Development of a scientific and methodological approach to assessing losses from warfare in natural ecosystems on the territory of Ukraine

The assessment of the impact of hostilities on the environment remains an important issue for predicting changes resulting from military-technogenic activities and assessing the losses incurred by ecosystems in Ukraine. This article proposes an integrated approach for predicting the possible level of hostilities’ impact by utilizing aggregated environmental information on ecosystem composition, indicators of military-technogenic load, organization of trophic networks in relevant biogeographic zones, and biodiversity composition. The concept of environmental safety of hostilities is introduced as a projection into the military technosphere of the ecosystem sustainability concept, where the target function is the conservation of the natural biota of operational zones and areas of hostilities. The article presents a block diagram of the procedure for assessing the state of ecosystems in war zones and proposes a classification of levels of military-technogenic disturbance of natural ecosystems based on the state of edifier sinusia.


Introduction
One of the unresolved problems in the field of military ecology is the development of appropriate methods for assessing the damage caused by warfare to natural ecosystems, which is one of the major issues in this field.In Ukraine, an undeclared war with the Russian Federation is ongoing in Polissya and the southeastern industrial regions (Donetsk, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Mykolaiv).This area is a technologically advanced and industrial region of Ukraine, where pollution of the environment through the conduct of hostilities (HS) and the possible defeat of potentially hazardous objects (PHO) is directly related to the formation of a military-technogenic load (MTL) as a result of the operation and combat use of weapons systems and military equipment at the facilities of industrial-urban agglomerations and on the territory of natural ecosystems.
To conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the impact of HS on natural ecosystems in the practice of forecasting in precision military ecology, it is necessary to determine the relative importance of military-anthropogenic factors influencing the environment, which have qualitative uncertainty, and evaluate the values of the parameters of the natural system, which have quantitative certainty.Today, it is necessary to determine the key factors influencing MTL from HS in natural ecosystems.Unfortunately, the current quantitative uncertainty in 1. Differentiated consideration of the reaction of different ecosystems to the same impact of the MTL. 2. In each ecosystem, an artificial change in the environment of the abiotic environmental factors of the military natural-technogenic geosystem (MNTG), which has the greatest indication value, is adopted as criteria for assessing its changes.3. Integral assessment of the level of MTL on land and ecosystems and in general is carried out in conditional indicators on an appropriate point scale based on an assessment of quantitative data on changes in individual components of ecosystems (for example, due to the ratio of affected and unmodified ecosystem areas).4. The specificity of military ecosystems determines the development of methodological methods for assessing their ecological state.5. From the point of view of the possibilities of using empirical data in the study of the system of interaction "military-anthropogenic influence -biota reaction" to predict the state of MNTG, the idea of regulating the effect on biota through its "critical link", which can be a group of species or even one indicator species, seems expedient.
The basis of a comprehensive environmental assessment of the state of natural ecosystems is a joint analysis of biotic and abiotic environment-forming factors that characterize ecosystems in conditions of dynamic military-technogenic load from HS.It is known that a biogeocenosis, ecosystem or biological community that has existed in unchanged form for a long time has a certain intrinsic ability to withstand perturbing natural influences.This ability of the ecological system is often called "resilience" or "stability" by biologists [6].
There is an approach based on trying to link the resilience of a community with some measurable characteristics of it.Among ecologists, it is considered almost an axiom that communities which are more complex in structure and richer in the number of species are more stable [7][8][9][10].As a characteristic of community stability in biology, the information measure of diversity is most often used the Shannon and Simpson indices [11].However, the direct use of indicators of species diversity as a criterion characterizing the sustainability of ecosystems makes sense only for communities that do not have a quantitative hierarchy.Therefore, in real biogeocenoses that have a pronounced hierarchical structure, the use of diversity indicators to quantify the measure of stability is hardly justified [12].
Recent research has focused on developing comprehensive assessment procedures to evaluate the impact of warfare on natural ecosystems.One such study proposed a methodology for assessing the ecological state of ecosystems in areas affected by military activities using the structural and functional organization of biotic communities [13].The study emphasized the importance of considering the specific characteristics of different ecosystems and their responses to military-technogenic loads.Another studies proposed a methodological approach for assessing the impact includes both qualitative and quantitative indicators [5,14].The study [5] highlighted the importance of analyzing changes in vegetation cover at different spatial scales to better understand the impact of military activities on natural ecosystems.The study [15] shows a tool to monitor environmental dynamics and plan military training activities, but its limitation lies in that the obtained values of the indicator vary and are subjective to the experts' knowledge and experience.Thus, further advancing this approach is needed by developing a scientific method to derive the weights of environmental variables.
The peculiarities of the above-mentioned areas of research on the development of a method for assessing losses for the territories of hostilities require the development of comprehensive assessment procedures, for the development of which it is necessary to have reliable environmental information about the components of the ecosystems of the territories of the operational zones of HS.
The purpose of the publication is to develop a comprehensive scientific and methodological approach to assessing losses in natural ecosystems due to the influence of MTL factors during hostilities in Ukraine.Recent research in this area has emphasized the need for a differentiated approach that considers the specific characteristics of different ecosystems and their responses to MTL.This approach should include both qualitative and quantitative indicators and analyze changes in ecosystems at different spatial scales to better understand the impact of military activities on natural ecosystems.
Military Training Areas (MTAs) cover at least 2 percent of the Earth's terrestrial surface.These areas are potentially important for biodiversity conservation.The greatest challenge in managing MTAs is balancing the disturbance associated with military training and environmental values.These challenges are unique as no other nature use is managed for these types of anthropogenic disturbances in a natural setting.

