Formulation and selection of blue economy operational business strategy using Montecarlo Simulation and Multi Criteria Decision Making

The Cirebon Government has provided guidelines for the establishment of mangrove ecotourism aimed at reducing the level of mangrove damage in Cirebon, which has reached 75%. One of the newly established mangrove ecotourism sites in January 2023 is the “Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area.” This tourism destination focuses solely on the natural beauty of the mangrove ecosystem, generating revenue from entrance tickets and parking fees. Therefore, a business operational strategy is needed to increase income and the number of visitors. The strategy design is based on the Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE) Matrix, External Factor Evaluation (EFE) Matrix, Internal-External (IE) Matrix, and the General Strategy of Blue Economy, resulting in three alternative strategies: Mangrove Planting Scheme for Tourists, Paddling Attractions for Tourists, and Utilization of Mangrove Trees as Souvenirs. The selected alternative strategy, using the Monte Carlo Simulation and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach, is the Paddling Attractions for Tourists, with an average Net Present Value of Rp 92,210,01, an investment of Rp 544,298,000, an additional 5 local workers, and an estimated 14,598 kg of waste.


Introduction
The mangrove forest in Indonesia is the world's largest mangrove area, covering approximately 20% of the global mangrove ecosystem, with an area of about 3.36 million hectares [1].Despite having the largest proportion of mangroves in the world, the mangrove area in Indonesia, especially along the Java Coast, has experienced a significant reduction of 74% from 173,000 hectares to 45,000 hectares in 2012 [2].One of the regions that has suffered a considerable level of damage is Cirebon Regency, where six districts have experienced a 75% reduction in mangrove coverage [3].The Cirebon Government is making efforts to conserve mangrove forests through ecotourism [4].One ecotourism site established in early 2018 is the "Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area".However, the tourism site was closed again after 21 days of operation due to the lack of public facilities and insufficient funds for their construction.

Formulation and selection of blue economy operational business strategy using Montecarlo Simulation and Multi Criteria Decision Making
N Siswanto 1* , M Rayhan 1 , SI Rosdaniah 2

Material and methods
Stages in the design and selection of a blue economy operational business strategy can be determined as below.

Strategic Formulation
Strategic formulation is the process of using existing information and data to determine business direction to achieve the company's business goals.The strategic formulation steps details as below.

Establish Vision and Mission
Creating vision is carried out to determine the management's goals regarding what the organization want to achieve in the long term.The creation of the vision and mission will be referred to elements of the Blue Economy which are based on the direction of national development [7] [8].

Creating IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix
Based on previous research, observation results, interview results with manager based on strategic management criteria and blue economy indicators [6] [8].

Calculation IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix Values
The assessment for each component from manager Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area with the EFE Matrix rules is 4 = very good, 3 = above average, 2 = average, 1 = below average and the IFE Matrix is 4 = very strong 3 = strong, 2 = weak and 1 = very weak [6].The weight value in each matrix uses the FUCOM (Full Consistency Method) method using a mathematical model [9].

Calculation of Strategic Economic Benefits 2.2.1. Cost Calculation
The cost calculation is adjusted to each strategy alternative with the components of raw material costs, labor costs, electricity costs, and marketing costs.

Revenue Calculation
Revenue from services or goods in each alternative strategy is obtained by the target market multiplied by the selling price of services or goods.

Feasibility Study
The variables used as a feasibility study are NPV and IRR with a Monte Carlo Simulation approach.

Determination of the Best Alternative Strategy
Determination of the criteria for selecting the best alternative strategy will be based on Blue Economy indicators which pay attention to 3 aspects, namely economic, social and environmental as well as ecotourism assessment indicators which are based on the Decree of the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Number 9 of 2021 which was adopted from the Sustainable Tourism Council.Determination of the best alternative strategy using the Topsis Method with the following steps.

Strategic Formulation
Formulation of strategies for the Kasih Sayang Mangrove Zone Tourism as stated below.

Vision and Mission Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area
The tourism vision of the compassionate mangrove zone is "The Compassionate Mangrove Zone as the Leading and Cheapest Tourism Destination Based on Community Education" with the mission of being committed to providing satisfaction to customers by maintaining quality of service, the use of technology in tourism operations, the existence of community participation in seeding and planting mangrove trees, and building partnerships with academics, government, and companies.

IRR (Internal Rate of Return) of Each Alternative Strategy
Based on the target market and demand forecasting for each alternative, the results of the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) for each alternative strategy are stated below.Based on figures 1, 2, and 3 with 1,000 simulation iterations, the average IRR for strategy alternatives 1, 2, 3 respectively is 7.8%; 11%; 10.8%.

