Analysis of the Vulnerability of Small-Scale Capture Fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency, Indonesia

Pangpang Bay is called a multi-use area because it has the potential not only for capture fisheries and aquaculture, but also for mangrove conservation. However, small-scale fishermen in Pangpang Bay feel the impact of climate change. The impact of climate change on fisheries can lead to vulnerability to the sustainability of fishing communities in particular The benefits of research as a basis for developing small-scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency, Indonesia. The research was conducted from March to July 2023. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method, with data collection methods using surveys and direct observation. The analytical method used is the vulnerability of capture fisheries, with data analysis carried out on 1) Exposure, the variable is sea surface temperature (SST); 2) Sensitivity, the variables are analyzed being the catch and the number of fishermen; 3) Adaptive capacity, the variables are mangrove area, number of fish landings and number of fishery instructors. The results of the study showed that for small-scale capture fisheries in Pangpang is in the category of moderate vulnerability to climate change. In this case, it has implications for policies that can increase adaptive capacity and reduce sensitivity


Introduction
"Artisanal" and "small vessel scale" fisheries are defined as fisheries that include semi-commercial or non-commercial small-scale fisheries as well as non-commercial and semi-commercial coastal fisheries [1].Small-scale fisheries (SSF) or artisanal fishing dates back to the beginning of human history and still represents a wide range of activities and occupations.Semi-subsistence agriculture is becoming increasingly associated with agriculture due to increasing marginalization and development in many parts of the developed world.The majority are in developing countries [2].Some coastal areas where many fishermen live are determined to face significant temperature changes.The impact of climate change on marine resources is also significant: reduced fish numbers due to warmer temperatures can affect fish migration patterns, incubation periods and reproduction [3].As the climate continues to change and is predicted to worsen, effective knowledge management that enables communities to learn and receive early warning of the devastating effects of climate change is critical [4].Climate change is expected to negatively impact the oceans resources and productivity.Climate change is affecting the quality, quantity and habitat of marine life [5].Coastal regions around the world remain a major source of economic activity.A significant increase in population concentration near the coast is threatening the coastal environment.At the same time, sea level rise (SLR), heavy rains, floods, and hurricanes are damaging coastal property and infrastructure.These phenomena also affect human lives and place a heavy burden on coastal communities.Coastal areas in developing countries are more vulnerable to flooding due to a lack of infrastructure and adaptive capacity to cope with the effects of climate change [6].Marine fisheries around the world are very likely to be exposed to a variety of impacts of climate change.Vulnerability to climate change is defined as the product of three variables: a) Exposure to the effects of climate change; b) the sensitivity of the economy/community/country to changes in productive capacity related to the effects of climate change; c) Adaptive capacity, the ability to modify or adapt fisheries and livelihoods to cope with the negative impacts of climate change and take advantage of new opportunities.
Vulnerability and adaptation are critical because of the complex combination of socio-economic, political and environmental factors that interact to influence vulnerability to climate change [7].Investigate the vulnerability of fisheries-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change using locally relevant indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.An important indicator determining the sensitivity of individual households is their livelihood dependence on marine fisheries.Adaptive capacity is compromised by a community's combination of physical, natural, and financial capital, and is also influenced by the diversity of livelihood strategies.The results of this analysis suggest that reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change requires building resilience through sustainability [8].Vulnerability issues are specific and urgent for prevention.It is a challenge for governments or policymakers to analyze, define and decide on effective policies.In this regard, it is necessary to know the status of vulnerability in coastal Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency, as a basis for policy making.

Material and Method
The material in the research is small-scale fishermen, mangroves, fishing bases, and fisheries instructors.The research was conducted in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency (Figure 1), in March -August 2023.The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method, with data collection methods using surveys and direct observation.The vulnerability of capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay uses data analysis conducted on exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity adopted from [9]and [10].

Exposure
The exposure in this research is the level of capture fisheries affected by climate change.Sea surface temperature (SST) was chosen as the exposure variable.SST data for the last 10 years (2012 -2021) was obtained from satellite imagery, then temporal analysis was carried out to see the SST trend in Pangpang Bay.Next, a linear regression analysis of SST is carried out to obtain the linear regression coefficient value, with the formula:  =  =  +  Information: EI(y) = Sea surface temperature a = Intercept b = Regression coefficient value for sea surface temperature (Exposure Index) x = Year The final value of the exposure index is in the range 0 -1.A value of 0 indicates low exposure, a value of 1 indicates high exposure.

