Fluctuations and trends in the prices of red chilies and cayenne peppers in the traditional markets of Makassar City

Chili is a strategic food commodity which is the main seasoning for food in Indonesia. The chili commodity has high price fluctuations because production and supply are highly dependent on the risk of climate change. This research aims to analyse fluctuations, trends and comparisons of prices for large red chilies, curly red chilies and red cayenne peppers in the Makassar City Traditional Market. The data type is monthly time series secondary data for January 2020 to May 2023. Data analysis is coefficient variation, trend linear analysis, and t test. The results of this research show that the prices of large red chilies and curly red chilies have moderate fluctuations, while the prices of red cayenne peppers have high fluctuations. The price trend for large red chilies increased by IDR 144.24 per kilogram, curly red chilies IDR 200.99 per kilogram, and cayenne pepper IDR 362.42 per kilogram per month. The price of cayenne pepper has proven to be significantly higher than the price of large red chilies and the price of curly red chilies. The prices of red chilies and cayenne peppers at Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market do not have a significant difference.


Introduction
Chili plants are plants whose productivity is very dependent on the risk of climate change, so the supply of chilies fluctuates depending on the season.Chili is the most widely cultivated vegetable horticultural crop in Indonesia.Apart from being widely cultivated, chilies are also an important commodity for the economy.The increase in chili prices also contributed to the large food inflation that occurred in Indonesia [1].Red chilies are one of several strategic commodities in Indonesia.However, red chilies are also one of the commodities that contribute to inflation due to seasonal price fluctuations where the potential for price increases occurs during the rainy season, the month of Ramadan, before the New Year or other major and religious holidays [2].Curly red chilies are one of various types of horticultural commodities that have high demand and have a big influence on the dynamics of the national economy, so they are included in the ranks of commodities that contribute to the biggest inflation that occurs every year [3].
Chili is one of the horticultural commodities that has an important contribution and economic value in Indonesia.Chili is also one type of leading national horticultural commodity [4].Chili is a horticultural commodity that has high demand in domestic and foreign markets.One type of chili variety is cayenne pepper (Capsicum frutescens L).In general, Indonesian people use cayenne pepper as a raw ingredient for cooking spices.However, cayenne pepper is also used for industrial and pharmaceutical 1302 (2024) 012124 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1302/1/012124 2 needs so that the presence of cayenne pepper can be indicated to provide business prospects and market opportunities in increasing economic growth in the agricultural sector [5].
Chili is a key national vegetable commodity with a significant economic value.The need for red cayenne pepper grows year after year, in tandem with population growth and the expansion of companies that require raw materials for red cayenne pepper.Apart from that, chilies cannot be substituted by other commodities, so if there is an imbalance between production and market uptake there will definitely be price fluctuations [6].The fluctuating price of cayenne pepper causes cayenne pepper farmers to fear losses because they cannot predict prices [7].
In line with the rate of population growth, it can be seen that the need and consumption of shallots and cayenne peppers in society continues to increase all the time.The 2002-2018 period shows that consumption of cayenne pepper fluctuates.Consumption of cayenne pepper in 2002 was 1,126 kilograms per capita.In 2018 there was an increase of 1,835 kilograms per capita, an increase of 7.53%.For the 2019-2021 period, it is predicted that consumption of cayenne pepper will continue to increase until it reaches 1,850 kilograms per capita or an increase of 0.78 percent [8].
Traditional markets have traditionally played a vital role in developing and propelling people's economic prosperity.Traditional markets serve a vital function that is not only an outlet for the products of the surrounding (local) community but also a highly valuable employment option for the community.Overall, the marketing role of red chili commodities contributes significantly to improved farming performance, as with horticultural commodities in general, considering the unique characteristics of horticultural commodities in general, such as being perishable, voluminous, production is seasonal, most of them are needed fresh, and consumption occurs throughout the year [9].
Fluctuations in food commodity prices occur rapidly.The imbalance between demand and supply of food requires a food price stabilization policy.There are three benefits from the food price stabilization policy, namely: (1) protecting farmers as producers from price declines so that farmers can act more efficiently; (2) protect middle to lower class consumers with low incomes (poor consumers) from the volatility of price increases, so that this policy can become a form of social safety net, and (3) create more stable macroeconomic conditions thereby encouraging investment and economic growth [10].
Makassar City is the capital of South Sulawesi Province which is the largest commercial center, including for horticultural commodities.Chili commodities marketed at the Makassar City Traditional Market mostly include large red chilies, curly red chilies and red bird's eye chilies.In 2021, the harvest area for large red chili plants in South Sulawesi will reach 2,141 hectares with production of 15,931 tons and productivity of 7.44 tons per hectare.Meanwhile, the harvest area for curly chili plants only reached 323 hectares with a production of 1,890 tons and a productivity of 5.86 tons per hectare.In the same year, the harvest area for cayenne pepper plants in South Sulawesi reached 4,844 hectares with production of 26,441 tonnes and productivity of 5.46 tonnes per hectare [11].
During the period from 2020 to 2022 at the Makassar City Traditional Market, the average price of large red chilies reached IDR 24,510.00 per kilogram, curly red chilies IDR 28,242.00 per kilogram, and the price of red cayenne peppers IDR 34,295.00 per kilogram.This research aims to analyse fluctuations, trends and comparisons of prices for large red chilies, curly red chilies and red cayenne peppers in the Makassar City Traditional Market.