Results
It should be noted that almost all the existing approaches to assessing the sustainability of ecosystems have considered this problem in natural ecosystems in relation to natural extreme actions, which for a considerable period of time are familiar to these ecosystems and very rarely are complex.The problem of the stability of ecological systems to the military-technogenic impact of the HS looks completely different.Here dealing, as a rule, with actions that are not peculiar to the natural environment, and are a complex conglomerate of mechanical, physical and chemical factors, combined in different ratios when using certain means of destruction and military equipment on the battlefield.
An equally important circumstance is that when assessing the interaction of natural and MNTG, the stability of the ecosystem has a twofold meaning.On the one hand, the stability of the ecosystem is its property, which characterizes the ability to withstand external militarytechnogenic loads.But on the other hand, if some ecosystem is resistant to a specific militarytechnogenic factor, then this factor is safe for this ecosystem.Thus, the concept of environmental safety of hostilities is a projection into the military technosphere of the concept of ecosystem sustainability.Given that the target function in studying the interaction of the military technosphere and the biosphere is the level of preservation of the natural biota of operational zones and areas of HS, then both previously mentioned concepts are tied together through the achievement of these goal, but each of them has its own purpose.
The study of the sustainability of ecosystems should quantify the permissible, according to the conditions of ecosystem conservation, the level of militarytechnogenic load, and the study of causal relationships in the process of its formation should determine the technological ways to achieve a biologically determined threshold for each military-technogenic factor.
An indicator of natural equilibrium is the ability of natural ecosystems to develop with the achievement of reaching the maximum during cyclic succession.Maintaining a HS in an ecosystem changes its abiotic component, which, through the mechanism of homeostasis, influences certain species, usually suppressing them.Therefore, the ecosystem is out of balance and, according to the principle of Le Chatelier-Brown [16], its equilibrium shifts in the direction in which the effect of external action factors and HS weakens.In practice, this means a decrease in the number of species, that is, the degradation of the biocenosis to some new, equilibrium, but lower level.Determining the mechanism of homeostasis in the presence of external action of the HS for all levels of the organization of ecosystems is of great importance for predicting its behaviour at one level or another.
According to the general ideas of classical ecology [17,18], the stability of ecosystems is associated not only with the very fact of preserving the species' composition but also with the ability to return to the primary equilibrium state after external actions [19].Thus, with regard to the specifics of the HS, the ecosystem is resistant to MTL as long as its biota retains the ability for self-healing, that is, to return to the path of evolution according to the laws of cyclical succession after the removal of the MTL.
In order to determine the degree of MTL influence factors on the environment and to develop proposals for the decision-maker, a search and development of scientifically based models and indicators for the environmental classification of MTL factors from HS maintenance in operating areas is underway [20,21].During the study of the problems of environmental assessment of MTL, a number of issues arise related to the justification of the methodology for its implementation, which is specific to the field of military ecology [22,23].
Due to the fact that in our time ecosystems are not purely natural, but naturalanthropogenic, it becomes necessary to isolate the factors of MTL in a whole group of other anthropogenic loads associated with industrial and agro-technical activities.
By projecting this condition into the military technosphere, its possible to formulate the concept of environmental safety for the operational zones of HS: hostilities are environmentally safe if the military-technogenic perturbation of the abiotic component of the ecosystem does not exceed the level at which its biota retains the ability to self-healing (that is, to return to the path of evolution according to the laws of cyclical succession after the removal of the MTL).
Thus, the stability of the ecosystem, as the ability to withstand military-technogenic pressure with a limited duration of validity (limited terms of HS), is nothing more than a biologically justified measure of the value of MTL, which, when using various types and systems of weapons and military equipment, makes combat operations environmentally safe.
