Estimation of loss of rice farmers due to flood at Krueng Kluet Watershed (with the eclac method approach)

Deforestation in protected areas has caused flooding which has an impact on the rice farming sector at Krueng Kluet Aceh watershed. The purpose of this study is to analyze the area and area of rice fields affected by the Krueng Kluet watershed flood and calculate the estimated economic value of rice farmers’ losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed using the ECLAC method. The results obtained in this study there are four classifications of flooding in lowland rice farming land, namely, very high, high, medium and low prone, with a total of 1.391 ha of lowland rice land affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed. The estimated value of the total loss from the impact of floods that hit lowland rice farming in the Krueng Kluet watershed area is 9,052,640,500 IDR. The implication of this research is the forest destruction consequence in the upstream of the Krueng Kluet watershed, the flood intensity is increasing from year to year greatly impacted the paddy rice agricultural sector. As a result of flooding many farmers suffered losses, mainly because the death of planted rice seeds, crop failures and loss of paddy rice production which was swept away by the flood currents.


Introduction
The Climate change, the rate of deforestation and the decline in environmental carrying capacity at Indonesia have led to natural disasters such as floods.Floods have damaged a lot of agricultural land, especially lowland rice farming, which has resulted in decreased production and farmer's Income.Every year there are 39,000 hectares of rice fields affected by flooding in Indonesia [1].The Krueng Kluet Watershed is the largest watershed in Aceh Selatan District, Aceh Province, where the Krueng Kluet watershed area reaches 112,869.66hectares consisting of the Gunung Leuser National Park area and the Protected Forest area [2].Forest encroachment and illegal logging continue to occur every year, it was recorded that in the last three years there were 424.15 hectares of forest cover lost due to forest encroachment activities and human activities in it [3].Natural disasters occur due to damage to the upstream watershed resulting in floods and landslides [4].The spatial analysis data at the Lawe Pakam Sub-watershed shows the existence of critical land.Critical land occurs due to reduced forest cover which has a significant impact on environmental damage in the future, such as landslides and floods [5].The conservation approach at the Tangkahan area is able to maintain natural resources for the future.Conservation based management in the upstream watershed is able to minimize the occurrence of flooding and environmental damage [6].Over the last 10 years, there has been a lot of loss of forest cover in Deli Serdang District.Areas that experienced a significant decrease in land cover include forest areas caused by an increase in population and community accessibility, which greatly impacts the threat of natural disasters such as flooding in the future [7].The combination of Hevea brasiliensis and Aquilaria malaccensis plants can be of high conservation value as water catchment areas in conservation areas and have economic value for the community [8].
The impact of the Krueng Kluet flood on the under normal conditions, lowland rice production in 21 villages in Kluet Utara Sub-District is 9,827 tons with a productivity of 6.03 tons/ha.When there was a flood in the paddy fields in Kluet Utara Sub-District, total production only reached 2,827 tons with a productivity of 1.73 tons/ha.The decline in production due to this flood is very detrimental to farmers in very large numbers [9].Farmers in the Malaysian state of Klantan have suffered losses on their agricultural land due to floods in 2014 amounting to RM. 4,001 where the flood victims are mostly lowincome farmers [10].[11] Through flood mapping on lowland rice fields In the lowlands of Pekalongan District, Central Java, it is known that the area of rice fields that are inundated by floods will calculate the estimated value of the economic loss.The modeling uses two scenarios, in the 91 cm inundation scenario on lowland rice, the loss is estimated at 19.33 billion IDR/year with an area of 945.29 ha.The inundation scenario of 135 cm increased to 24.10 billion IDR/year which inundated the rice fields of 1,339.31ha.All farmers at Anambara state were used as respondents to identify the extent of losses due to the impact of flooding on rice fields, Nigeria stated that 76.67% of lowland rice farmers stated that the loss of lowland rice production due to flooding reached 80%, 18.33 % of lowland rice farmers stated that they lost 70% of their production and 5% of rice farmers who did not lose their production due to flooding [12].The duration of flooding in the Upper Citarum watershed greatly affects the magnitude of agricultural losses, especially rice cultivation.In the 5-year return period flood, agricultural losses ranged from 2-4 million IDR/ha, while in the 25-year return period, the losses increased to 3-6.5 million IDR/ha.As a comparison, the results of the questionnaire show that the cost of planting rice for a single crop in the Upper Citarum area is 5.7-6.5 million IDR/ha.This means that in the 25-year flood, farmers will not benefit because they cannot harvest.[13] The estimated losses due to flooding in Landak district, West Kalimantan province were the worst in the infrastructure and agricultural land sectors where the value of losses was increasing, namely in 1973 worth $73,730,065.50, in 1989 $180,506,545.06, in 1994 $261,837,985.42, in 2000 $261,895,108.22,in 2010 $1,147,316,605.84,and 2020 $1,971,890,833.81.
The Krueng Kluet watershed is one of the largest watersheds in the province of Aceh, rampant illegal logging activities in protected areas result in frequent flooding in the rainy season.The impact of the flood not only damaged the infrastructure of the people living in the Krueng Kluet watershed area but also damaged paddy fields, which resulted in farmers experiencing losses.From the above background, this study aims to analyze the flood-prone lowland rice area and the flood-affected area of lowland rice in the Krueng Kluet watershed, as well as calculate the estimated value of rice farmers' losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed using the ECLAC method approach.