Research Methods
The basic method in this research is quantitative descriptive.Quantitative descriptive methods are used to describe systematically, factually and accurately the phenomena that occur, with data in the form of numbers generated from the actual situation.This research covers the Makassar City area, especially traditional markets, namely Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market.The data type uses monthly time series secondary data for the period between January 2020 to May 2023.The main data source is obtained from PIHPS (Strategic Food Price Information Centre).
Data analysis in this study used coefficient variation (CV) analysis, trend analysis, and t test.To analyse fluctuations and trends in prices of large red chilies and cayenne peppers, the coefficient variation formula and linear trend analysis are used.Meanwhile, to compare the prices of large red chilies with curly red chilies, the prices of large red chilies with red bird's eye chilies, and the prices of curly red chilies with red bird's eye chilies, the t test was used.To analyze price fluctuations or stability (large red chilies, curly red chilies, red cayenne peppers) Coeffient Variation analysis is used as follows: Description: CV = coefficient of variation σ = standard deviation X = average price To analyze the price trend of large red chili, curly red chili, and red cayenne pepper, the linear trend equation is used as follows: Y = price (large red chili, curly red chili, red cayenne pepper) X = time period (monthly) a = intercept b = coefficient Comparative analysis is a quantitative analysis technique used to test hypotheses regarding the presence or absence of differences between the variables studied.If there is a significant difference or coincidence alone it can be tested using the t test, which is written in the following formula.
Description: X1 = average price (large red chili, curly red chili) X2 = average price of red cayenne pepper s = combined average variation n1 = price sample quantity (large red chilies, curly red chilies) n2 = sample number of prices for red cayenne pepper Description: Test criteria : H0 : statistical size = specific value.
If t-stat ≤ t-table, then H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected.H1 : Statistical size ≠ specific values.
If t-stat > t-table, then H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted.

