Achieving wheat self-sufficiency in Brazil


 Brazil is a major global grain exporter yet imports about 40% of the wheat it consumes every year. To meet domestic demand, Brazilian wheat production could be expanded into the vast areas of the Cerrado. Self-sufficiency would require transforming at least 0.5 million hectares of pasture into irrigated crop land or 2 million hectares if rainfed. Larger areas would need to be cultivated to cope with population growth, commodity price variation and climate change impacts.

Brazil is a leading grain producer and exporter, producing on average 6.6 million tons (Mt) of wheat per year from 2013 to 2023 [1].However, to meet its average annual domestic consumption of 11.1 Mt over the same period, the country continued to rely on imports of 4.5 Mt of wheat each year (figure S1).This dependency on imports leads to high wheat prices in Brazil compared to the global average.Notably, in years when domestic wheat production is low, such as 2012, prices in Brazil can surge to 90% higher than the global average (figure S2), with the risk of pushing millions of Brazilians into hunger [2].To reduce the impact of external dependence and wheat price volatility, the country needs to increase domestic wheat production.
Currently 90% of the national wheat production is concentrated in the southern region (figure 1(A)) including Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) states [1].Sufficient year-round rainfall, for example at a farm in RS (figure 1(C)), favors the cultivation of wheat over winter, and it is generally sown between April and July [3].However, challenges like reduced solar radiation, frost damage, and plant diseases during winter impact grain yields, along with high year-to-year weather variability including droughts and heatwaves due to the climate phenomenon El Niño Southern Oscillation [3].Between 2013 and 2021, the average grain yield for the region was 2.5 t ha −1 [1], lower than the global average grain yield of 3.4 t ha −1 for the same period [4].Beyond low yields, Brazil's wheat production deficit relative to consumption is exacerbated by farmers' limited motivation to increase wheat production, primarily due to low profitability.This circumstance leads farmers to choose alternative cereal crops, such as maize and barley, due to more favorable economic prospects.
The predominant grain production system in Brazil is the soybean-maize double cropping system, and wheat is emerging as a viable complementary crop within this context.There are over 20 million hectares (Mha) of degraded planted pastureland in the Cerrado region in central Brazil [5] which if converted into cropland could be given over to production of soybean, maize, and wheat.Wheat cultivation has already started to expand into these vast Cerrado areas (figure 1(A)), with an impressive 8-fold increase in production since 2001 [1], promising to stably augment national production [8].
A typical Cerrado site in Goiás (GO) state has abundant solar radiation and air temperature around 21 • C even during the winter months (figure 1(B)) due to its low latitudes.In the summer, from November to March, the GO site receives an average monthly precipitation of over 100 mm (figure 1(B)).Significantly less rain falls during the winter with an average monthly precipitation from June to August (1981-2022) close to zero (figure 1(B)).
The dry Cerrado winters pose a significant challenge to wheat production and expansion [8].Rainfed wheat crops are usually sown in February in the Cerrado region, following the harvest of the summer crop (usually soybeans grown from mid-October to mid-February).This timing allows wheat anthesis to occur in April when there is still an average accumulated rainfall of around 20 mm (figure 1(B)), ensuring moister soil than if sowing is delayed so anthesis and grain filling happens during the dry month of June.However, a disadvantage of sowing wheat before winter is the high relative humidity during the wheat The current wheat planted area was obtained from IBGE.[6], and monthly temperature and precipitation from NASAPOWER [7].growing season that increases the incidence of wheat blast (Pyricularia oryzae pat.Triticum), a major cause of yield losses in Brazil [9].For example, field experiments with rainfed wheat in Cerrado consistently show yields below 2 t ha −1 with early March sowing, while yields sown later than April reach up to 5 t ha −1 , a difference attributed to reduced incidence of wheat blast in the drier period [8][9][10][11].Mostly without irrigation, the average wheat yield in Cerrado currently (2013-2023) is 2.6 t ha −1 [1].
If fields in Cerrado are irrigated, wheat sown in the dry period of May can yield more than 6 t ha −1 [10].It is noteworthy that a wheat yield of 9.6 t ha −1 was recently achieved in Cerrado after a 119 day growth period with irrigation, setting a world record for daily productivity of 80.9 kg ha −1 d −1 [12].Expanding irrigation could therefore greatly facilitate the success of wheat cultivation in Cerrado and all states in this area have the capacity to increase their irrigated area.The Mato Grosso state has the greatest potential to increase its irrigated area-expanding from 200 000 ha to 3.9 Mha, the potential increase could be up to 1900% [13].
In deciding how much wheat to sow, farmers in southern Brazil are strongly influenced by the wheat commodity price in Brazilian currency (Real R$).In this region, wheat production increases by 0.37 Mt for every R$100 increase in the price per t (figure S3) in October of the year preceding cultivation.The average price per t of wheat has been R$850 since 2013 [14], coinciding with the aforementioned yearly average production of 6.6 Mt.In subsequent years following those with high wheat prices in October, production can exceed 10 Mt (figure S3).In 2022, with unprecedented high prices, Brazil's wheat production reached 10.5 Mt, with the Cerrado region contributing 8% (0.9 Mt) to the total wheat production [1].If the Cerrado could have produced an extra 1 Mt of wheat, Brazil would have achieved national wheat self-sufficiency in 2022 by meeting its 11.5 Mt domestic demand.As the Cerrado average yield was 2.7 t ha −1 , an additional 0.37 Mha of wheat area would have been needed.
