Estimation of carrying capacity and price discrimination using carrying capacity analysis and willingness to pay for sustainable tourism (case of Bukit Kehi, East Java, Indonesia)

Bukit Kehi is one of the natural tourism in East Java. One of the factors that can influence tourists' decisions to travel is the natural scenery and comfort of tourist attractions which can be obtained by maintaining the condition of the tourist environment. Given that the number of visits during the peak season is more than the low season, it can affect the condition of the natural tourism environment which is prone to damage and can reduce the comfort of tourists, therefore the purpose of this study is to estimate the carrying capacity and price discrimination on natural tourism. This research was conducted by carrying capacity analysis and Willingness to Pay (WTP). The data used are primary data derived from interviews with tourists, tourism managers and secondary data from related documents or literature. The results showed that Bukit Kehi has a carrying capacity for recreational activities of 371 people / day or 11,130 people / month or 134,515 people / year. The ticket price that should be applied during peak season is IDR 8,000. Based on these findings, Bukit Kehi tourist attraction is still under carrying capacity and can increase the number of tourist visits to the maximum limit of the carrying capacity of the tourism destination.


Introduction
Tourism is a priority sector and is one of the sectors that can make contribution to economic growth [1][2][3], job creation [3][4][5], community development and encourage regional development [6,7].According to Spillane [8], tourism is the activity of travelling for pleasure, satisfaction, knowledge, improvement of health, sport or recreation, fulfilment of duties and pilgrimage.Cooper et al. [9] suggest that tourism is a series of travel activities undertaken by individuals, families or groups from their place of origin to various other places for tourist visits and not for work or income at the destination.The intended visit is temporary (1day, 1week, 1month) and eventually returns to the place of origin.
Types of tourism can be divided into 3 namely nature, culture and special interest tourism [10] Tourism in Indonesia is based on nature and culture [5,11].In Indonesia, the motivation for foreign and domestic tourists to visit is partly due to natural resources [12], therefore the type of tourism that is in demand is nature tourism.Tourism depends on the quality of the area and its natural resources [13].Preserving the environment is therefore very important for the sustainability of tourism.Sustainable tourism is defined as tourism that aims to conserve the resources that will be needed for its development in the future [14].
The motto back to nature implies people's awareness of the role of nature and its resources.People began to turn back to enjoy or admire the beauty and live naturally in friendship with nature.This desire in turn gave birth to an interest in doing nature tourism activities.Nature tourism is defined as travelling to unspoilt areas that can conserve and maintain the welfare of local communities [2] or tourism that bases its objects and attractions on natural beauty [10].
Bukit Kehi is one of the natural tourism destinations in demand by tourists.It offers the beauty of the natural panorama of the hills surrounding this tourist destination.The existence of Bukit Kehi tourism provides economic benefits in the form of labour absorption, a source of income for tourism managers and business communities that come from tourist spending.Therefore, the number of tourists will affect the amount of economic benefits received.
Tourists will visit again if the tour offers comfort.Comfort is one of the indicators that can make tourists visit tourist attractions again, because if the tourist attractions do not give a comfortable impression, the place will not be a reference destination or recommended again.One of the things that can determine comfort and satisfaction is the carrying capacity of tourism [15].Assessing carrying capacity can be a parameter for managers in developing tourist areas [16].Therefore, the carrying capacity of tourist areas that pay attention to aspects of comfort, especially the physical carrying capacity of tourist sites must be considered.In addition, another benefit of knowing the carrying capacity of the environment is that it can minimise environmental impacts [17].The environmental impact in question can take the form of damage to the natural environment of tourist sites, both fauna and flora, which exist in tourist sites that are the attraction of nature tourism to be visited.
Mathieson and Wall [18] define carrying capacity as the maximum number of people that can be accommodated in one place without degradation of the physical quality of the environment, without degradation of the quality of comfort of the tourist visitor, and without negative effects on the social, economic and cultural conditions around the tourist destination.Begen [19] suggests that carrying capacity is the level at which natural resources or ecosystems can be used in a sustainable manner without causing damage to the resources and the environment.Carrying capacity is a dynamic rather than a static concept [20]; each tourist destination has its own priorities and the carrying capacity of each region varies according to its environmental conditions [21].Although the concept first emerged in the 1970s and 1980s, it has received a great deal of attention in recent years as part of an effective strategy for dealing with environmental, economic and social issues [22,23].And carrying capacity is part of the principle towards sustainable tourism [24] For nature tourism to be sustainable, it needs to be segmented, as it can help protect the environment [25,26].Segmentation can take the form of setting ticket prices for tourist attractions.The aim is to divide the number of visitors into peak and low seasons.Since the high number of visitors during holidays (peak season) in comparison to normal days (low season) can lead to overcapacity, which can have a negative impact on the environment, it is hoped that visitors who are unwilling to pay high prices during the peak season will be able to travel at lower prices during the low season.Pricing (tickets) in the tourism sector can be done in two ways, single pricing and price segmentation, where price segmentation can be more profitable than single pricing [17].Other benefits of price segmentation in tourism include increased revenues [27].

