Determining Rice Farming Risk Priorities in North Aceh Regency.

North Aceh is the main rice-producing district in the Indonesian province of Aceh. This research aims to determine the level of risk, the impact of risk, and the risks that must be prioritized in rice farming businesses in North Aceh Regency. The type of data used in this research is primary and secondary data. Data was collected using a survey method involving 180 respondents using a snowball sampling technique. The data analysis method used in this research is the Risk Calculator method. Risk Calculator is a method for determining priority risks. We found that the risks that need to be a top priority are bird pest attacks, rat pest attacks, Kresek disease attacks, blast disease attacks, and the risk of expensive farm labor wages and high harvest costs.


Introduction
North Aceh is the rice production center in Aceh province, with a planting area of 64,005 ha and a production of 318,432.63 tons [1].As the largest rice production center in Aceh, North Aceh needs attention to help minimize the impact of risks in its lowland rice farming activities.The main risks often experienced in rice farming include the frequency of floods, droughts, and pest attacks, which are becoming increasingly complex problems in a climate change situation that is difficult to predict [2].Capital risk is a risk that can affect rice farming; capital is the main requirement for farming.Uncertainty about risks means farmers need to have the opportunity to obtain maximum profits in farming [3].
The various risks faced by farmers in rice farming in North Aceh are production risks (floods, drought, climate change, infertile soil, pest attacks, disease attacks, irrigation, and seeds), price and marketing risks (cheap grain prices, fertilizer prices high, high pesticide prices and high harvest prices), human resource risks (lack of labor and inadequate use of technology), financial risks (limited capital and lack of business capital), and institutional risks (limited subsidized fertilizer and lack of subsidized 2 fertilizer).To determine risk priorities for rice farmers, a scientific approach is needed.In this research, we used the Risk Calculator method as recommended by Dana L Hoag [4].
Risk prioritization is crucial in risk management for several reasons.It helps organizations allocate resources efficiently, manage time effectively, conduct thorough risk assessments, maintain reputation, comply with regulations, and continuously improve their risk management approaches.By prioritizing risks, organizations can focus on high-impact risks, develop emergency plans, manage time effectively, conduct thorough risk assessments, minimize reputational risk, and ensure compliance with regulations.Organizations can reduce negative impacts and maintain a strong reputation by focusing on these factors.Several methods are often used to determine priority risks.Quantitative risk analysis measures risk by assessing its financial impact.Qualitative risk analysis is more descriptive, identifying risks based on their properties.The risk matrix is a visual tool to evaluate and prioritize risks based on impact and probability.Bowtie method describes the relationship between causes, events, and impacts of risks.Sensitivity analysis identifies risks with the greatest impact on objectives or projects.Delphi method involves group discussion of experts to reach a consensus on priority risks.FMEA analysis assesses potential failures based on severity, likelihood, and detectability.Monte Carlo modeling evaluates risk impact using simulation techniques.Methods may vary depending on an organization's context and environment.In this study we used the risk calculator method to determine risk priorities based on Probability-Impact and Risk-Influence.
It is hoped that the results of this analysis will be a consideration for the provincial agricultural office, district agricultural service, and agricultural extension centers to develop programs and policies to reduce the negative impact of the sources of risk currently faced by North Aceh farmers.

Materials and methods
This research was conducted in June 2023 in North Aceh Regency.This location was chosen because North Aceh Regency is one of the areas that produces rice, and most people make their living as rice farmers.The object studied in this research is determining the priority risks that need to be addressed in North Aceh.The scope of the research determines the risk priorities for lowland rice farming in North Aceh based on farmer information from 4 different types of cultivation techniques.The population in this study was lowland rice farmers in North Aceh Regency.The sampling technique determined four different types of cultivation techniques, and then each type of cultivation technique was taken by respondents using the snowball sampling technique.Four cultivation techniques were identified and used to stratify the sampling design within the study area.The four agricultural systems based on management practices are explained as follows: a) Agricultural System 1: farming uses traditional methods of applying local seed varieties saved from previous harvests, using 75-100 kg/ha of fertilizer; farmers prefer the broadcast planting method, where weeding is done manually, and no special distance is applied and without irrigation.b) Agricultural System 2: applies traditional practices, but farmers use superior varieties (especially INPARI 28) rather than local varieties.Farmers in this group have not used the jajar legowo planting system (arranging planting distances).c) Agricultural System 3: a cultivation system equipped with superior varieties, seed transplants, no spacing, the use of the main types of fertilizer, namely Urea, and NPK, and sometimes the use of organic fertilizer.d) Agricultural System 4: This dedicated farmer group implements some but not all SRI practices, i.e., partial adopters of SRI.The method used in this research is a survey method using questionnaires as a research tool.The method used in this research to analyze the data is the Risk Calculator method.Risk Calculator to determine the level of risk and influence of each risk for each cultivation system.The steps that must be taken are: 1.To prioritize risks, enter them in five categories: production, price and marketing, human resources, financial, and institutional.Determine the level of risk and impact using the formula Risk = (Probability score + Impact score)/2.2. Prioritize risk lists using Probability -Impact tables, focusing on Quadrant 4 risks due to their significant impact, while not prioritizing Quadrant 1 risks and addressing concerns in Quadrants 2 and 3.    Table 2 shows that 49% of respondents were high school students, 26% were junior high school students, 15% had college education, 9% had elementary school education, and 1% had no formal education.

