Urban-Rural Transformation and Urban Growth Scenario Using Cellular Automata in Lebak District - Banten Province

The development of Lebak District has been significant during the previous ten years, with the impact of urbanization, changing the community’s physical, social, and economic shape. The construction of the Serang-Panimbang toll road, which facilitates access to the Metropolitan City of DKI Jakarta, has rapidly transformed Lebak District, which indicates an urban-rural transformation. This study aims to see how rural-urban transformation occurs in Lebak District and to create a scenario of urban development in Lebak District in 2030. Assessment of the level and pattern of transformation based on physical, social, and economic aspects using geographic information system (GIS) applications is conducted. This research uses cellular automata to create urban development scenarios in Lebak District in 2030. The results of this study indicate that the urban-rural transformation in Lebak District occurred due to the influence of urbanization and the construction of a toll road that connects Lebak District with the metropolitan city of Jakarta. Lebak District has four development areas. First is the urban agglomeration of Rangkasbitung, the hub of administration and economy. Second, coastal development areas are located in the southern region of Lebak District. The third strategic development area is the toll road integration area, with a development plan for an integrated industrial region. The fourth location has modest development and is located in terrain with limited accessibility. The results of urban development scenarios using cellular automata show that the development of the Serang-Panimbang toll road led to an increase in urban growth by 21% in 2030.


Introduction
Urbanization, in addition to increasing the population in urban areas, also entails the transformation of an agricultural-based rural economy into an industrial-based urban economy and ruralurban migration [1][2][3][4].Urbanization can also be seen as a spatial transformation, with people moving from rural to urban areas [5][6][7].Population expansion and fast agglomeration will increase the demand for transportation infrastructure [6,8].On the other hand, population expansion and rapid population agglomeration will raise transportation infrastructure requirements [9].Transportation infrastructure is closely related to the economic development of a city [10,11].In general, urban areas will expand according to the pattern of roads connecting with other cities.This urbanization process can transform 2 rural into urban activities, urban area expansion, and rural-urban migration that causes a region's physical, social, and economic transformation [12][13][14].
Usually, areas that have a stronger attraction to visit will turn faster into urban areas [8].Urbanization will increase and concentrate the urban population, increasing the demand for transportation infrastructure as public infrastructure.Also, developing transportation infrastructure will encourage population movement to urban areas [6,15].The transformation that occurs cannot only focus on urban physical concentration, but rural areas must also undergo changes so that there is no bigger gap [16].
In low-middle-income (developing countries), urbanization is one of the most influential transformation processes to transform urban and environmental systems [17].As happened in Indonesia, especially in Lebak District, urbanization and transportation infrastructure influence each other.Over the last ten years, Lebak District has experienced massive growth with a lot of built-up land growth and various infrastructure developments.Among them is the construction of electric rail trains (KRL) in 2013, which encouraged the acceleration of development in the Lebak District, especially in "Kota Baru Maja."In addition, the construction of the Serang-Panimbang toll road in 2017 also increased accessibility to the Lebak District area.
In addition, in response to the construction of the Serang-Panimbang Toll Road, the Lebak District government intends to build an Industrial Designation Area (KPI), which the Ministry of Investment also promotes to accelerate growth in the Lebak District.The construction of the Serang-Panimbang Toll Road in 2017 stimulated the growth of new businesses in the Rangkasbitung Sub-district, the city center of Lebak District.In addition, in response to the construction of the Serang-Panimbang Toll Road, the Lebak District government plans the construction of an Industrial Designation Area (KPI), which is also encouraged by the Ministry of Investment to encourage the acceleration of development in the Lebak District.If not controlled, the higher level of urbanization due to this infrastructure development will cause a gap between urban and rural areas [12].
Several previous studies have explained the transformation of rural-urban from various sides.Assessment of the processes and factors that influence the rural-urban transformation [18,19] is the main approach in identifying the transformation level of the rural-urban phenomena [12,20,21].These studies entirely analyze the rural-urban transformation taking place in China as the reference.Meanwhile, research on urban development modeling [22] rarely links with the process of rural-urban transformation.Furthermore, there is no research about rural-urban transformation and modeling in the Lebak District.
This study aims to see how rural-urban transformation occurs in Lebak District and create a scenario of urban development in Lebak District in 2030.This study uses quantitative methods with several calculations to obtain the value of rural-urban transformation, as Yang et al. (2018) described.Then the urban growth scenario is carried out using cellular automata.The scenario used in this study assumes that toll road development does not have a significant effect because the development is not used correctly.Another assumption is that this toll road is well utilized so that it can encourage faster urban development.Based on the assumptions prepared, urban development scenarios are made to see the extent of differences in urban development between the two scenarios.

