Analysis of Environmental Factors on Maritime Security Operations Using the Bayesian Network Method

The navy as law enforcement with a main duty of maintaining security in the maritime space of national jurisdiction in accordance with the provisions of national law and ratified international law certainly has warships as a support system to achieve such goal. Certain maritime security operations not only require the readiness of the equipment or ships used, but also the supporting environmental factors. In fact, optimal maritime security operation needs a method for an assessment to determine the implementation of maritime security operation. In this discussion, the researcher found a probability as a result of influential environmental factors by using the Bayesian network to determine whether the area to be passed by operating ships is feasible.


Introduction
A country that has a water zone must face its own challenges regarding the security of its territorial waters.Since Indonesia is an archipelagic country, about 70% of its territory consists of waters [1].A country's navy has a military role, a diplomatic role and also acts as a security guard for a country's territory [2].The diplomatic role aims to carry out politics, both foreign and domestic politics of a country.According to Marsetyo, in carrying out a diplomatic role, a country's Navy must have excellence characters to be displayed consistently from time to time which include human resources (HR) excellence, organizational excellence, and operational capability excellence [1].Associated with the role as a security guard for territorial waters from various types of law violations at sea, in general, a /0/country's navy has a duty to manage security disturbances that occur within the scope of maritime security, namely non-traditional threats such as maritime terrorism, separatism, radicalism that lead to communal conflicts at sea, social unrest among sea users, piracy and piracy at sea, illegal immigrants, illegal fishing and logging, as well as smuggling and marine pollution [3].
This section aims to determine a probability of safety at sea as a result of environmental factor to provide input to decision makers so that the maritime zone security operations can be carried out as optimally as possible.The probability is obtained based on analysis of the Bayesian Direct Acyclic 2 Graph (DAG) network with influencing nodes in the form of environmental factors, operational factors of a warship and violations that occur.

Factors which Influence Law Enforcement at Sea
Law enforcement at sea refers to all activities related to carrying out the law in the waters in accordance with its authority (constabulary function) which applies globally and in accordance with applicable legal provisions to overcome risk of acts of violence, navigation threats, as well as law violations in maritime zone within national jurisdiction [4].One of the steps in carrying out law enforcement at sea is to increase strict supervision by local governments through strengthening security in their maritime zone and developing relevant regulations to prevent violations of the law.Weakness in monitoring the maritime zone may have an impact on the loss of rich natural resource potential in national waters [5].
Warships have a duty as maritime security guards against crimes such as piracy, acts of terrorism, various forms of smuggling, human trafficking, illegal fishing, and damage to the marine environment.Such duty is influenced by various factors, including internal operations and environmental conditions within the area of operation.The operational implementation of warships in an effort to maintain the security of a country's maritime territory is closely related to environmental conditions which play an important role, including the ship's endurance in journeys with limited logistical supplies, operational mileage, and maintenance schedules of the ship itself.Operational logistics include liquid logistics (fuel, slip oil, fresh water, etc.), foods and beverages, as well as logistics for ship maintenance.Ship operations are also influenced by environmental factors in certain areas.Ships sailing against the winds and ocean waves may experience significant obstacles, resulting in the need for more powerful propulsion engines.An increase in the use of engine power will have an impact on the limited operational distance of the ship as well as the greater use of logistics in consumption.
2.1 Lawlessness at sea. "Lawlessness at sea" refers to a situation where the sea zone loses the control and effective rule of law, including piracy, illegal fishing, human trafficking and other illegal activities.The existence of irregular sea zone threatens international trade, disrupts navigation, and has a negative impact on global stability.Such phenomena often occur due to a lack of supervision, weak international cooperation, and low law enforcement capabilities in the region as well as unsupportive local government regulations.Therefore, cross-country cooperation is important to overcome "lawlessness at sea.States should cooperate in the exchange of intelligence, joint patrols, and the exercise of strong law enforcement in the affected sea zones.This cooperation will have a positive impact in reducing threats to maritime security and global stability.Based on the report of the UN Secretary General in 2008 concerning Ocean and the Law of the Sea, there are 7 types of threats at sea [6]:  Piracy and armed robbery;  Terrorist acts;  Illicit tracking in arms and weapons of mass destruction;  Illicit trafficking in narcotics;  Smugling and trafficking of person by sea;  IUU Fishing;  International and unlawful damage to the marine environment.
Of the various types of violations within the scope of maritime security that have been mentioned above, the navy in a country certainly has an important role to protect its maritime territory.