Sensitivity
Sensitivity is defined as an intrinsic condition both biophysical, social and economic which is influenced by extrinsic pressure.In this study, the sensitivity of fisheries to climate change is the catch landed and the number of fishermen.From the catch data and number of fishermen, the sensitivity index value is obtained, obtained from the formula below:

Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is the potential to adapt and reduce the vulnerability of a system.Data on mangrove area, data on the number of fishing base, and data on the number of fisheries instructors. =   +   Information: AC = Adaptive capacity SM = Standardization of mangrove area STPI = Standardization of the number of fishing base The adaptive capacity index has a value from 0 to 1, a value of 0 indicates low adaptive capacity and 1 indicates high adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability Index
The vulnerability index (VI) in capture fisheries is obtained from the average value of the sum of the values of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

Exposure
Exposure in the context of this research is the degree to which capture fisheries are impacted by climate change.Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in this case was chosen as the exposure variable.The SST data used is SST data along the coast of Pangpang Bay for the last 10 years, the dynamics of which can be seen in figure 2. Year Furthermore, a temporal analysis was performed to see the average SPL trend.The next stage is linear regression to get a regression cooefficient value, and the following is the SPL linear equation for the last 10 years.Y = -57,8701 + 0,0426X Based on the linear equation above, the value of "b" which in this case the SPL regression coefficient value is 0.0426.And this number is the final value of the exposure index included in the category of moderate exposure.
The effect of sea surface temperature must be considered as a serious threat to fishing activities, especially for small scale fisheries.Effect of temperature affects fish stocks in many ways.Changes in temperature affect changes in the structure of the plankton community, causing changes in ecological time associated with the survival of fish juveniles, and cause a decrease in fish stock [9].
Indonesia is predicted to experience a decrease in potential catches above 20% in 2055 [12].Fish stock is physiologically very dependent on environmental temperature, especially in the tropics there are fish with a narrow temperature tolerance range.The increase in water temperature will be responded to by changes in fish distribution to areas where the temperature is more appropriate.For example by migrating to areas with higher latitude or deeper waters.This causes a decrease in species catch and affects the abundance and distribution of fish.
Changes in climatic conditions can lead to changes in the productivity, distribution and redistribution of global fishing potential on a large scale [13].Historical and future projections of sea surface temperature and buoyancy were used to characterize exposure to changes in ocean structure.Historical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were calculated as spatial averages [14].
Comparing present and future vulnerability scenarios, vulnerability will increase.The largest changes in vulnerability were explained by a change in: sea surface temperature; richness of the natural banks and change in the catch; wetland tourist corridors, port infrastructure and population density; proportion of protected natural areas relative to the fishing zones, presence and size of protected natural areas [13].
The rise in SST has implications for wind systems, precipitation, and weather patterns.Various studies have established a relationship between the rise in SST and tropical cyclonic disturbances and extremes.With the use of the actuaries climate index, an increase in anomaly for warm temperatures since 1970 was observed, resulting in a more intense cyclonic storm beyond the 1970s globally [15].When SST is used as an explanatory variable, the results are better for both fish catch and pelagic catch [13].
That an increase in SST leads to a decrease in the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water, compensating for the need for oxygen by increasing their metabolic rate through more activity, leading to a decrease in the body size of these fish .The third factor contributing to the decline in fish catches is more economic in nature and may be due to overfishing and intensive exploitation of fishery resources rather than natural growth and production cycles.Furthermore, the role of mangroves in preserving marine ecosystems has been described in various studies [16].