Data
Analysis of rural-urban transformation can be seen from the level of urbanization of several aspects, including physical, demographic, and economic aspects [12].These three main aspects can show how rural-urban transformation occurs in an area.Using these three aspects, an analysis was conducted to see the rural-urban transformation.Some data is required to identify the transformation in physical, demographic, and economic perspectives (see

Rural-urban transformation
The analytical technique used to measure the rate of rural-urban transformation uses the evaluation method of rural-urban transformation indicators based on three main aspects of transformation, namely physical, social, and economic.The calculation method for the evaluation of this transformation indicator can be seen in Table 4.The calculation of each aspect of transformation is carried out for each sub-district administrative area with data units using data units for each village per sub-district area.The calculation of the ruralurban transformation rate based on these three aspects of transformation is formulated as follows: ) 2 Equation 1 Rural-Urban Transformation Rate Based on Aspects of Transformation

Urban growth scenario
This analysis aims to see land use development using several variables, including population density, proximity to roads, distance to toll gates, and the direction of the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) of Lebak District.This Modelling scenario uses multiple scenarios (see Figure 1).The first scenario employs the direction of industrial estate and toll road development; the second scenario simply uses toll road development.This analysis uses the cellular automata method to examine the land use change scenario in Lebak District, aiming at seeing the land change trend using historical data.The urban development model must also be configured spatially and temporally [23].The distance between the start and end time is equal to the distance for projections of urban development to obtain more accurate findings.Result and Discussion

Rural-Urban Transformation Level Based on Physical Aspects
Analysis of the level of rural-urban transformation based on physical aspects was carried out to see how the level of urbanization level of physical aspects in Lebak District.This analysis was carried out by calculating the level of land urbanization that occurred in 2010 and 2020.The analysis of physical aspects from 2010 to 2020 showed an increase in urban built-up land by 2.712 Ha (see Table 1).This significant change in built-up land occurred especially at the nodes of activity in Lebak District, especially in the urban area of Rangkasbitung District, which experienced an increase in built-up land of more than 500 Ha in 10 years.In addition, at other growth points, there are also quite exciting developments, including in the coastal area of Lebak District, which is one of the large fishing centers and a reasonably popular tourism area.The development of constructed land in coastal areas is also relatively rapid, whereas, in urban areas, there has been a change in the land of at least 500 hectares in the last ten years.In addition, massive development is also seen in the Kota Baru Maja area, one of the ten new cities planned by the government.This area became the new growth center in Lebak District that experienced at least an increase in built-up land of more than 400 Ha.Based on the results of this analysis, the growth of built-up land in urban areas is developing quite massively, in which urban agglomeration area of Rangkasbitung Sub-district is undergoing very high transformation, especially in its urban center area (see Figure 2).This occurred because of the many developments in the Lebak District and the emergence of various new businesses in the Lebak District, especially in the Rangkasbitung area.In addition to the urban area of Rangkasbitung Sub-district, other activity centers have undergone a high transformation.Among them is the Kota Baru Maja area, the center of new independent settlements on the border between Lebak District and Greater Jakarta.Also, in the southern area of Lebak District, namely in the coastal area, it has experienced considerable development.This coastal area serves as a significant center of fishery activities in the Lebak District and a tourism area.

