Utilizing synoptic scale climate data within sustainable tourism development

Tourism has great potential to be used as a tool towards achieving sustainable development. The appropriate implementation of sustainable tourism methods helps to establish local economic viability in concert with attentive treatment of both social and environmental systems. Maintaining such environmental and social integrity within a location is often the basis by which tourism demand is generated—drawing tourists from across the world. In this paper, we specifically address the use of climate information within Nepal where tourism in the Himalayas is driven by the human-nature interface and the unique culture which has developed in this alpine environment. In doing so, we highlight how focusing on a synoptic scale climatological analysis can provide valuable information within a sustainable tourism development context. Literature has established that tourists operate in ‘realms’ of climatic comfort that might be readily described through synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena using descriptors such as ‘humid cool’ and ‘warm humid’ conditions. Variables of the Gridded Weather Typing Classification (GWTC-2) are used to describe local climate and climate change. Analyzing weather and climate data within a tourist-centric synoptic-scale context provides a new perspective to more fully understand sustainable development within the weather, climate, and tourism nexus.


Introduction
The nature of sustainable development can come in many different forms.Economic development historically has followed a traditional path from agrarian to industrial manufacture to a more servicebased orientation.This 'traditional path' however does not fit every society, community, or culture.Unique geographies that exist within our world hamper the ability to follow this traditional path to development.In particular, the Himalayan country of Nepal (Perkins, 2023;Birendra, 202;Shakya, 2009;World Bank, Group, 2022) or Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the South Pacific and Caribbean (Cannonier, 2019;Spencer, 2018;Roudi et al, 2019) are geographic areas in which a different pathway to development is needed for success.Such locations, with their unique physical geographies, are remote to global manufacturing supply chains, but attractive to many people traveling throughout our world.Relying on unique and exciting geography can pull in tourists to help with economic development of a region.We look more in depth at Nepal in which tourism has served (NTB, 2018;Gautam, 2011) and will continue to serve as an important vehicle for sustainable development in the long-term.
2 Sustainable development looks at culture, society, economics, and environment.Understanding the influence that the environment, and in this case the climate, is key for assessing long-term tourism demands.In light of changing environmental conditions, namely the changing climate system, Nepal is at great risk (Nyaupane, 2009;Bhattacharjee et al., 2017) and therefore better understanding between the tourist and atmospheric environment interface is very important.
In this paper we explore a particular scalar aspect of weather, climate, and the changing climate called the synoptic scale weather system.All aspects of weather and climate are important for understanding environmental sustainability and the interface tourists will have with participating in a highly outdoor-oriented tourism market as is seen in Nepal.We argue, that synoptic-scale weather and climate information (Sheridan, 2002;Lee, 2015Lee, , 2018Lee, , 2020) ) serves as an informative and appropriate scale of atmospheric data for decisions related to sustainable tourism development-particularly within tourism markets that are highly dependent on outdoor resources.In doing so, we provide a methodology for creating a synoptic-scale map analysis and discuss these observed data outcomes within the context of sustainable tourism development.This serves to create an appropriate temporal dimension between tourists, their behaviors, and long-term tourism development planning.

