Focus on the Social-Ecological Future of the American West

Carnivore and humans live in proximity due to carnivore recovery efforts and ongoing human encroachment into carnivore habitats globally. The American West is a region that uniquely exemplifies these human-carnivore dynamics, however, it is unclear how the research community here integrates social and ecological factors to examine human-carnivore relations. Therefore, strategies promoting human-carnivore coexistence are urgently needed. We conducted a systematic review on human-carnivore relations in the American West covering studies between 2000 and 2018. We first characterized human-carnivore relations across states of the American West. Second, we analyzed similarities and dissimilarities across states in terms of coexistence, tolerance, number of ecosystem services and conflicts mentioned in literature. Third, we used Bayesian modeling to quantify the effect of social and ecological factors influencing the scientific interest on coexistence, tolerance, ecosystem services and conflicts. Results revealed some underlying biases in human-carnivore relations research. Colorado and Montana were the states where the highest proportion of studies were conducted with bears and wolves the most studied species. Non-lethal management was the most common strategy to mitigate conflicts. Overall, conflicts with carnivores were much more frequently mentioned than benefits. We found similarities among Arizona, California, Utah, and New Mexico according to how coexistence, tolerance, services and conflicts are addressed in literature. We identified percentage of federal/private land, carnivore family, social actors, and management actions, as factors explaining how coexistence, tolerance, conflicts and services are addressed in literature. We provide a roadmap to foster tolerance towards carnivores and successful coexistence strategies in the American West based on four main domains, (1) the dual role of carnivores as providers of both beneficial and detrimental contributions to people, (2) social-ecological factors underpinning the provision of beneficial and detrimental contributions, (3) the inclusion of diverse actors, and (4) cross-state collaborative management.

Despite the trade-offs between renewable energy development, land use, humans, and wildlife, wind and solar development continues to transform the western US into a green energy landscape. While renewable energy reduces carbon emissions and reliance on fossil fuels, many studies have emerged on the associated ecological and social impacts of this technology. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the nexus between wildlife conservation and energy development in the western US since 2010. We revisit pertinent ecological concepts presented in earlier reviews to assess how far the field has progressed in mitigating negative effects. Specifically, we examine: (i) recent trends in the literature on how wind and solar energy development impact wildlife in the US, (ii) how siting and design of development may maximize energy benefits while minimizing negative effects on wildlife, (iii) the availability and benefits of before-after control-impact studies, and ultimately (iv) how impacts of renewable energy development on wildlife may be mitigated. We also provide case studies on the desert tortoise and greater sage-grouse, two conservation-reliant umbrella species in the western US, to highlight efforts to mitigate the effects of solar and wind energy development, respectively. We recognize that many other species are affected by renewable energy development, but desert tortoises and sage-grouse are representative of the conflicts that need to be addressed. Our review concludes that mitigation can be improved via use of spatial decision support tools, applying novel wildlife deterrence and detection systems developed for existing installed facilities, and incorporating impact studies that provide managers with conservation metrics for evaluating different future development land-use scenarios.

Wildfire is a growing threat in the western US, driven by high fuel loads, a warming climate, and rising human activity in the wildland urban interface. Diverse stakeholders must collaborate to mitigate risk and adapt to changing conditions. Communication strategies in collaborative efforts may be most effective if they align with local perspectives on wildfire and climate change. We investigate drivers of residents' subjective perceptions regarding both issues in eastern Oregon using 2018 survey data, and examine objective evidence regarding local fuel loads, climate, and wildfire to identify trends and contextualize residents' perceptions. We find that sociopolitical identity strongly predicts climate change beliefs, and that identity and climate beliefs predict both perceptions of recent past climate and likely future trends. Political influences on climate perceptions are strongest among people whose friends mostly belong to the same party. In contrast, perceptions about future wildfire risks are largely independent of climate-change beliefs, and of individual or peer-group politics. Most people accurately perceive the rising frequency of large wildfires, and expect this trend to continue. Decision makers have an opportunity to engage diverse stakeholders in developing policies to mitigate increasing wildfire risk without invoking climate change, which remains politically polarizing in some communities.

National forests in the United States are undergoing a spatially and temporally uneven governance transition in response to Congressional policies, agency mandates, and social and economic pressures, with many moving from a wholly state-led 'dominant federal' model to a more collaborative networked governance model which we refer to as 'social forestry'. While the broad contours of this transition have been observed and studied previously, there have been few attempts to characterize it using quantitative, qualitative, or geospatial methods. Here, we combine a novel remote sensing-based method with qualitative social science research to understand the emergence of social forestry and its implications for land use/land cover change associated with implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) in the Western Cascades of Oregon. We linked time-series satellite data with forest inventory data to track patterns of timber harvest at scales commensurate with timber management decision-making. We then compared these patterns to policy-based expectations. We found a significant disconnect between NWFP policy and actual timber harvest patterns, raising questions about the effectiveness of the NWFP land use allocation system and the 'land sparing' approach to managing tensions between conservation and production. Qualitative research, including semi-structured interviews with federal agency personnel and local stakeholders, shed light on the causal mechanisms and reciprocal relationships driving spatial patterns of timber harvesting, which we discuss in terms of the emergence of social forestry involving complex, place-based negotiations between the federal government and local veto actors advocating for conservation. Findings have implications for US Forest Service public engagement strategies and efforts to establish zones of agreement regarding timber harvesting, as well as broader discussions about the agency's future.