Warship Operations.
Steps in law enforcement at sea include strict supervision and patrols, imposition of strict punishments for offenders, as well as development of appropriate regulations to deal with various forms of maritime crime.In addition, advanced technologies such as satellite monitoring system and automatic identification system (AIS) can be applied to track and observe the movements of vessels at sea.In this context, violations or crimes at sea are not only considered a national problem, but also a global concern.Success in dealing with violations at sea certainly requires cooperation between countries, cross-sectoral coordination, and a commitment to maintaining the security and sustainability of the sea as a shared asset [7].
Operational factors play an important role in determining the level of maritime security [8], which involve some elements as follows:  Sea Crimes and Violations of Jurisdiction.Maritime crimes such as piracy and illegal fishing can undermine security.In addition, violation of jurisdiction is also a serious threat.States must have the ability to enforce the law in their maritime space and prosecute violations that occur. Illegal Fishing.Regulation and supervision of fishing activities is very important.Sustainable legal fishing can help maintain the balance of marine ecosystems and ensure sustainable fish resources. Ship endurance and Ship Movement.Ships that can withstand harsh environmental conditions and have good maneuverability can support law enforcement and patrol operations in the maritime zone. Environmental conditions.Marine environmental conditions, such as adverse weather and pollution, can affect the operational capability of ships and law enforcement personnel.Efforts to protect the environment certainly have a positive impact on the security of the maritime zone.

Environment as a Dominant Factor during Maritime Security Operations.
The marine environment has a dominant effect on ship movements.Unfavorable sea conditions, such as high waves, strong winds, rain and storms, can interfere with the duties of law enforcement officials in carrying out security and law enforcement operations in the maritime zone under their jurisdiction.Certain natural factors become the main obstacles for law enforcement officers operating at sea [7].Such constraints affect almost all stages of law enforcement activities, ranging from monitoring to prosecution and detention of perpetrators of illegal activities [9].

Effect of Rain on Maritime Security
Operations.Rain is one of the important environmental factors that can have a significant impact on maritime security operations.The presence of rain in the maritime environment can affect various aspects of ship operations, law enforcement activities, and territorial waters security.Analysis of environmental factors for marine security operations using the Bayesian Network method should consider the effect of rain on the efficiency and effectiveness of maritime security operations [10].On the other hand, high rainfall in the mainland may also bring sufficient nutrients and cause sea water to be warm, which is suitable for fish growth in the local area.Thus, the fishing area around the area will increase [8].Of course, this condition will certainly trigger violations of the law regarding fish theft at sea.Rain has physical and technical impacts that can affect ship operations and law enforcement activities at sea. High rainfall during maritime security operations can cause low visibility problems, making it difficult to detect other vessels or suspicious activity.Disruption to visibility can hamper patrol and monitoring operations, especially ship navigation.Bad weather conditions due to rain can also cause interference with electronic equipment and ship communications, reducing the efficiency of communication between ships or with the control center [10].Furthermore, rain can affect the condition of the ship's deck, making it more slippery and dangerous for the crew to move on it.Such condition can increase the risk of injury and accidents on board, which in turn can affect operational readiness, crew safety and security as well as law enforcement activities [11].
Rain can also affect ship maneuvers in maritime security operations.Heavy rain can cause stronger waves and ocean currents, resulting in unstable ship movements.Ships sailing in bad weather and rain conditions must overcome challenges in maintaining stability and navigation control [12].Increased sea waves and currents can affect the speed and direction of ships, which in turn can affect the effectiveness of patrols, reconnaissance and law enforcement actions.

Effect of Rain on Humidity during Maritime Security Operations.
Air humidity is one of the important parameters in the maritime environment that can affect various aspects of maritime security operations.Rain is one of the environmental factors that can have a direct impact on air humidity around water areas.An analysis of the effect of rain on air humidity in maritime security operations is very relevant [13], since this factor can have significant implications for the efficiency, effectiveness and safety of operations carried out by ships and law enforcement officers.
Rain has the ability to reduce air humidity in the surrounding environment.When it rains, water will evaporate from the sea surface and the earth's surface, which in turn can result in a decrease in air humidity.Water vapor in the atmosphere is converted into liquid rain, reducing the amount of water vapor present in the air.A decrease in air humidity can have an impact on micro-climatic conditions in and surrounding waters [14].

