Transformational processes of ensuring sustainable urban development: the realities of Ukraine

The purpose of the study is to determine the state of transformational conversions in Ukraine on the way to achieving the goals of sustainable development, in particular, the condition of the development of cities and communities. With this goal, an analysis of Ukraine’s position according to indicators of sustainable development in dynamics was carried out. It has been established that Ukraine is committed to the values and goals of sustainable development. An assessment of measures regarding the adaptation of sustainable development goals in Ukraine was conducted. It has been found out, that Ukraine has made progress in achieving twelve of the 17 goals that determine the country’s sustainable development in the economic, social, and environmental spheres, including SDG 11 “Sustainable cities and communities”. The state and amounts of financing of the “Stable cities and communities” goal were analyzed, and the disadvantages of the Ukrainian system of state strategic planning and budgeting were identified. Proposals regarding the innovative nature of economic development in the context of sustainable development of cities and communities have been researched and substantiated. Approaches to the management and development of cities and communities are proposed, which should be based on inclusiveness, safety, and sustainability principles.


Introduction
In the modern activity of mankind, issues related to various aspects of cities sustainable development are considered key factors in the development of the modern economy.The sustainable development of spatial systems, as a form of organization and ensuring a high quality of human life, gave impetus to changing approaches and strategies in the development of states, regions, cities, and territorial communities.The principles proposed by the international and European community, outlined in the Leipzig Charter "European Cities on the Path to Sustainable Development", the Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth "Europe 2020" and the UN Global Sustainable Development Goals are an illustration of approaches to sustainable development at the micro-, meso-, macro-and mega-levels.The conceptual principles of managing the sustainable development of the city are based on the guiding principles and regulations of the European Union, namely: the Charter of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Europe (Strasbourg, 1957), the European Charter of Regional Spatial Planning (Torremolin Charter, 1983), the European Charter of local self-government (Strasbourg, 1985), the Gothenburg Strategy for the Sustainable Development of Europe (Gothenburg, 2001), the Leipzig Charter for the Sustainable Development of the City (Leipzig, 2007), the Europe 2020 Strategy "A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth" (Brussels, 2010).
The sustainable development of cities makes them viable, able to adapt, mitigate adverse

Research results
At the end of the 20th century, the principles of sustainable development were approved by the world community at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro (1992) and finalized in the UN report "On Human Development" in 1994 into a universal concept of sustainable development.The essence of the concept of sustainable development in its modern understanding is the balance of social development in social, ecological, and economic aspects.Sustainable development is the development that satisfies all spheres of society's life without harming the opportunities of future generations [1].Historically, Ukraine's path to sustainable development began at the same conference in Rio de Janeiro, when the Rio de Janeiro Declaration and Agenda for the Program of Action in the 21st Century were signed.Subsequently, Ukraine confirmed its desire to follow this path and, as a result, in 1997, the National Commission for Sustainable Development was created under the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
In 2015, in New York, as part of the agenda of the summit "Transforming our world: an agenda in the field of sustainable development until 2030", the UN General Assembly approved 17 sustainable development goals aimed at fighting poverty, protecting the planet and improving the lives and prospects of everyone, around the world and called on countries, the public sector and business to unite for their implementation.Goal number 11 is the sustainable development of cities and communities [2].
Since 2015, several reforms have been launched in Ukraine (figure 1) aimed at implementing socioeconomic transformations and strengthening the democratic system.The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) are integrated into a public policy based on "leaving no one behind".The result of the inclusive SDG adaptation process for Ukraine, taking into account the specifics of national development, was the SDG system, which consists of 86 tasks with 183 indicators for monitoring.The government established an Interdepartmental Working Group on SDG issues to coordinate work on achieving the goals.For now, the responsibility of the ministries for SDG tasks has been established, the President of Ukraine has adopted a Decree that attaches the Goals as a reference point for the development of program and forecast documents, and an SDG monitoring system has been developed.In 2019, an analysis of the degree of SDG incorporation (at the level of SDG tasks) was carried out.In total, 17 goals and 86 national tasks of the SDG are incorporated into 162 regulatory and legal acts of the Government, 1,394 goals, and 4,296 measures established in these acts are aimed at the implementation of goals and tasks.But, despite a significant number of state strategic documents and a large volume of tasks and measures, not all tasks of the 17 goals are taken into account [3][4][5].In 2021, according to the Sustainable Development Goals Index (SDG 2022) (figure 2), Ukraine took 37th place out of 163 countries, ahead of Australia (38th place), Lithuania (39th) and the USA (41st).Finland, Denmark and Sweden occupy the first places in the ranking of the SDG 2022 index, and the Central African Republic and South Sudan are the last [6].