Red Chili Price Fluctuations.
Chili is a strategic commodity in Indonesia.However, this commodity is a commodity that contributes to inflation due to its seasonal price fluctuations, even though chili price fluctuations will affect the effectiveness of price stabilization policies.Therefore, information is needed regarding chili price volatility to support the chili price stabilization policy in Indonesia [12].Cayenne pepper production has the lowest risk when compared to curly chili and huge red chili production.However, as compared to large red chili, the price risk of cayenne pepper is the highest [13].Fluctuations in the price of large red chilies and curly red chilies at the Pabaeng-baeng Traditional Market in Makassar City are presented in Figure 1.
The price of large red chilies at the Pabaeng-baeng Market in Makassar City during the period January 2020 to May 2023 averaged IDR 25,259.76/kg,with the lowest price reaching IDR 9,000.00occurring in June 2020 and the highest price reaching IDR 48,700.00occurring in July 2022.The price of large red chilies in this market is quite volatile, with a coefficient of variation value of 38.17 percent.On the other hand, the average price of curly red chilies reaches IDR 28,630.49/kg,with the lowest price being IDR 10,950.00 and the highest price reaching IDR 51,200.00.The price of curly red chilies in this market also fluctuates moderately, with a coefficient of variation value of 36.71 percent.If the average of the two types of red chilies at Pabaeng-baeng Market reaches IDR 26,945.12/kg, the lowest price X occurred in June 2020 at IDR 10,225.00 and the highest price of IDR 49,950.00 was reached in July 2022.Red chili prices generally fluctuate moderately, with an average coefficient of variation reaching 36.3 percent.The price of large red chilies at the Daya Market during the period January 2020 to May 2023 averaged IDR 23,796.34/kg,with the lowest price reaching IDR 9,100.00occurring in June 2020 and the highest price of up to IDR 52,750.00occurring in July 2022.The price of large red chilies in this market is quite volatile, with a coefficient of variation value of 42.46 percent.On the other hand, at the same time the average price of curly red chilies reached IDR 27,970.73/kg,with the lowest price being IDR 10,500.00 and the highest price reaching IDR 53,500.00.The price of curly red chilies in this market also fluctuates moderately, with a coefficient of variation value of 36.35 percent.If the average price of the two types of red chilies at Daya Market reaches IDR 25,883.54/kg, the lowest price occurred in June 2020 at IDR 9,800.00 and the highest price of IDR 53,125.00 was reached in July 2022.The price of red chilies generally fluctuates moderately, with an average coefficient of variation reaching 37.68%.

