Enhancing Decision-Making for Sustainable Agriculture and Tourism Development through System Dynamics and GIS Integration: A Study of Jenawi District

As one of the districts that have an important role for Karanganyar Regency in agriculture and tourism, Jenawi District is a producer of 18 out of the 22 agricultural commodities in Karanganyar Regency, Indonesia. In addition, Jenawi District also has various natural tourism objects such as caves, valleys, waterfalls, springs, and other tourism objects. However, the potential of agriculture and tourism has not been able to improve community welfare because there is no policy to encourage the agricultural and tourism sectors in Jenawi District. Therefore, this study aims to formulate alternative policy models in the agriculture and tourism sectors in Jenawi District. This research uses quantitative research methods using primary and secondary data types, where the data collection techniques used are observation, interviews, FGDs, literature reviews, and GIS analysis. GIS analysis enabled spatial data integration and visualization, facilitating the identification of patterns, relationships, and potential areas for agriculture and tourism development. The analysis method used is a dynamic system method that uses the causal loop diagram analysis technique. The analysis results found that the dynamic system model in Jenawi District that has been designed is able to work properly with high accuracy levels. There are differences between with and without policies, especially in the incentives used, which have significant differences. With the implementation of policies in Jenawi District, there is a difference in income results in the agricultural sector reaching 20%-27%, and in the tourism sector reaching 80%.


Introduction
Changes in public development policies will have an impact on social change (people's welfare) [1].For example, phenomena in various developing countries including Indonesia such as unemployment, poverty, social inequality, scarcity of social services are major social problems from the past until now.One form of effective policy to reduce and overcome this phenomenon is the implementation of poverty reduction policies listed in the regional regulation of Karanganyar Regency no.11 of 2017 concerning poverty reduction which includes Family-based Poverty Reduction programs; community empowerment-based Poverty Reduction program; Poverty Reduction program based on microeconomic business empowerment and other programs.These policies and programs are in practice able to reduce poverty, which according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics Karanganyar in 2021 there was a decrease of 17% in the number of poor people in Karanganyar Regency.Based on this, it can be concluded that in the context of national development, public policy is a tool, mechanism, and system that can direct and translate development goals and public or community welfare [2].
Intanpari is an acronym for a region that has a development concept in three sectors, namely industry, agriculture, and tourism.The three sectors are the driving sectors of the regional economy intended to improve the community's welfare.The development of the industrial sector in the form of large or small industries, areas with leading agricultural products, and the existence of tourism in a place can become one of attractive tourism destinations.One region with the intanpari concept in Indonesia is Karanganyar Regency.The policies that are applied in optimizing intanpari activities in Karanganyar Regency are contained in chapter 5 point (10) of the [3], namely in the form of a strategic area designation that facilitates the spatial needs of the three sectors, namely, to establish areas prioritized as the development of industrial allocation areas, agropolitan areas, as well as establishing strategic tourist attractions in the east and increasing man-made and historical tourism activities in the west of the region.
One of the districts that has the potential for intanpari activities in Karanganyar Regency is Jenawi District.Jenawi District is the producer of 18 out of 22 agricultural products in Karanganyar Regency.Jenawi District produces paddy rice, sweet potatoes, cassava, corn, 13 types of vegetable crops, and 17 fruit crops, with the largest agricultural commodity according to the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Karanganyar Regency in 2021 is sweet potatoes (31,523.64 tons) and the largest plantation commodity is bananas (29,993 tons), then in the tourism sector, tourism objects in Jenawi District are dominated by natural attractions such as caves, valleys, waterfalls, spring, and other tours.In 2018, Cetho Temple became the destination with the second highest number of visitors in Karanganyar Regency with 87,465 visitors, while the Jumog Teak waterfall tour was in 5th position with 47,265 visitors.However, with such great natural potential, Jenawi District still has problems in terms of community welfare.According to the Badan Pusat Statistik, the amount of data on the prewelfare population and welfare 1 in Jenawi District is 1,070 residents or 12.7% of the total population of Jenawi District and the income of Jenawi District residents is generally in the range of IDR 1,500,000 -IDR 2,000,000 or below the Karanganyar Regency MSE which is IDR 2,207,483.64[4].
The existence of community welfare problems in Jenawi District is due to the inaccurate formulation of policies in utilizing the potential that exists in the district.According to the RTRW Kabupaten Karanganyar 2012-2032 chapters 31, 33, and 38, it is stated that Jenawi District is included in the category of development of food crop areas, horticultural crops, and tourism areas.However, in the revised program matrix of the RTRW Kabupaten Karanganyar 2012-2032, only 2 policies related to tourism were found and no programs were found that encourage the agricultural sector in Jenawi District.In fact, there are still many problems related to tourism and agriculture in Jenawi District that have not received attention from the local government.For example, there is a safety issue on the route or road to the Cetho Temple tourist attraction that can endanger visitors to the tourism attraction and the problem of the distribution chain of agricultural products which is too long, thus affecting the low prices received by farmers during the harvest season.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formulate alternative policy models in the agriculture and tourism sectors in Jenawi District.One of the tools to determine a good policy is to use a dynamic system approach.System dynamics is a method that can function as a structure shaper and estimate the behavior and feedback of the system in an integrated [5].The application of the system dynamics model has been carried out by several researchers to formulate a policy recommendation, which can be seen in the simulation of public policy formulation as it aims to monitor various complex structures based on identified phenomena and can see changes in policy behavior and provide feedback flows to design policy formulations [6].Thus, the application of the system dynamics model is suitable to be applied as a decision-making tool to determine policies that can guide and translate development goals and have the maximum impact on the development of the agricultural and tourism sectors to improve community welfare in Jenawi District.
One tool for formulating a good policy model is to use a dynamic systems approach.System dynamics is a method that can function as a structure shaper and estimate system behavior and feedback in an integrated manner [5].The application of system dynamics models has been carried out by several researchers to formulate policy recommendations, which can be seen in public policy formulation simulations because they aim to monitor various complex structures based on identified phenomena and can see changes in behavior policy and provide feedback flow to design policy formulation [6].Thus, the preparation of a system dynamics model is suitable to be applied as a decision-making tool to determine policies that are able to guide and translate development goals and have a maximum impact on the development of the agricultural and tourism sectors in improving the welfare of the community in Jenawi Regency.