Studies show that in 2021, progress is being made in Ukraine in achieving twelve of the 17 goals that determine the sustainable development of the country in the economic, social, and environmental spheres, including SDG 11 "Sustainable cities and communities" (figure 3).Ukraine has made the most progress in achieving the goal of "universal elimination of poverty in all its forms".At the same time, Ukraine did not deteriorate its position in any of the basic objectives.However, the analysis of state strategic documents points to the disadvantages of the Ukrainian system of state strategic planning and budgeting.Thus, a large number of strategic and programmatic documents for 17 targeted areas of development leads to unclear coordination of efforts to achieve goals and perform tasks, forms a discrete rather than a systematic approach to policy formation, scatters financial, material, and human resources prevent the ability to concentrate on the efficient use of resources to achieve a certain result.The consequence of the lack of systematic work is, among other things, underfunding of important tasks and measures, low degree of their implementation, duplication of functions, tasks, and measures between executive authorities, and low responsibility for failure in the achievement of results.
In general, in the world ranking of indicators of sustainable development, Ukraine occupies not the worst, but also not the best positions.Thus, in 2020, according to the international analytical organization Legatum Institute, Ukraine took 92nd place in the ranking of the wellbeing of countries, which is 4 positions higher than in 2019 (figure 4).At the same time, among all the countries of Eastern Europe, Ukraine ranks last in the rating.The reason for this is  the war in the East of Ukraine, which has been going on since 2014, which significantly lowers Ukraine's security rating (to 144th place out of 167).In addition, there are problems in the sphere of freedom of assembly and association in Ukraine, and indicators of religious tolerance in Ukraine have increased in recent years.The first places in the Legatum Institute rating are occupied by Denmark, Norway, and Switzerland.The last two are the Central African Republic and South Sudan [8].
Ukraine belongs to the developing countries, and according to the results highlighted in the latest report on the Inclusive Development Index in 2018, it ranked 49th among 74 developing countries.Lithuania, Hungary, Azerbaijan, Latvia, and Poland are 5 developing countries that are leading in terms of inclusiveness of economic growth.Norway, Iceland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Denmark are among the top five countries developed by the level of inclusiveness of economic growth.Ukraine's development trends indicate that the inclusiveness of its economic development decreased by 6,8 percent from 2014-2018.In particular, the distribution of wealth in Ukraine is one of the most uneven among all developing countries.At the same time, the level of income inequality and the level of poverty in Ukraine is low: the middle class, in the opinion of WEF experts, remains numerous, health care and support for the unemployed are at a sufficient level, and the education system contributes well to inclusive growth.However, constant wars in the east of the country contribute to regression, as they disproportionately affect the poorest strata of the population, prompting talented people to leave the country in search of opportunities for self-realization.The priorities are to increase the level of professional education, reduce the administrative burden on the creation of new enterprises, expand the financing of entrepreneurs and increase attention to the fight against corruption [9][10][11].
According to the current Environmental Performance Index (EPI), in 2022 Ukraine ranked 52nd among 180 countries in the world, and Ukraine has advantages in rational nitrogen management [12].For reference, in 2020 and 2018, Ukraine ranked 60th and 109th, accordingly [10], and in 2016, it ranked 44th in almost all indicators, including water quality and air cleanliness.The current situation in the economy of Ukraine is characterized by not very high innovation activity, which is primarily related to the lack of own funds for enterprises and limited budget funding.Thus, according to the Global Innovation Index 2022 global innovation rating, Ukraine took 57th place out of 132 economies, holding the 4th position among 36 countries of the lower-middle income economic group, and is 34th among 39 European economies.Compared to previous years, Ukraine slightly worsened its results (for comparison, in 2021 -49th, in 2020 -45th, in 2019 -47th, and 2018 -43rd place, accordingly).Switzerland is recognized as the most innovative country, immediately after is USA, Sweden, Great Britain, and the Netherlands.It is also noted that China approached the TOP-10 innovative economies of the world (11th place), while Turkey and India entered the TOP-40 for the first time [13,14].
