Simulation model for the North Sea Route transit time estimation

Today the Northern Sea Route attracts due attention of the international transport society. The Russian government has set a task to increase the cargo volumes transported via this way. There is an assumption that a substantial share of this amount would be the transit of the containerized cargo in both directions, Eastbound and Westbound. In these circumstances – since we speak about liner shipping and the maritime component of international intermodal transportation, there is a demand for scientifically proved methods of planning and prognoses of ice-breaker escort operations of transit caravans of merchant ships, both for selected legs and the whole route. This paper deals with the simulation model of the caravan of ships transiting the route leg by leg. The techniques proposed by this investigation enables to assess the random value – the time needed to pass along the Northern Sea Route. Simultaneously, the offered mechanisms permit to form the graphics of the movements along the parts of the route, which helps to make reliable forecasts for estimated passage times, estimated times for consolidation and dispersion of caravans, waiting times in the relay system of the movement along NSR. Eventually, these forecasts would form a base for the intermodal transportation chain.