Climate Change and its Potential Impacts on Iraqi Environment: Overview

Deforestation, agricultural practices, and greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels have all contributed to global warming and climate change since the Industrial Revolution. Observed and predicted climate changes include rising sea levels, altered rainfall patterns, altered frequency and distribution of weather events like heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts, as well as the effects on natural and human systems.. Iraq, in particular, is experiencing the full range of climate change effects, which is exacerbated by the country’s precarious state and dilapidated infrastructure. Iraq has been listed as the fifth worst-affected country to climate change due to variables such as rising temperatures, less and erratic rainfall, increased droughts and water scarcity, frequent sand and dust storms, and flooding. In addition, neighbouring countries’ water policies have reduced vital water sources, while rapid population growth, urbanization, and inefficient water use by the agricultural and industrial sectors are driving a demand for more water. The objective of the current study is to focus on Iraq’s major climate change issues, which include: Growing Desertification, Drought, and scarcity of water.


Introduction
Climate change is caused by rising emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which trap energy in our atmosphere and generate a "greenhouse effect."This greenhouse effect warms the world, resulting in severe weather patterns, weakened food security, and an increase in vector-borne and climate-related diseases and mortality.Evidence implies that numerous human-caused activities have resulted in the release of enormous amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, resulting in climate change and global warming [1].Majority of these gases are produced by burning fossil fuels for energy production, with significant contributions from deforestation, industrial operations, and agricultural processes [2].Certain aspects of climate change, such as rising average temperatures, are clearly understood and commonly acknowledged.On the other hand, it is predicted that climate change will lead to greater variations in climate phenomena like droughts, floods, and desertification; additionally, it will cause more frequent and severe weather events like storms and cyclones; and lastly, it will increase seasonal variability from dry and extremely wet summers to mild and harsh winters [3].Iraq is becoming more and more concerned about the effects of climate change.Over the past few decades, the nation has frequently suffered from severe droughts and flooding.Between 1998Between -2000Between and 2007Between -2009, rising temperatures and a decrease in precipitation, in particular, increased water scarcity and severe droughts.[4].Due to extremely low precipitation levels during the winter of 2017-2018, 2018 was recorded as one of the driest years [5], There was also a record of another drought 1300 (2024) 012010 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1300/1/012010 2 year on 2021.Climate change assessments of Iraq based on predictions and Circulation Model (GCM) outputs under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and by applied GIS mapping show that, the air temperature of Iraq is increasing while precipitation is decreasing during the period of (2010-2040) [6].Analysis of rainfall and temperature data from several sites of Iraq shows that rainfall will continue to reduce and temperatures will increase in the future.Rainfall will come in a shorter period and will be more intense [7], which result a high rate of sediment transport, resulting in a decrease in reservoir storage capacity and low agricultural yield [8].By using statistical analysis and digital processing software for satellite images, some studies have tried to lessen the effects of climate change.According to a study, hydrologists, planners, and decision-makers can mitigate the risk of desertification and prioritize the selection of suitable sites for rainwater harvesting by using the weighted linear combination (WLC) and Boolean methods within the (Geographical Information System: GIS) environment and by analyzing the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) with changes in the Land Degradation Index (LDI) [9].

Location and Climate
Iraq is located between latitudes 29°5' to 37°15' N and longitudes 38°45' to 48° 45' E, as shown in Fig. 1.Iraq country located in the Western Asia which includes most part of the eastern Syrian Desert, the northern part of Arabian Desert, and the end of the northern Zagros mountain range.Geographically speaking, the Arabian Desert is a portion of the Arabian Peninsula and is situated in the southwest and central governorates, bordering Jordan and Saudi Arabia.With 40 million people living there, and 28% of them living in rural areas, Iraq covered a total area of 437,072 km 2 [10].Iraq has a subtropical, continental climate that is a range from arid to semi-arid, characterized by dry hot summers and cooler winters.The annual temperature ranges from 8.5 to 49 degrees Celsius.Summer temperatures range from 16 to 51 degrees Celsius and winter temperatures range from 8.5 to 14 degrees Celsius [11].Figure 2 shows the fluctuations in Iraq's mean annual temperature from 1901 3 to 2020, as indicated by the ECMWF's era 5 reanalysis (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets,2022).Figure 3 shows the annual mean precipitation for the same period.

