Evaluating perspectives of economy “ decarbonation ” – environmental aspect

The present paper deals with evaluation of economy “decarbonation” perspectives in post-Soviet states. The dynamics of this process over the period of 1990–2014 has been studied and the countries have been ranked respectively. Decoupling of GDP growth and CO2 emissions has been identified. The authors suggest a classification of tools to manage the process. Introduction Despite natural resource depletion, growing society’s needs, and environmental challenges, current economic systems are based on intensive use of conventional energy sources. This necessitates a reexamination of prevailing management approaches and implementation of new management modes. The promising solution is “decarbonation” of national economies, which implies implementation and development of green economy policies by the end of the 21 st century. By 2050, minimum 50% to 70% of electricity will be supplied from renewable energy sources [1]. The decreased technogenic load upon the environment makes decarbonation a promising trend in economic development, which implies intensive development of civil society based on alternative economic approaches. 1. Materials and Methods The previous research has indicated that the dynamics of greenhouse gas emission depends on the following factors: 1) GDP growth; 2) changes in production patterns, opening up new industries; 3) dynamics of prices for energy sources; 4) implementation of enhanced technologies and innovations; 5) introduction of measures directly or indirectly reducing the amount of emissions. The 90s of the 20th century turned out to be a hard time for the post-Soviet countries. Breaking of the ties existing within the former economic complex, development of independent national policies, and integration into the global market caused GDP decrease by 18–72%. Country ranking by GDP (PPP) per capita growth (absolute) over the period from 1990 to 2014 is shown in table 1. PGON2016 IOP Publishing IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 43 (2016) 012042 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/43/1/012042 Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1 Table 1. Dynamics in country ranking by GDP (PPP) per capita growth (absolute) over the period from 1990 to 2014 (dollars, sorted in ascending order)* Country 199


Introduction
Despite natural resource depletion, growing society's needs, and environmental challenges, current economic systems are based on intensive use of conventional energy sources.This necessitates a reexamination of prevailing management approaches and implementation of new management modes.The promising solution is "decarbonation" of national economies, which implies implementation and development of green economy policies by the end of the 21 st century.By 2050, minimum 50% to 70% of electricity will be supplied from renewable energy sources [1].The decreased technogenic load upon the environment makes decarbonation a promising trend in economic development, which implies intensive development of civil society based on alternative economic approaches.

Materials and Methods
The previous research has indicated that the dynamics of greenhouse gas emission depends on the following factors: 1) GDP growth; 2) changes in production patterns, opening up new industries; 3) dynamics of prices for energy sources; 4) implementation of enhanced technologies and innovations; 5) introduction of measures directly or indirectly reducing the amount of emissions.
The 90s of the 20th century turned out to be a hard time for the post-Soviet countries.Breaking of the ties existing within the former economic complex, development of independent national policies, and integration into the global market caused GDP decrease by 18-72%.Country ranking by GDP (PPP) per capita growth (absolute) over the period from 1990 to 2014 is shown in table 1.The countries which have improved their rating in terms of GDP based on PPP over 25 years are as follows: Kazakhstan (moved from 5th place in 1990 to 4th place in 2014), Lithuania (moved from 3d to 1st), Estonia (remained at 2nd place), Russia (moved from 4th to 3d), Azerbaijan (moved from 10th to 7th), Belarus (from 8th to 6th).Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are at the bottom of the list: Kyrgyzstan remained at the same place, while Tajikistan and Moldova had lower rating in 2014 compare to 1990.
Table 2 presents data on carbon dioxide emissions per capita in post-Soviet countries, as well as country ranking in terms of the emissions.The countries which have significantly decreased their rating over the 25-year period are western post-Soviet states, except for Belarus and Georgia.Russia improved its ranking in 2014 compared to that at the beginning of the period.The dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in post-Soviet states is illustrated in figure 1.The same trend can be observed when the countries are ranked in terms of CO2 emissions per 1,000 dollars of GDP (see figure 2).Over the 25-year period, carbon dioxide emissions reduced in all post-Soviet states.The top countries are Baltic states (75% reduction) and also Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.It is noteworthy that some of these countries occupy top positions in ranking by ecological effectiveness as well: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are ranked 1st, 2nd, and 3d, respectively (Russia is ranked 5th).
One of the ways to decrease the amount of emissions is reducing dependence on conventional energy sources.The share of renewable energy is significant in Georgia (28.3%),Kyrgyzstan (39.4%), and Tajikistan (57.5%), while in Russia it makes up only 9%, and even less in Kazakhstan (1%).
Energy consumption within different economic sectors in Russia is shown in table 4 [2].According to the data, there is a decrease in fossil fuel energy consumption over the time period considered, moreover, it is possible to identify the economic sectors with enhanced manufacturing, which proves the potential for energy saving performance (see table 5).According to the World Bank and the Center for Energy efficiency forecasts, Russia is capable to reduce energy consumption by 45% if the measures for energy efficiency are implemented.By 2020, the annual saving may be up to 250-270 million tons of reference fuel [3].

Conclusion
It is possible to conclude that economy "decarbonation" is attributed to current economic conditions.The trend is essential not only for alternative production, but also for present-day manufacturing based on conventional energy sources and proved to have potential for energy saving performance.The tools of economy "decarbonation" may be grouped as follows: 1. economic tools, which change the structure of the national economy, modify its technological characteristics, and imply the following processes [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]  enhancement of current manufacturing practices and implementation of new ones that allows reducing carbon intensity;  development of alternative energy sources;  forest conservation and management to improve carbon sequestering; 2. institutional tools, which imply revision of current rules and regulations (development of national strategy of carbon intensity reduction, modification of national energy strategy, etc.) and implementation of low carbon fuel standards for national enterprises; this can only be done by accepting the problem, on the one hand, and encouraging economic entities, on the other hand; 3. management tools, which introduce new approaches to business management and enhance the systems of economic interaction, personnel training, and forming personnel reserve, allow implementing innovations at all production stages, from "making" product to placing it at the market, etc.

Table 1 .
Dynamics in country ranking by GDP (PPP) per capita growth (absolute) over the period from 1990 to 2014 (dollars, sorted in ascending order)*

Table 2 .
Dynamics in country ranking by carbon dioxide emissions per capita (absolute) over the period from 1990 to 2014 (sorted in ascending order)

Table 4 .
Fossil fuel energy consumption within different economic sectors in Russia

Table 5 .
Potential for energy saving performance within different economic sectors in Russia :