Data & Methods
This research was conducted in Jenawi District, Karanganyar Regency, Centra Java Province.Jenawi District has a total area of 5.608,275 hectares and has potential in the agriculture and tourism sectors.This research uses a quantitative research method to analyze the potential and problems of the agricultural sector and tourism sector in Jenawi District and to formulate alternative policy models in the agriculture and tourism sectors in Jenawi District.This research uses primary data and secondary data collected through observation, interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), literature study, and GIS analysis.These data consist of land use maps of Jenawi District in 2010 and 2020 which are sourced from KLHK and the digitation results, maps of tourism locations in Jenawi District which are sourced from Google MyMaps, the data of Jenawi District's agricultural land area, the data of agricultural commodity selling prices, the data of agricultural seed and fertilizer purchase prices, the data of total tourism visitors in Jenawi District, the price of tourist tickets in Jenawi District, Karanganyar Regency's Minimum Wages for 2021, also tax data in Karanganyar Regency.
The data analysis method used is a dynamic system method that focuses on the goal of increasing understanding of how behavior emerges from the policy structure in the [7].This understanding is very important in designing effective policies [8] The analysis technique used in the dynamic system method is namely the causal loop diagram analysis technique which is carried out with the Vensim application to analyze policy linkages with the potential and problems of the agriculture and tourism sector in Jenawi District and to formulate alternative policy models in the development of the agriculture and tourism sector in Jenawi District.The steps of the analysis in this research can be seen in Figure 1.

