Critical of climate change to risk of financial and productivity rice crop in Hamparan Perak District

Climatic conditions continue to change, can be seen from various parameters such as rainfall, rainy days, wind speed and solar irradiation. Theoretically, it has an impact on the productivity and welfare of rice farmers and also poses a risk to production and directly or indirectly impacts the finances of rice farmers. The aims of this study were to analyze whether there are differences in rice farming productivity under different climatic conditions. Then to analyze the financial risk on farming rice due the climate change. The research location is in Hamparan Perak District, Deli Serdang Regency, Sumatra Utara Province. We involved 50 farmers as samples and three experts and experienced farmers in risk analysis. Analysis of productivity differences was carried out using the paired sample t-test method with the SPSS 26 tool. While risk analysis is carried out using failure mode effect analysis with Risk Priority Number calculation techniques. The results found that there were significant differences in rice farming productivity during planting periods with different climates. There are 22 financial risks that have the potential to occur in the rice farming process, from land preparation to harvesting stage. The highest level of risk is at the maintenance stage.


Introduction
In 2021, the statistics field of Deli Serdang Regency stated that the availability of rice was a surplus of around 15.88% compared to the level of domestic consumption.The total sub-districts in this region are 22 sub-districts and all of them have rice production potential.However, not all of them experience a surplus of rice, this can be due to rice production from total dry milled grain is smaller than the level of rice consumption needs of each region.The district with the highest grain production is Hamparan Perak District.This area is also the largest area compared to other sub-districts, which is 9.21% of the area of Deli Serdang Regency.We quote this information from the official document of Deli Serdang Regency in the 2022 Figures published by the Central Bureau of Statistics of Deli Serdang Regency, can be seen in the Figure 1.
In addition to the difference in the area of each sub-district, the height of each area is also different.Hamparan Perak District as the largest area and large rice production potential, is located at 7 masl and is the second lowest above sea level (masl) after Pantai Labu District (3 masl) [1].This condition is certainly important to pay attention to in an effort to maintain food security and its sustainability, especially in food commodity base producers.The weather dynamics are so fluctuating, a number of studies state that climate change has an impact to social, economy and the welfare of farmer [2,3].
As the main food commodity, rice is a crop group that is vulnerable or sensitive to climate change [3][4][5].Through field inspections and direct interviews with rice farmers in Hamparan Perak sub-district, farmers argue that climate change is increasingly uncertain, although predictions of rainy and dry months can sometimes be predicted based on their experience.However, the impact it causes is very significant on the rice farming they do, such as strong winds, long-duration rains, droughts and floods, even floods of shipments originating from sub-districts or neighboring districts that are higher geographically.
Through our preliminary analysis of climate change data and information in Deli Serdang Regency, it is known that rainfall, rainy days and wind speed in this region fluctuate from month to month every year.Rainfall enters and during the second half of each year, higher than rainfall at the beginning of the year (2020-2022).However, through Figure 1, it can be seen that rainfall at the end of 2022 is higher than in the last two years.Similarly, a rainy day can be seen in Figure 2.  Farmers in the study area generally implemented two growing seasons known as MT 1 and MT 2. Based on interviews with farmers we made respondents in this study, MT 1 is usually carried out from January to February and MT 2 in June to July.However, there are special areas with rainfed rice fields that carry out MT 1 in the middle of the year and MT 2 at the end of the year.This is because, at the beginning of the year, the availability of water is very limited in rice fields due to various factors.Determination of the growing season (MT) can be a solution to climate change adaptation so that production is expected to remain stable [4,5].climate since the beginning of the planting season has an impact on rice plants [6].
The difference in planting period that is carried out along with regional climate change, this can have an impact on the productivity and welfare of rice farmers.For this reason, this study is intended to analyze whether there are differences in the productivity of MT 1 and MT 2. Then analyze the climate change risk related to the financial aspects of the respondents, which is an element related to income obtained from rice harvest.