Collaborative, or participatory governance is an increasingly common means of addressing natural resource issues, especially in the American West where patchworks of public, private, and tribal interests characterize the region's resources. In this context, unlikely alliances, or partnerships among diverse actors who have historically been at odds, have a growing potential to shape social and ecological outcomes, for better or worse. While these unlikely alliances have received greater attention in recent years, relatively little research has worked to synthesize the concept across diverse contexts and disciplines. Based on a review of the literature on unlikely alliances in natural resource governance, we develop a framework that synthesizes the individual motivations and contextual factors that influence their formation, as well as the social and ecological outcomes that they create. We use this framework to analyze six illustrative cases of unlikely alliances. Our analysis of these cases suggests that unlikely alliances in the American West are likely to arise in the presence of a crisis, when appropriate leadership is present, when some of the actors have interacted effectively in the past, and when actors need to pool resources. The cases also illustrate some common outcomes, including environmental improvement, transformation of social networks, policy change, and shifts in power relationships. We discuss the implications of unlikely alliances for the social-ecological future of the American West. Our paper highlights the role of unlikely alliances in shaping patterns of natural resource governance, and provides a focus for further research in this realm.

Large-scale, high-severity wildfires are a major challenge to the future social-ecological sustainability of fire-adapted forest ecosystems in the American West. Managing forests to mitigate this risk is a collective action problem requiring landowners and stakeholders within multi-ownership landscapes to plan and implement coordinated restoration treatments. Our research question is: how can we promote collective action to reduce wildfire risk and restore fire-resilient forests in the American West? To address this question we draw on collective action theory to produce an environmental public good (fire-resilient forests), and empirical examples of collective action from six projects that are part of the US Forest Service–Natural Resources Conservation Service Joint Chiefs' Landscape Restoration Partnership. Our findings are based on qualitative, semi-structured interviews conducted with 104 individuals who were purposively selected to represent the diverse stakeholders involved in these projects. Fostering collective action to restore fire-resilient forests entails getting as many landowners (especially large landowners) to participate in wildfire risk reduction as possible to increase its areal extent; and landowner coordination in planning and implementing strategically-designed restoration treatments to optimize their effectiveness. We identify factors that enabled and constrained landowner participation and coordination in the Joint Chiefs' projects. Based on our findings and theory about when collective action will emerge, we specify a suite of practices to promote collective action for wildfire risk reduction across property boundaries, emphasizing incentives and enabling conditions. These include proactive education and outreach targeting landowners; multi-stakeholder processes with broad landowner representation to develop coordinated management approaches; financial and technical assistance to support fuels treatments on all ownerships within similar time frames; strong partnerships; and using common forestry professionals to plan and implement treatments on different ownerships (especially private lands). Our findings can inform cross-boundary management for landscape-scale conservation and restoration in other contexts.

This article examines static-data assumptions trapped in water rights and, separately, in larger interstate river compacts in the American West. These reflect assumptions of scalar stationarity embedded in water codes in western states. State water adjudications sort how much water is being used, but the resulting data are often publicly unavailable and unchanged. Interstate river compacts often divide fixed, erroneous river flow data. River compact data, based on early 20th century optimistic estimates of river flow, have not changed in policy language. At both the micro- and the macro-scale, these separate data remain fixed, complicating water management in the American West.

Large and severe wildfires are an observable consequence of an increasingly arid American West. There is increasing consensus that human communities, land managers, and fire managers need to adapt and learn to live with wildfires. However, a myriad of human and ecological factors constrain adaptation, and existing science-based management strategies are not sufficient to address fire as both a problem and solution. To that end, we present a novel risk-science approach that aligns wildfire response decisions, mitigation opportunities, and land management objectives by consciously integrating social, ecological and fire management system needs. We use fire-prone landscapes of the US Pacific Northwest as our study area, and report on and describe how three complementary risk-based analytic tools—quantitative wildfire risk assessment, mapping of suppression difficulty, and atlases of potential control locations—can form the foundation for adaptive governance in fire management. Together, these tools integrate wildfire risk with fire management difficulties and opportunities, providing a more complete picture of the wildfire risk management challenge. Leveraging recent and ongoing experience integrating local experiential knowledge with these tools, we provide examples and discuss how these geospatial datasets create a risk-based planning structure that spans multiple spatial scales and uses. These uses include pre-planning strategic wildfire response, implementing safe wildfire response balancing risk with likelihood of success, and alignment of non-wildfire mitigation opportunities to support wildfire risk management more directly. We explicitly focus on multi-jurisdictional landscapes to demonstrate how these tools highlight the shared responsibility of wildfire risk mitigation. By integrating quantitative risk science, expert judgement and adaptive co-management, this process provides a much-needed pathway to transform fire-prone social ecological systems to be more responsive and adaptable to change and live with fire in an increasingly arid American West.