Sensitivity
The sensitivity in this study is a small scale fisheries sensitivity to climate change, namely the captured fish and the number of fishermen.Catch data obtained from the results of direct field surveys, while the number of small -scale fishermen obtained from local village data, can be seen in Table 1.
The results of the analysis in determining the sensitivity index value are 0.33.Based on the number, the sensitivity index in Pangpang Bay is included in the moderate sensitivity category.The sensitivity of a small scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay to climate change is represented by a combination of the number of fishermen and catches.Fishermen and catches are the first variables affected by climate change.Increased sea surface temperature will result in shifting distribution patterns, catching fish reproduction patterns that will increase the cost of operational capture, ships, fuel, fishing gear that is more appropriate [17].Changes in sea surface temperature will affect the number of fishermen and catches.Fishermen will switch livelihoods and the catch will decrease.
In addition, recent climate change projections for global fisheries have shown a downward trend in fishing yields [18].Reasons for this decline include marine pollution, e.g., the presence of plastic in oceans and oil spills, rapid urbanization, climate change and human population growth.people continue to put pressure on ecological services and natural resource functions [19].
In previous studies, different vulnerability indicators were classified according to three broader dimensions, i.e. management, socioeconomic and ecological.For each dimension, factors that can amplify or reduce susceptibility to human-induced stress include level of infrastructure development, project implementation, government transparency, poverty levels, the condition of coral reefs and mangrove forest cover, and the actual catch of fishermen [20].
Around the world, many exploited marine species are experiencing population declines due to overfishing and other stressors, including climate change.Furthermore, systematic differences between different species in their fishability are partly responsible for the growing dominance of the least vulnerable fish species in global catches, of which the species is the most vulnerable and susceptible to overexploitation [21].

Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is the potential to adapt and reduce the vulnerability of a system.In this study the selected variables were mangroves, fishing base, fisheries instructors and Fisheries Special Allocation Funds in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency.More detailed can be seen in Table 2. Based on the table above, the adaptive capacity value for small scale fisheries in Pangpang Bay is 0.42 where the number is in the medium category.The high value of ACI shows that the small -scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay have the ability to respond and reduce the impact of climate change.
Adaptive capacity is composed of variables that represent natural, physical, financial and human resources assets [22].The area of mangroves is a natural asset that provides ecological benefits to capture fisheries.This ecosystem plays an important role in the continuation of inshore and offshore fisheries productivity.This contributes as a contributor to nutrients and food sources to detritivor, as a shelter, spawning and parenting of various biota (fish, shrimp), and maintaining ecological balance [23].The value of this variable shows that small -scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay will have a natural protector from climate change.
Adaptive capacity is composed of variables that represent natural, physical, financial and human resources assets (Hughes et al., 2012).The area of mangroves is a natural asset that provides ecological benefits to capture fisheries.This ecosystem plays an important role in the continuation of inshore and offshore fisheries productivity.This contributes as a contributor to nutrients and food sources to detritivor, as a shelter, spawning and parenting of various biota (fish, shrimp), and maintaining ecological balance [23].The value of this variable shows that small -scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay will have a natural protector from climate change.
To identify strategies that enhance the resilience of the fishing industry, it is important to take into account local contexts and timelines [24].Other variables are fishing base namely physical assets (manmade) and special allocation funds in the field of maritime and fisheries, namely financial assets to help fund physical development activities in the field of marine and fisheries.The variable fisheries instructor is one of the efforts of the government to increase the human resources of fishermen, the amount of this variable shows that there is information sharing in capture fisheries activities to deal with climate change.