Methods
Sampling was carried out by purposive sampling.According to Mardalis [28], purposive sampling is a way of obtaining samples that are done in a deliberate manner and by using certain plans.Respondent who were interviewed were tourists visiting Bukit Kehi tourism.Tourists are selected and adjusted to the representation of certain criteria, such as based on the time of visit (low season or peak season) and visitor demographics such as the age of the respondents selected are visitors who are mature enough with a minimum age of 17 years who have physical and mental health criteria, able to communicate well and understand the material from the questionnaire given.In addition, interviews with key persons include interviews with the manager of Bukit Kehi tourism.
The data used for the study are primary and secondary data.Primary data was collected by interviewing the Manager of Bukit Kehi tourism and tourists visiting Bukit Kehi.Secondary data is required to describe the general condition of the research site.Secondary data was obtained Government Tourist Office, Pamekasan Regency, documents owned by the management of Bukit Kehi Tourism, related agencies and literature studies.
The carrying capacity of the tourist area of Bukit Kehi has been carried out using the carrying capacity analysis according to Yulianda et al [29] while determining the entrance ticket price for Bukit Kehi tourism during peak season based on visitors' willingness to pay with the turn bull method [30].

Carrying Capacity Analysis
According to Yulianda et al [31], the carrying capacity of the environment can be calculated using the equation: Description: DDK = carrying capacity (people) K= Ecological potential of visitors per unit area Lp= Area or length of utilized area (m 2 ) Lt= Unit area for a specific category (m 2 ) Wp= Time provided by the area for tourism activities in 1 day (hours/day) Wt= Time spent by visitors on each specific activity per day (in hours per day)

Price Discrimination Using Turn Bull Method
This approach relies on the distribution of respondents' "no" answers to the "bid" question responses.By knowing the distribution of respondents answering no (Fj).The lower bound value of WTP is calculated with the following formula [30]: Description: Bj = bid Fj = the proportion of the distribution "no" F*j+1 = value of Fj+1 -Fj

Carrying Capacity of Bukit Kehi
Developing tourism has caused environmental problems that cannot be ignored, and the contradiction between developing tourism and environmental ecology is becoming more apparent [32].Tourism and other recreational activities have put great pressure on nature [33].At the same time, tourists are highly sensitive to social, cultural and ecological quality.Therefore, destinations must be managed for sustainability, otherwise destination will lose the ability to generate profits from the tourism industry [34].Nature tourism is one of the activities that need to be developed in support of sustainable development [35,36].
As a natural tourist destination that reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of visitors to Bukit Kehi has gradually returned to normal as before the pandemic.The concept of carrying capacity of tourism is a powerful concept to apply to sustainable tourism planning and management.The concept of carrying capacity is a means of managing tourism flows to a destination.The increasing number of tourists may lead to excess carrying capacity [37] if the excess number of visitors results in damage to the region [38].Furthermore, determining carrying capacity is important for visitor comfort and satisfaction [39].
As the number of tourists increases, the likelihood of ecosystem damage increases [40].This is in line with Sugiarto's [41] findings, where the number of tourists exceeding the carrying capacity of the environment can cause deterioration of the physical environment, disturbance of the living space of the animals present, and disturbance of the comfort of the tourists because of the limited space of movement caused by overcrowding.Furthermore, Vanhove [17] stated that knowing the carrying capacity of the environment can help minimise environmental impacts.Based on this, it is important to apply carrying capacity in tourist attractions.Data on the area of the tourist area that can be utilised by visitors to carry out tourist activities is needed in calculating the optimum capacity or carrying capacity of the area.The area of Bukit Kehi tourist area that can be utilised for tourism activities is 10,000 m 2 .Referring to the formula of Yulianda et al. [29] then the carrying capacity of Bukit Kehi tourism based on primary data (Table 1 Bukit Kehi tourism has an area carrying capacity of 371 people/day, meaning that at the same time, a total time of 10 hours is provided by the area for one day, and the time used by tourists for beach tourism activities for 2.4 hours, the number that can be accommodated at that location is 371 people.The number of visitors to Bukit Kehi tourism is still under carrying capacity (Table 2), this shows the number of visitors to Bukit Kehi tourism has not threatened the environmental conditions of Bukit Kehi tourism.Tourism managers can continue to increase the maximum number of visitors according to the carrying capacity (Table 1).
Tourism has a peak season and a low season, The peak season is the period when tourist visits increase sharply, on the other hand, the low season or the period of decline in tourist visits such as during fasting periods, and when there are no holidays.Bukit Kehi Tourism experiences peak season in certain months caused by several events such as Eid al-Fitr (May), Christmas (December) and New Year holidays (January).Visitors during the peak season are far more than the number of visitors during the low season (Table 2).The calculation of the physical carrying capacity is certainly very helpful for tourism management because the physical carrying capacity can be easily accepted by the local government because it can describe the amount of income that will be received from the tourist attraction in question [42].

