Analysis of some variables affecting the marketable surplus of wheat production farms in Iraq

The change in the familiar features of the markets for selling the wheat crop in Iraq is one of the most important problems facing wheat farmers in Iraq. Where that surplus is sold among its various distribution channels in the country. The research aims to identify the most important economic and social factors affecting the marketable surplus of wheat farms in Baghdad governorate for the agricultural season 2023. The study was based mainly on the primary data of a simple random sample of a total of 50 wheat farmers in Baghdad governorate distributed among the various agricultural units of the governorate. The data required for the study were collected through a questionnaire prepared to achieve the research objective. The estimated results indicated that the marketable surplus of the wheat crop in the farms of the study sample is affected by each of the variables: the quantity of crop production, average selling price, in-kind deductions, harvest and collection loss, and family consumption, where the significance of these factors proved at different statistical levels, while there were no significant differences in the effect on the marketable surplus of wheat in relation to the cultivated area variable in all the estimated functional formulas.


Introduction
The agricultural sector in Iraq is one of the main sectors in the Iraqi economy, where its contribution to the formation of the gross national product occupies an important position among other sectors.Agriculture also employs an important proportion of the Iraqi labor force, estimated at about 28% of the total labor force in the Iraqi economy.It is also an important source of sustenance and income for a wide segment of the Iraqi society, who practice agriculture or live in the countryside, where this percentage is estimated at more than 30% of the total population.Despite all these advantages, this sector still suffers from the lack of complementary and assistance products, especially in the areas of modern marketing of agricultural products and industries that rely on surplus agricultural production (marketable production surplus), where agriculture is the main source of all foodstuffs that achieve food security for the country's population [1].
Marketable production surplus explains the concept of an unsold product that still carries some value to the farm [2], in other words the product is fit for sale in the market -undamaged and unopened -and is likely to be sold.From this concept, it is clear that the marketable surplus often focuses on unsold commodities produced beyond what the farmer plans to sell in the market [3], where this surplus can result from increased production, accumulation of unsold commodities, or from a combination of other 1302 (2024) 012121 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1302/1/012121 2 factors.In agriculture, the marketable surplus represents the surplus of the crop that can be sold for profit after the farmer sells his crop to cover the costs of maintaining and operating his farm, which includes maintenance of machinery, labor costs, fertilizers, payment of mortgage on the land and other expenses that the production of the crop must be able to cover these expenses [4].
The agricultural concept comes into force in areas where agriculture is the main source of the population income, where the family consumes the grown food and the surplus is sold in the market.In order to balance the amount of food that the family needs, and the amount of food that must be sold to cover agricultural costs, this marketable surplus can have significant effects, especially on low-income farms [5].
The theoretical concept of marketable surplus is the amount of product that can be made available to the non-agricultural population of the country, remaining with the farmers after satisfying their requirements for household consumption, farm needs for seed and livestock feed, in kind payment for labor, mechanical payments to the landlord as rent, in kind religious payments and other obligations.The amount of marketable surplus varies from one region to another and within the same region, and from one crop to another, also it varies from one farm to another according to the determinants of those farms [6].
The research problem stems from a change in the familiar features of the wheat crop markets in Iraq in general, and a change in the means by which the total output of the crop is distributed in general and the marketable surplus from it in particular [7], where that surplus is disbursed among its various distribution channels represented in each of the state, wholesalers, local markets, family, neighbors, relatives and friends, and what is stored of seeds for next year's production [8].Knowing the way in which that surplus is distributed under the influence of some factors would contribute or help in reconsidering the marketing pathways related to the distribution of the produced quantities of the wheat crop and the marketed surplus of it.Proceeding from the problem in question, the study aims, in general, to identify the most important economic factors affecting the marketable surplus of the wheat crop in Baghdad governorate, through analyzing the multiple regression model for the relationship under study.

Study Sample
In order to achieve the objective of the research, the study relied mainly on data and information from their primary sources for a simple random sample of a total of 50 wheat farmers in Baghdad governorate distributed among the various agricultural units of the governorate in the agricultural season 2022/2023.The data required for the study were collected by personal interviews with the study farmers through a questionnaire prepared for this purpose.Secondary data related to the study were also obtained from ministries and official departments in the country [9], [10], and [11].