Land area.
The following land area used by respondents can be seen in the table below: Table 3 shows that 47% of respondents have a land area below 0.5, 43% have a land area between 0.5-1 hectare, and 10% have a land area over 1 hectare.The risk calculator was used to determine the priority of risks in rice cultivation in North Aceh Regency using the Microsoft Excel application.The following are the risks that can be obtained from the survey results using a questionnaire by taking the mode number from all questionnaire results to determine the probability, impact, and influence values.The following is a graphic image of risk priorities based on Probability -Impact, as follows: Based on the Impact -Probability graphic image above in quadrant 4, the risks to be prioritized or paid attention to our Production Risks (bird pest attacks, rat pest attacks, Kresek disease attacks, and blast disease attacks), Price and Marketing Risks include (the price of grain is low, the price of fertilizer is high, the price of pesticides is high, the wages of agricultural laborers are expensive and the harvest costs are expensive), there are Financial Risks (the risk of returning capital and lack of business capital).There are Institutional Risks (fertilizer restriction policies and rice import policies).The risks in quadrants 2 and 3 are concerning, namely Production Risks (floods, drought, climate change, infertile soil, planthopper pest attacks, and water shortages).Risks in quadrant 1 that are not a priority or concern are Human Resource Risks or a lack of farm workers.Based on the Risk --Influence graphic image, several risks in quadrant 4 are priorities to pay attention to, namely Production Risks (bird pest attacks, rat pest attacks, Kresek disease attacks, and blast disease attacks), Price and Marketing Risks are (agricultural labor wages are expensive and harvesting costs are expensive).In quadrants 2 and 3, some risks must be considered, namely production risks (floods, drought, infertile soil, planthopper pest attacks, and water shortages), price and marketing risks (low grain prices, high fertilizer prices, and high pesticide prices), from Human Resource risks there are (lack of farm workers), from Financial risks there are (Risk of return of capital and lack of business capital), from institutional risks there are (policies limiting subsidized fertilizers and rice import policies).In quadrant 1 are risks that are not a priority or concern, namely Production Risk (climate change).

Rat Pest Attack.
The rice field rat (Rattus argentiventer) is the main pest of rice plantations in Indonesia [7].This pest attacks almost all rice-growing areas in Indonesia-field mice attack by eating rice stalks.Rats attack at all stages of rice plant growth, from vegetative to generative, causing significant economic losses [8] .The damage caused by rat attacks is very large and can cause crop failure or puso.Field mice can reproduce very rapidly.Theoretically, a pair of field mice can reproduce up to 1,270 individuals per year .Rats only need 3 months to become adults and be able to reproduce; female rats only need about 3 weeks to conceive, and after 2 to 3 days, the rats can breed again [9].
3.3.6.Bird Pest Attacks.The increase in bird population causes a decrease in crop yields.According to [10], bird pests can eat an average of 5 g of rice daily.Attacks by groups of birds have disturbed many farmers.Attacks carried out by bird pests consist of eating the grain on rice panicles that have entered the 70-day planting period.As a result of bird attacks, rice production has decreased by 30-50%.Attacks occur during shady weather conditions and birds attack in groups [11].The impact of this attack resulted in the rice drying out and even the seeds being empty.Farmers use various methods to prevent bird pests from attacking rice plants, namely by making scarecrows or ropes to which used tin cans are tied at a certain distance so that shaking the rope can make a sound, which is expected to scare away bird pests.If this method does not work, it is not uncommon for farmers to immediately jump into the rice fields to chase away birds that land on the rice plants.Of course, this method is very tiring and troublesome if done with large rice fields.When the rice plants have turned yellow, farmers will usually be more active in guarding them, especially during critical hours, namely 6-10 am and 2-6 pm, which is the time when birds are looking for food.In fact, because of the large area of land, some farmers employ people to look after the fields.When viewed from an economic perspective, this method is less effective and efficient because farmers have to incur additional costs to pay their wages [12].

