Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
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Environmental Research: Climate is a multidisciplinary, open access journal devoted to addressing important challenges concerning the physical science and assessment of climate systems and global change in a way that bridges efforts relating to impact/future risks, resilience, mitigation, adaptation, security and solutions in the broadest sense. For detailed information about subject coverage see the About the journal section.
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Ben Clarke et al 2022 Environ. Res.: Climate 1 012001
Edward Hanna et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042004
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex's zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
Daniel M Gilford et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 045019
Understanding how rising global air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence tropical cyclone intensities is crucial for assessing current and future storm risks. Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically-warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability. These counterfactual scenarios affect the quantification and significance of attributable changes in hurricane potential and observed actual intensities since pre-industrial. A summary of attributable influences on hurricanes during five recent North Atlantic hurricane seasons (2019–2023) and a case study of Hurricane Ian (2022) reveal that human-driven SST shifts have already driven robust changes in 84% of recent observed hurricane intensities. Hurricanes during the 2019–2023 seasons were 8.3 m s−1 faster, on average, than they would have been in a world without climate change. The attribution framework's design and application, highlight the potential for this framework to support climate communication.
Friederike E L Otto et al 2023 Environ. Res.: Climate 2 025001
As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.
Joanna Aldridge and Rob Bell 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 012001
In 2023, New Zealand experienced two consecutive weather-related events that exceeded previous insured losses by more than a factor of ten: the Auckland Anniversary Day floods and ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Further, climate reporting for financial services becomes mandatory in this jurisdiction in 2024, yet established catastrophe models are not available for a range of perils in New Zealand. Insurers hence need to better understand weather-related catastrophes in New Zealand and the impact of climate change in this island nation exposed to strong marine influences and weather events of both tropical and temperate origin. This comprehensive review seeks to integrate and interpret the findings from a wide range of scientific literature into a cohesive summary useful for insurers evaluating climate risk in New Zealand. This review summarises the climate risk facing New Zealand, focussing on extreme events including heavy rainfall, floods, coastal hazards driven by weather systems on a range of spatiotemporal scales: atmospheric rivers, ex- and extra-tropical cyclones and severe convective storms, as well as wildfire weather. Potential changes to natural climate variability are also considered. The review shows that extreme rainfall over a range of durations, but particularly shorter durations, is projected to increase, and riverine and coastal flooding will also increase, although potential impacts are less well understood. Extreme weather systems such as ex-tropical and extra-tropical cyclones may be supported by warmer sea surface temperatures and the poleward shift in subtropical weather systems, although quantitative studies on their changing frequency and severity are not yet available. Key knowledge gaps in understanding sources of extreme rainfall, ex-tropical cyclones and other low-pressure systems and severe convective storms are identified. Further, focus areas for climate-related risk reduction that insurers could seek to promote to help protect the New Zealand community are discussed.
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015004
Determining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to climate change. We focus on excess heatwave- (defined by climatological definitions) related mortality in the state of Victoria that occurred during the 2009 southeast Australian heatwave. An epidemiological model derived from well-established methods defining the relationship between observed heatwave temperatures (95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles) and mortality is applied to heatwaves in simulations that either include or omit anthropogenic climate forcing from eight climate models. Across all models, the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event. We make clear that, in line with previous Australian-based studies, the focus on mortality relative to the top 5% of temperatures logically infers a smaller mortality signal relative to the top 50% of temperatures, as would be defined by a more general temperature-related epidemiological model. As research, planning and policy interest in the role of climate change behind the burden health—and other adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes—continues to grow, it is vital that interdisciplinary collaborations are nurtured, so that the resulting science is of high-quality rigour, and policy relevance.
