Vulnerability of Paddy Farming Households to Climate Change in Aceh Province

Climate change has significantly impacted human history and evolution, making paddy a vulnerable commodity. Historically, humans have been able to adapt to the changing climate, but the long-term effects can inhibit growth and reduce agricultural production. Adaptation strategies can help reduce the effects of climate change and increase benefits, but there is still room for improvement. This study was conducted in Aceh Besar and Aceh Utara Districts. This study focuses on how households that raise paddy are affected by climate change. Purposive sampling was used as the sampling strategy in this study. This research uses a quantitative and qualitative approach. This study uses Livelihood Index analysis (LVI). The research results show that the vulnerability of paddy farming households in North Aceh is more vulnerable to climate change compared to Aceh Besar because the vulnerability value of paddy farming households in Aceh Besar is 0.44 and North Aceh is 0.45. The impact of climate change in Aceh Besar and North Aceh Regencies is that droughts occur more frequently.


Introduction
Climate change refers to alterations in climatic conditions, as evidenced by modifications in the average or variability of climate parameters, occurring over an extended duration.The alterations observed in the climate system prompt corresponding modifications in the occurrence, severity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climatic phenomena.Extreme weather or climate events are inherent components of the climate system's variability, occurring both in stable climatic settings and in the context of climate change [1].In recent years, the agriculture industry in numerous countries has witnessed a notable escalation of concern regarding climate change.Climate change has been a persistent phenomenon over an extended period, significantly influencing both the course of human history and evolution.Throughout history, humanity has demonstrated its capacity to surmount and adjust to alterations in the Earth's climate [2].Nevertheless, climate change in the current period of 1297 (2024) 012020 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1297/1/012020 2 globalization is no longer exclusively attributed to internal processes but primarily influenced by human activities.In the past, it was the alterations in climate that impacted human beings.However, in the present era, humans have become the driving force behind climate change.
One commodity that is vulnerable to global climate change is paddy.Paddy is usually cultivated in the tropics, and climate change that occurs in these tropics can affect production in various ways.In the long term, climate change can inhibit growth and reduce the production and quality of agricultural products [3].In addition to shifts in cultivation areas and their effects on growth, farmers are predicted to experience more severe exposure to new pests and diseases and catastrophic events due to extreme weather, such as floods and droughts [4].
The latest report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I Sixth Assessment Report/AR6 Group 1 IPCC [5] states that in the next two decades, it is estimated that the Earth will experience a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius or even more.The increase was initially predicted to occur in 2100, but in the latest predictions, based on the highest emission scenario, the Earth will warm up to 5.7 degrees Celsius in 2100.At that point, Earth's extreme conditions in 2021 will be considered stable.As a result, the optimal climatic conditions for paddy cultivation in most of the current production areas tend to change.In addition, higher temperatures improve living conditions for pests and diseases.Increased pest attacks lead to loss of quality or even destruction of yields and crops.At the same time, this report shows that even if we take strict emission reduction measures, climate warming is already creeping into the climate system.More dangerous and damaging extreme weather events than we see today will occur.This shows the importance for us to invest in building resilience.
Disaster risk can be defined as a given area's susceptibility to potential hazards and the corresponding threat posed by such hazards.Natural disasters serve as catalysts for the onset of emergencies.In the interim, the factors contributing to vulnerability can be categorized into three distinct types: fundamental underlying causes, dynamic pressures, and physical environmental variables.Poverty, infrastructure, resources, ideology, economic system, and general precondition factors are among the fundamental catalysts of susceptibility [6].The factors contributing to vulnerability are dynamic pressures such as local institutions, education and training, soft skills, local investment, local markets, press freedom, macro forces, population expansion, urbanization, and environmental degradation.Various physical factors, including hazardous geographical locations, the state of infrastructure and structures, the local economy, the number of lives at risk, low-income levels, and overall societal behaviour's, determine the vulnerability to disasters [7].The potential for drought poses a risk that can result in losses.In the agricultural sector, the perception of this risk can be seen as the likelihood of a negative impact, namely a decrease in the production of food crops [4], [7].
Changes in rain patterns have occurred in the last few decades in several regions in Indonesia, such as shifts in the beginning of the rainy season and changes in rainfall patterns [8].Furthermore, it is observed that there exists a proclivity for alterations in the magnitude of monthly precipitation, characterized by heightened fluctuations and deviations, as well as a rise in the occurrence of extreme climatic phenomena, particularly heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flooding.A number of specialists have observed and forecasted alterations in precipitation patterns in the western region of Indonesia, particularly in the northern areas of Sumatra and Kalimantan.These changes entail a decrease in rainfall intensity accompanied by a prolonged duration.On the other hand, it can be observed that in the Southern Region of Java and Bali, there is a tendency for an increase in rainfall intensity accompanied by shorter durations [9].Based on rainfall data in Aceh Province, the average size is from 2017-2021, with an average rainfall intensity of 187 mm [10].Climate change is widely acknowledged to have detrimental effects on several facets of living and the advancement of the agricultural industry.There is apprehension that it will introduce novel challenges to the long-term viability of agricultural output, particularly concerning food crops.In the forthcoming years, agricultural progress will encounter a multitude of significant challenges.These include: 1) a decline in productivity and sluggish production, necessitating the implementation of technological advancements to surmount these obstacles; 2) the deterioration of land and water resources, leading to soil degradation, diminished fertility, and pollution; 3) the presence of variability and climate change, resulting in the occurrence of floods and droughts; and 4) the conversion and fragmentation of agricultural land [11].
The effectiveness of agriculture in obtaining optimal production is heavily reliant on climatic circumstances rather than being only influenced by the implementation of superior seeds and mechanical technologies.Climate change has the potential to adversely affect agricultural output, leading to a reduction in yields [12].Another significant factor contributing to the loss in agricultural production within the dry land sector is the diminished intensity of rainfall.The fall in agricultural output resulted in a reduction in farmers' income.The reduction in agricultural earnings represents a transient consequence, but the enduring consequence pertains to the obsolescence of dry land farming as an occupation, leading to a fall in off-farm employment opportunities.Hence, it is imperative for farmers to implement mitigation strategies that enable them to endure and restore their initial circumstances.
According to Safitri's study [13], the observed climatic change in Aceh during the period of 2001-2020 can be attributed to a notable rise in precipitation levels, with an average annual increase of 28.3 mm in the Indrapuri and 65.8 mm in the Blang Bintang.Additionally, there has been a discernible upward trend in temperature.Climate change has led to a transition in climate classification from the former climate type C, characterized by relatively high levels of precipitation, to climate type B, which denotes a wet climate.This shift signifies an augmentation in rainfall patterns that facilitates alterations in climate categorization.According to Ulfi's study [14], most sub-districts in Aceh Utara Regency are currently characterized by the arid Oldeman climatic type, accounting for 99.99% of the area.This dominance will persist over the next two decades, ranging from 95.26% to 97.11%.The inability to alter the prevalence of the arid climate classification in Aceh Utara Regency persists despite forecasts indicating the occurrence of more rainy months in the forthcoming period.