Effect of Rain on Visibility during Maritime Security
Operations.Visibility plays a central role in maritime security operations.The ability to have a clear view of the maritime environment is of invaluable significance in maintaining ship integrity, identifying potential threats, and conducting law enforcement operations.Natural factors, such as rain, have a real impact on the level of visibility in waters [15].An in-depth analysis on the effect of rain on visibility during maritime security operations is of great urgency to understand the challenges faced by law enforcement officers and vessels actively operating at sea.Rain has the potential direct impact on visibility in the maritime environment, which can be seen through several important mechanisms:  Visual Obstacles.Rainfall may cause substantial visual disturbances.Water droplets falling from the sky may obscure the view, creating a fog-like effect or reducing visibility.Such phenomenon has the potential to make it difficult to detect objects or targets clearly, including other ships, objects above the water surface, or suspicious activities. Fog formation.Rain has the opportunity to trigger the formation of fog or a thin layer of fog on the surface of the sea.This kind of fog can result in very limited visibility and can cause distant objects to become completely invisible.Adjacent ships may also appear only faintly or even completely invisible. Effect on Lighting.Rain also has the potential to affect the intensity of light that reaches the surface of the water.The sun may be blocked or light reflections may be created from raindrops, producing a sparkling effect or light dimming which further result in blurring of vision and poor visibility.

Effect of Day and Night Periods on Environmental Temperature during Maritime Security
Operations.The ambient temperature in ocean maritime operations is a critical factor which affects various aspects of safety, effectiveness and sustainability of operations.One of the factors that have a significant effect on temperature is the periods, in this case the difference between day and night conditions.Changes in temperature during periods of day and night can affect various aspects of maritime security operations, including navigation, crew working condition, and natural resource management.In this analysis, the researchers explored how the occurrence of day and night periods affected the marine environment temperature in the context of maritime operations [16].Effect of the day and night periods on water temperature can be explained through the process of solar radiation and heat loss.During the day, sunlight radiates heat energy to the surface of the water, causing an increase in water temperature.This process is known as heating by solar radiation.On the other hand, during the night, without exposure to sunlight, water tends to lose heat to the surrounding atmosphere, causing a drop in water temperature.This condition is referred to as cooling by radiation [17].
Changes in water temperature that occur throughout the day can affect ship navigation and maritime operations.During the day, when the ambient temperature tends to increase, there is a change in the density of both water and air.The lower density of water can affect the transmission of sound waves and the use of sonar, which are important aspects of ship navigation and detection of subsurface objects.An increase in water temperature can also affect ocean currents and atmospheric conditions, which can further affect navigation plans and travel times.
Temperatures that vary between day and night can also affect marine ecosystems and the natural resources.Temperature changes can affect food cycles, migration of marine species, and other biological activities.Fishermen and maritime law enforcement officers need to pay attention to these changes in their efforts to manage marine natural resources in a sustainable manner.Higher seawater temperatures during the day can also affect the growth and distribution of plankton, which is the basis of the marine food chain [18].

Personnel as Maritime Zone Security Guards.
In maritime security operations, the welfare, safety and performance of the crew are very important.Changes in temperature between day and night can affect the working conditions of the crew on deck and inside the ship [19].Higher temperatures during the day can lead to hot and humid conditions on board, which can affect crew comfort and well-being.On the other hand, lower ambient temperatures during the night can create cold weather which potentially endangers the health of the crew.Temperature management in the ship's working environment is important to ensure the performance and welfare of the crew.In addition, rain conditions can affect the condition of the ship's deck, which may increase the risk of injury and accidents on board.
In turn, such condition can affect operational readiness, crew safety and security as well as law enforcement activities [11].