Rural-Urban Transformation Level Based on Demographic Aspects
Analysis of the level of rural-urban transformation based on demographic aspects was carried out to see the level of urbanization of demographic aspects or urban levels from demographic aspects in Lebak District.This analysis was carried out by calculating the level of population urbanization that occurred in 2010 and 2020.Based on data from the population census results in 2010 and 2020, the population living in the urban area of Lebak District increased more than three times from 2010, or the overall proportion of the population of urban areas in 2020 increased by around 30% from 2010 (see Table 2).In the demographic aspect as seen in Figure 3, Rangkasbitung area as the main center of activity of the Lebak District, has the highest population density compared to other regions.Besides that, it has also undergone a high demographic transformation.In this regard, this region will develop and change faster than other regions.Areas that have experienced a high level of transformation are the center of activity, such as the Rangkasbitung area, which is the administrative and economic center, then the Maja area, which is a new growth area with the existence of Kota Baru Maja, then in coastal areas that are growing quite rapidly with good tourism and fisheries activities.
The level of transformation from the demographic aspect can be observed in Lebak District, especially in the Rangkasbitung area, which has increased quite significantly and showed a high level of transformation.This is also encouraged by various facilities in the Rangkasbitung area so that the increase in population is centralized in the Rangkasbitung area.This is reflected in the high growth of physical aspect.It can also be concluded that the level of population density and the level of social transformation in the region is considerable.

Rural-Urban Transformation Level Based on Economic Aspects
Analysis of the level of rural-urban transformation based on demographic aspects was carried out to see how the level of urbanization of economic aspects or urban level from economic aspects in Lebak District (Figure 4).This analysis was carried out by calculating the level of economic urbanization that occurred in 2010 and 2020.Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency and the Population and Civil Registration Office in Lebak District (see Table 3), there was an increase in the tertiary sector workforce and a decrease in the primary and secondary sectors.The number of workers in the tertiary sector has increased quite rapidly, especially in the Cibadak Sub-district, which has experienced an increase in the labor force of more than 8 thousand people.In line with the increase in the population of Cibadak Sub-district, which counts more than 12 thousand people.In addition to the Cibadak Subdistrict area, several other sub-districts also experienced an increase in tertiary sector workers, namely Rangkasbitung Sub-district and Warunggunung Sub-district, which experienced an increase of more than 2 thousand people.This happens in line with the amount of land turned into commercial land.In line with the previous analysis, a high transformation occurred in the primary activity nodes in Lebak District (see Figure 3).Among them are the Rangkasbitung Sub-district area, which is the primary node of activities in Lebak District; the Kota Baru Maja area, which is also a new growth center in Lebak District, as well as in coastal areas, which is the center of tourism and fisheries activities, experiencing a high level of transformation.An exciting transition is observed in economic transformation analysis, where economic changes do not pass through the industrialization phase as usually occurs in many regions.In Lebak District, most people immediately move towards the tertiary sector, which is dominated by workers engaged in services and trade.
This presents an interesting case, considering that an industrialization phase is quite prominent in various regions.There is also a considerable possibility that the industrialization phase in Lebak District will only begin when the industrial estate development plan is implemented.Meanwhile, from 2018 until present in Lebak District, especially in the primary node area of activities of Rangkasbitung District, many changes in people's lifestyles toward modernity are dominated by the emergence of many new commercial areas.

