Industrial and ecological safety analysis for modeling oil and petroleum products spills in the Arctic waters of the Kola Bay

The paper analyses the industrial safety of the coastal and water areas of the Kola Bay of the Barents Sea when modeling the spill of oil or petroleum products. It gives a brief description of the methods and stages of liquidation of oil spills in the water and coastal areas as well as the main causes of accidents. It presents the results of physical and mathematical calculations in theoretical modeling of oil and petroleum products spills, namely: fire risk analysis, calculation of the minimum amount of combustible substance with partial destruction of the tank, calculation of probable areas of hazard boundary during an accident at the pump station, results of calculating the probability of explosion at the pumping station, and individual, collective and social risks. The most likely scenario is an event with partial depressurization (the probability will be 3.9·10⁻⁵ 1/year): partial depressurization of the tank with liquid oil or petroleum products → oil slick formation → oil slick fire → personnel and equipment present in the hazardous area → exposure of people to thermal radiation. It was found that a minimum of 1182 kg of spilled crude oil is required for uncontrolled combustion to occur with an intensity of thermal radiation of not more than 4.2 kW/m² m. The time to reach the maximum volumetric average temperature (894 K) in an accident at the pumping station is 136.8 minutes. In these calculations, the individual risk R_ind = 3.31·10⁻⁵ 1/year exceeds the regulatory standard, which shows an urgent need to reduce this risk. The collective risk is: Rcol total = 1.98·10⁻⁴ persons/year. Regarding the social risk, we can conclude that the minimum number of injured people will be three in case of an accident at the pump station or during the spill of oil or petroleum products into the Kola Bay, taking into account the fire development. The presented theoretical accident models will reduce the risk of major accidents involving petrochemical pollution of environmental objects, thereby preventing environmental damage, and the problem of the management of large oil spills at various facilities and technological systems of industrial enterprises will be solved.