Conclusions
Based on the Impact -Probability analysis, the risks that often occur and have a big impact on farmers in North Aceh are Production Risks: bird pest attacks, rat pest attacks, Kresek disease attacks and blast disease attacks, from Price and Marketing Risks: cheap grain prices, price expensive fertilizer, expensive pesticide prices, expensive farm labor wages and expensive harvest costs, from Financial Risk there is the risk of return of capital and lack of business capital, and from Institutional Risk there is the fertilizer restriction policy and the rice import policy.The risks that need to be prioritized by every farmer in North Aceh because farmers have the ability to control them based on Risk -Influence analysis are from Production Risks: bird pest attacks, rat pest attacks, Kresek disease attacks, and blast disease attacks, from Price and Marketing Risks there are: Farm labor wages are expensive and harvesting costs are expensive.

Table 1 .
Characteristics of respondents based on age.
3.1.Respondent Characteristics 3.1.1.Age.The following is the number and age percentage of respondents, as shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1
describes the characteristics based on the age of the farmers who were respondents in this study.Most lowland rice farmers in North Aceh Regency were used as respondents aged 40-49, with 39% of respondents being of this age group.The second highest age group is aged 50-59, followed by those aged 30-39.Respondents are under 30 years old, as much as 5%, and over 69 years, as much as 1%.3.1.2.Level of education.To find out the education level of respondents, see the table below.

Table 2 .
Characteristics of respondents based on education.

Table 3 .
Characteristics of respondents based on land area.

Table 4 .
3.1.4.Agricultural system.The agricultural systems used by respondents are as follows: Characteristics of respondents based on agricultural system.This research examines risks faced by four farming systems in North Aceh Regency, grouped by characteristics and involving 180 respondents, 45 each.

Table 5 .
Various risks of rice farming.
[5]m labor wages are expensive.Rice farm workers' high wages necessitate smart strategies to manage production costs and maintain business continuity.These include investing in agricultural machinery, training, and skill development, partnering with third parties, utilizing advanced technology, growing crops that require less labor, wise work scheduling, using information technology, joining cooperatives, diversifying farms, exploring government subsidies, and conducting honest negotiations with farm workers.These strategies can improve work efficiency, reduce dependence on labor, and provide access to shared resources and costs.Additionally, incorporating technology-based management systems can help plan and manage agriculture more efficiently.By implementing these strategies, farmers can reduce their dependence on labor and ensure the continuity of their businesses.3.3.2.High harvest costs.Rice farmers can manage production costs and ensure business sustainability by investing in harvest mechanization, training workers, using harvest contracts, offering bonuses or incentives, planning efficient harvest schedules, improving agricultural management, joining cooperatives or groups, exploring more efficient harvesting technology, diversifying their agricultural business, seeking government support, and choosing flexible financing options.These strategies can help reduce dependence on human labor, increase productivity, and provide better crop yields.Additionally, implementing information technology in agricultural management, negotiating with cooperatives or groups, exploring more efficient harvesting technology, diversifying their business, and seeking government support can help farmers overcome high wage costs.3.3.3.Blast Disease Attacks.The disease, caused by the fungus Pyricularia oryzae, is transmitted by wind and is influenced by factors such as variety, lack of potassium and silica, water scarcity, and herbicide-induced plant stress.The genetic diversity of pathogens may result in different blast-resistant varieties in different areas.Control measures include returning straw, increasing manure, aiming for adequate potassium, avoiding herbicides, using PGPR to strengthen plants, and applying compost tea for natural anti-fungal compounds and microelements[5].3.3.4.Kresek disease attacks.Blight, a bacterial attack on rice plants, occurs during the generative phase and is caused by the HDB disease pathogen or Kresek.Xanthomonas oryzae infects rice plants through wounds on leaves and stoma, damaging chlorophyll and causing photosynthesis issues.Control measures include planting resistant varieties, synthetic fungicides, land sanitation, and rotation of nonhost plants.If infected, dolomite, water reduction, and pesticide spraying are recommended steps to control the disease[6] .