Assessment of the probability of the Arctic Council expansion

The article describes the essence of the Arctic Council, the importance of the programs implemented by the Council. The activities of the Arctic Council are focused primarily on environmental issues, as well as on the sustainable development of the Arctic. Besides the member countries of the Council, other countries with an observer status and those participating in working groups in the above-mentioned areas take part in the work. The criteria for assigning the Council membership as observers are mainly economic factors. The authors suggest that the activity of the Arctic Council should not be influenced by any political motives. In this regard, it is assumed that political risk does not affect the inclusion of the state as an observer in the Arctic Council.The article presents conclusions and determines the choice of factors influencing the probability of a country joining the Arctic Council as an observer. An analysis of the literature on the influence of political factors on corporate valuation, profitability of financial assets, internal and external conflicts, etc. is conducted. Based on the empirical analysis, a conclusion is made that the probability of becoming an observer country in the Arctic Council depends on the credit risk (sovereign rating) and the level of a country's GDP. At the same time, the level of GDP and higher ratings increased the possibility of including the country in the community of observers. The authors also highlight the factors affecting the willingness and ability of a sovereign government to timely and fully service its financial, economic and fiscal obligations.