Technology foresight: Capturing the benefits from nuclear science technology and innovation in Malaysian Nuclear Agency

Nuclear technology has started in Malaysia since the establishment of the Malaysian Nuclear Agency (Nuclear Malaysia) in 1972. The agency was established to promote the peaceful application of nuclear science and technology for national development. Nuclear science and technology for peaceful purposes have effectively advanced in various sectors, including industry, healthcare, food and agriculture, natural resources, energy, and nuclear safety and security through research, development, commercialization and innovation (RDCI). Scientific advancements through RDI activities will have a substantial impact on the advancement of nuclear technology. New demands placed on the public R&D infrastructure are also influencing government research priorities. Many governments believe that establishing a definite longer-term science and technology policy is essential in a time of escalating economic competitiveness. Therefore, to focus resources and achieve the greatest economic and social benefits, the most promising research fields and new technologies should be determined. Technology foresight can be used as a method to evaluate the revolutionary influence of new emerging technologies on the economy and society over the coming years, given the sustainability of RDI in nuclear technology in Malaysian Nuclear Agency. Identifying the fields of strategic research and emerging technologies with the involvement of scientists, industrialists, government officials, and others will provide the greatest economic and social advantages is the goal of technology foresight. This study proposes a conceptual model framework of the technological foresight exercise and implementation stages to be implemented in Malaysian Nuclear Agency. Through a foresight exercise, the Malaysian Nuclear Agency could close the gap between the adoption and use of nuclear technology in social and economic sectors by working with relevant industries, communities, and government agencies to match products, technologies, and services.


Introduction
The term of technology foresight derives from the international foresight community's shared emphasis on science and technology [1].Several factors have contributed to the fast spread of technological foresight since the 1990s.Foresight is the process of trying to predict the long-term future of science, technology, the economy, the environment, and society.The goal is to find the areas of strategic research and new emerging technologies that are most likely to help the economy and society [2][3][4].The goal of foresight is to methodically investigate potential futures.Therefore, having foresight entails adopting a proactive, aware perspective on the future and realising that decisions taken today may have a significant impact on or even create the future.The foresight initiative's impetus was driven by three main factors, which are rising governmental spending pressure, altered knowledge production processes, and increased industrial and economic competition [1].1308 (2024) 012008 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1308/1/012008 2 Foresight is an umbrella term for innovative ways to plan strategies, make policies, and come up with solutions that do not predict or forecast the future but instead work with different possible futures [5].Foresight has been described as a systematic, collaborative, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium-to long-term vision-building process that aims to help people make decisions now and work together.Foresight gives decision-makers and policy planners new ways to think about, talk about, and put into action strategic plans that are in line with the way the future is shaping up.Foresight tries to find a balance between the unsettling uncertainty and unpredictability of the future and the need for data, information, and intelligence to shape this future, without using wishful thinking, prophecies, predictions, or forecasts.Foresight helps people develop important skills like cross-impact analysis and synthesis, systems thinking, wind tunnelling and planning for deep and long-term uncertainty [5][6][7][8][9].It is based on several skills, such as being aware of possible, probable, and preferred futures, scanning the horizon proactively, being able to sort, sift through, and combine open, real-time, and emerging data, and making tight feedback loops.It involves looking at possible future scenarios and paths, figuring out future risks and opportunities, and practising possible responses in a planned way.
Foresight exercises will help planning teams avoid mistakes that could cost a lot of money and get ready for different possible futures [3,6,7,10].Foresight is widely known as a tool for making decisions [6,7].This means that many public and private organisations can set goals and make plans that work well even when things are uncertain.Foresight exercise will objectively identify future opportunities, barriers, and risks, as well as strategically place critical thinking into long-term development.Technology foresight will also encourage participation from many different groups, which will help shape the future through policy changes.
This paper discusses the key features and characteristics of technology foresight.This led to the development of a conceptual model framework for technology foresight, which is addressed in this paper.The paper discusses the foresight initiatives in technology and innovation in Malaysia, including the proposed foresight initiatives in the Malaysian Nuclear Agency and the ten-step of technology foresight methodology.The paper also discusses the role of foresight in leveraging technology and innovation revolution that is essential for the economic and social development of the country.The paper concludes with a few key observations about technology foresight and emphasises capturing the benefits of nuclear science technology and innovation using technology foresight.

