Abstract
Aiming at the problem of the increasing voltage over limit risk by a large number of distributed PV access network, firstly by analyzing the volatility and time-series property of the PV output, a probability model of PV output based on the clearance model is established in this paper. Then the risk assessment index of system voltage exceeding the limit based on the probability and severity of node voltage at each time interval is established. Based on this, using the hybrid approximation to solve the ultimate capacity of distributed PV access network is proposed. Finally, a typical IEEE 33-node power distribution system is taken as an example to analyze the risk of system voltage under different load characteristics, load levels and line types. From these three aspects, the ultimate capacity of distributed PV access network is evaluated.
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