Analysis of potential land use conflict for reducing landslide risk in Tawangmangu District Karanganyar Regency

Increasing demands for land use and limited resources lead to land use conflicts. Identification and resolution of land use conflicts is very important in order to use land resources fairly and achieve sustainable development. The research location is Tawangmangu District, Central Java Province. Based on its geographical conditions, Tawangmangu District is an area prone to landslides. Increasing tourism development in the Tawangmangu sub-district has the potential for land use conflicts and will affect the risk of landslides. The research objectives are: (1). Analyzing of Land Use Changes in Tawangmangu District in 2013 - 2023, (2). Analyzing Patterns of Land Use Conflict in Tawangmangu District in 2013 - 2023, (3). Analyzing Land Use Conflict Patterns for Reducing Landslide Risk in Tawangmangu in 2023. The research method is a survey method, the research form is descriptive quantitative with a spatial approach. In this study, spatial descriptions of land use, changes in land use, patterns of land use conflicts in the study area are displayed in the form of thematic maps. Data collection methods are field observations, interviews, document review, image and map interpretation. The main data source for land use is multi-temporal satellite imagery of the Tawangmangu District area. The analysis used is spatial analysis which is processed using a Geographic Information System with the output in the form of land use change maps and land use conflict pattern maps. The results of the study show that there have been significant changes in land use during the period 2013 - 2023, and spatially a pattern of land use conflicts has been formed in the Tawangmangu District.


Introduction
Tawangmangu district is part of Karanganyar Regency, Central Java Province which this region is located at West Lawu Mountain slope and directly adjacent to East Java Province.As a strategic area to live in and tourism, Tawangmangu District has increased population in the last ten years.Recorded since 2013 -2023 Tawangmangu District has increased population an 10,47% with total of population 48886 people in the first 2023 years.This population growth is indicated by growth in the region and land use change in Tawangmangu District [1].Land change has an impact on the loss of agricultural land, degradation of land, and affects biodiversity and the ability of ecosystems to support human life [2].The land use change and increase in land use demand was brought to decreasing natural resource and increased trigger conflict potential between land use in Tawangmangu District [3].Land use potential conflict has occurred because of various factors such as a limited space caused by competition among different land use types, contradiction due to undesired land use externalities, deviation from land use 1314 (2024) 012088 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1314/1/012088 2 sustainability, and so forth [4][5][6].An example of land use conflict is a conflict between construct land and cultivated land or ecological land with construct land [4].
Land use conflicts occur when land use stakeholders have incompatible interests related to a particular land use unit or when a particular land use conflicts with ecological and environmental protection [3,7,8].Physical and socio-economic condition are can lead land use conflict.This can be seen from the physical condition generally caused by many land use utilities and socio-economic conflict has occurred causing high land demand due to population growth [9].That example is a reality and potentially occurs in Tawangmangu District with the land is fertile and used for agriculture or tourism land and resort as well as use to ecological land with forest sector growth.
Despite the land-rich potential and high conflict potential at Tawangmangu District, there is a threat of landslide disaster which can occur anytime.Morphology characteristics at Tawangmangu District like sloping to every step can impact landslide disaster occurs [10].Besides the slope factor, another main factor that caused landslides in Tawangmangu District is the soil was prone to erosion as well as unsuitable land use.Especially due rainy season which increases landslide disaster trigger and become a bigger threat to the Tawangmangu District community [10].Remembered at biggest landslide history record in Tawangmangu District occurred at 2007 and took dozens of lives as a result of being hit by landslide materials or buildings [11].Then research about land use change which affected land use conflict potential was needed pattern analysts as well as land use change or land use conflict can instruct landslide risk reduction in Tawangmangu District.

Land Use Classification
The first steep land use classification is Interpretation IKONOS Satelite Imaginary 2013 and 2023.There are use visual interpretation with 8 guidance interpretation and the next step is digitization with GIS Software.The land use classification is based on SNI 7645-2010 and customized for research purposes in Tawangmangu District.Then, the land use has been classified for the next step is the accuracy test with omission accuracy and commission accuracy test.As a comparison ground surveys to land use 2023 accuracy test and using land use map of Tawangmangu District are published by BAPPEDA Karanganyar Regency to land use 2013 accuracy test.The number of points validated is the number of polygons made on the maps therefore expected to have high accuracy.