A critical frontier of water management in the western US is the challenge of cross-scale interactions. It is difficult to establish clear governance boundaries and collectively act when basins are interconnected, surface water and groundwater flows are interrelated, and urban and rural water demands are increasingly affected by regional and international telecoupling. Changing climate, snowpack, and rainfall, peri-urbanization, and shifting economics of rural landscapes further increase sustainable governance challenges. Using a lens of cross-scale interactions drawn from the social-ecological literature, we develop a set of conceptual frames for socio-hydrology that highlight: (1) spatial and temporal mismatches, (2) telecoupled flows, and (3) networked and nested systems. Using the exemplary case of Central Arizona, we explore nesting of the system within the larger western socio-hydrological system (SHS), impacts of changing Colorado River policies, such as the Drought Contingency Plan, and emerging institutional arrangements between the State of Arizona, agricultural communities, and Tribal Nations. We conclude with a set of questions that inform analyses of cross-scale, multi-level governance within social-ecological systems. Without grappling with the dynamics and interconnectedness of SHSs, we cannot sustainably manage water in an increasingly arid West.

Wildfire risk is a defining environmental challenge throughout much of the American West, as well as in other regions where complex social and ecological dynamics defy simple policy or management solutions. In such settings, diverse forms of land use, livelihoods, and accompanying values provide the conditions for trade-offs (e.g. between protecting homes from uncontrollable fires and restoring low-severity fire to ecosystems as a natural disturbance process). Addressing wildfire risk requires grappling with these trade-offs at multiple levels—given the need for action by individuals as well as by large and diverse stakeholder groups—and under conditions of considerable complexity. We evaluated how individual and collective perception of trade-offs varies as a function of complexity through analysis of the cognitive maps—representations of perceived causal relationships among factors that structure an individual's understanding of a system—of 111 stakeholders in the Eastern Cascades Ecoregion of central Oregon. Bayesian statistical analysis revealed a strong tendency against perception of trade-offs in individual maps, but not in a collective map that resulted from the aggregation of all individual cognitive maps. Furthermore, we found that lags (the number of factors that mediated the effect of an action on multiple valued outcomes) limited perception of trade-offs. Each additional intervening factor decreased the likelihood of a trade-off by approximately 52% in individual cognitive maps and by 10% in the collective cognitive map. However, the heterogeneity of these factors increased the likelihood of perception of trade-offs, particularly among individual cognitive maps, for which each unit increase of the Shannon diversity index translated into a 20-fold increase in the likelihood of perception of trade-offs. Taken together, these results suggest that features of complexity have distinct effects on individual—and collective-level perception of trade-offs. We discuss implications for wildfire risk decision-making in central Oregon and in other complex wildfire-prone social-ecological systems.

The consistent and robust assessment of ecosystem carbon stocks remains central to developing and monitoring climate change mitigation strategies. Here, we investigate the dynamics of forest ecosystem carbon stocks in the conterminous United States between 1907 and 2012 at national and regional levels. We build upon timber volume records from historical forest inventories and use a modelling approach to include all relevant pools, e.g. soil carbon, to derive a comprehensive long-term dataset. We find a consistent increase in forest carbon stocks across the country, from 27 PgC in 1907 to 39 PgC in 2012, with persistent regional variations between western and eastern United States, signalling pronounced land use and land management legacy effects. We identify additional potential to increase forest C sinks in both west and east, on diverging levels. Extended forest C stocks stem from forest biomass thickening i.e. increases in biomass C densities, rather than forest area expansion. Our study reflects the first such effort to collectively understand the effects of environmental change and land management on contemporary biomass C stocks at the national level, and critically engages with ongoing initiatives towards assessing the potential for carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems.

