Forecast of solid waste generation in Atyrau region

The article calculates the formation of solid household waste in the city of Atyrau and 7 districts of Atyrau region. The calculation was carried out taking into account the number of people in the previous four years, based on the characteristics of the average population growth. According to calculations for the next 5 years (2020-2024), the amount of waste in Atyrau will increase every year, which is associated with an increase in the population. Among the districts can be identified such areas as Zhylyoy district. Inder district and Makat district, where there is a significant increase in waste, as the population growth in these areas is positive (0.1% in Inder district, 0.34% in Makat district and 1.3% in Zhyloy district). In the Issatay district, an increase is also predicted, but only slightly, since the population growth is 0.09%. In the remaining three districts, such as Kurmangazy district, Kyzylkuginsk district and Makhambet district, the amount of waste will decrease annually, which is associated with a decrease in population growth, while the maximum decrease is typical for Makhambet region (-4.18%). In the Kurmangazy and Kyzylkoginsk areas, the population growth rate of -0,41% and -0,72%, respectively.


Introduction
The problem of solid household waste (MSW) is very relevant, since its solution is associated with the need to ensure the normal life of the population, sanitary cleaning of cities, environmental protection and resource conservation. The volume of formation and accumulation of solid household waste on the territory of any locality largely depends on the standard of living of the population. With the increase in the level of welfare of the population of the republic, there is also an increase in the volume of municipal waste generation. At the same time, as a result of labor migration, a significant part of the rural population has moved to the cities in search of work, while the generation of household waste per capita in cities is significantly higher than in rural areas. This is due not only to higher income levels in cities, but also to differences in waste management: for example, in rural areas, food waste is usually fed to pets. Along with the increase in mass, the density of solid household waste decreases due to the increase in the content of paper and plastic in them due to packaging materials [1].
Existing landfills of solid waste in the settlements of the region do not meet modern requirements and issues of placement, processing of solid waste require early decision-making. The main specialized 2 enterprise engaged in the collection and removal of solid waste from most of the city is: "Spetsavtobaza" LLP, which has been operating in Atyrau since 1956.According to the information of "Spetsavtobaza" LLP, 802793m 3 (111589 tons) of waste was taken to the landfill daily in 2016 [3].

Research methods
The calculation of the volume of waste generation is carried out by registering vehicles that deliver waste to the landfill, as well as calculations based on the normative indicators of waste generation in 2, 5m 3 /person/year [5].
At the entrance to the landfill, garbage trucks are weighed on a platform scale. If the platform scales do not work, the waste is calculated by calculation, based on the practice of weighing the load of each garbage truck (in tons) [6].

Results and discussion
The main sources of solid household waste (MSW) are private households, multi-storey buildings, office buildings, commercial business enterprises, industrial enterprises and public organizations, kindergartens, schools, hospitals, small enterprises, agriculture, markets and bazaars and other waste generation sites covered by the municipal waste collection system.
The volume or mass of solid waste formation can be determined by analytical means, i.e. using the accumulation rate of different categories of waste set according to one accounting unit [7].
The accumulation rate is calculated as the average amount of waste generated per Accounting Unit (1 person for residential buildings) set over a certain period of timea year or a day.
In accordance with the LRD (leading regulatory documentation) 03.1.0.3.01-96 "Procedure for dosing the volume of production waste and waste disposal", the norms for the formation of household waste are as follows [8]: • in the private sector-2.27 m 3 /year per 1 person.
In this paper, the volume of solid waste formation was calculated according to the following approach [9]: The annual volume of solid household waste accumulation is expressed by the following formula: where: Mann-annual residual amount, t/year; piwaste accumulation rate, t/year, person; mi -population, people; Qrec-annual amount of recycled waste, m 3 (table 1). Thus, the average population growth characteristic of the city of Atyrau is 4.1%. Using the average percentage of population growth, it is possible to estimate the population forecast of the city of Atyrau for 2020-2024 (table 2). To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Zhylyoy district over the past years by localities was performed (table 3).  To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Inder district over the past years by localities was performed (table 5).  To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020,2021,2022,2023,2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Issatay district over the past years by localities was performed (table 7).  We calculate the volume of household waste generation: To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Kurmangazy district over the past years by localities was performed (table 9).   To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Kzylkoginsky district over the past years by localities was performed (table 11).  Makhambet district, which covers an area of 9.6 thousand square kilometers, was established in 1928 and is located to the north of the regional center of Atyrau. The administrative center is the village of Makhambet.
To determine the volume of household waste generation by year and for the future (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), an analysis of the dynamics of population growth in the Makhambet district over the past years by localities was performed (table 13). Thus, the average population growth characteristic of Makhambet district is -4.18%.
Using the average percentage of population growth, it is possible to determine the forecast of the population of Makhambet district for 2019-2024 by localities (table 14).