Land Use Change
Land use change analysis performed with land use maps comparison 2013 and 2023 which have been validated using commission and omission accuracy test.The method uses overlay analysis with GIS Software.This overlay analyst can know the type of statistic, area, distribution, trend, and land use change pattern in Tawangmangu District for 10 years

Land Use Conflict Potential
The method used in land use conflict analysis is qualitative descriptive with correlation spatial analysis.The analyst is guided by previous research which has classified the types and potential of land use conflict into 4 classes namely, intensive conflict, medium conflict, weak conflict, and no conflict.The spatial correlation was considered a strong binder factor from land use change, that is linking the proximity of Tawangmangu -Magetan road.Buffer analysis is used by radius average to proximity tourism objects, resorts, villas, restaurants, and others that can have more potential to contribute factor to land use change and land use conflict with the road.Land use included in the conflict, among others, construct land, cultivated land, and ecological land (Table 1).There is an adjustment land use classification in this research, the aim is to make changes in land use that have occurred in more detailed.Therefore, this research adopted land use classification, among other forest, shrub, residential, cropland, cultivated crop, orchard, and construct land (e.g.villas, resorts, ourism places, and restaurants) (Table 2).

Land use
The result of land use interpretation from IKONOS Imagenery 2013 and 2023 in Tawangmangu District will be tested with the omission and commission test accuracy.Based on the result accurate test stated the land use map of Tawangmagu district 2013 and 2023 has been qualified for further research (Table 1 and table 2).There are various kinds of land use in Tawangmangu district.Usually, the lands used as settlements or construct land are inclined to stand on the middle region and extend on the province road.
While afterward it is used to cultivated land example, cultivated crops, cropland, and orchad, and surrounded by forest or shrub with forest area domination.(Figure 1).[12].Land use changes that occurred in Tawangmangu District were caused by tourism, residential, and trade activities [13].Meanwhile, the increase in forest area was caused by forest and bushfires that occurred on the slopes of Gunung Lawu, where forest plants or bushes have now grown.Plant growth following forest fires is a process of vegetation regeneration that results in a mosaic pattern [14].However, this regeneration is also accompanied by the conversion of forests into cultivated or developed land and has great potential to become a trend of land change and land use conflicts in the following years in line with the high demand for land.On the other hand, previous research states that the transition of forests to cultivated or developed land cannot be separated from regional and even national level patterns related to changes in forest land use [15].

Land use conflict
Potential land use conflicts occur when two or more land uses have high complexity on a part of the land.[16].Intensive conflict based on productive land for cultivate crop sector, construct land, settlement, or the first function is a forest.Then, the area is considered to have intensive conflict and is periodically predicted to turn into tourist attractions or land clearing for cultivate crop.While the area currently being used cultivated land has been potentially changing to construct land due to gentrification in Tawangmangu District.For example, rampant inns and camps in Sekipan, Gondosuli Village which initially the land was cultivated land, now has been oriented to construct land for tourist demand.Settlements in Gondosuli Village have also experienced a transition to land used for trade and services [13].Furthermore, the conflict based on Tawangmangu District is more medium prone, because currently domination land use is settlements and resorts or hotels.Accordingly, the potential land use conflicts that occur are settlements change to resorts or villas, etc. Weak conflict land use tends to occur outside of road buffers.Generally, that area is just used for farming activities.Occur conflict cause forest or shrub change to cultivated crop or orchadUsually, the current change of pattern is found in the outskirts of Tawangmangu Sub-District, Sepanjang Village, Tengkling Village, and Nglebak Village.Furthermore, the croplands change to cultivated crops occur tend in Karanglo, Bandardawung, and a small part of Plumbon Village.This change includes medium conflict because there is no significant pattern involved crop lands to settlement and tends to turn into cultivated crop.High and very high-class landslide risk in Tawangmangu District tend to be focused in Bulmbang, Kalisoro, Sepanjang Village, and Tawangmangu Sub-District (Figure 6).The thing to note is the prone and vulnerability are highest prone and vulnerability not followed with sufficient capacity therefore increasing landslide risk (Figure 6).Based on (Figure 3a), this high-very high risk of landslides is also related to land changes in Tawangmangu District.Because vegetation can increase infiltration, stabilize soil aggregates and reduce soil erosion [17].Different from Tengklik Village which incidentally has high prone and vulnerability and the community has a high capacity therefore minimizing losses due to landslide (Figure 6).Land use conflict correlation and landslide risk from both maps overlay represent are inrensify conflict and high-very high risk tend in Bumbang Village (Figure 7).The area is 14,2 Ha for intensive conflict and high risk as well as 120,6 Ha for regions with intensive or medium conflict with high risk.The result of conflict and medium risk occur in Tawangmangu Sub-District, Kalisoro, and Gondosuli Villages.Despite the intensive conflict area being more wide-scale than Gondosuli Village, did not rule out the risk of landslides turning from medium to high if there have been unsuitable land use changes.The situation is getting worse with the increase of immigrants and the decrease of community capacity in dealing with disasters.