Key features and characteristics of technology foresight
Methodologies for foresight might be qualitative or quantitative, and they can be focused on the near or long term.The majority of foresight approaches integrate qualitative and quantitative data, thus the actual situation is not that straightforward.The periods that foresight methodologies cover and qualitative vs quantitative natures also differ.Technology foresight exercises can be carried out in a variety of ways.Table 1 shows how a range of foresight exercises can be classified into distinct categories of foresight.
Classification of foresight might be based on the nature of the organisation involved.All organisations that support or do research should, ideally, perform foresight.Furthermore, foresight results should be neither too general nor too specific for the organisation.Foresight exercises can be characterised according to their specificity and breadth of coverage.A holistic foresight level is concerned with the complete spectrum of science and technology, whereas a macro-level foresight is typically utilised for a multi-disciplinary agency.A meso-level foresight concerning a large area or product range; and a micro-level foresight concerning a research specialism or product.To identify the convergence or fusion of formerly independent fields and the formation of new interdisciplinary areas, holistic foresight is required.However, each country must have a broad range of foresight at the macro, meso, and micro levels, as well as procedures to assure effective integration.The advantage of having a national foresight system with exercises at one level benefits from those at higher and lower levels.The goal of technology foresight is to identify areas of research and technology that are likely to generate future socioeconomic advantages.Not only economic benefits, but also social, technology, environment, politics, and values benefits are taken into consideration while choosing prospective benefits areas.These parameters must be balanced in a way that is appropriate for the larger context in which foresight is undertaken.It is also helpful to group foresight according to its intermediary roles, which include creating priorities, generating consensus, anticipatory intelligence, advocacy, communication, and education.While priority-setting initiatives are frequently the first goal of foresight exercises, many overlook that objective.Therefore, the functions must be clearly stated at the outset to reduce the risk of an interest group takeover the exercise for their objectives.Another important lesson is that placing too much emphasis on reaching a consensus can have unintended consequences such as resource misallocation, the adoption of risk-reduction tactics, and protracted decision-making.
Technology foresight can be characterised according to its research orientation and internal disciplinary structure, whether it focuses on a mature or emerging technology.Different foresight approaches may be required for each kind.The relative importance of the various criteria will also differ.The ability to successfully balance the inherent conflict between technology-push and demandpull forces is essential for foresight.The outcomes are typically conservative and short-term if socioeconomic demands are allowed to dominate.Two further underlying conflicts in foresight include the balance between top-down and bottom-up approaches, as well as the amount to which responsibility is assigned to an interested party or a more impartial third party.Again, balance is required for both if foresight is to be successful.Over-reliance on a top-down strategy or an independent organisation can lead to a lack of involvement and commitment from the scientific and industrial communities.
In foresight, the time horizon must be neither too long nor too short.It must be sufficiently longterm to assess developing trends and provide policymakers enough time to affect events.A foresight exercise must also not be so far into the future that researchers and others are unable to see the consequences of present-day decisions.Idealistically, the foresight time horizon should be approximately two to three times that of regular planning.Approaches to foresight can be divided into two categories based on the balance of informal and formal, as well as qualitative and quantitative methodologies.The approach chosen must be appropriate to the foresight exercise's goals and the surrounding situations.One finding here is a recent shift away from predictive and extrapolative approaches and toward the development of early-warning systems to discover new technological opportunities or demands as soon as possible.