Classification of the Study Model
The research adopts the method of descriptive statistical analysis and standard quantitative analysis of the regression model of the marketable surplus of the wheat crop.In general, the marketable surplus equation can be written as follows [12] and [13]: ) where: MS = Marketable surplus of crop P = Total production quantity C = The quantity of the aggregate requirements of the yield (family consumption, farm needs for seed and livestock feed, in kind payment for labour, mechanical payments to the owner as rent, in kind religious payments and other in-kind obligations).
The regression model of the marketable surplus of the wheat crop can also be described and formulated as follows [14], [15], and [16]: (2) where: Yi: The marketable surplus of the wheat crop in the farms of the study sample /ton X1: Cultivated area with wheat/dunum X2: Quantity of wheat production /ton X3: Household consumption of wheat yield /ton X4: The total amount of other in-kind deductions from the yield /ton X5: The number of losses during the harvesting and collection stage /ton X6: The average selling price of one ton of wheat /Iraqi dinar.ei: Random error term.
Since the economic theory did not refer to the appropriate mathematical form of the relationship between the variables of the study, therefore, four different functional formulas will be estimated for the marketable surplus regression model, namely: the linear, the double logarithmic, the semi-logarithmic, and the exponential formula [17].

A Study of Compound Annual Growth Rates for the Most Important Economic Indicators of the Wheat Crop in Iraq
This part includes estimating the rates of some important economic indicators of the wheat crop related to calculating the marketable surplus of the crop at the level of Iraq in the period (2000-2022), which are: cultivated area with wheat, the total domestic production of wheat, the net domestic production, the total imports of wheat, the net imports, the total available for domestic supply, the total marketable surplus of wheat, and the total available for sale or commercial exchange.
The net production is the total agricultural production minus the quantity stored as seeds for the next year, while the net imports represent the difference between the number of total imports and the amount lost in them, the domestic supply represents the net production plus the net imports, The marketable surplus expresses the amount available for commercial exchange of agricultural production, and it represents the total agricultural production minus each of the family consumption, what is stored of grain as seeds for the next year, losses during harvesting and collection, livestock feed, the total deductions that include gifts and compliments such as zakat and part of the farm's production which is distributed to married sons and daughters who live outside the family, the social contributions of parents and neighbours, and in-kind wages paid by the family in exchange for work and services from non-agricultural activities.As for the quantities available for sale and trade, they include the marketable surplus plus net imports.
The compound annual growth rates presented in Table 1 indicate that each of the indicators of area, gross domestic production, and total marketable surplus of the wheat crop took an increasing path during the period (2000-2022) estimated at about 0.003, 4%, and 4% for each of them, respectively.The annual average of these indicators was estimated at about 6053 thousand dunums, 2869 thousand tons, and 1693 thousand tons, also in the same order.
While the compound annual growth rates for each of the indicators of total imports, total available for supply, and total available for sale or commercial exchange during the study period took a decreasing path estimated at about 20%, 0.005, 2% for each of them, respectively, and the annual average of these indicators was estimated at about 1154 thousand tons, 3679 thousand tons, 2789 thousand tons, also in the same order.Source: [9] *Calculated by the researchers according to the rates of the study sample percentages and according to the following equations based on previous studies: Net Domestic Production = Gross Domestic Production -Amount stored as seeds for the next year (10%) Total in-kind deductions = withdrawn for family consumption (15%) + wages in kind (10%) + gifts for relatives and neighbours (3%) + harvest and collection losses (2%) + livestock feed (1%) Total marketable surplus = net domestic production -total in-kind deductions.Net imports = total imports -the amount of loss in imports (5%) Total available for domestic supply = net domestic production + net imports Total available for trade = total marketable surplus + net imports ** Significant at an acceptable statistical level.