When wheat prices are low, achieving wheat selfsufficiency in Brazil faces another major challenge.In 2006, when the price dropped below R$400 per t, wheat production fell to less than 3.5 Mt, although this was also attributed to a combination of extreme weather events [3].Nevertheless, when prices are at approximately R$400 per t, the wheat production in southern Brazil is usually around 4 Mt.To meet domestic demand in such a scenario, the Cerrado region would need to produce 7.5 Mt, requiring an extra 2.5 Mha of planting area in addition to the 300 000 ha currently cultivated.
Future population growth and climate change pose additional challenges to the objective of wheat self-sufficiency in Brazil.Since 1975, wheat demand per capita in Brazil has averaged around 52 kg per person (figure S4).The current population of 210 M is projected to increase to 230 M by 2050, potentially raising the national wheat demand from 11.5 Mt to 12.8 Mt in this period (figure S5(S)).After 2050, the Brazilian population is likely to stabilize and then decline to 180 M by 2100 [15].With higher temperatures and increased drought frequency, climate change may decrease wheat production in southern Brazil by 22% by 2050 and potentially by up to 60% by 2100 [3].Increased demand together with the projected negative impact of climate change make it imperative to expand wheat areas in Brazil to minimize future dependency on imports.
To estimate the required land area for wheat selfsufficiency, we considered both irrigated and rainfed scenarios, while accounting for variations in population, climate change and wheat prices in the southern regions of Brazil.Our analysis suggests that transforming at least 0.5 Mha of the agricultural areas of Cerrado into irrigated wheat fields could meet Brazil's wheat demand until 2035 (figure 2).This is compared to transforming over 2 Mha of rainfed fields that would be needed to achieve the self-sufficiency with no irrigation (figure 2).These values are based on an average wheat price.This framework implies that only the planted area in the southern region of Brazil varies according to the wheat price and with that national wheat production, necessitating adjustments in the planted wheat area in the Cerrado for achieving wheat self-sufficiency.For the Cerrado, we assume an average wheat yield of 2.6 t ha −1 in rainfed and 9.0 t ha −1 in irrigated systems, regardless of the wheat price.
As climate change gradually impacts yields in southern Brazil, the extra wheat area needed to achieve self-sufficiency could rise to 3.5 Mha by 2050, if prices are low and crops are rainfed.For wheat selfsufficiency beyond 2050 as the population declines, Brazil's reliance on Cerrado land area would range from 0.4 Mha of irrigated fields when the wheat price is high to 3.1 Mha of rainfed fields when the wheat price is low.
To become self-sufficient in wheat as proposed, Brazil needs to consider how to support policy and investment in the Cerrado.Promoting sustainable wheat cultivation on existing farms and degraded lands, while preventing deforestation, is crucial.Research on drought-tolerant wheat varieties suited to the Cerrado's dry winter climate is also essential [8].Investments in irrigation infrastructure and knowledge transfer are vital for successful wheat farming in the tropics.Combatting climate change in Brazil and elsewhere through sustainable practices, including reforestation [16,17] and greenhouse gas emission reduction, is critical to decelerate the trend toward more frequent extreme weather events that threaten Brazilian wheat production [3].Affordable crop insurance programs can aid farmers during extreme low wheat production seasons [18], and might encourage more investment in agriculture.
The expansion of wheat in Brazil is primarily concentrated in the central Cerrado region, but research indicates an even greater potential in north and northeast Brazil, which includes some Cerrado lands [19] that could also be converted into productive croplands [20].Ongoing explorations into Brazilian vertical wheat farms [21], with a potential yield of 1,940 t ha −1 per year in a 10-layer farm [22], promise to reduce agricultural pressure on newly transformed areas.Brazil can achieve its wheat selfsufficiency despite climate change by embracing a combination of innovative technologies and adaptive agricultural practices with sustainable expansion into the Cerrado.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Wheat growing areas in Brazil.(a) Current wheat planted area (green shading) in Brazil in 2021.Average monthly temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2022 for (b) Cristalina, Goiás state (GO), a location in the potential new wheat region in the Cerrado and (c) Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul state (RS), a representative site in the traditional wheat region in southern Brazil.The current wheat planted area was obtained from IBGE.[6], and monthly temperature and precipitation from NASAPOWER [7].

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Projected additional wheat cropping area in the Cerrado required to achieve wheat self-sufficiency in Brazil, considering projected population growth, the recent per capita wheat consumption trend, the wheat price effect on crop area and the impact of climate change on wheat yields.The green line shows the area needed for rainfed wheat and the blue line the area needed for irrigated wheat given the different sowing times and expected yields in the Cerrado climate.The shaded areas indicate the impact of low (lower limit) and high (upper limit) wheat price on wheat production in southern Brazil.Estimated wheat yield change due to climate change in southern Brazil is from [3] using an ensemble mean based on five bias-adjusted CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for SSP5-7.0.