Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

John Cook; Dana Nuccitelli; Sarah A Green; Mark Richardson; Bärbel Winkler; Rob Painting; Robert Way; Peter Jacobs; Andrew Skuce

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

Abstract

View all Environ. Res. Lett. video abstracts

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

Export citation and abstract BibTeX RIS

Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

Supplementary data

Corrections were made to this article on 31 May 2013. A data file was added to the supplementary data. Further corrections were made on 30 October 2013. A link to further supporting data was added.

1. Introduction

An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). Communicating the scientific consensus also increases people's acceptance that climate change (CC) is happening (Lewandowsky et al 2012). Despite numerous indicators of a consensus, there is wide public perception that climate scientists disagree over the fundamental cause of global warming (GW; Leiserowitz et al 2012, Pew 2012). In the most comprehensive analysis performed to date, we have extended the analysis of peer-reviewed climate papers in Oreskes (2004). We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).

Surveys of climate scientists have found strong agreement (97–98%) regarding AGW amongst publishing climate experts (Doran and Zimmerman 2009, Anderegg et al 2010). Repeated surveys of scientists found that scientific agreement about AGW steadily increased from 1996 to 2009 (Bray 2010). This is reflected in the increasingly definitive statements issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the attribution of recent GW (Houghton et al 1996, 2001, Solomon et al 2007).

The peer-reviewed scientific literature provides a ground-level assessment of the degree of consensus among publishing scientists. An analysis of abstracts published from 1993–2003 matching the search 'global climate change' found that none of 928 papers disagreed with the consensus position on AGW (Oreskes 2004). This is consistent with an analysis of citation networks that found a consensus on AGW forming in the early 1990s (Shwed and Bearman 2010).

Despite these independent indicators of a scientific consensus, the perception of the US public is that the scientific community still disagrees over the fundamental cause of GW. From 1997 to 2007, public opinion polls have indicated around 60% of the US public believes there is significant disagreement among scientists about whether GW was happening (Nisbet and Myers 2007). Similarly, 57% of the US public either disagreed or were unaware that scientists agree that the earth is very likely warming due to human activity (Pew 2012).

Through analysis of climate-related papers published from 1991 to 2011, this study provides the most comprehensive analysis of its kind to date in order to quantify and evaluate the level and evolution of consensus over the last two decades.

2. Methodology

This letter was conceived as a 'citizen science' project by volunteers contributing to the Skeptical Science website (www.skepticalscience.com). In March 2012, we searched the ISI Web of Science for papers published from 1991–2011 using topic searches for 'global warming' or 'global climate change'. Article type was restricted to 'article', excluding books, discussions, proceedings papers and other document types. The search was updated in May 2012 with papers added to the Web of Science up to that date.

We classified each abstract according to the type of research (category) and degree of endorsement. Written criteria were provided to raters for category (table 1) and level of endorsement of AGW (table 2). Explicit endorsements were divided into non-quantified (e.g., humans are contributing to global warming without quantifying the contribution) and quantified (e.g., humans are contributing more than 50% of global warming, consistent with the 2007 IPCC statement that most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations).

Table 1. Definitions of each type of research category.

Category	Description	Example
(1) Impacts	Effects and impacts of climate change on the environment, ecosystems or humanity	'...global climate change together with increasing direct impacts of human activities, such as fisheries, are affecting the population dynamics of marine top predators'
(2) Methods	Focus on measurements and modeling methods, or basic climate science not included in the other categories	'This paper focuses on automating the task of estimating Polar ice thickness from airborne radar data...'
(3) Mitigation	Research into lowering CO₂ emissions or atmospheric CO₂ levels	'This paper presents a new approach for a nationally appropriate mitigation actions framework that can unlock the huge potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in dispersed energy end-use sectors in developing countries'
(4) Not climate-related	Social science, education, research about people's views on climate	'This paper discusses the use of multimedia techniques and augmented reality tools to bring across the risks of global climate change'
(5) Opinion	Not peer-reviewed articles	'While the world argues about reducing global warming, chemical engineers are getting on with the technology. Charles Butcher has been finding out how to remove carbon dioxide from flue gas'
(6) Paleoclimate	Examining climate during pre-industrial times	'Here, we present a pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstruction from the midlatitudes of Australia that spans the last 135 000 years...'

Table 2. Definitions of each level of endorsement of AGW.