Profile of Jenawi District
Jenawi District is a district in Karanganyar Regency, Central Java, which is located at the foot of Mount Lawu with an altitude between 407-1,100 meters above sea level.This area is divided into nine villages, namely Balong, Seloromo, Menjing, Lempong, Gumeng, Sidomukti, Trengguli, Lempong, and Jenawi Villages, with the district government center being in Balong Village (Figure 2).Jenawi District has a total area of 5.608,275 hectares, the village that has the largest area, namely Gumeng Village with an area of 1.501,667 hectares and Anggrasmanis Village with 818,978 hectares.Meanwhile, the village with the smallest area, Menjing Village, is 378,251 hectares.The area bordering Jenawi District to the north is Sragen Regency, to the south is Ngargoyoso District, to the east is East Java Province, and to the west is Kerjo District.

Land Use of Jenawi District
Community activities are increasing over time which drives the need for land.In line with this, a space is needed to accommodate the community's activities.Changes in land use from non-built-up area to built-up area also occurred in Jenawi District.This can be seen in the maps of land use change in 2010 and 2020 (Figure 3).
Based on figure 3, land use in Jenawi District in 2010 and 2020 has changed.Especially if we look at the built-up area which has increased in 2020 when compared to 2010.This change occurred evenly in all villages with an increase of 2.5 times over ten years from the built-up area in 2010 which was originally 313 hectares to 802 hectares in 2010-2020.One of the reasons for these increases is the increased population which has resulted in the demand for land to meet the needs for housing, facilities, and infrastructure increasing every year.This can threaten agricultural land which is converted into non-agricultural land in the form of settlements.Therefore, efforts are needed to control land conversion and protect agricultural land in Jenawi District.

Availability of Attractions and Supporting Facilities
Jenawi District has various potentials, one of the potentials is in the tourism sector, because of its location on a plateau, existing tourist objects take advantage of these conditions, so that tourist objects are dominated by natural attractions such as waterfalls, caves, valleys, sendang, and one cultural tour, namely temple.In organizing tourism activities, facilities, and infrastructure in Jenawi District are needed to support these activities.Elements related to the implementation of tourism activities, namely 4A (Attraction, Accessibility, Accommodation, Amenities) [9].The map of the distribution of tourist objects and tourism-supporting facilities can be seen in Figure 4.While the supporting facilities are in the form of accessibility, accommodation, and amenities.The accessibility element in Jenawi District is shown by the Bus Terminal located in Balong Village.The terminal has one active route, namely to Sragen Regency which passes several villages in Jenawi District and other districts in Sragen Regency.This tourist attraction is on a neighborhood road with a narrow road width so large vehicles like buses cannot pass it.The existence of these bus routes can provide transportation services for tourists to reach tourist objects.However, limited routes, fleets, and the condition of damaged and steep access roads in several locations are obstacles to accessibility for tourism.Accommodation elements in Jenawi District are in the form of villas, homestays, and hotels which are only located in two villages, namely Gumeng and Anggrasmani Villages and the accommodation capacity for lodging is still low.Currently, there are at least 10 inns.With these facilities, it can support tourism and increase the income of local residents because they use people's houses to be used as lodging.
Jenawi District already has enough trade and service facilities that can become amenities in tourism activities, such as 92 food stalls, 195 shops, and 2 markets.Judging from their distribution, these facilities are evenly distributed throughout the villages of the Jenawi District.Its scattered locations make it easy for visitors to reach these facilities.Meanwhile, self-service facilities, restaurants, and cafes are not yet available in Jenawi District, so additional trade and service facilities are needed to extend the visiting time of tourists.From these four elements, there are still deficiencies and the unavailability of supporting facilities for tourism activities.So, it is necessary to develop new activities and add facilities in Jenawi District, such as lodging, trade and services, and also transportation.