Literature Review
Nepal is a country rich and diverse in natural and cultural resources, giving it great potential for utilizing tourism as a vehicle for development; however, the country lacks in social and economic development factors, hampering rapid growth (World Bank Group, 2022).Tourism amenities are a good source for generating foreign revenues.Out of the ten tallest mountains globally, eight lie in Nepal, making it a prime attraction for outdoor mountaineering and adventure tourism.Nepal is also diverse in terms of language and tradition; people who have their own traditions and cultures speak 120 languages around the country.Nepal is an historical hub for Hindu and Buddhist philosophies, strengthening Nepal's tourism appeal.
Every year thousands of tourists visit Nepal (Figure 1) to explore its natural beauty and heritage site by roads and air.Due to Nepal's open border with India, it is difficult to estimate an exact number of tourists who visit by roadway; however, India is the leading country from where Nepal receives its highest number of visitors.The trend of tourist arrivals was a net increase until 2012, but a result of political instability and the devastating earthquake in 2015, tourist arrival trends suffered for a brief period (NTB, 2016).During 'recovery' post earthquake, out of total tourist arrivals (excluding Indian citizens arriving through land transport) five countries generate more than half of those visiting Nepal: India (16%), China (14%), Sri Lanka (8%), the USA (7%), and United Kingdom (6%) (NTB, 2018).Seen today, tourist numbers in Nepal post-COVID are on the rise (UNWTO, 2023).
The tourism sector has a very significant role in promoting Nepal's overall development.Realizing this role, the government of Nepal, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, and Civil Aviation (MoCTCA) focused to promote the tourism sector in order to increase the contribution of tourism in its national economic development strategy.As a result, MoCTCA engaged in various activities to promote internal and international tourism with a stakeholders' association.These stakeholders can be those who directly or indirectly impact tourism planning and development such as national government, local governments, tourism enterprises, tourists, local people, employees and professionals, and any employee trade union (UNWTO, 2005).The ministry has also conscientiously developed new tourist destinations expanding Nepalese tourism in the international tourist market, ensuring tourists' safety and security, and creating a tourism-friendly policy environment.To achieve these desired targets of tourism development and information on tourism, such programs are essential to formulate programs to promote tourism development (NTB, 2016).Prior research has attempted to draw connections between weather, climate, and tourism preferences.Results generally coalesce around particular tourist preferences that are largely shaped with physiological levels of comfort.Goals to avoid wet conditions and thermal extremes are of great importance when predicting tourist participation-particularly in outdoor markets (Perkins, 2021, de Freitas et al., 2008;Lin et al., 2011;Matzarakis, 2004, Scott et al., 2012).Beniston (2003) makes note how conditions that are 'comfortable' and 'barrier-free' attract tourists.That said, the tourist preference is also contextual where activities that are uniquely dependent on the weather will require certain weather and climatic conditions for their success.Ski tourism provides a clear and obvious link where thermally 'comfortable' conditions would not be 'ideal' weather for tourism.(Pickering, 2010;Hamilton, 2007;Scott et al., 2020) Beyond the immediate tourist activity, the location is shaped by the general atmospheric characteristics-namely, the climate.Certain areas establish their tourism 'brand' based on the prevailing climate.(Gomez-Martin, 2005); Scott, Jones & Konopek, 2007) Paraphrased here: 'climate makes the destination' (Scott, 2012).In that same aspect, a changing climate not only threatens the local environmental condition of a location, but it disturbs the future tourism potential for development as a result of new vulnerabilities (Richardson & Loomis, 2005).In Nepal, for example, rapid warming in the Himalayan areas creates retreating glaciers, unpredictable mountaineering conditions, landslides and flooding-all dangerous conditions for tourists and local communities alike.Risk and economic development tend to be inversely related, therefore, climatic risk which presents hazards will have a tendency to dampen tourism development and future economic activity or investment (Nyaupane & Chhetri, 2009).
A result of a need to better understand the tourist-climate interface, previous research has attempted to connect synoptic-scale variables with tourism behaviour and outcomes.Established in Figure 2 from previous research (Perkins, 2018), results show the nature of how different synoptic weather types, such as the synoptic scale classification (SSC) (Sheridan, 2002), relate to tourist attendances and tourist propensities to engage in outdoor activity.What is seen in this image is that, in general, dry days of  The difficulties experienced in research for contextualizing tourism activity with weather are often confounded with variables such as holidays, social calendars, and special events (Perkins, 2018;Hewer, 2020).The result is a complicated network of factors rendering longer-term planning difficult.Climate change research regarding tourism has proven very useful for tourism planning development, but often lacks the specificity needed for those in economic development to make large-scale decisions (Lyles et al, 2018).Finding a 'scale' of weather that discernably interacts with tourist behavior but can be applied in a more general 'seasonal' scale analysis has been argued as a potential area for further research between the tourist-weather interface, while still giving context into consumer behaviors and climate change impacts (Perkins, 2018).
In doing so, Perkins and Phuyal (2023) expanded the scale of analysis to the GWTC-2 index (Lee, 2015) to assess longer term trends in Nepal regarding synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions and climate change indicators.This research (Perkins and Phuyal, 2023), while only part of a larger 'tourism index' established a utility of using the GWTC-2 within a tourism planning context.