Methods
The data used in this study include primary data and secondary data.The primary data of this study were obtained from direct interviews with 26 Heads of Farmer Groups from each village in three sub-districts whose lowland rice fields were affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed and 3 heads of BPP from three sub-districts, namely, Kluet Utara, Kluet Selatan and Kluet Timur sub-districts.While secondary data is obtained from agencies/institutions related to the research theme.
In this study, two analytical tools were used, is: • To analyze flood-prone rice paddy area and the flood-affected area using the map overlay method.
• To calculate the estimated value of rice farmers' losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed area using the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) method.The ECLAC method is also a DaLA (damage and loss Assessment) method, where this method was chosen as the basis for calculating economic losses due to floods developed by the United Nations for Latin America and the Caribbean [14].The ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) method is also used to calculate the valuation value of economic losses due to the impact of floods that occurred in Asia [15].The equations used in the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) method are:  = (    () × (  )  ( ) (1)

Results and discussion
The results of the analysis of flood-prone rice fields and the affected area using an overley map, can be seen in the figure 1.From Figure 1, it can be seen that the three sub-districts included in the Krueng Kluet watershed area have six villages with a level of vulnerability to flooding in lowland rice fields with very high status, eight villages with high status, ten villages with medium status and one village with low vulnerability status.The area of paddy fields affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed along with the status of the level of flood vulnerability can be seen in the table 1.From the table above, it can be seen that, there are 26 villages from three sub-districts of lowland rice land in the Krueng Kluet watershed area that were affected by flooding, where the total area of rice fields affected by the flood was 1,391 Ha.The villages of Gunung Pudung, Ruak, Alur Mas, Jambo Manyang and Lawe Cimanok, are areas of rice paddy fields that were worst hit by floods originating from the Krueng Kluet watershed.The high level of flood vulnerability in paddy fields in this area is caused by several factors, namely, because the location of the rice fields is in the upstream of the Kluet Kluet watershed, the contours of the rice fields are slightly sloping, the number of tributaries on the outskirts of the rice fields overflows when it rains.which is quite high, and the lack of drainage in paddy fields which cannot accommodate the high-water discharge during the rainy season.Unlike the case with lowland rice fields in Paya Dapur village, where the land surface in lowland rice fields is quite low so that the flood currents from Lawe Buluh Didi village, Lawe Sawah village and Lawe Cimanok village lead to rice fields in Paya Dapur village.The results of the analysis show that the level of flood vulnerability with a very high status has an impact of above 80% of the area of rice fields damaged by floods.The level of flood vulnerability with high status has an impact of damage to 70-75% of the area of rice fields damaged by floods.The level of flood susceptibility with medium status has an impact of damage of 45-60% of the area of paddy fields damaged by flooding and the level of flood vulnerability with low status of vulnerability has a smaller impact of damage than 15% of the area of rice paddy damaged by floods.The same incident also occurred in Anambara in the northern part of Negeria which stated that, the impact of a fairly high flood on lowland rice farms reduced production yields above 80% with the number of farmers affected above 76.67% while lowland rice farming areas with moderate flood impacts have lost 70% of production [12].
To find out the estimated value of farmer losses due to flooding, we must first know the value of the replacement unit value as shown in the table 2.

Sector Substitute Unit (IDR/Ha)
Rice fields affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed 9,290,000 IDR/Ha From the table above, it can be seen that, the replacement unit in the paddy field agriculture sector affected by the flooding of the Krueng Kluet watershed is 9,290,000 IDR/Ha.value of the area of lowland rice affected by flooding, the value of the replacement unit and the value of the damage factor, then we will enter this value into the ECLAC model equation to get the estimated value of the loss of lowland rice farmers due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed as shown in the table 3a dan 3b: From the table above, it can be explained that the total loss of lowland rice due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed reached 9,052,604,500 billion IDR.The highest sub-district suffered losses due to flooding in lowland rice fields, namely Kluet Utara sub-district with losses reaching 6,201,539,500 billion IDR, Kluet Timur sub-district 2,810,225,000 billion IDR and Kluet Selatan sub-district of 40,876,000 million IDR. [16] Calculation of losses due to flash floods that occurred in Panti sub-district, Jember district, East Java using the ECLAC model approach, it was found that the agricultural sector suffered a loss of 3,700,000,000 billion IDR.The estimation of the calculation of losses due to flooding with the ECLAC model approach in the case of floods that occurred in Bandung district, it was found that the losses due to floods in the agricultural sector reached 53,839,853,000 billion IDR [15].

Conclusion
From the above discussion, it can be concluded that the status of the flood susceptibility level of lowland rice farming in the Krueng Kluet watershed area is classified into four classifications, namely, very high, high, medium and low prone, where the total of all lowland rice fields affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed is 1,391.Ha contained in three sub-districts.The estimated value of the total loss received by lowland rice farmers during the flood in the Krueng Kluet watershed reached a loss of 9,052,640,500 billion IDR, where Kluet Utara sub-district is the sub-district that suffers the most losses due to flooding in lowland rice fields, which is 6,201,539,500 IDR, followed by Kluet Timur sub-district for 2,810,225,000 billion IDR and Kluet Selatan sub-district of 40,876,000 million IDR.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Map of flood-prone rice paddy fields in the Krueng Kluet Aceh watershed.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Graph of the function of lowland rice losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed.Factors of damage to rice fields based on the function of losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed were obtained directly from primary data and presented in graphical form.After knowing the

Table 1 .
Data on the area of paddy fields affected by flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed area.

Table 3b .
Table of losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed on paddy rice fields using the ECLAC method approach.Table of losses due to flooding in the Krueng Kluet watershed on paddy rice fields using the ECLAC method approach.