As already mentioned above, of the seventeen sustainable development goals approved by the UN General Assembly in 2015 within the framework of the agenda of the summit "Transforming our world: agenda in the sphere of sustainable development until 2030", goal number 11 is the sustainable development of cities and communities.
The tasks of sustainable development of cities and communities include ensuring by 2030: access to sufficiently safe and inexpensive housing, safe, inexpensive, and environmentally sustainable transport systems, open for all and ecologically sustainable urbanization, preservation of world cultural and natural heritage, reduction of damage from natural disasters, reducing the negative environmental impact of cities, ensuring access to safe and open to all green zones and public places, improving the quality of national and regional development planning, implementing a comprehensive management approach in cities and settlements, assisting the least developed countries in the construction of sustainable and durable buildings.
Cities are the dominant form of socioeconomic organization and engines of the economic growth of any country.Among the variety of modern urban concepts, sustainable development has the longest history and the widest recognition in the world, but recently the Smart City concept has become increasingly popular.Smart sustainable cities become "innovative cities that use informational and communication technologies and other means to improve the quality of life, the efficiency of cities work and services, and competitiveness, while ensuring accordance of the needs of current and future generations in terms of economic, social, environmental, and also cultural aspects [15].
Rapid urbanization leads to ineffective allocation and application of resources, overtime increasing the burden on the environment.Enterprises that work in cities and contribute to overall economic prosperity have the opportunity to support infrastructure development by participating in the elaborateness of strategies for the development of cities and communities, using their capabilities and knowledge to identify innovative and economically effective solutions to complex, interdisciplinary issues of urban sustainability.
Realizing their responsibility, communities, and cities all over the world are increasingly paying attention to issues of sustainable development, and Ukraine is also trying to keep pace with global trends.As of January 1, 2022, Ukraine has accrued 461 cities (including 2 cities with special status).The urban population in Ukraine, as of January 1, 2022, is 28 million and 693 thousand people, which is 69.7 percent [16].
Studies show that, despite Ukraine's clear movement towards achieving the goals of sustainable development, funding for SDG 11, although high at the current stage, but still not sufficient from the side of Ukraine, as well as international institutions.The main source of funding for regional development is several subventions from the state and local budgets.One of the tasks of Goal 11 is to increase housing affordability: this goal is financed from local and state budgets.To the objectives of SDG 11, local authorities are developing regional development strategies, although some communities have not yet completed this task.Such programs are developed by the communities themselves and at the expense of international technical assistance (ITA) projects.The level of housing and communal services financing remains low.In addition, neither state nor local budgets allocate appropriate funds for financing ecologically sustainable development.Also, it can be noted that most of the projects implemented in the public sector aimed at the realization of SDG 11 do not find support from international financial institutions (IFI).In the structure of bank loans granted in 2021, which can be conditionally divided into sustainable development goals, only 8 percent was issued for the development of SDG 11.
The assessment of the financing of sustainable development goal 11 "Sustainable cities and communities" for the period 2017-2020 shows that these are investments by state-owned enterprises in construction, restaurants, and hotels.In particular, these are investments in state project institutions, housing and communal enterprises of central state authorities, etc. Private investment financing of SDG 11, which includes investment in urban development (primarily investment in operations with real estate, hotels, and restaurants and 50 percent of investment in construction), can be assessed as high, (figure 5).International technical assistance (ITA) is one of the important mechanisms for financing sustainable development in Ukraine.Ukraine, as a developing country, has been receiving ITA since 1992 and quite actively uses this financial instrument in almost all sectors of the economy.ITA projects also paid significant attention to SDG 11 "Sustainable Cities and Communities".326 million dollars were allocated for SDG 11 to implement 119 projects in such sectors as "Regional development", "Culture and historical heritage", "Development of youth and sports", "Decentralization and promotion of regional development" and partially in the sector "Development of social infrastructure and services".In particular, these projects are aimed at supporting the natural reserve fund of Ukraine, helping local self-government bodies improve the management of resources and services by community priorities, increasing the role of cultural heritage sites as tourist destinations, improving the effectiveness of work with youth and the quality of youth policy at the local and national levels.The main projects in 2016-2020 within the framework of SDG 11 were the US projects "Decentralization that ensures better results and efficiency" (DOBRE), "Ukrainian national identity through youth" and the EU project "U-LEAD with Europe: Ukraine -expanding opportunities on places, accountability, and the Development Program".
