Modelling Electric Energy Availability Toward Popupation Growth and Land Conversion in Padang Lawas Regency

Electricity consumption in Padang Lawas Regency has increased every year, namely 59,962,000 kWh in 2018, and reached 74,060320,5 kWh in 2020. This increase is in line with the population growth rate so that it also has an impact on land availability. Forecasting electricity consumption absolutely must be done because it greatly affects the distribution and availability of electrical energy. There are three problems related to electrical energy resources. First, the availability of electricity will decrease as demand increases. The second is the increase in population which has an impact on improving the quality of life of the community and the availability of electricity. Third, the increase in land conversion is increasingly massive, causing population density and energy needs in the region to increase. For this reason, it is necessary to project the need for electrical energy for the population and land conversion in Padang Lawas Regency in 2021-2050. The objectives of this study can be used as a basis and choice for policy and strategy making in regional development planning by the Padang Lawas Regional Government. This is done so that the problem of electricity availability can be resolved. This research was conducted using the PowerSim Studio 10 application by simulating a dynamic system model involving several variables that influence each other. The results showed that population variables affect land requirements and total energy consumption. Analysis of electricity availability in Padang Lawas Regency until 2050 will experience an increase in electricity consumption accompanied by an increase in population and land conversion. Based on the results of the simulation scenario, the availability of electricity in Padang Lawas Regency can meet the total electricity consumption needs until 2050, either with or without intervention.