Vulnerability Index
This analysis is a pioneer in establishing an initial framework for estimating the vulnerability of capture fisheries due to climate change in the Pangpang Bay area, Banyuwangi Regency.Understanding the combination of components that influence the vulnerability of small-scale capture fisheries provides a starting point for future research and for adaptation and mitigation of small-scale capture fisheries to climate change.
Based on the results of the analysis of the vulnerability index (VI) with weighting and without weighting, it produces differences in the order of the vulnerability index.The status of vulnerability of small-scale capture fisheries using these two methods is different in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency.However, there is a strong relationship between the two VI values (with and without weighting) (Pearson's r = 0.892).So this research focuses on a simpler method without weighting, where the calculation results show that the vulnerability index of Pangpang Bay is moderate as in Table 3. Wringinputih Village, although the adaptation value is high, the sensitivity value reaches a very high value compared to the other three villages.In this regard, the combination of the three vulnerability subindices, namely the exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index, influences the vulnerability of small-scale capture fisheries in several ways.
Areas that are less able to adapt are not necessarily the most vulnerable areas, due to the influence of low exposure or low sensitivity.This means that climate change has different impacts on each region [8].
Differences in the arrangement of vulnerabilities determine specific policies based on the different dimensions of the vulnerability.For example, a specific policy taken to reduce exposure will be different from a policy to build adaptive capacity.Several policies to reduce vulnerability, namely: 1) Short term policy (less than 1 year); policies that emphasize reducing impacts in the most vulnerable areas; 2) Medium term policy (less than 5 years), a policy to increase adaptation capacity and reduce sensitivity; 3) Long term policy, reducing exposure by mitigating climate change.These three policies are divided into local and national scales [25].
Some examples of short term policies at a local scale that can be implemented are improving the weather forecast information system for fishing, changing fishing ground, and adding or modifying fishing gear.And on a national scale, for example, providing interest-free loans and subsidies for fishermen.Actions in the medium term policy include strengthening local communities in managing fisheries resources and ecosystems, and improving and developing infrastructure for small-scale capture fisheries activities.Meanwhile, on a national scale, investing in an early warning system to reduce exposure to the dangers of bad weather, carrying out adaptation planning (for example the Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap in the Maritime and Fisheries Sector) and investing in infrastructure development.Long-term policy on a local scale is to implement preservation areas or marine protected areas and carry out outreach, education and community formation that emphasizes the ecological sustainability of coastal and marine environments.On a national scale, namely investing in alternative energy to reduce global warming, investing in education, skills and knowledge for fishermen as well as improving the quality of government work in fields that cover fisheries, maritime affairs and the environment.
As a preliminary study in presenting a framework for estimating the vulnerability of small-scale capture fisheries due to climate change, there are many limitations and room to improve research in this field in the future, especially in the index variables and the formulation of vulnerability index models for small-scale capture fisheries.In this analysis, the influence of climate change on capture fisheries is only represented by one variable, namely SST.Several studies such as suggested adding variables that more specifically influence capture fisheries, for example the intensity of extreme natural events (waves/storms) [8], whereas suggested adding the variables ultraviolet radiation (UV), chlorophyll, surface currents, wind speed, Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), and primary production [25].
Small-scale fisheries is of great importance in terms of employment opportunities and contribution to the economies of coastal communities in Europe: They are estimated to create about half of all direct jobs in the EU's fishing industry, accounting for 83% of fishing vessels and a quarter of the value of the catch [21].
The limited data available in the small-scale fisheries (SSF) hinders an in-depth understanding of the socioeconomic processes taking place in each community, but by modeling the available data in this way, we can assess assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of communities in terms of their vulnerability to changes in fishing laws.The success of marine resource co-management is closely linked to resource dependence.Therefore, top-down controls are often ineffective without the credibility of the regulatory structure, the ability to successfully negotiate new regulatory structures, and the positive impact of self-regulation on compliance [26].
In a context of open access and low-input fisheries that are critical to food security, supporting rightsbased approaches and input controls must be a top priority to address.prevent output reduction when the number of fishermen increases.However, some of the biggest challenges in controlling inputs to artisanal fisheries are growing coastal populations and weak institutional support, which are putting increasing pressure on resources and complicating the allocation of marine resource management rights.A history of conflict has exacerbated this situation, causing fear and lack of trust in participatory processes [27].
If there is policy intervention to create more alternative livelihoods at the local level, the number of fishers migrating out of their communities to find work could decrease.This will lead to an increase in the livelihood diversity index, which in turn will indicate a reduction in the vulnerability of livelihood strategies [28].This research is a pioneer in establishing an initial framework to estimate the vulnerability of a system, namely capture fisheries due to climate change in Pangpang Bay.Furthermore, adaptation and mitigation of capture fisheries to climate change can be carried out.

Conclusion
The vulnerability index (VI) of small-scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency is 0.32, which means that vulnerability is in the medium category to climate change.Meanwhile, the components of VI are: 1) Exposure, included in the medium category; 2) Sensitivity, including the moderate category; 3) Adaptive Capacity, included in the medium category for climate change.

Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank the Doctoral Program of Fisheries Science and Marine, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Universitas Brawijaya Malang, Indonesia, for the opportunity to take the doctoral program and produce output including this article.
of the number of fishermen S_HT = Standardization of catches The value is from 0 to 1, a value of 0 indicates low sensitivity and 1 indicates high sensitivity.IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1328/1/0120074

Table 1 .
The Sensitivity Index of A Small Scale Fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency.

Table 2 .
The Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) of a small scale capture fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency.

Table 3 .
Vulnerability Index (VI) of Small-Scale Capture Fisheries in Pangpang Bay, Banyuwangi Regency.Looking at the table above, the vulnerability value of Pangpang Bay is in the medium category, with the vulnerability value of Pangpang Bay from three villages also being moderate, and only one village has low vulnerability to climate change.This is because the adaptation value in Kedungasri Village is very high, while in Kedungringin and Kedunggebang Villages the adaptation value is low.And for