The sustainable development of cities and communities in Ukraine is also ensured by special programs of the Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories, including SFRD.Community development budgets are also important.Priorities of regional development and tasks related to their implementation are determined by the State Strategy of Regional Development for the period until 2027.To fulfill this, appropriate regional strategies have been accepted.At the same time, some communities in Ukraine still have not developed and approved development strategies.The importance of the strategies lies in the fact that they allow enterprises to understand the local government's policy regarding the development of the relevant community and to estimate the amount of funding for the implementation of the planned changes.
Different proposals and approaches to local development strategies suggested by different projects complicate the implementation of strategic planning at the community level.One of the tasks of this goal is to ensure housing affordability.Several state programs are aimed at this.These programs are implemented by state institutions, whose source of statutory and operating capital formation is the state budget.Among them are programmed to reduce the cost of mortgages and housing rent for representatives of certain professions, which are implemented by the State Fund for the Assistance of Youth Housing Construction and the Entrepreneurship Development Fund (7 percent affordable mortgage).
However, today in Ukraine, as a result of the full-scale war, the situation in the direction of achieving the goals of sustainable development, in particular sustainability and cities, has significantly worsened, Mariupol, Volnovakha, Rubizhne, Popasna, Liman, and Severodonetsk were completely destroyed.The situation in the occupied communities of the Kherson region is very difficult.Some communities of the Mykolaiv region and Zaporizhzhia suffered significant destruction.In Kharkiv, part of the Northern Saltivka micro-district was also destroyed.Due to Russia's war against Ukraine, millions of citizens lost their homes.According to preliminary calculations by the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development, more than 2.4 million Ukrainians live in destroyed or significantly damaged dwellings.This is a preliminary figure because, in the conditions of martial law and temporary occupation of some regions, it is impossible to accurately calculate the number of uninhabitable housing.According to the data given by the regional military administrations, from February 24 to October 18, 2022, almost 160,000 damaged or destroyed objects were recorded in the territories available for counting.60 percent of them have a degree of destruction of more than 50 percent.Among the damaged real estate objects, residential premises predominate -more than 142,000.Of them, more than 54,000 are with a degree of destruction up to 50 percent, and 88,000 are 50-100 percent [18].
As of June 2022, the cost of direct damage has reached more than 97 billion US dollars, and as of February 2023, losses are estimated at 135 billion US dollars.Most affected were residential buildings (40 percent of total damage in 2022 and 38 percent in 2023), transportation (31 and 26 percent, respectively), energy (3 and 8 percent, respectively), and trade and industry (10 and 8 percent, respectively).Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Kyiv, and Kherson regions are the most affected (figure 6).Disruptions to economic flows and production, as well as additional war-related costs, are collectively estimated as losses of US dollars 252 billion as of June 2022 and US dollars 290 billion as of February 2023 [19,20].
In the first quarter of 2022, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 15.1 percent year-on-year, and the poverty rate is expected to increase from 2 percent to 21 percent (based on a poverty line of US dollars 5.5 per person per day).The cost of the need for reconstruction and restoration, as of June 1, 2022, is estimated at more than 349 billion US dollars, which exceeds the GDP of Ukraine in 2021 by more than 1.6 times [19].As of April 2023, according to the updated data of the damage assessment and recovery needs (RDNA2),  [19,20]).the needs of our state for reconstruction have increased to 411 billion dollars (this is 2.6 times more than the projected GDP of the country in 2022) [21].