But earlier it has already been emphasized that any biological restriction can perform regulatory functions in relation to the military technosphere only when it has a quantitative assessment.Therefore, in general, the requirements that must be met by a biologically significant criterion limiting the level of influence of the militarytechnogenic load on the ecosystem is as follows: • complexity -the ability to integrally characterize military-technogenic changes in the natural ecosystem; • objectivity -the possibility of determining on the basis of real natural parameters the state of the natural ecosystem; • concreteness -the presence of the numerical value of the corresponding indicator; • purposefulness -the application of the criterion should ensure the preservation of the natural ecosystem.
For an integral assessment, an ecosystem approach can be applied when there is a whole edifier sinusia or trophic network of vertebrates observed in this territory as an indicator [24,25].
To form the basic prerequisites for the development of a comprehensive procedure for ecosystem indication of the state of the natural environment of the HS area, will limit ourselves to considering the balance equations of terrestrial ecosystems of military facilities, which are based on the laws of mass and energy storage and describe the mass-energy exchange between the main biotic components of the ecosystem: producers (P), substrates (S) and consumers (Q) (figure 1).According to the hierarchical structure of natural geosystems, this scheme identifies the position of MNTG as a subject of study at the landscape and ecosystem levels.By biomass of an ecosystem, means the amount of functioning living matter, expressed in units of mass and related to unit area or volume (it is possible to say that talking about the average density of biomass).
Phyto-mass, zoo-mass, and microorganism mass are distinguished.Producers with biomass are heterotrophic organisms (animals (macro-consumers), bacteria and fungi (micro-consumers)) that consume ready-made organic substances but do not break down organic matter into simple mineral components, and feed on producers and other organisms.First-order consumers (those that consume plants) and second, third, etc. order consumers (predators) are distinguished.
The units of measurement of the biomass of the above-mentioned components of ecosystems are: • for producers -phytomass: the weight of autotrophic organisms (green plants) per unit area or volume.For example, 200 kg of grass cover per 1 km 2 , 80 kg of leaves per 1 tree, and so on.• for consumers -zoomass: the number of heterotrophic organisms (individuals, bacteria, and fungi) per unit area.For example, 69 individuals of green lizards per 1 km2, 10 common woodpeckers per 5 km 2 , and so on.• for substrates -the weight of organisms per unit area.
The ecosystem model of the polygon will be described by aggregated coordinates P, Q, S (figure 2).To take into account the impact of HS measures and the restorative (rehabilitation) impact of nature conservation measures in the balance relationships adopted in mathematical ecology to describe the functioning of ecosystems [26][27][28], will add the functions W and U : where: L i P , L j Q -coefficients of natural growth of producers and consumers, respectively; D i P , D j Q -coefficients of mortality of producers and consumers, respectively; a ij -the rate of biomass consumption of the producer species (i) by the consumer species (j); b ik -the rate of conversion of biomass of the substrate species (k) to biomass of the producer species (i); d jl -the rate of consumption of the consumer species (j) by the consumer species (l); e kj -reproduction of the substrate species (k) by the consumer species (j); c ki -the rate of consumption of the substrate species (k) by the producer species (i); Ω P i -a function characterizing the transformation of solar energy by the i-th producer species (weather and climatic impact); W P i , W Q j , W S k -a function characterizing the direct harmful impact of HS on the corresponding components of the ecosystem.Modeled by an impulse impact, which abruptly shifts the system to a new position along the corresponding coordinate; U P i , U Q j , U S k -a function characterizing the direct restorative (rehabilitation) impact of nature conservation measures on the corresponding components of the ecosystem.It consists of the sum of natural (external migration and succession) and artificial restoration measures.
The coefficients L, D, a, b, c, d, e (indices are omitted) are complex functions of the vector of natural-climatic factors of the polygon ℵ, the nature, type, intensity of pollution, internal (related to military activities), background, and externally introduced (from technogenic hazardous objects located outside the polygon) pollutants, i.e., components of the generalized pollution vector Z and the rhythm (chronology) and activity of military activities.The rhythm and activity of military activities are determined by the vector of military activity parameters V .