Rural-Urban Transformation Level in Lebak District
In order to determine the total degree of transformation in Lebak District, calculations were made using the outcomes of the earlier examination of the level of change of each aspect (see Equation 1).The results of this analysis will illustrate how the level of development of urban areas in Lebak District is based on the transformation of physical, demographic, and economic aspects.The results of the analysis of the rural-urban transformation level that has been carried out show harmonious results where a high level of transformation occurs at the nodes of activity in the Lebak District.Figure 5 shows that almost all urban villages that have undergone high transformation are in areas traversed by major transportation routes.This shows that besides the central activity area undergoing high transformation, areas with accessibility to infrastructure are essential aspects of this transformation process.The fastest transformation in Lebak District is in centers of activity that have high attractiveness and are along transportation routes.This is in line with what is explained in article [8] that areas that have high attractiveness will more quickly change to urban areas.As explained in articles [10,11], transportation infrastructure is closely related to the economic development of a city.It is evident in Lebak District that urban development occurs along transportation routes.

Urban Growth Scenario
The urban growth scenario is carried out because the development of toll roads and industrial designation areas can significantly drive urban growth in Lebak District, provided policymakers respond to it well.However, if the reaction to this growth is unfavorable, the development plan for toll highways and industrial zones might also not have an impact on urban development in Lebak District.In order to present a general overview of how urban expansion in the Lebak District would take place with the construction of toll highways and industrial designation areas, an analysis of the urban growth scenario has been conducted.In this regard, the results of this scenario can be used as a consideration in developing areas in Lebak District, especially in responding to the development of toll roads and industrial designation area plans.Since 2000 there has been at least ± 9000 Ha of built-up land growth (see Figure 7).As previously explained, the growth of built-up land occurs in activity centers in Lebak District, especially in the Rangkasbitung area, which has a pattern of expansion to the periphery and further strengthens the urban core of Rangkasbitung (see Figure 6).The first stage of the analysis of the urban growth scenario is carried out by calibrating the cellular automata model that will be used for projections in 2030.This calibration is carried out by projecting a land use change in 2020 (see Figure 8) using data from 2000 and 2010 which is then validated using actual data in 2020.The comparison between actual land use in 2020 and projections in 2020 is not too different (see Figure 9).The results of the validation of the projection model that has been carried out obtained the best model with a kappa index value of 0.89248 (see Figure 10), which means that this model can be used for urban development projections in 2030.This projection model is used to estimate urban growth in 2030 utilizing two scenarios since it is considered to be reliable with a kappa value level of more than 0.5.The first scenario is urban development without responding to toll road development policies and industrial estate development.The second urban development scenario responds to toll road development policies and industrial estate development.Based on the analysis, from 2000 to 2020, there continued to be an increase in built-up land; a very rapid increase occurred in the period 2010 to 2020, which increased to more than 6.000 hectares (see Figure 12).The projection results obtained in the first scenario (see Figure 11 e), considered urban growth, do not respond to the policy of toll road development and industrial estate development policy.There is an increase in built-up land of almost 2.000 hectares, with the development of built-up land spreading from urban centers to peripheral areas.In this first scenario, the urban center area of Rangkasbitung strengthened quite rapidly, and the leading road network traversed several areas.
In the second scenario (see Figure 11 f), the development of developed land strengthened very rapidly in the Central area of Rangkasbitung District and its surroundings because it was influenced by excellent accessibility due to the existence of toll roads and also traversed by the leading road network that had existed from the beginning.In addition, the area around Rangkasbitung Sub-district is included in the industrial development plan, so it is a strong enough driver for developing developed land in the Rangkasbitung area.So that the Urban area of Rangkasbitung Sub-district, which has become the center of activity from the beginning, has become increasingly dense with built-up land.The development of developed land develops faster in the urban area of Rangkasbitung District because it is the center of various activities and is an area that has the highest level of accessibility.
Based on the projected results of urban development scenarios using scenarios one and two, urban development or the development of built land, the change is not as significant as that from 2010 to 2020, when the development of built land from 2010 to 2020 reached more than 6.000 Ha.On the other hand, the projection results using scenario 1 are only 2.000 Ha, and in scenario two, it is only 4000 Ha.Although the development is not as significant as before, the development in Lebak District based on the results of projection analysis shows the occurrence of inequality in urban development.The projection results of both scenarios show that urban development in Lebak District is more focused on the northern region.As for the central and southern regions, urban development is not too large.So, this further strengthens that in Lebak District, there is inequality or disparity in urban development.

