Development of the sustainable human development index model in West Papua

The West Papua Province has declared itself a sustainable development province by implementing various programs to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs). The social, environmental, and economic factors in West Papua need to be linked to improving the HDI as one of the programs to achieve SDGs. The declining poverty rate in West Papua Province in 2010-2018 has had a significant impact on increasing the HDI of West Papua. This study aims to identify factors that affect the HDI and the dynamics and predictions concerning the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), agricultural sector development, and low-carbon development. This study uses the system dynamic method to understand the economic and environmental variables that affect the human development index. The simulation results indicate that the national GHG emission target can be achieved by a GRDP correction of 162.66 billion based on scenario 1 (29% reduction) and 115.55 billion based on scenario 2 (41% reduction). However, the West Papua HDI will only be corrected by 0.3 (Scenario 1) and 0.2 (Scenario 2). In conclusion, the total GRDP of West Papua was corrected with emission reduction under the 41% reduction scenario, but it does not significantly affect the HDI of West Papua Province.