The generalized pollution vector Z consists of concentrations of pollutants (compounds) present in the given territory.The vector of military activity parameters V includes data on the volume, intensity, duration, and periodicity of military activities.
It is particularly important to emphasize that the impact of pollution occurs slowly and manifests itself after a certain time following the accumulation and "assimilation" of these pollutants by the environment.
Thus, the coefficients of equations (equation ( 1)) (indexes are omitted) are complex functions of ℵ, Z, V : , where K = {ρ(ℵ), Λ(z), θ(V )} is a tuple of scalar functions.The form of the functions of naturalclimatic factors ρ(ℵ) and their parameters are determined by special observations of climate changes in the region.During the time interval of assessment and forecasting of the state of the ground ecosystems of the military training ground (T ∼ = 10 years), it is assumed that the values of the function ρ(ℵ) are equal to the averaged values over a period of approximately 50 ÷ 100 years, since the function of climate parameter changes includes periodic fluctuations with periods that exceed several hundred and a thousand years [29].It should be emphasized that seasonal weather deviations from the mean value are considered as random parametric disturbances, the characteristics of which can be identified based on multi-year observations and taken into account in the corresponding algorithms.
The pollution function Λ(Z) is determined algorithmically.The measurement results of the components of the Z vector are recalculated into a generalized pollution index I (see above).
The function of HS parameters θ(V ) controls the structure of the system of equations ( 1) and logically coordinates the direct influence of W and the action of pollution Z.
Finally, the dependence of the coefficients in equations ( 1) on the pollution index takes the form ), where f is replaced accordingly by L, D, a, b, c, d, e with their subscripts, and coefficients f 0 , f 1 , f 2 are subject to current identification.
In assessment tasks, the pollution index I is calculated for the current time t of observation of the pollution vector Z.In problems of assessing the pollution index I, it is calculated at the current observation time t of the pollution vector Z.In the problem of predicting the pollution index I, it is calculated at a future time t based on the knowledge of the function θ (V ) , which is given in the form of a military operation plan.
By linearizing equations (1) near the stable equilibrium point of the polygon mesoecosystem (a mesoecosystem unaffected by human activity), obtain a system of equations in the deviations of the biomass of producers, substrates, and consumers: Therefore, it is proposed to decompose such an ecosystem into a series of subsystems of homogeneous biocenosis and to aggregate the components of the model to the maximum extent possible (minimizing its dimension) by using corresponding summary indicators (indices) regarding the state of producers, consumers, and substrate.System ecologists determine which specific indicators to use for building the aggregated model systems (equation ( 1)) based on objective observations [30].
Thus, the entire terrestrial ecosystem of military action is divided into subsystems, for each of which an individual aggregated simulation mathematical model is developed.
Mathematical models (MM) of ecological subsystems are aggregated three-dimensional MMs, which differ in that first-type models are linear (stable), and second-type models are nonlinear (logistic).
At the core of the hierarchy of complex geosystems and their diversity lies a clear and implicit division of two main ways of perceiving information about the environment [30]: biologyecological, where the hierarchical series is structured according to the scheme: of location and community -ecosystem -biome; ecological and geographical: landscape element -landscapeecoregion.However, this classification cannot be considered unambiguous.For instance, habitats are often interpreted through abiotic characteristics (environment-forming factors) that determine the conditions for the existence of a species in a specific territory of the HS.However, in relation to animals, vegetation is usually considered as a characteristic of the habitat and a criterion for its selection.As a result, the location becomes comparable in volume to the ecosystem of the HS territory.
If consider one of the blocks or elements of the natural environment in MNTG (figure 2), it is in a quasi-stationary state with internal equilibrium.However, at the border of homogeneous media, there are observed mutually exchange flows of mass transfer that can be activated by ingredients of military origin and military-technogenic energy fields.
Figure 2. Scheme of interaction of the HS with the components of the environment in the MNTG (for an explanation of the designations, see table 1 [1].