Red Cayenne Pepper Price Fluctuations. The price of red cayenne pepper at Pabaeng-baeng
Market in Makassar City during the period of January 2020 to May 2023 averaged IDR 35,080.49per kilogram, with the lowest price reaching IDR 9,350.00occurring in August 2020 and the highest price of up to IDR 79,950.00occurring in March 2021.The price of red cayenne pepper in this market is very volatile, with a coefficient of variation value of 50.41 percent.More details can be seen in Figure 3.
Price fluctuations occur in cayenne pepper commodities in the Daya Market, the prices set by traders vary quite a lot every year.The average price of cayenne pepper per kilogram for the last 3 years, namely in 2020 was IDR 21,916.00; in 2021 it reached IDR 39,950.00;and in 2022 it is IDR 28,383.00.Factors that have a significant influence on cayenne pepper price fluctuations in the Daya Market are the purchase price of traders at the collector/farmer level and consumer demand [15].The average chili commodity price in the Makassar traditional market per kilogram is IDR 24,528.09for large red chili, curly red chili IDR 28,300.61and red cayenne pepper IDR 34,450.00.The price of red cayenne pepper tends to be the highest compared to the price of other chili.The price of curly red chili has a higher level of spiciness compared to large red chili, so when the price of red cayenne pepper is expensive, curly red chili can be a substitute item, so the price of curly red chili becomes relatively more expensive.The stability of chili prices can be seen from the value of the coefficient of variation obtained, which shows the level of price fluctuation, the lower the value of the coefficient of variation, the more stable the price is because it has a low level of fluctuation.The value of the coefficient of variation in chili prices in general in Makassar City Traditional Market was 36.41 percent for curly red chili, 40.04 percent large red chili and 50.13 percent red cayenne pepper.Red cayenne pepper commodity has a high level of price fluctuation, so the price of red cayenne pepper tends to be unstable in the Makassar City Traditional Market (Table 1).Large red chilies have a coefficient of variation of 0.38 in Jambi City, while curly red chilies have a coefficient of variation of 0.40.The coefficient of variance clearly demonstrates a difference where the coefficient of variance of the curly red chili price is greater than the coefficient of variance of the huge red chili price.However, statistically, there is no discernible difference between these two coefficients of variance [9].The difference in chili prices demonstrates the month-to-month variation in pricing; the highest national price for large red chilies occurred in March 2019 at IDR 60,200.00/kg,while the lowest price occurred in March 2020 at IDR 28,600.00/kg.The maximum national price for cayenne pepper was IDR 77,350.00/kg in August 2019, while the lowest price was IDR 32,000.00 in October 2020.The occurrence of price disparity is certainly strongly influenced by seasonal price fluctuations that occur almost every year [16].Food prices, especially red chili and cayenne pepper between regions in Traditional Markets in Indonesia in 2019 (before the Covid19 Pandemic) had a coefficient of variation value of 20.45 for red chili and 23.65 percent for cayenne pepper, while in 2020 (during the Covid19 Pandemic) it reached 24.14 for red chili and 31.7 for cayenne pepper.Changes in the coefficient of variation of horticultural products in each province, especially cayenne pepper and red chili in traditional markets, increased by 0.07 and 0.04 [17].The price trend of large red chilies in Lombok Regency in 2020 has a trend line that is leaning towards a decrease every month.The average price of large red chili reaches IDR 33,608.00 per kilogram, with a price reduction rate of IDR 1,298.50/kg/month[18].The price of large red chilies in the Daya Market of Makassar City during the period of January 2020 to May 2023 has an upward trend.The price increase of red chili is large in this market amounting to IDR 96.20 /kg/month.The large red chili price increase in Daya Market is relatively smaller compared to Pabaeng-baeng Market.This can happen because Pabaeng-baeng Market is located almost in the middle of Makassar City, while Daya Market is relatively far from the city center (direct border with Maros Regency).Thus, price spikes are relatively stable because real demand is lower than in urban centers.The price of curly red chile in Pabaeng-baeng Market, increased from January 2020 to May 2023.Curly red chili prices in this market increased by IDR 217.85/kg/month.The price of curly red chile in Daya Market has been rising from January 2020 to May 2023.Curly red chili prices in this market increased by IDR 184.13/kg/month.Figures 6 and 7 show the price trend of curly red chili in further detail.The price trend of curly red chili in Pabaeng-baeng Market from January 2020 to May 2023 has a larger rise (IDR 33.72/kg/month) than the price trend of curly red chili in Daya Market.This phenomenon can occur due to the same conditions as the price trend of large red chili in the two markets, namely the difference between regions close to the urban center.Pabaeng-baeng Market is in the urban center, while Daya Market is on the outskirts of the urban area, so this causes different amounts of demand.In Lombok Regency, the price of red cayenne pepper in 2020 has a trend line that is leaning towards a decrease every month.The average price of red cayenne pepper reaches IDR 48,708.00/kg,with a price reduction of IDR 3,198.80/kg/month[18].The price of red cayenne pepper in the Makassar City, Daya Market during the period of January 2020 to May 2023 has an upward trend.The price increase of red cayenne pepper in this market amounted to IDR 377.43 per kilogram per month.The pricing trend of cayenne pepper in Makassar City's traditional market shows a decreasing tendency from January 2017 to May 2021.According to this trend line, the price of cayenne pepper in Makassar City's traditional market has reduced by IDR 223.53/kg/month [14].The price of chili (large red chili, curly red chili, red cayenne pepper) in Pabaeng-baeng Market as a whole has an average price that tends to be higher than in Daya Market.This is in line with the existing condition of Pabaeng-baeng Market which is always crowded every day with buyers because it has a more strategic location in meeting market demand.To find out the trend of chili commodities in the Makassar City Traditional Market, it can be observed in Table 2.The price of chili commodities in the traditional market of Makassar City has an upward trend, both in Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market.The price of red cayenne pepper has the highest rate of increase (IDR 362.42 /kg/month) followed by the price of curly red chili (IDR 200.99 /kg/month), and large red chili (IDR 144.24 /kg/month).During the period of 2016 to 2018 in the South Sulawesi Province, the price trend of red chili increased by IDR 78.73 /kg/month, with an average price of IDR 24,808.00/kg [19].The price trend of red chili in the traditional market of Makassar City shows an upward trend during the period from January 2017 to May 2021.From this trend line, it can be seen that the price of red chili in the traditional market of Makassar City increased by IDR 23.38 /kg/month [14].

