Abstract
The road safety statistics have shown a remarkable increase in number of injuries during the festive seasons in Malaysia. To anticipate the burden of the injuries, the police has carried out an advanced enforcement operations called "Ops Sikap" since 2001. Evaluations on the effectiveness of the operations are, however, found inconclusive. This study employed ARIMA and intervention model to further evaluate the effect of the Ops Sikap. The effect of an intervention on the number of accidents is measured using the pulse function. ARIMA model is used to forecast the series without such intervention and become the basis for the ARIMA(p,d,q) process of the intervention model. Forecasted accidents from the intervention model are then compared with the ARIMA one to attain how far the effect. The results show that the operations have reduced the number of accidents in many years. Out of twenty five Ops Sikap carried out, fourteen times (56%) have successfully brought the accidents down. The operations have provided the reduction of the monthly accidents up to 0.7% as compared with the accidents if there were no such operations taken.
Export citation and abstract BibTeX RIS
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.