Methodology
As mentioned, we hypothesize that a synoptic scale map analysis will yield valuable information for contextualizing both immediate tourism and longer-term needs.In doing so, our methods describe the variable used for calculation and the methods for creating the maps presented in our results section.
The synoptic atmospheric variable used in this research is the Global Weather Type Classification (GWTC) (Lee, 2015(Lee, , 2018(Lee, , 2020)).Data is provided in a gridded format where the GWTC-2 has been calculated using six near-surface weather variables (temperature, dew point, sea-level pressure, cloudiness, wind speed, and wind direction) from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; Mesinger et al., 2006), the GWTC-2 classifies every day since 1979 into one of 11 different weather types.Lee (2015) provides the following (Figure 3) to describe these weather types: Given the monsoonal climate of Nepal, the categories related to 'transitional weather types' were omitted from our analysis as they are less applicable in this geography.Additionally, Figure 4 shows the locations used for analyzing the weather patterns over Nepal, using the data set from 1979 to 2019.
For data visualization and interpolation, we use the ArcMap and ArcGIS Pro software packages.Map data is displayed using an Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method to display GWTC-2 gridded data within each of Nepal's districts.Daily data from 1979 to 2019 at a 0.5° by 0.5° resolution is used in this analysis.In the event, the data point falls outside the political boundary of Nepal (Figure X), it is still integrated into the IDW analysis.Regarding the projection coordinate system we use the UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) known as conformal cylindrical projection.Nepal lies in the UTM zone of 44 0 N -45 0 N, and all maps in this study are projected on UTM zone of 45 0 N.

Results and Discussion
The evaluation of maps will be discussion-based and exploratory in light of the context of the literature review.Results will explain observed trends and contextualize them based on the weather-type and its potential to enhance or disrupt tourism.This discussion is considering the long-term temporality of tourism sustainability, meaning that short-term outcomes, while seemingly preferable for tourist preferences, may, instead be disruptive as to the natural ecology and climate of Nepal and undermine its future tourism development.

Humid Conditions
The GWTC-2 scale showing 'humid' days in Nepal (Perkins & Phuyal, 2023) is tied to the amount of precipitation in each of these individual areas.What is seen in the progression of these decades is that the most recent data representing 2009 to 2018 (Figure 5) indicates an increase in humid days in the lower elevation regions of Nepal.This region, the Terai region, is known for somewhat oppressive hot and humid conditions.An increase in such conditions shows a potentially problematic climatic situation for outdoor tourism and recreation.Increase in humidity can also increase discomfort for tourists in an outdoor setting.Generally speaking, if this trend continues regarding this climatic condition it may become difficult for tourists to participate in such outdoor recreation in the coming decades.

Humid Warm Conditions
'Humid warm' conditions in Nepal (Perkins & Phuyal, 2023), represent days which are of above average humidity and above average temperature as a result, generally, of increased rainfall and a warming climate.Trends (Figure 6) are seen dramatically in the central region of Nepal, including the most popular areas of the Himalayas, Pokhara, and south into the Kathmandu Valley area.In terms of its contribution to tourism, a humid warm climate will generally improve casual tourism but will likely be detrimental, particularly within the Himalayan region, to more adventure-based tourism that requires technical ability such as mountaineering.

Warm Conditions
Increase in 'warm' days is generally observed throughout the area of Nepal (Perkins & Phuyal, 2023); however, in the 2009 to 2018 observation period, there appears to be a 'bullseye' around the Everestarea and the region where many tourists go to visit the Himalayan Mountains (Figure 7).While for the casual tourist this may seem like a benefit, being able to enjoy increased temperatures and a milder Alpine setting, in the long-term it creates environmental hazards and has the potential to significantly change the local ecosystem.This creates concerns regarding the tourism industry in Nepal, hampering development around this particular aspect.Additionally, those engaging in more technical based skills such as mountaineering will find an increase in warm days to be more problematic in terms of their tourism activity.Predictable ice melt and snow conditions are of utmost importance in terms of safety when engaging in mountaineering activities and warming conditions decreases environmental predictability in this realm (Jornet, 2020).