Conclussions
Tawangmangu District land use change tends to spread in various villages or Sub-District.Within the last 10 years increasing construct land to tourist places, hotels, villas, restaurants, and others, especially in close areas from Tawangmangu-Magetan road.The forest close to that area has been converted to construct land.The cultivated crop when usually planted by the community, currently changed to lodging or others.While the high decrease occurred in cropland with 3,5% or 220 Ha changed to cultivated lands.
Land use conflict in Tawangmangu district tends intensive on Gondosuli, Blumbang, and Kalisoro Village especially close to Tawangmangu-Magetan Road.Based on the pattern from spatial correlation analysis, the land can be used for forest region, productive land for agriculture, and utilized to construct land for supporting the tourism sector.Other than that reason, intensive conflict tends cant happen in the middle area that is Tawangmangu District because that area had been "pretty solid" with many settlements.
Landslide risk occurring in Tawangmangu District is a threat to the community and tourists.Based on risk landslide analysis in Tawanamgnu District, Blumbang Village became the region with highest risk landslide disaster with high-very high classes.Followed by Gondosuli, Kalisoro, Sepanjang Villages, and Tawangmangu Sub-District with medium-high classes.The result of overlay analysis from land use conflict and landslide risk gave a pattern that intensive conflict in Blumbang Village followed by high-very high landslide risk disaster.While intensive conflict tends more in Gondosuli Village just gives medium risk landslide but, doesn't rule out the possibility for the next year Gondosuli Village to be high risk if there is unsuitable land use.It is true that reforestation-based mitigation is a cost-effective method, however, it can have an impact on socio-economic development [18][19][20][21].Returning land to its function to reduce the risk of landslides tends to be difficult in the midst of high-land conflicts.Accordingly, the stakeholders necessary for mitigation directives for risk landslide reduction stipulate regulations regarding land use suitable or capacity.Therefore, tourism or Tawanmangu District Land tends to be safe and less potentially occur landslide disaster.

Figure 2 .Figure 3 .
Figure 2. Land use map of Tawangmangu district 2013 (a) and Land use map of Tawangmangu District 2023

Figure 7 .
Figure 7. Overlay of land use conflict and landslide risk in Tawangmangu District 2023 (a) and Area of overlay land use conflict and landslide risk in Tawangmangu District 2023 (b)

Table 1 .
Types of land use conflict and their expected change directions classifiedLand use tends to convert into cultivated land and construction land, and the probability to convert to construction land is greater, but still less than that for the intense conflict areas.

Table 2 .
Land use classification adjustment Land use conflict potential and landslide risk The first steep land use classification is Interpretation IKONOS Satelite Imaginary 2013 and 2023.There is use visual interpretation with 8 guidance interpretation and the next step is digitization with GIS Software.The land use classification is based on SNI 7645-2010 and customized for research purposes in Tawangmangu District.Then, the land use has been classified for the next step is the accuracy test with omission accuracy and commission accuracy test.As a comparison ground surveys to land use 2023 accuracy test and using land use map of Tawangmangu District are published by BAPPEDA Karanganyar Regency to land use 2013 accuracy test.The number of points validated is the number of polygons made on the maps therefore expected to have high accuracy.

Table 3 .
Spatial correlation between land use conflict and landslide risk

Table 4 .
Interpretation accuracy test of land use Tawangmangu District 2013

Table 5 .
Interpretation accuracy test of land use Tawangmangu District 2023