Location and respondent selection method
The location of this research was conducted in Hamparan Perak District, Deli Serdang Regency, North Sumatra Province.This location is selected purposively with criteria determined by researchers according to research needs, such as: 1. Areas that are among the largest rice producers 2. Areas vulnerable to climate change 3. Can be accessed using land transportation in conducting identification in the field.
Based on these criteria, we analyzed the secondary data we obtained from the website of the BPS-Statistics of North Sumatra Province and Deli Serdang Regency.The results found that Hamparan Perak District met the specified criteria, as also described in the previous section.
The respondents of this study are rice farmers in the research area with a total of 50 respondents, so that it is feasible to carry out statistical analysis as generally applicable provisions, determined using snowball sampling.We also involve experts in the field of rice farming such as from the Deli Serdang Regency Agriculture Office and facilitators of rice farmers and experienced farmers to conduct climate change risk analysis on the financial aspects of rice farmers.

Data and data collection methods
Research data in the form of primary data obtained during surveys in the field, the data was collected using questionnaires that we compiled.The secondary data is obtained from documentation techniques, namely collecting the information needed from official documents or publications.

Data analysis methods
The discussion of this study analyzes whether there is a significant difference between the productivity of MT 1 and MT 2 rice farming.The paired sample t-test method will be used to answer this case.Meanwhile, the analysis of the financial risks faced by farmers as critical to climate change is analyzed using the Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) method, namely the calculation of the Risk Priority Number (RPN) [7].The RPN formulation (1) is: Decision making criteria can be carried out in this section based on the criteria in Table 1.

Characteristics of respondents
This review only describes the characteristics of farmers who were respondents to this study.We didn't explain anything else.This analysis is carried out using a descriptive method, to facilitate interpretation, a tool in the form of SPSS 26 is used.The results of the descriptive analysis are shown in Table 2. Based on the Table 2, it is known that the respondents consisted of 37 male farmers and 13 female farmers.Based on information during the survey, majority of respondents have more than 25 years of experience in rice farming, during which time the respondents have experienced various things as a result of climate change that occurs.

Productivity difference analysis
In this section, an analysis of the difference in rice farming productivity is carried out on MT1 and MT2.The aim is to assess whether there are significant differences in productivity in different climatic conditions.This test was also carried out using the SPSS 26 tool through the paired sample t-test technique.The output of the data analysis is informed by Table 3 and Table 4.The results of the analysis showed that the average productivity of rice farming managed by respondents was 5,766.5 tons/hectare for MT 1 and 5,621.8tons/hectare for MT 2. If it is assumed that the selling price of harvested dry grain in the two MTs is fixed, which is Rp.4,500 per kilogram.So the estimated revenue of MT 1 is Rp.25,949,250 per hectare and MT 2 is Rp.25,298,100 per hectare.The Sig. (2-tailed) parameter is 0.000 with a 95% confidence interval (α= 5%).The value of Sig.(2-tailed) 0.000 < 0.05, so it can be concluded that statistically, there is a significant difference in the productivity of rice farming during climate change.
The difference in productivity is related to the level of revenue of rice farming.So that directly or indirectly, climate change has an impact on the revenue of rice farming.A slight disruption to production has an impact on supply and selling prices [8].It was later reaffirmed that the climate poses a risk to rice production [5,9].Climate change adaptation by regulating waterways during rainfall and drought can control the negative impacts of climate change [10].

Financial risk analysis
The stages in conducting a risk analysis include risk identification and sources of risk.Then conduct risk measurements by experts and experienced farmers related to this study.The measurement results are then evaluated to obtain recommendations for risk treatment.Before identifying risks, first detailed the process carried out by farmers in conducting rice farming.The process details we include are the result of discussions with experts and refer to previous research [7,11].There are six processes that involve farmers directly, i.e.: land preparation, seeding, transplanting, maintenance of the vegetative phase, maintenance of the generative phase and harvesting.

Financial risk identification.
The results of identifying financial risks that are climate critical at each stage are as in Table 5.

Table 2 .
Gender distribution of respondents.

Table 5 .
The results of identifying financial risks that are climate critical at each stage.Risk measurement and risk evaluation.Risk measurement is carried out with the scale guidance presented in the Table 6, 7, and 8.

Table 6 .
Scale of severity.

Table 7 .
Scale of occurrence.

Table 8 .
Scale of detection.By using the scale described in Table6, 7, and 8, the scale value of each risk is determined.So that the value of Risk Priority Number (RPN) is obtained which is a multiplication of S x O x D in Table9.

Table 9 .
Risk priority number.