As shown in figure 7 according to the calculations made in 2022, extremely large losses and needs of financial resources are needed to restore the infrastructure of cities, in particular, the transport sector (21 percent), housing (20 percent), energy (3 percent), the sector of social protection and means of livelihood (6 percent), liquidation of explosive objects (9 percent), etc. [19].However, the 2023 figures indicate that the level of destruction is steadily increasing and, according to the assessment, the greatest recovery needs are in the transport sector (22 percent), housing (17 percent), energy (11 percent), social protection, and livelihoods (10 percent).The greatest increase in the level of destruction is noted in the energy sector (increased more than fivefold compared to June 2022) [20,21].
In 2022, Ukraine's GDP fell by 29.2 percent, 13.5 million people were displaced in Ukraine and Europe, millions lost their homes, and 7.1 million people were below the poverty line as poverty rose from 5.5 to 24.1 percent, setting the country back 15 years.In general, the achievement of many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a result of military actions is extremely difficult to sustain and achieve shortly, especially those related to poverty, health, education, energy, industry, peace, and justice, sustainable development of cities and communities.After the end of the war, all cities, including the infrastructure, will need to be rebuilt, but it must be rebuilt based on the principles of sustainable development.That is, it will be necessary to make important decisions and take important steps so that cities in the future become modern, innovative, inclusive, low-carbon, resistant to disasters and climate change, and meet the standards of the European Union.Despite the huge total amount of funding, the experience of other countries shows that reconstruction takes many years and a phased approach is critical.At the same time, it should be understood that the implementation of sustainable practices in cities and communities is not just a process that can be implemented in a month or a year.This requires additional investments, also the approval and realization of the State Regional Development Strategy, ensuring appropriate coordination of the process of implementation of regional development strategies in all regions based on smart specialization, strengthening the connection between strategic, spatial, and budget planning, reducing the negative impact of polluting substances on the environment, including the environment of cities, through the use of innovative technologies, etc., which will contribute to the transformation of large cities into rational and sustainable communities, the residents of which will be able to enjoy such advantages as reducing energy costs, improving the quality of services, reducing the amount of waste, creating a more favorable urban environment, creating opportunities for economic activity and development.
The recovery and reconstruction plan after hostilities in Ukraine should also be based on the following principles.
• Inclusivity and equality.Recovery and reconstruction must be closely linked to efforts to strengthen social inclusion and gender equality.That is, it is necessary to act according to the principle of "sustainable cities for people and created by people".Inclusivity starts with transparency and public participation.People must understand the consequences of local government decisions on community development and participate in their development.
• Sustainability and reconstruction are based on the "build back better" principle.The main part of Ukraine's infrastructure was built during the Soviet era and, at the same time, was constantly worn out due to insufficient funding.Today, the country's infrastructure needs restoration in war-affected territories and radical modernization in territories where military operations did not take place.Rehabilitation and modernization must be carried out by climate change and sustainable development goals.For example, the road network suffers from a chronic lack of maintenance and repair, as well as needs major repairs, and more than half of the water supply networks are in critical condition.Social infrastructure is also not in the best condition, in particular schools, kindergartens and basic healthcare facilities are outdated and in need of reconstruction and modernization, as well as increased energy efficiency and increased resilience to climate change.Ukrainian industry and the energy sector will also need to adapt to best practices and standards that provide for higher efficiency and greater sustainability.For cities to be sustainable, urban infrastructure must be sustainable.According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), sustainable infrastructure systems are "planned, designed, constructed, operated and decommissioned in such a way as to ensure the economic, financial, social, environmental (including resilience to climate change) and institutional sustainability of the entire infrastructure life cycle".This infrastructure can be nature-based, conventionally built, or combine elements of both to form a hybrid infrastructure.Building with nature, not against it, has direct benefits for cities.The term natural infrastructure (NBI) includes areas or systems that use nature to provide infrastructure services to people, the economy, and the environment.Examples of NBI include natural ecosystems such as forests, mangroves, wetlands, and grasslands.But NBI can also include engineered or "grey" structures that include natural solutions such as rain gardens and green roofs [22].