Dinamic System Modelling
According to Heinz Ealau and Kenneth Prewitt (1973) in (Agustino, 2008) policy is a prevailing decree characterized by consistent and repetitive behavior, both from those who make it and those who obey it [10] [11].Likewise, the dynamic system model is continuous and allows us to understand the behavior and evolution of the system more deeply, providing insight into prediction, stability, and order in the system [6].Therefore, the application of dynamic systems in formulating a policy is considered in line and can produce an optimal decision [12].
In this case, the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) model, which is one of the dynamic system models, will be more appropriate to use than the input-process-output model commonly used in solving organizational and management problems.Through the CLD model, all components or variables involved both internal and external to the system in question are identified (Figure 5).The more tourists who visit a destination, the higher the potential income from the tourism industry in that location.Tourists spend money on accommodation, food, transportation, attraction entrance tickets, and various other activities, which contribute to local income.In the context of policy formulation in increasing tourism in Jenawi District using a causal loop diagram, some of the most influential variables and forming a causal relationship on tourism income in Jenawi District taken from [13] and adjusted include accomodation, amenities, attraction, and accessibility (Figure 6).Furthermore, in the context of agriculture in Jenawi district, variables that build sustainable relationships in influencing and being influenced by farmers' profits, consist of income and expenditure.In terms of income, there are several variables that affect income in the agricultural sector in Jenawi District, agriculture in Jenawi District consists of vegetables, fruits, and biopharmaceuticals.The three types of agriculture are influenced again by several sub-variables such as productivity which will be greatly influenced by crop yields and land availability, then there is also a distribution channel that will greatly affect the profits of farmers.In the expenditure variable, there are several influential sub-variables, namely expenditures in the form of farmers' operational capital in planting such as agricultural equipment, fertilizer, and seed prices to maintain the quality of agricultural products, as well as agricultural labor costs or honorariums from farm workers.

Dinamic System Simulation
The simulation was carried out by taking the starting point of 2023 (Figure 7).The interval of 2024-2043 is a prediction using the rate of tourism visitors in Jenawi District, then starting in 2024 simulations will be carried out by applying various appropriate policy scenarios and influencing existing sub-variables.The following is the research scenario used in this study (5A element enhancement): ( 1   This simulation in the agricultural sector is carried out by taking the starting point of 2023.The interval of 2024-2043 is data obtained using the distribution and assumptions of agricultural sector in Jenawi District, then starting in 2024 simulations will be carried out by applying various appropriate policy scenarios and influencing existing sub-variables.The following is the research scenario used in this study: (1) Sustainable food agricultural land (LP2B in Indonesia) is a field of agricultural land that is designated to be protected and developed consistently to produce staple foods for national food independence, resilience, and sovereignty.In this model, agricultural land must be designated as a protected function or if there is a conversion of 1 ha of land, it is necessary to open new agricultural land of 1 ha; (2) Distribution flow strategy policy, according to [14], the establishment of distribution channel chains is very important because this can affect the smooth running of sales, profit levels, capital, risks and so on.Distribution channels are generally for manufacturing production results, in simulating the nature of this dynamic system, to achieve optimal results it is found that the marketing flow is distribution to middlemen 50%, market 30%, and processing increased added value by 20%; (3) Policy incentives subsidies for the purchase of seeds, quality seeds will determine the results of agricultural productivity, in this case the provision of quality fertilizer by the government is needed by farmers, which according to the simulation results of subsidies before 10% will optimize and increase farmers' income; and (4) According to the Decree of Perindag number 70/MPP/Kep/2/2003 dated February 11, 2003 [15] that what is meant by subsidized fertilizer is fertilizer whose procurement and distribution receive subsidies from the Government for the needs of farmers implemented on the basis of government programs.In this model, the optimal income if fertilizer prices get a subsidy from the government of 10%.