Chili Price Comparison
Red chili peppers are a high-value product for farmers and a significant contributor to overall price inflation.The impact on farmers' income and inflation is primarily due to varying chile prices caused by seasonal harvests [20].The findings of the comparison of chili commodity prices are shown in Table 3.In both Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market, the price of red cayenne pepper is much higher than the price of large red chili and curly chili.In the two markets, there was no substantial price difference between huge red chili and red wrinkled chili.The prices of chili commodities in the Makassar City Traditional Market were compared between types of chili from January 2020 to May 2023.In both Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market, the price of red cayenne pepper is much higher than the price of large red chili and curly chili.In both markets, the price of huge red chili peppers and curly red chili peppers is not much different.The price of chili commodities in the Makassar Traditional Market during January 2020 to May 2023 is compared between market locations.The prices of large red chili, curly red chili, and red cayenne pepper in Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market were not significantly different, although the average value of these prices was higher in Pabaeng-baeng Market.Thus, buyers or consumers can choose the location of traditional markets according to the distance from where they live, because the difference in chili commodity prices between traditional markets is not significantly different.

Conclusion
The price of huge red chilies and curly red chilies fluctuates significantly in the Makassar Traditional Market from January 2020 to May 2023, whereas the price of red cayenne pepper fluctuates significantly.Large red chili prices are more unpredictable than curly red chili prices.Large red chili prices are more volatile in Daya Market than in Pabaeng-baeng Market, while curly red chili prices are more unpredictable in Pabaeng-baeng Market.Large red chilies increased in price by IDR 144.24 per kilogram, curly red chilies increased by IDR 200.99 per kilogram, and cayenne pepper increased by IDR 362.42 per kilogram.The Pabaeng-baeng Market has a higher price trend for huge red chilies and curly red chilies than the Daya Market; however, the Daya Market has a higher price trend for cayenne pepper.The price of cayenne pepper was much greater than the prices of huge red chili and curly red chili.The prices of red chili and cayenne pepper in Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market are nearly identical.

Figure 1 .Figure 2 .
Figure 1.Fluctuations in the Price of Red Chili at the Pabaeng-baeng Market in Makassar City The price of large red chilies in the traditional market area of Makassar City during the period of January 2017 to May 2021 has an average of IDR 25,220.00/kg.The value of the coefficient of variation of 64.57percent indicates a very high level of red chili price volatility.The price trend of red chili in the traditional market of Makassar City shows an upward trend during the period from January 2017 to May 2021.From this trend line, it can be seen that the price of red chili in the traditional market of Makassar City increased by IDR 23.38 per kilogram per month

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Fluctuations in Red Cayenne Pepper Prices in the Pabaeng-baeng and Daya Market

Figure 4 .Figure 5 .
Figure 4. Trend of Large Red Chili Prices at the Pabaeng-baeng Market

Figure 8 .Figure 9 .
Figure 8. Trend of Red Cayenne Pepper Prices in the Pabaeng-baeng Market

Table 1 .
Chili Commodity Price Fluctuations in Makassar Traditional Market The price of huge red chilies at Makassar City's Pabaeng-baeng Market increased from January 2020 to May 2023.The monthly price rise for red chili in this market is IDR 192.27/kg.After the Covids19 Pandemic, almost all strategic food commodities have an upward trend, due to the recovering economy.
International Conference on Agriculture, Environment, and Food Security Red Cayenne Pepper Price Trend.The price of red cayenne pepper in Pabaeng-baeng Market in Makassar City during the period of January 2020 to May 2023 has an upward trend.The price increase of red cayenne pepper in this market amounted to IDR 347.40 per kilogram per month.

Table 2 .
Chili Commodity Price Trend in Makassar Traditional Market (January 2020 -May 2023)

Table 3 .
Comparison of Chili Commodity Prices in Makassar Traditional Market

Table 4 .
Comparison of Chili Commodity Prices at Pabaeng-baeng Market and Daya Market