Conclusions
Based on the conducted research, it was established that since 2015, several reforms aimed at achieving the goals of sustainable development have been introduced and started in Ukraine, which is integrated into the state policy based on "leaving no one behind".However, despite the great number of efforts and the development of normative documents, not all tasks of the sustainable development goals are taken into account and fulfilled.From year to year, progress is constantly observed in Ukraine in achieving the goals of sustainable development, including SDG 11 "Sustainable cities and communities".In the world ranking of indicators of sustainable development, Ukraine is not a leader, but it is not lagging either.Despite the efforts and significant work carried out by Ukraine in the direction of achieving the goals of sustainable development, the financing of SDG 11, although it is observed, and it can be said that its level is high, however, it is not sufficient from the side of Ukraine, as well as international institutions.Today and in the future, the model of inclusive growth in Ukraine should be based on the European experience and guided by the principles of intellectual, sustainable, and comprehensive development.If we to history, then Stefan Füle's remark at the meeting of the Ukraine-EU Parliamentary Cooperation Committee in Brussels on March 22-23, 2010, that Ukraine now needs "concrete reforms, not just encouraging words", is still relevant today.
What is necessary today is a better understanding of the importance of achieving the SDG both at the central and local levels, as well as improving the skills of civil servants and deputies at all levels, which requires the development and conduction of training on relevant topics, including the methodology of financial development assessment and operational comprehensive assessment, to the program of advanced training courses for civil servants.In particular, special programs on issues of sustainable development and achieving the SDG, analysis of poverty and social impact should be introduced.The SDG cannot be achieved without the active role of national business.The development of corporate social responsibility of business in such conditions is extremely important.
The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and its further development should cover as much as possible the management organization of sustainable territorial development for the short, medium, and long-term perspective at the state, regional, and local levels.In the process of defining the SDG, relevant tasks, and indicators for a long-term perspective, it is necessary to take into account global development guidelines, principles of sustainable development, and public opinion regarding the vision of future development.World experience shows that social progress largely depends on maintaining a balance between the goals of supporting the economic growth of territories, business competitiveness, ensuring environmental safety, and reducing social inequality.Organizations, without exception, in their daily work have to take into account the goals and principles of the SDG, as external general settings, landmarks, and beacons that determine only the direction, what to strive for, and what to be for this.
Ensuring a sustainable future for Ukraine is possible through the development and implementation at the national level of the strategic and target foundations of state regulation of the country's sustainable development.Accordingly, the research on conceptual approaches to ensuring sustainable development in Ukraine, the definition of modern vectors of sustainable development of territorial communities in the conditions of post-war reconstruction acquires particular relevance.
Restoration of critical infrastructure, ensuring the energy security of the country (SDG 7, 9, 11).The planning of the restoration of the territories of Ukraine must be effective, in terms of the restoration of the life activities of cities, rural territories, and their communities, the authorities are endowed with the appropriate powers.Government representatives must make high-quality, effective, long-term systemic decisions.The best international experience of rebuilding cities after large-scale destruction shows that only an integrated approach based on the principles of sustainable development can restore the well-being of the population and social and cultural life.Stable and sustainable development of cities and regions is based on the principles of sustainable development: development of sustainable mobility, and ensuring the inclusiveness of public spaces.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Statistics of actions related to the adaptation of sustainable development goals in Ukraine (based on [3-5]).

Figure 3 .
Figure 3.The average value of achieving the goals of sustainable development in Ukraine (based on [7]).

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Financial investments in SDG 11 in Ukraine within the framework of the state and private sector, million UAH (based on [17]).

9 Figure 6 .
Figure 6.The total amount of damage caused to the cities and territories of Ukraine as a result of the full-scale war (based on[19,20]).

Figure 7 .
Figure 7.The total volume of needs for the reconstruction and restoration of cities and territories of Ukraine as a result of a full-scale war (based on [19-21]).

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Local solutions and local development.Restoration,revitalization, and modernization must be designed and implemented in such a way as to support the local economy.Any structure or process related to recovery and revitalization must utilize the economic and human capital of the country.Modernization of social infrastructure, housing stock, and transport infrastructure must be carried out based on the development and needs of the local community, business, and industry.•Focusing on community needs.Community-based development, with the active involvement of citizens, is a key component in building a sense of ownership and ensuring the sustainability of recovery and revitalization.Innovative approaches are essential to ensure the participation of the entire local community in restoration and revitalization.Community needs cannot be identified through a top-down approach, and any such attempt can only lead to investments that are not linked to real needs on the ground and are unlikely to deliver sustainable results.