Price Discrimination (Peak Season Ticket Price)
Tourism segmentation that we often encounter is price segmentation.Price segmentation is done based on the economic ability or purchasing power of consumers.Everyone must have different economic abilities.Some people can afford to buy products at high prices, and vice versa, some people can only afford products at low prices.Vibriyanto [43] states that the application of tourist ticket price segmentation causes the distribution of tourists from peak season to low season, namely a decrease in the number of tourists in peak season and an increase in the number of visitors in low season so that this can reduce the potential for over carrying capacity during peak season.Pricing in the tourism sector can be done in two ways, namely single pricing and price discrimination, where price discrimination can be more profitable than single pricing [17].
Price discrimination is a strategy of setting the selling price of the same good or service but at different prices [41] to increase both total revenue and profit [40].Price discrimination strategies can benefit both consumers and sellers, leading to consumer and producer welfare [44].Leading to consumer and producer welfare [44].In addition, this strategy can help sellers recover their fixed costs without leaving many potential customers unserved [45].
Price discrimination is applied because the company sees differences in the characteristics of the demand it faces.According to Syae [46], discrimination pricing has six forms, namely: customer segment pricing, form pricing, image pricing, channel pricing, location pricing and time pricing.Discriminatory pricing carried out in this research is time pricing because it divides ticket prices into ticket prices during low season and peak season.
In the tourism industry, tourism managers can change prices as they wish but if tourists perceive the admission policy to be unfair, this will affect tourist satisfaction and decisions as they will not return to visit in the future.Therefore, it is important to pay attention to reasonable, fair pricing, because there is a positive relationship between perceived price fairness and tourist satisfaction [47][48][49][50].Price is an important determinant in determining consumer choice [51].Pricing is an important tool in the tourism industry [52].Professional pricing is a price that is very close to the highest price that buyers are ready to pay, namely a price that will not only maximise profits but also maintain customer loyalty [52] where we can get this by asking visitors' willingness to pay for the tourism products offered.Willingness to pay is defined as the amount a person is willing to pay for the maximum price of goods and services [53].Willingness to pay is very important to protect consumers from the danger of monopoly companies related to prices and the provision of quality products [54].Based on the results of the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of visitors to ticket prices if tickets are applied during peak and low seasons, WTP data is obtained during peak season (Table 3).The low season ticket price is the current ticket price of IDR 5,000 per person.Imposing an entrance ticket price in the peak season is a challenge for the manager of the Bukit Kehi because setting prices during the peak season can affect consumer psychology which ultimately affects purchasing decisions.
Table 3 shows the distribution of respondents who answered no to each bid.The expected WTP (EWTP) value using the Turnbull method is obtained by multiplying the bid value by the fj* value, which is the subtraction of the upper and lower intervals of the distribution of respondents who said no.The expected WTP obtained using the Turnbull method is IDR 8,267.The WTP result is obtained with the following calculation: The expected WTP value shows the amount of ticket fare that can be spent by visitors to Bukit Kehi during peak season.This shows that visitors are willing to pay more than the low season ticket price to enjoy Bukit Kehi tourism.The application of peak season ticket prices can be used to improve facilities and increase environmental conservation funds in the Bukit Kehi tourist area.

Conclusion
The current number of visitors has not exceeded the carrying capacity of tourism or is still below the carrying capacity value of the area, the number of tourists visiting Bukit Kehi can be increased.The carrying capacity per day of the Bukit Kehi Tourism area is 371 people, the carrying capacity per month of Bukit Kehi Tourism reaches 11,130 people and the carrying capacity per year of the Bukit Kehi Tourism area is 135,415 people.The results of the calculation of Willingness to Pay carried out to visitors to Bukit Kehi Tourism recommended the application of price discrimination related to entrance tickets that should be applied at the Bukit Kehi Tourism site during the low season which is IDR 5,000 while for peak season conditions IDR 8,000.

Tabel 3 .
Calculation of Peak Season Ticket Price.