Rainfall
The potential of adaptation to a dynamic environment is considerable in addressing climate change, as it can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and enhance the associated advantages, hence minimizing the occurrence of negative consequences [15].Numerous solutions exist that can yield positive effects on both the short-term and long-term scales of settlement.Nevertheless, there exist numerous deficiencies and constraints in its implementation and efficacy.This phenomenon gives rise to varying adaptability capabilities depending on geographical locations, countries, and socio-economic groupings.The districts of Aceh Besar and Aceh Utara are one area that experiences the impacts of climate variability and exhibits varying levels of susceptibility and resilience.These districts are also recognized as the primary paddy-producing regions within the province of Aceh.

Materials and methods
This study was conducted in Aceh Besar and Aceh Utara Districts.This study focuses on how households that raise paddy are affected by climate change.Purposive sampling was used as the sampling strategy in this study.It is a sampling technique that is carried out based on the researcher's concerns, is carefully selected, has specific criteria following research demands, and is readily available to the researcher.In this approach, the sample selection process is conducted randomly.Data will be obtained through involving interviews with sample farmer paddy.Limited interviews and discussions will also involve policymakers in the paddy sector, The technique used is simple random sampling.This research uses a quantitative and qualitative approach.This study uses Livelihood Index analysis (LVI).

Livelihood Index
The Livelihood Index (LVI) assessment serves as an analytical instrument for assessing the degree of vulnerability experienced by farming households due to climate variability [16].The LVI calculations used in this work are utilized to ascertain the many components and sub-components that contribute to exposure resulting from climate variability.Each individual sub-component contributes equally to the overall index, regardless of the fact that each main component may have different sub-components.Once the value of the sub-component has been determined, the subsequent step involves determining the value of the main component, utilizing the prescribed formula: Information: Md : Principal component values for farmer households Indexsd : Index of sub-components n : Total of Sub-component The last step is to determine the LVI value of each farmer household using the formula: The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is assigned a numerical scale ranging from 0, representing the lowest level of susceptibility, to 1, indicating the highest level of risk.