Ryan Guild et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042006
As the planet undergoes unprecedented climate changes, coastal ecosystems stand at the frontline of ocean-land interactions and environmental changes. This overview explores the various climate-related challenges transforming coastal ecosystems and their responses to these pressures. Key climate-related stressors—including warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, changes to freshwater availability, and shifts in circulation and disturbance patterns—pose significant threats to both the structure and function of these ecosystems. These stressors impact every level of biological organization, with modern responses manifesting as ecosystem degradation and shifts toward simpler, less biodiverse states—trends likely to intensify with ongoing emissions. Compounded by local human disturbances, these stressors risk overwhelming the adaptive capacity of coastal ecosystems, restructuring coastal food webs, and compromising the essential ecosystem services that currently underpin productivity, storm protection, and water quality in coastal zones. Future trajectories of change in coastal ecosystems will largely depend on the extent of future greenhouse gas emissions and human activities in and around coastal zones. However, critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the interactions among stressors and the nature of ecological tipping points. Addressing these gaps through further research will be necessary to improve projections of future impacts and support the conservation and resilience of these valuable ecosystems.
Zia J Lyle et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015007
Drinking water utilities are exposed to a range of climate change hazards that can affect their ability to deliver safe drinking water. We use climate change mid-century projections to assess seven hazards for 42 786 utility systems (serving 283 million people) across the contiguous United States and develop a combined climate hazard index that allows for risk comparisons. All utilities are exposed to climate hazards, and around half, serving 178 million people (53% of current population), could experience large changes in one or more climate hazards that could affect an aspect of system reliability, including water resources, infrastructure, or operations. While utilities located in Western regions and coastal areas have higher climate hazard index values, there are utilities serving different population sizes in all geographic regions with elevated climate risk. Few utilities have developed climate adaptation plans and many may have existing vulnerabilities. This index provides multiple stakeholders, including utilities, regulators, and investors, with usable and accessible climate information.
Albert Nkwasa et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 013001
Since its emergence in the 1990s, the science of attributing observed phenomena to human-induced and natural climate drivers has made remarkable progress. To ensure the relevance and uptake of climate impact attribution studies, scientists must effectively engage with stakeholders. This engagement allows stakeholders to pose key questions, which scientists can then substantiate with evidence evaluating the existence of causal links. Although significant advancements have been made in climate impact attribution science, much work remains to understand the varied requirements of different stakeholders for impact attribution findings. This perspective explores the usefulness of stakeholder engagement in climate impact attribution, the challenges it presents, and how it can be made more relevant for addressing societal questions. It advocates for prioritizing stakeholder involvement to achieve greater transparency, legitimacy, and practical application of findings. Such involvement can enhance the societal impact of attribution studies and support informed decision-making in the face of climate change.
Thales Chile Baldoni et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015003
The South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone (SASA) is a key component of large-scale atmospheric circulation and is responsible for driving the climate in eastern Brazil and western Africa. Climate projections under warming scenarios suggest a strengthening, as well as a westward and southward expansion of this system. However, little is known about how the combination of global warming and climate intervention affects this system. To address this, SASA was identified from 2015 to 2099 in a set of projections with and without stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Projections were obtained from different initiatives: the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Intervention on the Earth System with SAI using Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) global climate model, the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) using CESM1, and the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP/G6sulfur) using Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. As each project has its own specific model, scenario, SAI location, etc, no intercomparison was carried out among them. Instead, there is an indication of what occurs in each project when comparing the near (2040–2059) and the far future (2080–2099) projections under SAI and no-SAI scenarios. SASA under no-SAI scenarios, compared to the reference period (2015–2024), follows the pattern described in the literature, i.e. a tendency to be stronger and wider. However, these features are more evident in the GLENS project. This same project suggests that SAI scenarios contribute to reducing the impact of global warming on the SASA climatology, as SASA in the future acquires characteristics similar to those of the reference period. One of the possibilities for it is that GLENS has the largest SAI forcing, given that the goal was to cancel out the strong greenhouse gas-induced warming in Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5.