Study findings
The results of the analysis that has been carried out on urban development in Lebak District can be divided into four zones.The division of this zone is carried out by looking at several aspects, including existing strategic policies, the level of physical transformation, the level of social transformation, the level of economic transformation, and the projection of urban development.The division of this zone shows how developments have occurred in several areas in Lebak District (see Figure 13).13 First is the central activity zone (zone 1), which includes the Rangkasbitung District and surrounding areas, then the Maja New Town Area.This area also intersects with the development zone where in this zone there are many strategic policies in the regional spatial plan (RTRW) of Lebak District, including the development of toll roads, industrial estate development plans, and the development of "Kota Baru Maja".So that in this zone, urban development is very massive because of various strategic policies in the zone.
Then zone 2 consists of an urban development zone in the coastal area of Lebak District, precisely in the southern region.This zone develops by relying on local potential, namely beach tourism, which attracts many tourists, especially for the tourist areas "Bagedur Beach" and "Sawarna Beach," which will be crowded with visitors yearly.Zone 3 has several strategic development plans, including developing the Serang-Panimbang toll road connecting Jakarta to the Tanjung Lesung tourism area.Then there is also a plan to allocate industrial estates along the toll road corridor to help the development of areas in the Lebak District.Lastly, Zone 4 is the zone with the slowest development, even stagnant.This is because the zone is in a mountainous area dominated by protected functions, so the development is not as fast as in other zones with flatter soil contours with cultivation functions.
The analysis of the level of transformation to the division of development zones shows results that lead to urban development in Lebak District experiencing disparities between the northern region, the urban center, and the mountainous area, which is a protected function area.This is not good for the development of an area.If only one area develops, all activities will be concentrated on the area, which will cause various urban problems in the future.So, it is necessary to develop strategic plans for areas far from urban centers by utilizing the local potential of each region.
The rural-urban transformation in Lebak Regency showed different stages, compared with the previous studies [12,14] The transformation in general, started with the industrial activities which attracted people to come and to stay, then increasing built-up land.However, in case in Lebak Regency, the transformation occurred without facing the industrialization phase, it directly jumped into the third phase.As shown in Table 3, labor changes in the secondary sector actually decreased from 2010 to 2020, and labor in the tertiary increased significantly.The rural-urban transformation in Lebak District is driven by various strategic policies such as constructing electric railways, toll roads, "Kota Baru Maja" development policies, and industrial estate plans.It can be concluded that urban development in Lebak Regency is strongly encouraged by various existing strategic policies without going through the industrialization phase.

Conclusion
Urban development in Lebak District, based on the results of the analysis conducted from 2010 to 2020, continues to rely on the central area of economic and government activities in the north.At the same time, other areas far from the center of economic and government activities can be said to develop slowly.Urban development in Lebak District showed disparities or gaps.In those areas, far from the center of development, activities are very static and tend not to develop, especially in rural areas.This disparity will be apparent, especially in the western area dominated by the Protected Zone.Such developments, if continued, will cause even more significant gaps, coupled with the current strategic policies focusing on the Rangkasbitung area, so that development in this area is predicted to be faster.On the other hand, other areas will not receive adequate regional growth because they are located distant from the hub of activity and development zones.

1, Table 2, and Table 3).Table 1 .
Lebak District Built-up Land Area Based on Area Status 2010 and 2020 in Hectares

Table 2 . Number of Lebak District Population Based on Area Status in 2010 and 2020 2010 2020 Sub-districts Status Total 2010 Sub-districts Status Total 2020 Rural Urban
Source: 2010 and 2020 Population Census, processed by the author 2022