2.2.Topography
The country is topographically separated into four distinct areas as shown in Fig. 4, the mountains to the north and northeast , the upland area to the north of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, the Tigris- Euphrates alluvial lowlands in the center and southeast of Iraq , and the desert to the west and south , [12].

Result and Discussion
Climate change's consequences on many Iraqi aspect have been well acknowledged, and they have cast a shadow over general life in Iraq, particularly given the country's weak conditions and deteriorating infrastructure.According to the IPCC climate scenario, temperatures have increased by 0.9°C on average since 2007.In a nation where temperatures frequently rise beyond 50°C on numerous summer days, it could reach a shocking 3.5°C in the year 2100 if current trends continue [13] .On the other side, the annual precipitation rates are predicted to decline significantly and continuously, possibly falling as low as 30% by 2100, less than its rate from 1938 to 1978.According to these abnormal changes in climatic elements, negative changes will occur in environmental features, as follows:

Desertification
The definition of desertification is "land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid lands," whereas the definition of land degradation is "the persistent reduction of biological and economic productivity" [14].Desertification can have disastrous consequences.Desertification diminishes the land's tolerance to natural climate changes.It interrupts the normal water and nutrient cycle.It exacerbates severe winds and wildfires.The consequences of dust storms and water body sedimentation can be observed thousands of kilometers away from the problem's source [2] Desertification has the potential to cause prolonged periods of starvation in already impoverished countries that are unable to withstand massive crop losses.Poor rural residents who rely on agriculture for a living are frequently forced to migrate or face famine.. Iraq is becoming more and more of a desert for various reasons.Soil erosion, low precipitation and water availability, and high temperatures are some of the climate elements contributing to the desertification problem.The problem is aggravated further by human-caused causes such as growth in population, which promotes the depletion of natural resources; unregulated tree felling, which contributes significantly to deforestation, inadequate water management and inefficient farming techniques.The total desertification area in Iraq is estimated to be 167,000 km 2 ., accounting for 40% of the country's total area of 437,500 km 2 [15].Given the fact that desertification claims 100 square kilometers of fertile land every year and that over 40% of the country is currently covered in desert, it is evident that the agricultural sector is in decline and will only get worse.Estimated cultivated fields fell from 12.2% to 8.3% of the nation's total area between 1970 and 2010 [16].The percentage of vulnerable desertification -prone lands for each governorate in Iraq is shown in Fig. 5. [12].

Lack of water
The Tigris and Euphrates rivers are Iraq's two major rivers.These rivers get 71% of their water from Turkey, 6.9 % from Iran, and 4% from Syria; the remaining 4% comes from Iraq [17] .Beginning in the 1970s, Turkey and Syria began major water infrastructure projects on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, including dam construction as well as power plant construction, contributing to a sharp decline in Iraq's water supply [18].It is worth mentioning that, the precipitation falling outside Iraq's borders provides more than half of the country's water.The average discharge in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have already decreased to less than (1/3) of their typical capacity and are predicted to continue declining in the coming years.Nowadays, water insecurity threatens a million Iraqis and is caused by a number of factors including inadequate management of water resources, decreased amounts of water entering Tigris and Euphrates rivers from their source countries, increased population demand, inefficient water use in the oil and agricultural sectors, and conflicts.The flow of the two main rivers, which supply 98% of Iraq's water supply, has fallen by 30% since the 1980s and is expected to drop by 50% by 2030 [19].Fig. 7 shows the current state of Lake Sawa, which was a tourist attraction for thousands of years before becoming nothing more than a wasteland (https://www.copernicus.eu/en/media/image-day-gallery/al-sawa-lakehas-completely-dried).Sawa Lake's drought is caused by more than just a lack of rain.Sawa Lake, unlike other bodies of water that rely on surface water, is primarily recharged by groundwater.The primary cause of the lake's drying up is excessive groundwater pumping from surrounding areas.The altimetry data from five lakes shows in Fig. 8 below, illustrating the levels' fluctuations during a three-year period (2019-2021), with a decline in 2021.This information was employed because, for some water reservoirs, altimetry data provides a more accurate way to measure the drop in water level than lake size [20].In the other side, water in some areas has become so salinated that it can no longer be used for agriculture.Water scarcity frequently means a failure of supply for widely dispersed irrigation systems.As a result, over the past ten years, agricultural activity and food production have declined, especially in Iraq's southern provinces.