Adriana Bailey et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 012002
Describing the processes that regulate the flows and exchanges of water within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere and Earth's surface is critical for understanding environmental change and predicting Earth's future accurately. The heavy-to-light hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water provide a useful lens through which to evaluate these processes due to their innate sensitivity to evaporation, condensation, and mixing. In this review, we examine how isotopic information advances our understanding about the origin and transport history of moisture in the atmosphere and about convective processes—including cloud mixing and detrainment, precipitation formation, and rain evaporation. Moreover, we discuss how isotopic data can be used to benchmark numerical simulations across a range of scales and improve predictive skill through data assimilation techniques. This synthesis of work illustrates that, when paired with air mass thermodynamic properties that are commonly measured and modeled (such as specific humidity and temperature), water's isotope ratios help shed light on moist processes that help set the climate state.
Zia J Lyle et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015007
Drinking water utilities are exposed to a range of climate change hazards that can affect their ability to deliver safe drinking water. We use climate change mid-century projections to assess seven hazards for 42 786 utility systems (serving 283 million people) across the contiguous United States and develop a combined climate hazard index that allows for risk comparisons. All utilities are exposed to climate hazards, and around half, serving 178 million people (53% of current population), could experience large changes in one or more climate hazards that could affect an aspect of system reliability, including water resources, infrastructure, or operations. While utilities located in Western regions and coastal areas have higher climate hazard index values, there are utilities serving different population sizes in all geographic regions with elevated climate risk. Few utilities have developed climate adaptation plans and many may have existing vulnerabilities. This index provides multiple stakeholders, including utilities, regulators, and investors, with usable and accessible climate information.
Raavi Aggarwal 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015006
Climate policies such as carbon taxes for emissions reduction could be detrimental to social welfare in developing countries. High energy prices could induce substitution towards traditional solid fuels such as fuelwood for cooking. Given fuelwood is primarily collected by women in low- and middle-income countries, climate policies may particularly affect women's welfare. This article reviews the empirical evidence on climate policies, energy use and women's well-being. Further, I develop a theoretical framework to characterise the potential effects of climate policy and complementary social policies on women's welfare. The theoretical results show provision of clean cooking technologies and improved biomass cook-stoves, when complementary to fuel taxes, could improve women's welfare and confer health and climate benefits in developing countries. The predictions of the theoretical framework are validated in the empirical literature.
Francis Nkrumah et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015005
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), a proposed climate intervention, aims to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface by increasing the reflectivity of the atmosphere, thereby offsetting the warming effect of greenhouse gases. During the Harmattan season (December–February) in West Africa (WA), a natural meteorological phenomenon injects dust and sand particles into the atmosphere, leading to a cooling effect. In this study, we investigate the influence of SAI on West African surface temperature, dust, and other meteorological variables using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 scenario and the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Intervention on the Earth system with SAI (ARISE-SAI) dataset. Our findings indicate that SAI intervention significantly impacts the projected surface temperatures, specific humidity, and wind speed changes during the Harmattan season. Compared to a future without SAI, the intervention shows a significant net cooling effect over most parts of WA during the mid-future period (2050–2069). Also, SAI intervention significantly decreases moisture content over southern and northern WA in the near-future (2035–2054), mainly due to the net cooling effects over WA, when compared to a future without SAI. This feature is enhanced in the mid-future period. The cooling effects of SAI are likely to reduce the air's capacity to hold moisture, leading to lower specific humidity levels relative to a future without SAI. It could also have negative implications, such as increased aridity compared to a future without SAI in the northern and central regions of WA. These findings also highlight the potential for SAI to improve air quality in certain areas but also underscore the need for careful consideration of implementation strategies and possible trade-offs. The changes from SAI observed are specific to the ARISE simulation and may differ from other SAI simulations.
