An agent-based model for technology adoption in Air Traffic Management

Technology adoption depends not only on the development of new technologies, but also on the existence of regulations able to foster the implementation of such technologies. To facilitate the exploration of different policy options aimed at accelerating the adoption of new Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies, an agent-based model that represents the behaviour of the European ATM system has been developed. This model includes representations of the main stakeholders in the ATM ecosystem: regulatory bodies, technology providers, labour unions and technology adopters, including Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs), airlines and airports. New ATM technologies, policies imposed, behavioural biases (e.g., loss aversion) and exogenous variables (e.g., fuel price) drive the actions of the agents, leading to the emergent global behaviour of the system. A calibration and validation process involving historical data, gaming experiments and participatory simulations was performed. The model was used to evaluate various policies that included economic incentives and penalties in two scenarios: one based on past events and another focused on the future. The results allow us to analyse which individual stakeholders benefit the most from each policy and to identify the mechanisms that emerge and drive the path of technology adoption, finding that a combination of economic incentives and penalties provides promising economical and operational results.