Studying the Relative Importance of the Distribution Pathways of the Marketable Surplus of the Wheat Crop in the Study Sample Farms
It is clear from the data presented in Table 2 that the marketable surplus of the wheat crop in Baghdad governorate (158,185 thousand tons) is distributed through three distribution outlets; The first is marketing to the state, the second is marketing to wholesalers, and the third is marketing to a crop vendor.Where the state tract acquires the vast majority of that surplus by 60% (33 farmers), followed by the wholesaler tract by 39% (15 farmers), then the brokers and intermediary's tract by about 1% (2 farmers).The reason for the state receiving the largest quantity of the marketed surplus of the wheat crop is due to the condition of marketing through the state's outlets in return for subsidizing the requirements of agricultural production, to ensure the continuity of the flow of wheat flour to the country's population through the items of the ration card that began to be used since 1990 to keep pace with the economic sanctions imposed on Iraq in that period.

The Results of the Statistical and Economic Analysis of the Estimated Marketable Surplus Regression Model
3.3.1 Studying some economic and social variables in the researched sample.Table 3 shows the results of analyzing some of the economic and social characteristics of the sample.These characteristics are expected to have a significant impact on the produced quantities of wheat, and then the marketed quantities.The marketable surplus varies from one farm to another, and within the farm itself, as well as from one crop to another.In general, there are some variables that affect the marketable surplus at the farm level from various field crops, namely: the farm area, the amount of crop production, withdrawn for family consumption, withdrawn as in-kind deductions and other uses, lost harvest and collection, and the selling price of the crop.
As can be seen in Table 3, the average age of the selected sample is about 48 years, about 60% of the farmers (more than half of the sample) are less than or equal to 50 years old, and about 40% of them are over fifty years old.Values related to the educational level, it is noted that most of the farmers receive education of different levels, as the percentage of educated farmers reached about 68%, and about 32% of them were unable to obtain any form of education.It is noteworthy that the educational level of the individual has a significant role in influencing the disposal of the consumed and marketed quantities of various local commodities in Baghdad governorate [18] and [19].
With regard to the variable of the number of family members, it is noticed that more than half of the sample (62%) have an average of 6-10 members, followed by families that have an average of 28%, then families that have a lot of members with a rate of 10%.With regard to the variable of the cultivated area with wheat, it is noted that the largest category in the cultivation of the crop (more than 10 dunums) constituted 60%, while the categories of small and medium areas accounted for 20% alike.
With regard to the issue of the amount of wheat production, this variable was divided into three categories according to the average productivity of one dunum.The high-production category accounted for about 58%, followed by the medium-production category about 30%, then the low-production category about 12%.Finally, the case of marketing the crop as a dummy variable, where the percentage of farmers who sell the farm's production completely as a marketed surplus through its various marketing outlets is about 24%, while the category of farmers who partially sell their products constitutes the largest percentage of about 76%, which confirms the presence of factors influencing the marketed quantities from the yield of wheat.On the other hand, the estimated results display, an increase in the selling prices of the marketed crop is likely to encourage farmers to increase the sold quantities in order to earn more agricultural profits.While the results show that in-kind deductions and harvest and collection losses were significant at a statistical level of 5% and negatively affected the marketable surplus of wheat, which means that an increase in these variables leads to a decrease in the marketable surplus of wheat in the study area.This is a predictable result, that any donations or losses in the crop will be at the expense of the sold quantities outside the farm [20].

Conclusions
From the results of the study, it can be said that the marketable surplus of the wheat crop in Baghdad governorate is positively affected by a set of variables, namely: the amount of crop production, the average selling price per ton, and family consumption, while the marketable surplus of wheat is negatively related to other variables: in-kind deductions, and harvest and collection losses.Accordingly, it can be concluded that there is a possibility to increase the marketable surplus of wheat by setting appropriate measurements and standards that will improve the activities of farms, and overcome all production and marketing obstacles facing farmers in the governorate.
In light of the foregoing, the study recommends the need for food awareness for individuals in rationing wheat consumption from the farm, as well as encouraging the establishment of an efficient marketing system by governmental and non-governmental organizations to market wheat output at the governorate level, in a way that attracts farmers to increase their production of the crop and create price incentives that enable them to achieve more profits, and to provide technical and logistical assistance by the institutions and research centres located in the governorate.

Table 1 .
Some economic indicators of the wheat crop in Iraq for the period (2000-2022).

Table 2 .
Results of investigation of the distribution channels of the marketable surplus of the wheat crop in the study sample farms.
Source: Calculated by researchers based on field survey data, 2023.

Table 4 .
Results of analysis of multiple regression model of the marketable surplus of wheat for the study sample.