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 015004
Determining the influence of climate change behind human mortality is of interest to many sectors. However, it is a fledgling field where studies have centered on northern hemisphere events. This study presents the first attribution assessment on the mortality burden of an Australian heatwave to climate change. We focus on excess heatwave- (defined by climatological definitions) related mortality in the state of Victoria that occurred during the 2009 southeast Australian heatwave. An epidemiological model derived from well-established methods defining the relationship between observed heatwave temperatures (95th, 97.5th and 99th percentiles) and mortality is applied to heatwaves in simulations that either include or omit anthropogenic climate forcing from eight climate models. Across all models, the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event. We make clear that, in line with previous Australian-based studies, the focus on mortality relative to the top 5% of temperatures logically infers a smaller mortality signal relative to the top 50% of temperatures, as would be defined by a more general temperature-related epidemiological model. As research, planning and policy interest in the role of climate change behind the burden health—and other adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes—continues to grow, it is vital that interdisciplinary collaborations are nurtured, so that the resulting science is of high-quality rigour, and policy relevance.
Adriana Bailey et al 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 012002
Describing the processes that regulate the flows and exchanges of water within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere and Earth's surface is critical for understanding environmental change and predicting Earth's future accurately. The heavy-to-light hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water provide a useful lens through which to evaluate these processes due to their innate sensitivity to evaporation, condensation, and mixing. In this review, we examine how isotopic information advances our understanding about the origin and transport history of moisture in the atmosphere and about convective processes—including cloud mixing and detrainment, precipitation formation, and rain evaporation. Moreover, we discuss how isotopic data can be used to benchmark numerical simulations across a range of scales and improve predictive skill through data assimilation techniques. This synthesis of work illustrates that, when paired with air mass thermodynamic properties that are commonly measured and modeled (such as specific humidity and temperature), water's isotope ratios help shed light on moist processes that help set the climate state.
Joanna Aldridge and Rob Bell 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 012001
In 2023, New Zealand experienced two consecutive weather-related events that exceeded previous insured losses by more than a factor of ten: the Auckland Anniversary Day floods and ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Further, climate reporting for financial services becomes mandatory in this jurisdiction in 2024, yet established catastrophe models are not available for a range of perils in New Zealand. Insurers hence need to better understand weather-related catastrophes in New Zealand and the impact of climate change in this island nation exposed to strong marine influences and weather events of both tropical and temperate origin. This comprehensive review seeks to integrate and interpret the findings from a wide range of scientific literature into a cohesive summary useful for insurers evaluating climate risk in New Zealand. This review summarises the climate risk facing New Zealand, focussing on extreme events including heavy rainfall, floods, coastal hazards driven by weather systems on a range of spatiotemporal scales: atmospheric rivers, ex- and extra-tropical cyclones and severe convective storms, as well as wildfire weather. Potential changes to natural climate variability are also considered. The review shows that extreme rainfall over a range of durations, but particularly shorter durations, is projected to increase, and riverine and coastal flooding will also increase, although potential impacts are less well understood. Extreme weather systems such as ex-tropical and extra-tropical cyclones may be supported by warmer sea surface temperatures and the poleward shift in subtropical weather systems, although quantitative studies on their changing frequency and severity are not yet available. Key knowledge gaps in understanding sources of extreme rainfall, ex-tropical cyclones and other low-pressure systems and severe convective storms are identified. Further, focus areas for climate-related risk reduction that insurers could seek to promote to help protect the New Zealand community are discussed.
Ryan Guild et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042006
As the planet undergoes unprecedented climate changes, coastal ecosystems stand at the frontline of ocean-land interactions and environmental changes. This overview explores the various climate-related challenges transforming coastal ecosystems and their responses to these pressures. Key climate-related stressors—including warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, changes to freshwater availability, and shifts in circulation and disturbance patterns—pose significant threats to both the structure and function of these ecosystems. These stressors impact every level of biological organization, with modern responses manifesting as ecosystem degradation and shifts toward simpler, less biodiverse states—trends likely to intensify with ongoing emissions. Compounded by local human disturbances, these stressors risk overwhelming the adaptive capacity of coastal ecosystems, restructuring coastal food webs, and compromising the essential ecosystem services that currently underpin productivity, storm protection, and water quality in coastal zones. Future trajectories of change in coastal ecosystems will largely depend on the extent of future greenhouse gas emissions and human activities in and around coastal zones. However, critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the interactions among stressors and the nature of ecological tipping points. Addressing these gaps through further research will be necessary to improve projections of future impacts and support the conservation and resilience of these valuable ecosystems.