Discussion
The initial stage for strategy formulation is to create a tourism vision and mission with the vision created fulfilling SMART rules (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time Bound).This vision has answered specific aspects because it has answered things that need to be done.The reasons for this step are important is who involved to achieve these goals and the place of business activities; in the measurable aspect such as the measurement is clear as well as excellence can be measured from the number of tourists and cheapest in terms of entrance tickets; on the measurable achievable aspect of the existence of human resources who are experts in mangrove tourism.The relevant aspect is providing education to the community regarding the benefits of mangroves, mangrove seeding and planting, able to create jobs for the surrounding community; in the time bound aspect such as the community education aspect can schedule the opening of mangrove planting with the community according to the date you want to set.The value of the IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix with the weighting scale and rating by the tourism management of the Compassionate Mangrove Zone are 2.38 and 2.57 respectively, so that the existence of the Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area is in quadrant 5 with strategies that can be carried out are Market Penetration and Product Development.An alternative recommendation for the Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area is a mangrove planting business scheme for tourists (alternative strategy 1), paddling vehicle for tourists (alternative strategy 2), and utilization of mangrove trees as tourist souvenirs (alternative strategy 3).
The average IRR value for each strategy alternative is above the average inflation rate for the past 10 years with 5.5%, so it can be concluded that strategy alternatives 1, 2, and 3 are feasible to implement.The average NPV of strategy alternatives 1, 2, and 3 respectively is IDR 38,765,646; IDR 92,210,018; IDR 77,539,201 and the opportunity when the NPV is more than 0 alternative strategies 1, 2, and 3 in a row is 61.8%; 71.4%; 67.4%.Results of the simulation carried out are alternative strategy 1 has a winning percentage rate of 10.8%.Strategy alternative 2 has a winning percentage rate for being selected of 68.3% and alternative strategy 3 has a winning percentage rate for being selected of 20.9%.Based on these results, the alternative strategy 2 is the chosen alternative strategy using only the NPV factor in its determination.
Impact of alternative strategies based on investment amount, the number of local workers, and waste for alternative strategy 1 has investment amount of IDR 496,358,000; additional number of local workers by 4; the average garbage waste is 13.229 kg.Furthermore, the alternative strategy 2 has investment amount of IDR 544,298,000; additional number of local workers by 5; the average garbage waste is 14,598 kg.Also, the alternative strategy 3 has investment amount of IDR 502,252,490; additional number of local workers by 7; the average garbage waste is 18.763 kg.Based on the input obtained and processing using the Multi Criteria Decision Making method, the TOPSIS method obtained the sequence are alternative strategy 2, alternative strategy 3, and alternative strategy 1.Based on two approaches, using Monte Carlo simulation and Multi Criteria Decision Making, both results are same.

Conclusion
The alternative tourism strategy for the Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area is the mangrove planting business scheme for tourists, paddling rides for tourists, and utilization of mangrove trees as tourist souvenirs.The selected alternative strategy using the Monte Carlo Simulation approach and Multi Criteria Decision Making are paddling rides for tourists with an average NPV of IDR 92,210,018; investment amount of IDR 544,298,000; the additional number of local workers is 5 and the estimated amount of garbage waste is 14,598 kg.
xij = Alternative i and criteria j 2) Create a Weighted Normalized Decision Matrix yij = wi × rij (6) yij = Weighted normalized matrix of alternative i and criteria j wi = Alternative weights for i rij = Alternative normalized matrix i dan criteria j 3) Determine Positive Ideal Solution Matrix & Negative Ideal Solution Matrix A + = (y1 + , y2 + ,…,yn + )

A + = Positive ideal solution A -= Negative ideal solution 4 )
Determine the Distance Between the Values of Each Alternative with the Positive Ideal Solution Matrix & Negative Ideal Solution Matrix Di + = ∑ ( − )

Table 1 .
3.1.2.IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area Components, weight assessments and ratings of the IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix Compassion for Mangrove Ecotourism Area are listed in table and table 2. IFE Matrix Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area

Table 2 .
EFE Matrix Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism Area IFE Matrix and EFE Matrix Kasih Sayang Mangrove Ecotourism AreaThe results obtained from the IFE Matrix & EFE Matrix are in the V quadrant with the recommended strategy being product development and market penetration.Based on these results, three alternative strategies were formed, such as mangrove planting business scheme for tourists (alternative strategy 1), paddling rides for tourists (alternative strategy 2) and the use of mangrove trees as tourist souvenirs (alternative strategy 3).The tourist souvenir chosen by 110 respondents for the Kasih Sayang Mangrove Tourism was mangrove syrup with the result being 52% mangrove syrup, 28% dodol pidada and 20% did not buy tourist souvenirs.

Table 3 .
Strategy Alternative Master Plan

Table 4 .
Alternative Strategy Criteria 3.3.Selection of Alternative Strategies Using Multi Criteria Decision-Making 3.3.1.Alternative Strategy CriteriaCriteria for alternative strategies are listed in table 4.3.3.2.Weighting Criteria for K-DecisionWeighting method for criteria uses Full Consistency Method with respondents from 1 tourism manager and 5 tourists.The weighting results for the criteria are listed in table 5.

Table 5 .
Mean Criteria for K-Decision

Table 6 .
Alternative Strategy with Normalized Matrix

Table 7 .
Weighted Normalized Matrix Alternatif Strategi Distance Measures Positive and Negative Distance measures positive are listed in table 8 and distance measures negative are shown in table 9.

Table 8 .
Distance Measures Positive

Table 9 .
Distance Measures N Relative Closeness to Ideal SolutionThe results of alternative strategies ranking are shown in table10.

Table 10 .
Ci-Value for Each Alternative Strategy