Discussion
Changes in public development policies will have an impact on social change (people's welfare) [1].This is evidenced by the dynamic system modeling in Figure 9.In our study, we tried to include  After the simulation of the dynamic system is carried out, it is found that a difference exists if the agricultural sector and the tourism sector are run naturally and with interventions in the form of policies that have been formulated.In the tourism sector, with the policies implemented according to the previous sub-chapter, there will be an increase in tourism income in Jenawi District in the range of 20-27% fluctuatively every year until 2043.In the agricultural sector, a steady increase in income will begin in 2024 by 20% and will continue to increase to 80% in 2043.
The improvement of the tourism sector cannot be separated from its constituent elements, namely accomodation, amenities, atrractions, accessibility, and ancillary.In the element Accommodation needed by tourists who are visiting tourist attractions for temporary residence so that they can rest before doing further tourist activities.thus, increasing added value and tourism revenue.By adding accommodation facilities can hold tourists to visit longer, and spending more money.From the scenario that has been made, the construction of villas/homestays around Jumog Waterfall, Sewawar Sedinding Waterfall, and Cetho Temple attractions can increase the number of tourists visiting to 180.578 visitors at these three objects.The existence of this influence, in line with research conducted, where tourism in Manado City is growing marked by the number of hotel or other lodging developments as many as 67 pieces that have an impact on the number of tourism visits in Manado City [16].
Amenities, according to (Damanik et al., 2006) amenities are infrastructure that is not directly related to tourism.Along with the needs of tourists such as restaurants, shopping places, and entertainment venues [17].Amenities will make tourists spend more funds and can be a tourist attraction.The scenario that has been prepared to improve the tourism sector in the element of amenities is the construction of restaurants around tourist attractions such as Goa Tlorong, Jumog Waterfall, Cetho Temple, Sendang Pundisari, Katresnan Valley Tourism, and Sewawar Sedinding Waterfall.The construction of restaurants as trading facilities has an impact on increasing the number of tourists.This supports the research conducted by (I Gusti Ayu, 2019).namely with the addition of facilities around the Angeri Hot Spring tourist attraction in Tabanan, the number of tourists increased from 1.335 people to 1.600 people in three months [18].
While attractions, tourist attractions are something that has unity, beauty, and value in the form of a diversity of natural, cultural, and man-made products that are the target or destination of tourist visits, tourist attractions are something that can cause attraction for tourists and are the main reason to visit tourist attractions.The increase in tourism attractions with the opening of new objects can increase the number of tourist visits, based on the scenario that has been made, namely the development of Goa Tlorong tourism, having an impact on increasing tourist visits to 5,000 visitors and the development of Pundisari increasing tourists to 16.544 visitors.This supports research by (Novia,2018) where in Tulungrejo Village there is development and development on four tourism attractions that affect the number of tourists for 9 years with a significant increase of 3 times [19].
Accessibility, according to (Susantono, 2014) that accessibility is the right to access which is a basic travel needs service [20].In this case, accessibility must be provided by the government regardless of the use of the mode of transportation provided by the community.Accessibility is one of the factors that help and facilitate the travel of tourists who will visit tourist attractions.By improving accessibility, namely the integration of public transportation to tourist attractions at Jumog Waterfall, making alternative access and integration with public transportation in Cetho Temple, Pundisari, and Katresnan Valley, as well as increasing accessibility and adding tourist routes at Sewawar Sedinding Waterfall which is a scenario for developing tourism elements that have an impact on increasing the number of tourists at these attractions.Where this is in line with research by (Ahmad Syaiful, Fafurida,2019) where the number of visitors in Lerep Tourism Village is largely determined by accessibility conditions to the object and affects business conditions and services [21].
Land conversion has long-term impacts on farmers and communities.The shrinking area of agricultural land will reduce employment opportunities for farmers and agricultural laborers and will reduce opportunities to earn income from business activities on agricultural land, for example The passing of the Regional Regulation of West Java Province Number 27 of 2010 concerning the Protection of Sustainable Food Agricultural Land (LP2B) has a strong positive spirit to be able to increase food availability and improve food security of the population in West Java by means of Controlling the rate of conversion of agricultural land and extensification of agricultural land in the region with a decrease in the conversion rate reaching 1.25% [22].This is in line with what happened in our research where with the LP2B policy, there will be a reduction in agricultural land conversion which will reduce conversion and increase agricultural yields.
Agriculture in the broadest sense is always faced with a classic problem: abundant yields fall in price and prices increase expensively when not harvesting.It is very reasonable and in accordance with the law of supply demand.Buyers basically have different characteristics of needs according to their group.Retail buyers in small numbers want a large selection of products accompanied by a good product display because this segment of buyers is very intensive in comparing one product with another.Distributors must be able to flow products to certain consumer segments efficiently.The first step that needs to be done is to identify the characteristics of each consumer segment [23], especially in the context of agriculture, sales and also the selling chain must be profitable for farmers so that the maximum profit obtained, in the model we make the optimal distribution of agricultural products is in numbers distribution to middlemen 50%, market 30%, and processing increased added value by 20%.
The policy of providing subsidies, especially fertilizer and seed subsidies which have been intended to assist farmers in providing fertilizers and seeds in superior quality but at affordable prices The government continues to try to meet the needs of fertilizers and seeds to farmers, and provide affordable prices during the planting season.Thus, farmers hope that the selling price of their production can be purchased at a high price so that their income level and welfare will increase [24].In fulfilling these efforts, the Government is required to adjust the fertilizer and seed subsidy scheme and distribute it on target.However, in its implementation, the misappropriation of this policy continues to take place such as the presence of irresponsible individuals in resale, in our research the fertilizer and seed subsidy policy will contribute directly to agricultural expenditure and productivity, so that the implementation of this policy and also the evaluation and increase of its effectiveness must also be supported by the government.In general, our research has the power in providing policy recommendations because it is carried out with measurable methods and has quantitative data, so it would be very good if it can be implemented, especially in the agricultural and tourism sectors in Jenawi District.