Dry Conditions
An increase in the number of 'dry' days (Perkins & Phuyal, 2023) is generally associated with increased outdoor tourism activity as a result of decreased precipitation.From the decadal changes we see regions within Nepal experiencing oscillating dryness (Figure 8).The most recent 2009 to 2018 period shows increased dryness in the northwest portions of Nepal.While there seems to be a positive connection with dryness and tourism from an economic development standpoint, the potential changes to local ecosystems will moderate this relationship.Increased dryness and its subsequent impacts on agriculture, particularly within areas of low socioeconomic status and increased levels of poverty can put local people in strain, depressing potential tourism development potential.

Humid Cool Conditions
The 'humid cool' weather type in Nepal (Figure 9) generally shows an increasing number of humid cool days in the flatter southerly Terai region.That said, one of the more distinctive characteristics, given the highland climate nature of the Himalayan area, is the decrease in number of humid cool days within the Himalayan region.While humid cool climates may often be perceived as negative for the casual hiker, serious Mountaineers, who are very much featured as part of the tourism basis in Nepal, often interact well with a humid cool climate.The decreasing number of humid cool days over time will likely have deleterious effects on tourism regarding mountaineering tourism within the Himalayan region.

Cool Conditions
The GWTC-2 condition 'cool' relates to the thermal condition and not the humidity condition (Figure 10).Over the temporal progression of the data, it is seen that the number of cool days, in general, has decreased over time-particularly within the Himalayan region.This may have negative effects overall on the nature of mountaineering and outdoor recreational tourism in Nepal's most famous tourism area.Fewer cool days will likely enhance natural hazards in such a way with increased glacier melt.This not only can create flooding conditions but also affect Alpine communities in terms of a reliable water supply.

Dry Cool Conditions
The 'dry cool' GWTC-2 weather type shows oscillating trends in the period of study (Figure 12).Understanding the potential 'realm of possibilities' for differing climatic conditions also helps local planners identify opportunities and hindrances they may encounter in longer-term tourism development.

Dry Warm Conditions
'Dry warm' days in the GWTC-2 weather type represent a lack of precipitation and above normal temperatures (Figure 13).We see, in general, a warming trend and a drying trend, particularly in the Himalayan areas.From the perspective of a causal tourist, this might represent a more pleasant climate for day hiking and low-impact activity.However, this observation must be moderated with the understanding that the changing climate will enhance glacial melt and provide increased natural hazards to the outdoor tourist.In addition, local communities that live in these tourist-rich areas will start to experience water loss as a result of increased glacier melt beyond the typical amount.This situation makes for a more difficult situation for those communities living in the Himalayan regions and therefore can create a social and economic strain within these communities, limiting their abilities to support themselves, and the tourist community.The number of dry warm days appears to have decreased in the warmer regions in the lowlands of the of Nepal thereby making this area potentially more attractive due to a lack of humidity.Despite this benefit, the climate in this area already being quite warm-and getting warmer-can also have negative impacts on tourists and their ability to comfortably engage in outdoor activities.