Foresight initiatives in science, technology and innovation in Malaysia
Recently, the government and industries have started to use foresight exercises to change their approach or direction in the future by using science, technology, and innovation (STI) to solve social and economic problems [11].The combination of foresight exercises and STI would increase productivity, job creation, the ability to innovate, the pool of highly skilled workers, and, in the end, economic prosperity and the well-being of society.It would also turn the current economy, which is based on production, into a knowledge-intensive economy and push the usual limits of how things can be done.Foresight, which looks at new horizons, key drivers, and trends, as well as STI, has been recognised as an important tool for making policies and strategies related to our industrial strategies.Foresight exercises can be used as a key high-level tool for planning and strategizing so that we can stay competitive, adaptable, and quick to respond to big changes and shocks [12].
Foresight helps bring about new ideas of innovation.Foresight helps us figure out how ready we are for the future and where we can find opportunities that will lead to the solutions we need for the future.MOSTI has included STI foresight as an important strategy in the National Policy on Science, Technology, and Innovation (NPSTI) 2021-2030 [13].This is because MOSTI knows how important foresight is, especially when it comes to building up capacity and using STI foresight.It is done to make sure that local STI foresight expertise and capabilities are expanded and strengthened.These include highlighting how STI foresight can be used to develop policies that address important issues like industrial competitiveness, food security, climate change, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) realisation, and disaster risks [14].
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) are prioritised in Malaysian policies like the 12 th Malaysia Plan, Shared Prosperity Vision 2030, NPSTI 2021-2030, and National Policy on Industry 4.0.A supportive ecosystem must be established to support the development and adoption of products and technologies that can advance the SDGs.Here, foresight is crucial in identifying the problems or gaps that prevent governments, businesses, and societies from adopting sustainable practices, as well as in creating scenarios and strategies that could be used to prevent or address those problems and gaps.Whereas traditional planning sought to prevent failure, foresight fosters agility, innovation, strategic evaluation, and the proactive shaping of the future, including supporting and creating a sustainable future for the nation.Foresight resulted in informed policy and decision-making, as well as providing confidence to the private sector and guiding them to the right investment decisions based on environmental, social, and governance factors, adopting an agile regulatory approach and stimulating RDCI activities.
The 10-10 Malaysian Science, Technology, Innovation and Economic (MySTIE) Framework combines 10 important socioeconomic factors with 10 cutting-edge scientific and technological trends that are in line with Malaysia's needs and advantages.The Emerging Science, Engineering and Technology (ESET) Study conducted by the Academy of Sciences Malaysia (ASM) was the basis for the framework, which was developed to provide S&T Foresight as part of the ASM's flagship initiative, Envisioning Malaysia 2050 [3].A method of foresight known as scenario planning was used to identify, characterise, and anticipate possible scenarios in Malaysia's future.By considering various alternatives for our future in 2050, policy and decision-makers, industries, communities, and STI influencers can put in place long-term planning tools for anticipating and preparing for plausible futures.The ESET study yielded 284 products, services, technologies, potential applications, and outcomes pertinent to Malaysia in 2050, 95 emerging technologies, and 21 emerging technologies with significant impact.Furthermore, by working collaboratively with the respective industries, communities, and government entities, MOSTI could bridge the gap between technology adoption and application in socio-economic sectors.Collaboration between government and industry is critical for matching products, technologies, and services from our RDCI initiatives to industrial issues, climate change, pollution, and food security.

Foresight initiatives in Malaysian Nuclear Agency
As a research institution in nuclear science and technology in Malaysia, the Malaysian Nuclear Agency (Nuklear Malaysia) plays an important role in promoting, developing and highlighting the peaceful use of nuclear technology in various fields including industry, food and agriculture, water and environment, natural resources and energy to support the sustainability of national development.Nuclear Malaysia is committed to a more competitive, productive and effective organization that performs its functions, which is firmly developed based on the foundations of nuclear science and technology.In addition, Nuclear Malaysia is also committed to empowering its core activities to align with national aspirations and international agendas including the 12 th Malaysia Plan, Shared Prosperity Vision 2030, NPSTI 2021-2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).Currently, Nuklear Malaysia is also developing the National Nuclear Technology Policy (DTNN) to plan the direction of nuclear science and technology development at the national level from 2021 to 2030.One of the initiatives proposed by stakeholders is the importance of technological foresight planning to ensure the development of the field of nuclear science and technology in Malaysia will not be left behind in the future.Activities are related to technological foresight also outlined in the Wawasan Nuklear Malaysia 2021-2030 document [15].
The combination of nuclear technology with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, internet-of-things, 4D printing, robotics, drones and technology will support the country's priorities in industry, medicine and health care, food and agriculture, natural resources, water and the environment in the future.In turn, this will optimize the value and impact that nuclear science and technology can offer for the country's socioeconomic development.For this reason, technological foresight is a very important element to ensure the development of new nuclear science and technology in Malaysia, especially Nuclear Malaysia so that it does not lag behind other foreign countries.Technology foresight methodology will also give focus and priority to the planning and development of new technologies related to nuclear science and technology to realize technology readiness in this country.In addition, through this technology foresight initiative, Nuklear Malaysia was able to identify the constraints it faced including issues of lack of appropriate regulatory and policy standards, human and financial resources, and research infrastructure.Accordingly, technological foresight is essential to respond to the technological challenges raised by global competition.Therefore, the proposed phases for implementing nuclear technology foresight in the Malaysian Nuclear Agency are shown in Figure 1.

