Models and spatial patterns of deforestation in the Jeneberang watershed

Deforestation is an event of permanent land cover change from forest cover to non-forest cover. Deforestation events are very influential on the condition of a watershed area. One of the watersheds on the island of Sulawesi that has become a concern is the Jeneberang watershed because of its influence on the city of Makassar and is a priority watershed in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the model and spatial pattern of deforestation in the Jeneberang watershed. The deforestation analysis model uses the binary logistic regression method by including factors such as a river, population density, road, count, and slope. Analysis of the spatial pattern of deforestation using Fragstat software based on three indices to describe the spatial pattern, namely the Clumpiness Index, Contiguity Mean Index, and Patch Density. The model of deforestation in the Jeneberang watershed shows the road network factor that has the most influence on the occurrence of deforestation. The road network is quite high in all areas in the Jeneberang watershed including the upstream part as a protection zone. The road network serves as community access between villages and sub-districts in Gowa Regency and connects other regencies such as Sinjai, Takalar, and Jeneponto. The spatial pattern of deforestation in the Jeneberang watershed is grouping, the level of connectivity is high, and it is not fragmented. This pattern shows that deforestation occurs in groups, is interconnected with previously deforested areas, and has a fairly large area. This pattern occurs at a relatively low rate and remains the same when the deforestation rate increases or decreases.