Sara Duerto-Valero et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042005
Women and men interact with the environment differently. Although data on the gender and environment nexus is only recently starting to become more widely available, existing evidence shows that, in many countries, women and men's livelihoods, roles at home, and decision-making actions are widely different, and thus so are their contributions to environmental conservation and degradation. Similarly, climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss affect women and men in different ways, but the limited availability of related data still prevents a full understanding of the multiplicity of ways in which these differences manifest. In recent years, numerous methodological advancements have taken place, which are enabling the production of gender and environment statistics to better understand these connections. From dedicated surveys to uses of non-conventional data sources, empirical evidence on this topic is increasingly available. Still, substantial efforts are needed to fill existing data gaps and gain a thorough understanding of the connections. This paper showcases available evidence on various aspects of the gender-environment nexus and highlights possible solutions to fill remaining data gaps.
Edward Hanna et al 2024 Environ. Res.: Climate 3 042004
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex's zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
Im et al
We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. 

Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH4 lifetime in the present day. The CH4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m-2 in the present day to 0.73 W m-2 in 2050. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.
Kraan et al
In many places around the world, flood defenses—structures such as dams, levees, and dikes—have allowed societies to grow and thrive near bodies of water. However, adapting to intensifying climate change may require an alternative or additional flood management strategy for living with water, motivated by both long-term flood risk reduction and other societal goals. Based on 43 interviews with climate adaptation experts in the Netherlands, we evaluate perspectives on living with water—or meebewegen in Dutch—including the degree to which living-with-water measures are expected to be implemented, their likely role as part of the Netherlands' future flood risk management, and enablers and barriers. We find widespread agreement that many living-with-water measures will be implemented at large to very large scale, but find the most disagreement about the subset of living-with-water measures focused on retreat. We develop a typology that organizes the diverse set of perspectives on the future role of living with water into four quadrants, based on whether experts expect flood risk management to depend more on engineering flood defenses or living-with-water strategies, and on whether living-with-water strategies are viewed as socio-politically favorable or unfavorable. We identify spatial constraints, political leadership, living-with-water narratives, and misaligned incentives as factors shaping the barriers to and opportunities for living with water. Our research shows that, despite wildly differing perspectives about flood adaptation through living-with-water measures, points of agreement exist about limits of current adaptation strategies and some need for living with water strategies. These could be harnessed to enhance living with water where this new paradigm of water management emerges.
Horing et al
California wildfires have been increasing in frequency and severity. However, there is a limited understanding to date about people's experiences with wildfire occurrences, how that experience shapes their perceptions of risk and how it affects their response in terms of actions that can reduce their household risk. In 2021, we fielded an online survey to 1,200 people living in California aimed at understanding experience, risk perceptions, and decision-making strategies related to wildfires. We find that 70% of all survey respondents participants experienced poor air quality and 39% experienced a power outage in their home. Other experiences elicited (such as experiencing a school closure, a home evacuation, or home damages) were reported by less than 1/5 of our respondents. A significant portion of our survey respondents has undertaken actions to reduce the risk from wildfire to their household by having air filters, smoke-protecting masks and using informational air quality tools, and investing in back up power. Despite low number of reported prior experiences and the low perception of likelihood for the need to evacuate, a relatively large percent of respondents has taken actions to prepare for evacuation with 41% of the respondents stating packed a "go bag", 32% securing a place to stay in case of evacuation, 35% reported having created a defensible space, and 18% have pursued retrofits to their house. Our regressions models suggest that while the perception of risk is associated with action, other factors, such as being a homeowner or deriving livelihood off their land are much more likely to drive people to act. The results from our study suggest that while experience may lead to action, other policy interventions, such as clear communication on risks and consequences for household in high-risk areas, may be warranted to drive further action.