Discussion
The general boundaries of MNTG are rather arbitrary, blurred, and determined by the level of natural or altered geochemical background.The flows associated with the "Hostilities in the Military Areas" block are marked with digital indices.The classification of these streams is given in table 1.
The considered scheme of MNTG has a general structural character.In some specific cases, the location of military objects may result in some streams being zero, and the blocks may be transformed or excluded altogether from consideration.The generalized vector index consists of integral pollution indicators according to the corresponding hazard classes (I 1 Σ , I 2 Σ , I 3 Σ , I 4 Σ ) or integral pollution indicators according to the corresponding components of the abiotic environment of the MNTG (I ΣA I ΣG I ΣL p I ΣL g ) T .The impact of pollution occurs sometime after its deposition in the abiotic and biotic components of the MNTG, when the formation of mobile forms in the "soil-plant" system or on the surface of plants begins.
Consider the indicators of MTL, which, by being captured from UAVs and satellite images of remote sensing, make it possible to determine the level of damage to the natural ecosystem's territory caused by HS factors.A classification of the relevant indicators was developed, which Table 1.Classification of flows between MNTG blocks [1].

Blocks
Combat training Atmospheric air Lithosphere

Main processes Mass transfer
Hostilities in the MA (1) - Based on the main provisions of the theory of biocenology, a working hypothesis can be put forward that a necessary and sufficient condition for the self-healing of the biota of the ecosystem in operational zones of HS is the preservation of the viability of the edifier sinusia of its phytocenosis [3,4].
Several full-scale studies have shown that the degradation of ecosystems is almost irreversible when the population density of edifier group of species (the main forest-forming species in forest ecosystems) decreases by two or more times [3,26].The disadvantage of using ecosystem productivity as an indicator characterizing the degree of military-anthropogenic damage to the natural environment is its ambiguity due to its change under the artificial action of various factors.Military-technogenic factors usually lead to degradation of ecosystems and a decrease in their productivity.However, some types of anthropogenic influences can destroy the balance of the natural ecosystem by causing a sharp increase in biological productivity (e.g., the process of eutrophication of reservoirs when mineralized or biologically enriched liquid waste is discharged into them).Therefore, it is advisable not to use the absolute value of the change in productivity or its relation to the basic value of the productivity of the primary (background) ecosystem to assess the degree of impact on the ecosystem.
MTL on the environment makes changes in the mechanism of homeostasis due to the deformation or destruction of feedback, which leads to the gradual replacement of primary ecosystems with less productive ones.Since the existence and functioning of any ecosystems are determined by the leading (edifier) role of a rather limited number of species, mainly plants, military-anthropogenic action on edifiers leads to violations and changes in other components of ecosystems [26,27,30].From the outside, this process is expressed in the reduction and rupture of the ranges of edifier species in primary ecosystems and the transfer of the main role in creating the bioenvironment and drawing up the structure of the biocenosis to other species.Conversely, any violations of ecosystems not associated with the death of edifiers do not lead to a noticeable degradation of the ecosystem or its components.With this approach to assessing the state of the ecosystem, a quantitative change in the population density of autochthonous edifier species could become an indicator of the degree of military-anthropogenic damage to the ecosystem, and the time of action could be attributed to the indicator of its speed.Considering the significant analogy between pyrogenic processes and military-anthropogenic action in the structure and nature of the biota violation, it is possible to classify zones of military-anthropogenic destruction in the zone of HS according to the state of edifier sinusia and give a point assessment of the ecosystem's ability to self-heal (table 3).The complete destruction of the indigenous community and the removal of land from natural circulation for a long time Under the military-anthropogenic influence (I and II class), effective and constant monitoring of the density of populations of edifier species is necessary, and work on the reclamation of these territories (especially in class III) should be aimed primarily at restoring the edifier sinusia that formed the basis of the ecosystem before the start of the HS.

Conclusion
The biologically justified permissible threshold value of technogenic changes in the phytocenosis edificator sinus of the ecosystem is of paramount importance for determining development paths and selecting database management in the face of inevitable military and technological intrusion into the natural equilibrium ecosystem.Experimentally determined indicators should influence the choice of nature conservation and restoration measures in planning databases, but they do not allow for an integrated characterization of the degree of military-technological disturbance of the ecosystem as a whole.
In this article, a mathematical model (equation ( 1)) has been developed that: • adequately reflects the impact of combat operations on biocenoses of educational facilities; • can be used as a mathematical model of phenomena, the parameters of which, with sufficient experimental data, are identified (calibrated) using identification algorithms with the model; • after identification (calibration), it can be included in algorithms for complex assessment and prediction of the state of terrestrial ecosystems affected by combat operations.
Of the existing indicators in modern mathematical ecology, productivity indicators are the most suitable for this purpose.For natural equilibrium ecosystems, the productivity of the biocenosis correlates well with its complexity and species composition.Therefore, the suppression or destruction of any species as a result of the impact of combat operations inevitably affects the productivity of the biocenosis, and thus, it can serve as a quantitative assessment of the depth of the military-technogenic impact on the ecosystem.
To assess the corresponding level of changes, the system of indicators presented in table 2 can be used, which is interrelated with the levels of military-technogenic violations (table 3).
With sufficient accuracy for engineering assessments, the primary productivity indicator (biomass produced by producers per unit area per unit time during the growing season) can be used.By applying biology-accepted methods and conducting regular observations using remote sensing satellites or unmanned aerial systems to monitor changes in this indicator over time and space, it is possible to determine both the overall dimensions of military-technogenic impact zones and the dynamics and pace of this process when using various weapons systems and military equipment.

Table 2 :
Characteristics of factors MTL.

Table 3 .
Classification of levels of military-technogenic disturbance of natural ecosystems.