Conclusion
Based on the results of the research, it can answer the objectives of this study.As is known, the aim of this research is to find policies for an area using a dynamic system to increase the income and welfare of Jenawi District as seen from tourism and agricultural potential.The progress of the tourism sector cannot be separated from its constituent elements, namely accommodation, amenities, attractiveness, accessibility and support.Apart from that, agricultural progress can be seen from supply and demand.
From several simulations that have been tried above, it can be concluded that the difference between with and without a policy, especially for the incentives used, there will be a significant difference, especially in the results of agricultural and tourism income in Jenawi District.With the implementation of the policy, there will be an increase in income for the agricultural sector in the range of 20%-27% and for the tourism sector reaching 80%.
The policy adopted will also have an indirect effect on taxes, the income of the local workers, and the ability to improve operations, which in the model and simulation above can increase tax expenditure by 15%, increase workers' income by 10%, and increase operational cost expenditure by 10%.This implies that adopting the policy will be very useful both directly and indirectly.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.The Step of the Analysis (Analysis Results, 2023)

Figure 4 .
Figure 4.The Map of Tourism and Supporting Facilities (Analysis Results, 2023)

Figure 6 .
Figure 6.Agriculture Causal Loop Diagram (Analysis Results, 2023) ) The addition of tourist attractions and the construction of 2 units of restaurants in Goa Tlorong tour; (2) Integration of public transportation to tourist points, construction of villas/homestays and construction of restaurants in Jumog Waterfall tour; (3) Procurement of new/alternative access, construction of hotels/homestays, construction of restaurants, and integration with public vehicles in Cetho Temple tourism; (4) Addition of tourist attractions, addition of alternative routes, and integration with public vehicles on tourism in Pundisari; (5) Integration with public vehicles and restaurant development in Katresnan Valley Tourism; (6) Improvement of tourist accessibility, addition of tourist routes, construction of restaurants/ restaurants and construction of hotels/homestays in the tourist area of Sewawar Sedinding Waterfall.

Figure 8 .
Figure 8. Agriculture Stock Flow Diagram (Analysis Results, 2023) .1088/1755-1315/1264/1/012030 10 policies as inputs from stock flow diagrams in the agricultural sector and also the tourism sector in Jenawi District.