The Evaluation of the Impact of Meteorological and Marine Environment on the Combat Effectiveness of Surface Ships

In recent years, the evaluation of the impact of meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships has been an important content and hot topic in military oceanography research and naval battlefield support. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process is adopted to establish the hierarchical structure of the evaluation model, determine the weights of each index, and quantitatively evaluate the proportion of the influence of wind, sea wave, rain, visibility, atmospheric waveguide, and other factors on the combat effectiveness of surface ships. Combined with marine hydrometeorological data examples, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the index system, which can provide scientific and reasonable decision-making reference for ship commanders.


Introduction
The environment of a naval battle is the basic condition for the use of forces, the important condition for the performance of equipment, and the key factor for battlefield command in a naval battle, which has a huge impact on the actions of naval combat forces [1].In recent years, the assessment of the impact of meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships has become an important content and hot topic of military oceanography research and naval battlefield support [2].Quantitative assessment of the influence of meteorological and marine environmental factors on operational effectiveness can provide a reference for commanders to select operational areas and time scientifically, and make reasonable use of troops.
In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process is adopted to analyse the structure of the evaluation objectives.Here are the concrete steps: first, determine the evaluation objectives; second, establish the evaluation criteria; third, analyse the evaluation factors.According to the above process, from objectives to criteria and factors, the direct influence relationships among various factors are arranged in different levels from top to bottom to form a hierarchical structure chart.Then, combining with marine hydrometeorological data examples, we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the index system, finally, scientific and reasonable conclusions are drawn.

Select influence factors
The marine hydrometeorological conditions that affect the combat effectiveness of surface ships usually refer to the hydrologic and meteorological conditions that affect the combat effectiveness of surface ships in the combat sea area during combat time.According to the operational characteristics of naval surface ships, the effects of wind, visibility, sea waves, cloud cover, cloud height, precipitation, atmospheric waveguide, lightning, and other factors on the combat effectiveness of naval surface ships are mainly considered [3][4].

Build model
The evaluation target is selected as the impact of meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships; The evaluation criteria are divided into three performance indicators: ship navigation, radar detection, and missile launch.At the lowest level are several related assessment factors (i.e., environmental field).The hierarchical structure of the model is shown in Table 1.This is a twolevel assessment system with corresponding assessment factors for each evaluation criterion.
Table 1.The hierarchy of the evaluation system 3.The analytic hierarchy process is adopted to determine the weight of each index

Construct judgment matrix
Compared with the upper elements, we use the 1-9 scale method to make a pairwise comparison of each element in the next layer, then determine the relative importance of the lower elements to the upper elements [5], and finally, construct the pairwise comparison matrix and determine the corresponding index weights.In this case, we can construct 4 judgement matrices, such as the A-B judgement matrix (show in Table 2), the B1-C judgment matrix (show in Table 3), the B2-C judgment matrix (show in Table 4), and the B3-C judgment matrix (show in Table 5).

Determine the weight of each index
Calculate the geometric mean of all elements in each row of the judgment matrix B, 1 1, 2, , ICFOST-2023 Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2718 (2024) 012037 IOP Publishing doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2718/1/012037 , is the approximation of the desired eigenvector, which is the relative weight of the elements.In this example, It can be seen from the calculated results that 0.1 CR  , which indicates that the above judgment consistency can be accepted, that is, the weight value Similarly, the weight of each element in the second layer can be obtained, and the consistency test of the judgment matrix can be carried out respectively to obtain the weight of each evaluation index.
Table 3. Calculate the weights of C1, C2 and C3 It can be seen from the calculated results that CR<0.1, which indicates that the above judgment consistency can be accepted, that is, the weight value It can be seen from the calculated results that CR<0.1, which indicates that the above judgment consistency can be accepted, that is, the weight value 3 (0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1) T W = is acceptable (show in table 5).Table 6 shows the weight of each index in the evaluation system, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted next.

Adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the index system
Marine hydrometeorological conditions are characterized by their extensive contents and random changes.Therefore, it is unrealistic to describe marine hydrometeorological conditions quantitatively, which can only be considered from the effect of affecting combat operations.The method of expert rating was used to evaluate each influencing factor.
The evaluation set is a set of possible results made by various indicators.According to the evaluation of the impact of meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships and the division of meteorological marine environmental conditions, the evaluation set is established as follows: , , ,? ,? V V V V Advantageous Fuzzy Disadvantageous == 4.1.Determine the evaluation level of influencing factors Table 7 is an example of forecast values of meteorological and marine elements.According to the latest forecast conclusion, A cyclone formed in a certain sea, although the centre of the cyclone did not pass through the mission sea area, the meteorological and marine environment in the mission sea area was relatively severe due to the influence of the outer cloud system of the cyclone.Table 7. Forecast values of some meteorological and marine elements in the mission sea area The actual meteorological marine elements are rated according to the opinions of experts, as shown in the table 8-10.From the above results, it can be seen that the membership degree of the advantageous and fuzzy sum of the three indexes of ship navigation, radar detection, and missile launch are 0.7, 0.7007, and 0.615, the evaluation results are relatively objective.
Synthesize the vector Bi into a first-level evaluation matrix, .The results of this evaluation show that in this case, the evaluation of the impact of meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships, 8.958% of people think that it is advantageous, 43.072% of people think that it is fuzzy, 47.97% of people think that it is disadvantageous.

Turn fuzzy comments into total scores.
In a real situation, in order to sort several schemes, it is necessary to re-synthesize the comprehensive evaluation matrix A into a number [6].Therefore, the weighted average method is used to assign values to each evaluation rating and weight score, and the setting of the evaluation rating and weight score is shown in Table 12.In this case, the score of the evaluation score of the impact of the meteorological marine environment on the combat effectiveness of surface ships is 65.2472.

Conclusions
Based on the analysis of the main factors affecting the combat effectiveness of surface ships by the meteorological marine environment, the evaluation system model of combat effectiveness of surface ships is established.The combination of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis provides a scientific basis for commanders to fight.
Based on the case analysis, under the scores and weights given by experts, the results of the fuzzy evaluation show that the predicted meteorological marine elements tend to have a higher impact on the combat effectiveness of surface ships, and the evaluation score is 65.2472 points, which is between fuzzy and disadvantageous, and the combat effect may not meet the expectations.
As for the evaluation of the influence of other factors on the combat effectiveness of surface ships, a similar comprehensive evaluation can be carried out according to the above methods, and finally, a better combat plan can be selected according to the evaluation results.

Table 2 .
Calculate the weights of B1, B2 and B3

Table 6 .
The weight of factors affecting combat effectiveness

Table 8 .
Rate the factors that affect ship navigation

Table 9 .
Rate the factors that affect radar detection

Table 12 .
Weight scores correspond to evaluation rating