Conclusion
We hypothesized that map visualizations of synoptic scale climate information, when assessing long term tourism development of region, would help provide useful context into climate trends pertaining closely to the direct uses of tourists.As was established, Nepal serves as a very good representation to test this theory linking synoptic scale weather analysis with sustainable tourism development.This is because Nepal relies heavily on a tourist population that is climate dependent and oriented toward the outdoors.In addition, Nepal's socioeconomic status has established it as using tourism as a vehicle for development (Perkins, 2023;Birendra, 2020;Shakya, 2009;World Bank, Group, 2022, Nyaupane, 2009;Bhattacharjee et al., 2017).Because Nepal's unique geography does not lend itself to traditional pathways for development such as increased industrialization, tourism development allows Nepal to capitalize on its unique and fantastic geographical nature.Emphasizing sustainable tourism and emphasizing those aspects of cultural tourism and environmental/outdoor adventure tourism can help Nepal reach higher levels of social and economic development moving into the future (Shakya, 2009;World Bank, Group, 2022, Perkins, 2023).
Understanding how long-term implications of climatic change will interact with outdoor tourism is of great importance.Given the complexity of tourist opinions, motivations, and interpretations of weather events, focusing on synoptic elements of the atmosphere, we have argued, provides a better basis by which weather and climate information can be used directly in sustainable development policymaking.The scale where capital investment intersects tourism development regarding atmospheric information occupies a spatial and temporal concept beyond fleeting (non-catastrophic) weather events but also requires greater specificity than typically provided in most decadal climate change projections.We have argued that emphasizing synoptic scale weather and climate information in the context of tourism development could provide a 'Goldilocks' scalar niche for policy and decisionmaking.That said, it must be noted that these other scales of information are by no means unimportant.
The results of this research showcased how certain synoptic scale features are indeed climatically changing and those specific synoptic conditions can represent impacts on Nepal's tourism industry.For example, as initially displayed in Perkins & Phuyal (2023) and further explained and contextualized in Section 4.2 of this paper, the increasing number of 'humid warm' days (Figure 6), and its locational intersection with the peak tourist areas in the Himalayas represents a difficult situation for future tourism development in Nepal.Additionally, Section 4.7 provides an analysis of the 'seasonal' GWTC-2 variable (Figure 11) where a changing climate in Nepal is observed.The basis for this changing climate has the potential to reshape the entire tourism industry and can represent a hindrance to steady tourismbased economic growth in the region.
Looking at a weather condition often seen as the 'hedonistic goal' (Fagence, 1998) of tourism conditions, the GWTC-2 variable of 'dry warm' (Figure 13) serves as the proverbial 'double-edged' sword in Nepal's tourism development.An increase in the number of these 'dry warm' days can increase tourism in the short-term and open avenues for more casual markets of outdoor-oriented visitors.That said, planning only around short-term reactions of tourists to can be short sighted to the overall aspects of sustainable tourism development.In this case, mountaineering and adventure tourism, in addition to community longevity in alpine regions dependent on reliable seasonal glacial melts are in jeopardy.
From a policy standpoint, tourism officials must be adaptable.Understanding the appropriate mix of tourist activities within a changing climate will allow local entrepreneurs and business developers to adapt tourist services.For example, considering warmer conditions with less rain, while potentially problematic for mountaineering tourism and the overall ecology, local officials can still capitalize economically by emphasizing casual, low-impact tourism to help sustain local economies.Diversification of the tourism product will also be important because over-reliance on Himalayan tourism, (in light of the negative alpine effects of climate change), might be detrimental to the overall economic development of Nepal.Developing new areas in the Terai region nearer the border with India, can serve well in terms of orienting tourism toward positive sustainable economic development within a region.
As seen in this research, using synoptic scale weather-type data (Lee, 2015), creating a visual classification system, and contextualizing it in light of tourism in Nepal, can serve as a useful tool for understanding the nexus between whether climate and tourism development potential.The scalar aspects of synoptic scale weather serve to help planners and developers better understand the nature by which tourists will interact with their surrounding environment.A changing climate presents uncertainty environmentally, socially, and economically and thereby hinders future development as a result of increased risk.Perceiving the types of weather and climate elements that will change in the future gives better insight for planners and developers to implement sustainable tourism development plans moving forward.
most conducive to zoological park tourist activity-as indicated by the 'dry moderate' category.Those synoptic scales that are more in line with wet or cold conditions will depress attendance as is seen in both Atlanta and Indianapolis in this particular example.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Synoptic Scale Classification conditions and tourist attendances at zoological parks from Perkins (2018).

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Grid points used for calculation of GWTC-2 based map analysis.