Reservoir dam operating risk dynamics modelling for safety control in the emergency response process

As revealed by the dam break accident investigation statistics, flawed organizational behavior determines the safety level of the reservoir dam. Its operating risk revolution process involves water, disaster, relief material dispatching, information interaction, and so on. The multiple information transferring mode and dynamic processes perform with the characteristics of the social-technical system, but little prior research on the risk causality can be found in such a view. The traditional risk analysis and assessment techniques based on linear accident model and the partial probability calculation cannot effectively satisfy the requirements for dam-break emergency decision-making in a dynamic and systematic way. Based on the system dynamics approach, this study proposed risk dynamics models aiming for risk interaction mechanisms involving organizational, human, and technical system factors leading to dam break. The models guided the development of a quantitative risk assessment tool to integrate relevant professional modules and data. The derived policy suggestions which guarantee the life and property of downstream residents can improve the abilities of dam operating management organization for more effective responses under emergency circumstances.