Ten-step of technology foresight methodology
Future-oriented thinking mobilises change by identifying multiple possible futures to accelerate current development.Long-term transformation is embedded in future thinking, as is a clear, practical approach to cultivating a change-receptive culture.From the standpoint of development, foresight offers a variety of tools for investigating multiple futures and responding to the future's complexity with a set of rational long-term solutions [16].The ten-step technology foresight technique depicted in Table 2 will be used by the Malaysian Nuclear Agency in developing technology foresight exercises.The foresight exercise will be implemented using the 10-step scenario planning methodology by MyForesight, MIGHT base on the Scenario Planning Handbook [17].The stages of technology foresight are diagnosis, prognosis, and prescription.
The first stage is the diagnosis.The diagnosis process entails assessing current conditions and trends, problems, obstacles, and factors that will either spur or hinder an organization's future transformations.Using the resources, scenarios, and approaches at our disposal, we will decide how to examine the future in the most effective way possible.There are three steps in the diagnostic process.Step 1 focuses on the project's scope, which will evolve organically with the success of the projects and produce impactful results to support future growth.In this stage, we will evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, and scope of our resources as the first step in developing our future.We will take control of our future through this process.
Step 2 is to identify current challenges and trends in our immediate surroundings.The future is a small-scale version of our most extravagant desires.The future, on the other hand, provides a closer look at the environment in 10 to 20 years.Step 3 entails determining the primary change drivers.During this phase, any changes will be closely monitored, and emerging trends with the potential to replace current ones will be sought after.The prognosis process is the second stage, which includes steps 4, 5, 6, and 7.
Step 4 will highlight the main sources of uncertainty as well as several proactive measures.Significant changes that are likely to happen in the future and require prompt action are indicated by a set of signposts.Step 5 will offer a range of conceivable future scenarios that will give us previously unattainable insight into potential future opportunities.We will examine the threats and opportunities presented by these plausible scenarios.We can make it easier for people to adapt and succeed in various future scenarios by developing a specific set of strategic options that match our commitment to changing the future's scenarios.Step 6 will generate a plausible storyline that is supported by the drivers anticipated during the scenario-planning process.How the world works in the future will depend on what's happening now.The plausible scenarios are verified in Step 7, giving us well-balanced knowledge about possible futures.Each scenario's relevance to all the critical variables present will be critically assessed.By comprehending the different scenarios that the organisation may encounter, we consider our future scenario during this phase.The main themes, drivers, and actors of the scenarios are developed, and then their plausibility and logic are examined.
Steps 8, 9, and 10 make up the third stage, which is the prescription process.In the prescription phase, the organisation must determine how to translate the scenarios into strategies.Additionally, this will involve the identification of wildcards as well as future navigation and launch into the desired future.The implications are assessed in step 8 along with several strategic options for potential responses to uncertainty.To protect the future, it is important to act swiftly and rigorously in the face of shifting trends and growth drivers.Step 9 will continue to be relevant, identifying signposts and wildcards to anticipate the next major change.Tracking the progression of constantly shifting variables can be made much easier by identifying early warning signs.At this point, it is critical to identify the key indicators that will shape the future.Step 10 involves monitoring and reviewing the scenarios through a cyclical review programme to adjust the parallels with current trends.By taking this action, we will help ourselves stay focused on the future and support a prudent strategy for coordinating our future goals.