Methods
The steps in Bayesian network analysis included compiling/identifying the factors that influence maritime security, compiling a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) with the nodes regarding the influencing factors, analyzing the relationship between the influencing factors by compiling a Conditional Probability Table (CPT), to analyzing the probability of security in the maritime area using the academy version of Genie software.Identification of influencing factors and the relationship between these influencing factors was obtained from the literacy process from various sources as well as opinions from several experts in certain fields.This process is one of the important steps that influence risk assessment in data collection and influce the next steps [20].Factors that influnce the security of the maritime area were compiled in a DAG using simple mind software as shown in Figure 1 below.
The process of analyzing relationship between these influencing factors applied scores derived from questionnaire data that had been weighted through data normalization.A CPT was further compiled based on rules in Bayes' theorem as follows: (1) As an illustration of figure 1 below, a probability relationship between ship operations and the factors that affect the operation of these ships can be compiled, so that a CPT table can be compiled as in Table 1 below If it is assumed that the vessel's operational conditions (Y2) with the influence factors of competent crew (A8), ideal environment (A9), ideal vessel motion (A10), and normal vessel endurance (A11), so that a van diagram of the relationship between these factors can be arranged as in Figure 3 below and a probability is arranged as in formula (2) below: The conditions of the 4 influencing factors did not occur simultaneously and did not influence each other.It was indicated that the system worked as a mutually exclusive event.Probabilities ( 8 ), ( 9 ), ( 10 ), and ( 11 ) showed the actual conditions obtained at the time of observation and analysis.On the other hand, Conditions ( 2 | 8 ), ( 2 | 9 ), ( 2 | 10 ), and ( 2 | 11 ) showed the effect size of factors  8 ,  9 ,  10 and  11 which influenced ship operations (R3).Such data indicated fixed variables obtained from various sources that can be accounted for, in order to create a CPT table regarding the relationship between the 4 influencing factors and operations, as shown in table 1 below.Furthermore, using the academy version of Genie software, with the influencing factors that have been obtained from the results of the analysis, simulation tests are carried out as with parameter set-1 as in table 2 above.The simulation results are shown in Figures 4 and 5 below.

Discussion and Analysis
In this discussion where researchers get a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) from the literacy process of discussing the probability analysis of maritime regional security using the Bayesian network method.After the DAG is obtained, then look for the relationship between these influencing factors, which is then carried out a sensitivity analysis to validate the DAG model and the variables that have been obtained previously.Parameter settings -1 for initial test conditions are given as in table 2 below.From the simulation results with parameter set-1 as shown in Figure 5 below, 25 nodes are obtained, with the type of Chance-general, 534 parameters, 267 independents, and 8 factors that have no effect between parent-child nodes from 38 factors that have been created, which are A1-Y1, A2-Y1, A3-Y1, A4-Y1, A5-Y1, A6-Y1, A7-Y1, and A9-A7.While the maritime security probability obtained is the maritime area as shown in Figure 4 above, at the level of vulnerability to violations at sea (P1) of 26%, then it means that it has a level of security in the maritime area (P2) of 74%.This is in accordance with the simulation results which show 8 factors between parent-child nodes that do not have a significant influence due to the absence of territorial violations at sea at node Y1.From the simulation results with parameter set-2, 25 nodes are formed, with the type of Chancegeneral, 534 parameters, 267 independents, there are 2 factors that do not affect the parent-child nodes of the 38 factors/nodes that have been created, the 2 factors are C3-B8, and B4-A10.While the probability of maritime security obtained is the maritime area at the level of vulnerability to violations at sea (P1) of 40%, which means that it has a level of security in the maritime area (P2) of 60%.This is because there are still violations of the law at sea, while there are 2 factors between the parent-child nodes that do not have a significant effect.This is because in the use of normal ship speed, the use of logistics will also be at a normal level, so that the ship's departure and arrival schedule when carrying out operations is in accordance with the plan.While in the relationship between sea state-ship movement, low sea state is supported by normal ship speed, so ship movements due to sea waves (6DOF) are not affected.

Conclusions
This section revealed several important points related to the environmental impact on maritime security operations.Environmental factors such as bad weather, high waves and strong ocean currents can pose a serious challenge to maritime security operations.The Bayesian Network method enables adaptability and responsiveness to environmental changes, as well as adjustments to operational strategies when necessary.In addition, such analysis highlighted the importance of resource optimization by understanding the causal relationship between environmental factors and maritime security operations.Intelligent resource allocation capabilities can cope with deteriorating environmental conditions, maintain operational effectiveness and mitigate greater risks.The use of Bayesian Networks in environmental factor analysis provides a potential to increase the effectiveness of maritime security operations.Strategies can be improved for better results by understanding the effect of environmental variables on operations.The importance of cross-sectoral cooperation was also highlighted in this analysis, by recognizing that environmental factors affect not only security operations, but also other sectors such as fisheries, transport, and the environment.Cross-sectoral cooperation was recognized as a key step towards addressing common challenges and achieving sustainable solutions.In conclusion, the analysis of environmental factors using the Bayesian Network method opened up new opportunities in understanding complex interactions in the maritime zone.Such approach provides hope for a safer and more stable future in global waters through smarter decision-making, sustainable environmental protection, and close cross-sectoral cooperation.Within challenges that are constantly evolving, this

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. DAG Relationship between ship operations and influencing factors.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Van diagram Vessel operation Vs influence factors

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Maritime security in genie software report -set parameter 1.

Table 1 .
Conditional table probability (CPT) Operational Vs influence factors