opposing ways: enhanced vegetation growth leads to higher carbon inputs to the soil, whereas permafrost melting accelerates decomposition and hence carbon release. Here, we study the spatial and temporal dynamics of these two processes under scenarios of climate change and evaluate their influence on the carbon balance of the permafrost zone. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, which simulates plant physiological and ecological processes and includes a newly developed discrete layer energy balance permafrost module and a vertical carbon distribution within the soil layer. The model is able to reproduce the interactions between vegetation and soil carbon dynamics as well as to simulate dynamic permafrost changes resulting from changes in the climate. We find that vegetation responds more rapidly to warming of the permafrost zone than soil carbon pools due to long time lags in permafrost thawing, and that the initial simulated net uptake of carbon may continue for some decades of warming. However, once the turning point is reached, if carbon release exceeds uptake, carbon is lost irreversibly from the system and cannot be compensated for by increasing vegetation carbon input. Our analysis highlights the importance of including dynamic vegetation and long-term responses into analyses of permafrost zone carbon budgets.

Permafrost soils store over half of global soil carbon (C), and northern frozen peatlands store about 10% of global permafrost C. With thaw, inundation of high latitude lowland peatlands typically increases the surface-atmosphere flux of methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas. To examine the effects of lowland permafrost thaw over millennial timescales, we measured carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄ exchange along sites that constitute a ∼1000 yr thaw chronosequence of thermokarst collapse bogs and adjacent fen locations at Innoko Flats Wildlife Refuge in western Alaska. Peak CH₄ exchange in July (123 ± 71 mg CH₄–C m⁻² d⁻¹) was observed in features that have been thawed for 30 to 70 (<100) yr, where soils were warmer than at more recently thawed sites (14 to 21 yr; emitting 1.37 ± 0.67 mg CH₄–C m⁻² d⁻¹ in July) and had shallower water tables than at older sites (200 to 1400 yr; emitting 6.55 ± 2.23 mg CH₄–C m⁻² d⁻¹ in July). Carbon lost via CH₄ efflux during the growing season at these intermediate age sites was 8% of uptake by net ecosystem exchange. Our results provide evidence that CH₄ emissions following lowland permafrost thaw are enhanced over decadal time scales, but limited over millennia. Over larger spatial scales, adjacent fen systems may contribute sustained CH₄ emission, CO₂ uptake, and DOC export. We argue that over timescales of decades to centuries, thaw features in high-latitude lowland peatlands, particularly those developed on poorly drained mineral substrates, are a key locus of elevated CH₄ emission to the atmosphere that must be considered for a complete understanding of high latitude CH₄ dynamics.