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Paper The following article is Open access

Forecasting the Amount of the Lung Diseases by the Method of ARIMA-ARCH

Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd
, , Citation B K Mbau 2018 IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. 407 012155 DOI 10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012155

1757-899X/407/1/012155

Abstract

This paper aimed at forecasting the number of cases of Tuberculosis in XYZ hospital. The lungs are one of the vital organs in the human body. This research method using ARIMA-ARCH model. Test results into the influential heteroskedastisitas forecasting the number of cases of tuberculosis, where when the model initially has no effect ARCH but still continued into the ARIMAARCH value produces a MAPE of better evidenced by the model of ARIMA (0, 1, 3) the ARCH (1) have a better accuracy level, where has a value of MAPE 2.09 % whereas the model ARIMA (0, 1, 3) has a value of MAPE 2.31%.

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10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012155