Reviewing recent social science research on the western United States from multiple disciplines, we present a state-of-the-art synthesis for scholars and policymakers focused on the socioecological future of this distinctive region. We address four core topics: (1) Migration and population change, focusing on the movements of people across the US West, and the ways that these population shifts are both shaped by and shaping the rise of 'New West' economies. (2) Environmental governance, synthesizing work on non-federal government institutions' interactions with the environment, including local/regional government agencies, Indigenous nations, and non-governmental organizations—all of which shape environmental quality and resource access for communities. (3) Place, culture, and belonging, which concerns how people find meaning in their environment and locate their sense of place in the region given changing social and natural landscapes. (4) Research methodologies, with a specific focus on blending cutting-edge machine learning, and social network approaches with well-established ethnographic, demographic, and survey-based methods. We then map out a future interdisciplinary agenda for the policy-relevant study of social and environmental change in the US West. Our approach stresses the importance of mixed method social research and a robust understanding of how culture, values, and identities intersect with ecological changes on landscapes to shape the well-being of people and ecosystems.

The sustainability of agriculture in the American West depends on the capacity of farmers to adapt to water resource constraints. Most US studies of agricultural adaptations measure farmers' willingness to adopt various water use reduction strategies, meaning we have little empirical data on which strategies farmers implement and how these decisions impact their farms. We use survey data from 265 farmers in southeastern Idaho who, beginning in 2016, were required to cut annual groundwater withdrawals by 4%–20% to identify (1) the adaptation practices farmers implemented; (2) how reported crop yields and farm income were impacted; and (3) how adaptation practices varied by farm and farmer characteristics. We found the most commonly used adaptations were reduced spending, installation of more efficient irrigation systems or less frequent watering, and changing crop rotations. Farmers reported losing on average 7.6% of their yield and 8.4% of their income over the first two years of the water cuts. We found no systematic variation based on specific farm or farmer characteristics. Drawing on these results and prior research, we present a typology of adaptation categories intended to inform future research, allow comparisons to adaptation strategies elsewhere, and assist policymakers in designing effective policy interventions.

Public demand for outdoor recreation has proved a major impetus for land protection in the United States since the mid-twentieth century, particularly in the US West. Many federal, state, and municipal conservation tools—policies, management programs, and funding initiatives—aim to ensure recreation access to public lands in conjunction with natural resources protection. However, as recreation use increases, driven by amenity migration and economic development, land managers face a growing challenge in balancing the trade-offs between recreation access and other conservation objectives. Drawing on original archival research, we describe the strong policy ties between outdoor recreation and conservation that emerged in the post-World War II era in response to widespread urbanization. Through semi-structured interviews with land managers, we assess the implications of those policy decisions for today's public land managers. Current management challenges include: poor visitor awareness of the cumulative impacts of recreation activity, resistance by local communities and user groups to restrictions on recreation access, insufficient scientific data to guide management decisions, and limited resources to manage recreationists and enforce regulations. We conclude by proposing strategies to promote sustainable management of multiple-use landscapes through targeted research, application of conservation planning principles, and enhanced cooperation among jurisdictions.

The American West exists in the popular imagination as a distinct region, and policies and politics often suggest that both the challenges and the opportunities for land management and human well-being across the region are relatively homogeneous. In this paper, we argue that there are key characteristics that define the West as a social-ecological region, and also that there are myriad social-ecological systems (SESs) within the region that require diverse and dynamic approaches to managing change over time. We first conceptualize aridity, topography, and a unique political economy of land as exogenous factors that persist over time and space to define the American West as a contiguous social-ecological region. We then identify a second set of characteristics that show high degrees of variation across SESs within the American West. Finally, we operationalize the relationships between regional characteristics and local dynamics through a set of case studies that exemplify specific types of SESs in the region. The results of these empirical representations of the regional and intra-regional social-ecological dynamics of the contemporary American West highlight the implications for research and management of taking a cross-scale integrated approach to address pressing social-ecological opportunities and challenges in complex adaptive systems.

Managing complex social-ecological systems in an era of rapid climate change and changing human pressures represents a major challenge in sustainability science. The Sierra Nevada, USA is a large social-ecological system facing a tipping point that could result in major ecosystem changes. A century of fire suppression and climate change have set the stage for mega-disturbances that threaten biodiversity, human life and values, ecosystem services, and forest persistence. Stakeholders face multidimensional and often contentious trade-offs with costs and benefits that can be mismatched in space and time. If compromises cannot be reached, the status quo is likely to continue, resulting in the conversion of large portions of a 100 000 km² predominately mixed-conifer forest ecosystem to a chaparral-dominated ecosystem. We describe the outcomes of a continuation of the ecological status quo on biodiversity, cultural history, fire management, recreational value, and climate control, including indirect effects on water and food security and recreation. The social-ecological ramifications of such a future are undesirable for most stakeholders. Therefore, we contend that forest management conflicts should be framed in terms of the cost of failure of negotiations among stakeholders. Specifically, negotiations may benefit from (1) stakeholders quantifying their definitions of success and failure, (2) quantification of trade-offs and recognition of their multidimensionality, and (3) allowing for solutions that are heterogeneous in space and time. This approach may help stakeholders navigate the wicked problem of managing Sierra Nevada forests and other complex social-ecological systems.