Characteristics of Respondents
This study aims to delineate the demographic profile of paddy farmer participants in Aceh Province, focusing on variables such as age, educational attainment, total dependents, farming experience, land area, and primary source of income.The findings of the demographic attributes of the participants in this research are presented as follows:

The Vulnerability of Paddy Farmer Households
Vulnerability is a concept that refers to how vulnerable society is to experiencing stress and crises due to certain factors such as climate change.Vulnerability quantification indicators provide the ongoing monitoring of vulnerability within a specific context, enabling the identification of processes that contribute to vulnerability.These indicators can be utilized to prioritize tactics aimed at reducing vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions within social and ecological environments [17].categories: exposure, adaptive capability, and sensitivity.The exposure value pertains to the level of exposure to various dangers present at the research site, specifically encompassing factors such as fluctuations in weather conditions, such as light rain, and the extent of farmers' awareness regarding climate change.Adaptive capacity is effectively responding to and managing a specific threat or challenge within a given context.This capacity can be examined through socio-demographic factors and institutional frameworks.Moreover, the sensitivity category measures the level of sensitivity within a specific region, encompassing factors such as food availability, water resources, public health, and land tenure [6].The process of classifying the primary constituents that contribute to the valuation of the vulnerability index, as determined by the LVI-IPCC evaluation, encompasses: 1. Exposure Exposure is a factor that contributes to the susceptibility of a region.Exposure may manifest as a durable alteration over an extended period.The exposure seen in this study can be attributed to climate change or climate variability.The observed impact within the study area can be attributed to drought conditions.This issue leads to financial losses for farmers while also rendering them susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, particularly drought.When considering the exposure value, the vulnerability value for Aceh Utara is determined to be 0.53%, whereas for Aceh Besar, it is 0.58%.It also means that the Aceh Besar region is more susceptible to drought.

Sensitivity
Sensitivity can be defined as the degree to which a system can effectively address vulnerabilities.The manifestation of sensitivity can be either positive or negative.The study found that the level of sensitivity among farmers in the Aceh Besar area was comparatively lower than that observed in the Aceh Utara area.It implies that the Aceh Utara region has a higher sensitivity or susceptibility to occurring vulnerabilities.

Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity refers to the inherent capability of an organism or system to adjust and respond effectively to changes in its surrounding environment.The comparative analysis reveals that the adaptive capability in the Aceh Besar area is comparatively lower than that observed in the North Aceh region.Consequently, farmers in the Aceh Besar area exhibit a higher resilience and adaptability towards climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on Farmers
The agricultural sector is subject to two distinct categories of climate change impacts: biophysical and socio-economic impacts.These categories encompass both direct and indirect consequences [18].The biophysical implications encompass a range of physiological effects on many ecosystem components, such as plants, forests, and cattle.These effects manifest in terms of quantity and quality, leading to changes in vegetation composition, higher occurrences of weed and disease disturbances, and alterations in spatial and temporal patterns.The rise in sea levels and the influence on sanitation systems are also part of the biophysical consequences.The socio-economic ramifications encompass a range of consequences, including diminished productivity and production, a decline in the agricultural sector's gross domestic product (GDP), fluctuations in prices on global markets, alterations in the geographical distribution of trade regimes, a rise in the number of individuals experiencing food insecurity, as well as increased migration and civil unrest [19], [20].The following table presents the various effects of climate change experienced.The table illustrates that farmers are experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, particularly in agricultural activities.The most significant impact is observed in the increased frequency of droughts on agricultural land.This phenomenon has been observed in the two districts examined in this study.One potential factor contributing to recurrent droughts is cultivating paddy varieties not well-suited to prevailing water conditions and soil types.This mismatch between the chosen paddy varieties and the environmental characteristics might lead to premature mortality of paddy plants.

Conclusions
The results of this study indicate that based on the vulnerability index derived from LVI-IPCC calculations, Aceh Utara farming households are more susceptible to climate change than Aceh Besar.Regarding exposure, Aceh Besar exhibits a higher susceptibility to drought than Aceh Utara.The primary climatic phenomenon that significantly affects agricultural activities for paddy farmers is the increased frequency of periods of drought on agricultural land.
Recommendations for the future entail the imperative for governmental involvement in disseminating knowledge and information to agricultural practitioners regarding climate change.This measure is crucial to ensure that farmers possess a comprehensive understanding of climate change, enabling them to effectively mitigate associated risks and devise suitable adaptation strategies that safeguard against the detrimental impacts of climate change.
of the sub-component Mdi : Principal component values for farm households  −   = (  −   )   (4) Information: LVI -IPPCd : LVI for farmer households stated using the framework IPCC vulnerability e : Calculation of exposure score (change due to climate variability) a : calculation of adaptive capacity score (average weight of socio-demographic scores, network social, and formal institutions) s : sensitivity score calculation (capital, damage)

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. LVI-IPCC value of farmers in aceh besar and aceh utara districts.

Table 1 .
Category and main component livelihood vulnerability indeks.

Table 2 .
Respondent characteristics of paddy farmer in aceh besar and aceh utara district.

Table 3 .
Livelihood vulnerability index of paddy farmer households.

Table 3 .
Percentage of farmers affecting climate change.