The role of foresight in leveraging technology and innovation revolution
Nowadays, a lot of governments believe that a clear and comprehensive technology strategy is necessary for social and economic advancement [18].Therefore, foresight is one of the useful tools for connecting science and technology to economic and social concerns, and thus for assisting in making the appropriate decisions.The usage of foresight methodology has recently increased significantly.Government must take the lead in organising foresight throughout the full range of technology, even while the industry may oversee foresight at the meso-or micro-level [1].To establish the context for the lower levels, a holistic foresight approach is necessary.Additionally, it provides the sole method for locating the intersection of technological streams that were previously independent.If done correctly, foresight can yield significant process benefits.It improves communication, teamwork, and shared commitment across business, academia, and government.If new technologies are to be utilised to their full potential, such links are crucial.
Initial attempts at foresight are seldom successful.A lengthy learning process is required, with considerable trial and error.There are two explanations for this.First, foresight requires weighing a huge number of frequently conflicting factors.Secondly, the absence of a coherent conceptual understanding of foresight.Looking for single-factor explanations for success and failure in foresight is futile.Successful foresight is dependent on getting most, if not all, of the factors right.This suggests a parallel with innovation theory [19].Many lessons concerning foresight success have parallels with elements recognised in the literature as influencing success and failure in industrial innovation.Therefore, processes of innovation and foresight must be explored.In the case of foresight, these processes, such as forecast priorities, are often as significant as the outcome.
Benefits from innovation and foresight procedures must involve and gain the commitment of all those who are likely to be influenced by having a specific client with well-defined needs that are considered at an early stage [7].Given the balance between technology-push and demand-pull viewpoints, a mix of top-down and bottom-up techniques is most likely to be successful.Foresight should not be undertaken in isolation from existing processes for planning, allocating resources, and managing research, just as R&D before industrial innovation should not be conducted in isolation from other corporate tasks [20].Good communication is essential for innovation and foresight, both internally among all those directly involved and externally with everyone who might be impacted by the outcomes.Successful innovators keep an eye on shifting market demands and build on current advantages [6].Analysing current strengths together with monitoring economic and social demands is another factor in a successful foresight exercise.In addition, enthusiastic persuasive people frequently play a significant role in both innovation and foresight [21].
A varied range of skills is required for the successful management of both innovation and foresight processes.A wide scientific and technical knowledge, as well as an awareness of the processes of technological development and the innovation process, are required skills for foresight [22].Other requirements include knowledge of the sector and the needs of possible research customers, organisational and interpersonal management abilities, survey design, data-handling and analytic procedures, and a strong experience in forecasting and science-policy studies.To serve as a product champion, a manager of the innovation or foresight process, or someone else must be sufficiently senior.This will guarantee a high level of dedication to the procedure and its outcomes while allowing individuals associated with the process enough independence from conventional wisdom and immediate issues.The dissemination of the results from both processes must also be taken into consideration and means for disseminating the results to users should be included from the start.Industrial innovation is introduced through a series of iterative stages of improvement [1].The foresight process must also be monitored, improved, and its outcomes must be validated using proper procedures.

Conclusions
The acceptance of foresight is constrained by organisational philosophy and the political situation.Foresight is difficult to achieve when powerful interest groups coexist and policy is set on an adversarial basis.The same holds for countries whose industrial policies prioritise the free market above long-term planning for the nation's R&D infrastructure.The independence of the scientific community is another aspect that varies by country and could limit the potential foresight.All of this is not to imply that foresight is wholly culturally specific, but rather that while creating a foresight exercise, one should consider institutional or political obstacles and opportunities.This analogy with innovation, in addition to assisting in the identification of characteristics structuring success in foresight, is a source of optimism.Given the limited success of previous attempts at foresight, some may conclude that foresight is so difficult that it is not worth pursuing at all.The example of the innovation process, which has previously perplexed many policy experts, provides hope for foresight.Foresight may be enhanced and made more effective with effort and a willingness to understand that setbacks are part of the learning process.Foresight may be enhanced and made more effective with effort and a willingness to understand that setbacks are part of the learning process.Foresight provides a method to help capture those prospective benefits and thereby shape the future by identifying the technologies likely to produce the most socioeconomic benefit.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Proposed implementation phases on nuclear technology foresight.

Table 1 .
Key features and characteristics of technology foresight.