The sustainability of production and the US Dollar exchange rate influence Indonesian Cocoa and Pepper exports and their competitiveness

This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021, as well as their competitiveness with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021. The data analysis methods used were Multiple Linear Regression, RAC, and EPD. The research results indicate that production sustainability has a significant effect on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period, while the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a significant effect on cocoa exports but an insignificant effect on pepper exports. The competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa for the 2017-2021 period, using the RCA method, is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam. However, with the EPD method, exports to Singapore and Vietnam are in the Raising Star position, to Thailand and Japan in the Falling Star position, and to Malaysia in the Lost Opportunity position. With the RCA method for the 2017-2021 period, Indonesia’s pepper competitiveness is weak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, but with the EPD method, it is Raising Star in Malaysia and Vietnam, Falling Star in Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity in Singapore.


Introduction
Globally, cocoa is produced by most lower-middle-income countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, all of which are tropical or semi-tropical regions.Indonesia is the third-largest cocoa producer in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana.Cocoa and pepper are two commodities that are very important for the Indonesian agricultural plantation sub-sector.Indonesia was once the world's main exporter of pepper, but since 2001 its position has been replaced by Vietnam.In 2006, Indonesia fell to third place in the world, replaced by Brazil.However, in 2006 Indonesia's exports surpassed Brazil, and it returned to second place.The sustainability of these two commodities needs to be a concern so that cocoa and pepper can contribute to the value of Indonesian exports, increasing both in terms of quality and quantity.This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US Dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period as well as their competitiveness to Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021.

Methods of collecting data
The data used are time-series data for the period 2002-2021 obtained online from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), UN Comtrade, ICCO, and Bank Indonesia.

Data analysis method
Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the following formula: Information: Y = Cocoa exports (tons/year),Pepper exports (kg/year) b1, b2 = Regression coefficients, X1 = Cocoa, Pepper production, X2 = American dollar exchange rate The coefficient of determination is the magnitude of the influence of the independent variable on the contribution of the dependent variable.The formula for getting the coefficient is as follows: (2)

F test (simultaneous test).
To find out whether the independent variables used in the model simultaneously have a significant effect or not.To be able to calculate F count, use the following formula: k (1-r2) (3)

T test (partial test).
To find out whether the independent variables used in the model partially have a significant effect or not.To be able to calculate t count, use the following formula:

RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage).
Comparative advantage and competitive advantage can be used to calculate a nation's level of competitiveness in a certain good or service.One way to analyze comparative advantage is through the analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA).Balassa has been developing RCA since 1965.RCA is a highly accessible analytical tool with a broad range of applications.A country has a comparative advantage over the reference country if its RCA is greater than one.On the other hand, if RCA is less than one, it indicates a revealed comparative disadvantage [1].The RCA Formula: (5)

EPD (Export Product Dynamics
).The Export Product Dynamics (EPD) approach, one can calculate a commodity's competitive advantage.Every producing nation should consider its competitiveness and export market position when addressing issues related to international trade [2].The combination of export market position and competitiveness is composed of four categories: Retreat, Lost Opportunities, Falling Stars, and Rising Stars.EPD is calculated using the following formula: Therefore, paying attention to Indonesian cocoa production is crucial to ensure the sustainability of Indonesian cocoa exports.The strategy to increase the sustainability of cocoa production must continue to focus on creating a supportive environment.To increase the sustainability of Indonesian cocoa production, the strategy should focus on using superior cocoa seeds,switching to organic farming, and implementing various sustainable agricultural practices to increase productivity.A healthy and environmentally friendly lifestyle is becoming a new trend.The global institutionalization of agricultural goods requires them to have high nutritional content (nutritional characteristics), be safe for consumption (food safety attributes), and be ecologically benign (eco-labeling qualities).Although gradually, Indonesia has a great deal of potential to compete in the global market.

US Dollar rate exchange (X2)
Based on the test results, it can be seen that the US dollar exchange rate variable has a t-count value of -2.412, which shows that the t-count is greater than the t-table with a value of -3.617 < 1.75305.The significance level in the US dollar exchange rate table has a significance level of 0.027 <0.05.It can be concluded that the exchange rate has a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports during the 2002-2021 period.
Exchange rate stability must be taken into account in addition to production sustainability, as the exchange rate has a s i g ni f i can t impact.Because local cocoa prices are more expensive than those of cocoa sold overseas, the price of Indonesian cocoa will increase when the Rupiah appreciates against the US dollar.This will result in a decrease in the amount of cocoa exported from Indonesia.In contrast, a depreciation of the exchange rate results in a decrease in the value of the domestic currency and an increase in the value of the foreign currency.This depreciation increases the price of the exchange rate, which boosts exports while reducing imports.The cost of imported goods increases.Therefore, foreign currency exchange rates have a direct impact on export volume..787R = 0.546., R-Square = 0.299., Adjust R-Square = 0.216., F -Count = 3.620., Sig F = 0.049

Coefficient of determination (R2).
Coefficient of determination analysis aims to find out how significant the relationship between the independent and dependent variables is.The coefficient of determination (R Square) value for this research is 0.299.This means that production (X1), the US dollar exchange rate (X2) is 29.9%.The remaining 70.10% is explained by other variables not included in the estimation model.