Drought
Drought is an extreme phenomenon that occurs on a regular basis, primarily due to a lack of precipitation.Other meteorological variables, such as, wind, relative humidity, temperature and timing of precipitation, may also contribute the occurrence of drought.Drought is a natural disaster that affects many aspects of the hydrologic cycle, including crop productivity, surface and subsurface water availability, crop supply, and management of water resources [21].Droughts are one of the more severe and frequent variations in climate phenomena caused by climate change, causing significant property damage, assets, and human life.Of course, the large waves of drought that led to amplified desertification.Desertification, in turn, has resulted in an increase in dust and dust storms, which have resulted in a significant increase in the number of asthma cases in Iraq, particularly among children and the elderly, due to their severity, frequency, recurrence, and long duration [13].As a result of the economic, environment, health and agricultural impact caused by drought, it has been categorized globally as a form of natural disaster.Figure (9) illustrates the categories of natural disasters that are internationally classed during the period (1970 -2023) (https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters).The drought and low rainfall in Iraq contributed greatly in reducing river flow and marshes (as illustrated in Fig. 11), causing wells, springs, irrigation channels, and streams to dry out, making them more vulnerable to pollution from industrial effluent or agricultural irrigation, which transports contaminated organic materials or solid waste material.Also, drought has become a major concern in Iraq, causing sand storms, desertification, and a decrease in agricultural area due to a scarcity of water supplies and a decrease in rainfall.

Conclusions
This study reviews the dreadful fact of climate change's effect on the rapid expansion of arid regions in Iraq, which has had an adverse impact on numerous environmental issues.Climate change through Rising temperatures and decreased precipitation, in particular, contributed to increased desertification, lake of water and drought in Iraq.The total desertification area in Iraq is estimated to be 167,000 km 2 , or 40% of the country's total area of 437,500 km 2 .Given the fact that desertification claims 100 square kilometers of fertile land every year and that over 40% of the country is currently covered in desert, it is evident that the agricultural sector is in decline and will only get worse.Iraq's water supply was severely reduced as a result of Turkey and Syria starting large-scale water infrastructure projects on the Euphrates and Tigris, including the construction of dams and power plants.The flow level of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which provide 98% of Iraq's water supply, has dropped by 30% since the 1980s and is expected to drop by 50% by 2030.An IOM report states that the drought, water scarcity, and other climate-related effects have caused more than 3,358 families (20,148 individuals) to be displaced in the southern and central provinces of Iraq, with 2,152 families accounting for 64% of these displacements being intra-district during the period of (Dec.,2021 to March,2022)

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: Location of the study area

Figure 4 :
Figure 4: Topographical Regions of Iraq

Figure 5 :
Figure 5: The percentage of the vulnerable desertification -prone lands for each governorate in Iraq

Figure 6 :
Figure 6: The Desertification aspects due to the climate change

Figure 7 :
Figure 7: Lake Sawa between two periods

Figure 9 :
Figure 9: Natural disaster categories of the world Except for the northern and northeastern mountainous regions, which experience a Mediterranean climate, The majority of Iraq has semi-arid, continental climates that are subtropical.(https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/iraq/climate-data-historical).More specifically and according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Iraq have three climate zones during the period ( 1991-2020) as shown in Fig. 10, Hot-Summer Mediterranean climate (Csa), Hot semi-aride climate (Bsh) and Hot desert climate (Bwh) ( https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/iraq).Therefore, Iraq is located within the arid

Figure 10 :
Figure 10: to Köppen-Geiger climate zones of Iraq

Figure 11 :
Figure 11: Al-Huwaiza Marshes, September 2021Farmers lost their jobs due to the severe effects of the drought, which in turn encouraged displacement.An IOM report states that the drought, water scarcity, and other climate-related effects have caused more than 3,358 families (20,148 individuals) to be displaced in the southern and central provinces of Iraq, with 2,152 families accounting for 64% of these displacements being intra-district during the period of ( Dec., 2021 to March, 2022)[22].The families moved to 128 locations, 74% of which are urban.Fig.12illustrates the displacement paths of families displaced due to climate factors in central and south of Iraq.

Figure 12 :
Figure 12: The displacement paths of the center and south of Iraq