A multimedia fate and chemical transport modeling system for pesticides: II. Model evaluation

Pesticides have adverse health effects and can be transported over long distances to contaminate sensitive ecosystems. To address problems caused by environmental pesticides we developed a multimedia multi-pollutant modeling system, and here we present an evaluation of the model by comparing modeled results against measurements. The modeled toxaphene air concentrations for two sites, in Louisiana (LA) and Michigan (MI), are in good agreement with measurements (average concentrations agree to within a factor of 2). Because the residue inventory showed no soil residues at these two sites, resulting in no emissions, the concentrations must be caused by transport; the good agreement between the modeled and measured concentrations suggests that the model simulates atmospheric transport accurately. Compared to the LA and MI sites, the measured air concentrations at two other sites having toxaphene soil residues leading to emissions, in Indiana and Arkansas, showed more pronounced seasonal variability (higher in warmer months); this pattern was also captured by the model. The model-predicted toxaphene concentration fraction on particles (0.5–5%) agrees well with measurement-based estimates (3% or 6%). There is also good agreement between modeled and measured dry (1:1) and wet (within a factor of less than 2) depositions in Lake Ontario. Additionally this study identified erroneous soil residue data around a site in Texas in a published US toxaphene residue inventory, which led to very low modeled air concentrations at this site. Except for the erroneous soil residue data around this site, the good agreement between the modeled and observed results implies that both the US and Mexican toxaphene soil residue inventories are reasonably good. This agreement also suggests that the modeling system is capable of simulating the important physical and chemical processes in the multimedia compartments.