Simultaneous significance test (F test).
Based on testing, the F-count number is 3.620 and Sig. of 0.049.If the test is carried out at a = 5%, df1 = 5, and df2 = 14, then the F-table is 2.96.The F-count value (3.620) is greater than the F-table (2.96), and the Sig value is 0.049 < 0.05, so it can be concluded that simultaneously pepper production (X1), the US dollar exchange rate (X2) have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period.

Significance test (t-test) Production (X1)
Based on the test results, it can be seen that the production variable has a calculated t-value of 2.674, which is greater than the t-table, namely 2.674 > 1.7613.The significance level in the production table has a significance level of 0.016 <0.05.Pepper production has a significant influence on Indonesian pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period.The production, productivity, and quality of Indonesian pepper still need to be improved to increase competitiveness in export markets.Therefore, strategies and policies are needed to develop the pepper industry in Indonesia, from upstream to downstream improve export performance and competitiveness in the global market.
Pepper production can be increased in two ways: by expanding the land area or improving productivity.Enhancing soil nutrients can be used to enhance soil nutrients.Additionally, adopting GAP-based cultivation, especially using superior seeds (BUN500/Seed Logistics program), fertilizing, and spraying according to the recommended type and dose, and strengthening farmers.and integrated supporting institutions from upstream to downstream.Apart from that, the Indonesian government has created a law (Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 39 of 2014, articles 32, 56, 67, 68, 69, and 70) that mandates environmentally friendly management of plantation crops and preservation of environmental functions.All parties involved in the plantation sector who implement this regulation should ensure environmental sustainability and sustainability are achieved.Therefore, it is hoped that all relevant parties can achieve this goal.Strategies to increase pepper productivity include developing superior seed varieties, providing training in better pepper cultivation techniques for farmers starting from planting, using climbing poles, fertilizing, pest control and harvesting, and strengthening pepper farming institutions.With this strategy, it is hoped that Indonesia can increase its national pepper productivity.

US dollar rate exchange (X2)
Based on the test results of this research, it can be seen that the US dollar exchange rate variable has a calculated t-value of 2.74, which indicates that t calculated > t table, namely 2.74 > 1.76131.The significance level in the US dollar exchange rate table has a significance level of 0.787, which 0.05.Therefore, it can be concluded that the US dollar exchange rate has no significant effect on Indonesian pepper exports for the 2002-2021.

RCA and EPD for cacao and pepper competitiveness
Competitiveness is one of the criteria that determines a country's success in international trade.Competitiveness is the ability of a commodity to enter foreign markets and survive in those markets.Table 3. RCA and EPD Estimation Results for Indonesian Cocoa Commodities.The findings in this research can be seen in tables 3 and 4 below: Using the RCA method, it is known that the competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa exports for the 2017-2021 period is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam.Meanwhile, while using the EPD Raising Star method for Singapore and Vietnam, Falling Star for Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity for Malaysia.

Table 1 .
Multiple linear regression test.The results of the multiple linear regression test can be seen below.The multiple linear regression equation is as follows: Multiple linear regression analysis (cocoa).The test results show that the production variable has a t-value of 2,520.520,indicating a significant t-count.>t-table 2.520 > 1.75305.The significance level in the production table has a significance level of 0.022 <0.05.It can be concluded that cocoa production has a significant influence on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports for the 2002-2021 period.
R = 0.706., R-Square = 0.499., Adjusted R-Square = 0.440 F-Count = 8.471., Sig F = 0.0313.1.2.Coefficient of determination (R 2 ).A special study of the coefficient of determination is performed to demonstrate the strength of the relationship between the independent variables.In this investigation, the coefficient of determination (R-Square) was 0.499.This indicates that the US dollar (X2) and p r o d u c t i o n (X1) have a 49.90% impact on exports.Other factors unrelated to production and the US dollar exchange rate account for the remaining 50.10%3.1.3.Simultaneous significance test (F-test).The Sig value is 0 and the F-value is 8.471.The F-table is 3.06 if the test is run at = 5%, df1=4, and df2=15.Since the Sig value is 0.003 < 0.05 and the calculated F-value (8.471) is greater than the F-table value (3.06), it can be said that the

Table 2 .
3.2.1.Multiple linear regression test.The results of the multiple linear regression test can be seen from the multiple linear regression equation as follows: Multiple linier regression analysis (pepper).

Table 3 .
RCA and EPD estimation results for indonesian cocoa commodities.