Level of endorsement	Description	Example
(1) Explicit endorsement with quantification	Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of recent global warming	'The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s'
(2) Explicit endorsement without quantification	Explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a known fact	'Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change'
(3) Implicit endorsement	Implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gas emissions cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause	'...carbon sequestration in soil is important for mitigating global climate change'
(4a) No position	Does not address or mention the cause of global warming
(4b) Uncertain	Expresses position that human's role on recent global warming is uncertain/undefined	'While the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive...'
(5) Implicit rejection	Implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming	'...anywhere from a major portion to all of the warming of the 20th century could plausibly result from natural causes according to these results'
(6) Explicit rejection without quantification	Explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming	'...the global temperature record provides little support for the catastrophic view of the greenhouse effect'
(7) Explicit rejection with quantification	Explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming	'The human contribution to the CO₂ content in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature is negligible in comparison with other sources of carbon dioxide emission'

Abstracts were randomly distributed via a web-based system to raters with only the title and abstract visible. All other information such as author names and affiliations, journal and publishing date were hidden. Each abstract was categorized by two independent, anonymized raters. A team of 12 individuals completed 97.4% (23 061) of the ratings; an additional 12 contributed the remaining 2.6% (607). Initially, 27% of category ratings and 33% of endorsement ratings disagreed. Raters were then allowed to compare and justify or update their rating through the web system, while maintaining anonymity. Following this, 11% of category ratings and 16% of endorsement ratings disagreed; these were then resolved by a third party.

Upon completion of the final ratings, a random sample of 1000 'No Position' category abstracts were re-examined to differentiate those that did not express an opinion from those that take the position that the cause of GW is uncertain. An 'Uncertain' abstract explicitly states that the cause of global warming is not yet determined (e.g., '...the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive...') while a 'No Position' abstract makes no statement on AGW.

To complement the abstract analysis, email addresses for 8547 authors were collected, typically from the corresponding author and/or first author. For each year, email addresses were obtained for at least 60% of papers. Authors were emailed an invitation to participate in a survey in which they rated their own published papers (the entire content of the article, not just the abstract) with the same criteria as used by the independent rating team. Details of the survey text are provided in the supplementary information (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/024024/mmedia).

3. Results

The ISI search generated 12 465 papers. Eliminating papers that were not peer-reviewed (186), not climate-related (288) or without an abstract (47) reduced the analysis to 11 944 papers written by 29 083 authors and published in 1980 journals. To simplify the analysis, ratings were consolidated into three groups: endorsements (including implicit and explicit; categories 1–3 in table 2), no position (category 4) and rejections (including implicit and explicit; categories 5–7).

We examined four metrics to quantify the level of endorsement:

(1)
The percentage of endorsements/rejections/undecideds among all abstracts.
(2)
The percentage of endorsements/rejections/undecideds among only those abstracts expressing a position on AGW.
(3)
The percentage of scientists authoring endorsement/ rejection abstracts among all scientists.
(4)
The same percentage among only those scientists who expressed a position on AGW (table 3).

Table 3. Abstract ratings for each level of endorsement, shown as percentage and total number of papers.

Position	% of all abstracts	% among abstracts with AGW position (%)	% of all authors	% among authors with AGW position (%)
Endorse AGW	32.6% (3896)	97.1	34.8% (10 188)	98.4
No AGW position	66.4% (7930)	—	64.6% (18 930)	—
Reject AGW	0.7% (78)	1.9	0.4% (124)	1.2
Uncertain on AGW	0.3% (40)	1.0	0.2% (44)	0.4

3.1. Endorsement percentages from abstract ratings

Among abstracts that expressed a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the scientific consensus. Among scientists who expressed a position on AGW in their abstract, 98.4% endorsed the consensus.

The time series of each level of endorsement of the consensus on AGW was analyzed in terms of the number of abstracts (figure 1(a)) and the percentage of abstracts (figure 1(b)). Over time, the no position percentage has increased (simple linear regression trend 0.87% ± 0.28% yr⁻¹, 95% CI, R² = 0.66,p < 0.001) and the percentage of papers taking a position on AGW has equally decreased.

The average numbers of authors per endorsement abstract (3.4) and per no position abstract (3.6) are both significantly larger than the average number of authors per rejection abstract (2.0). The scientists originated from 91 countries (identified by email address) with the highest representation from the USA (N = 2548) followed by the United Kingdom (N = 546), Germany (N = 404) and Japan (N = 379) (see supplementary table S1 for full list, available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/024024/mmedia).

3.2. Endorsement percentages from self-ratings

We emailed 8547 authors an invitation to rate their own papers and received 1200 responses (a 14% response rate). After excluding papers that were not peer-reviewed, not climate-related or had no abstract, 2142 papers received self-ratings from 1189 authors. The self-rated levels of endorsement are shown in table 4. Among self-rated papers that stated a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. Among self-rated papers not expressing a position on AGW in the abstract, 53.8% were self-rated as endorsing the consensus. Among respondents who authored a paper expressing a view on AGW, 96.4% endorsed the consensus.

Table 4. Self-ratings for each level of endorsement, shown as percentage and total number of papers.

Position	% of all papers	% among papers with AGW position (%)	% of respondents	% among respondents with AGW position (%)
Endorse AGW^a	62.7% (1342)	97.2	62.7% (746)	96.4
No AGW position^b	35.5% (761)	—	34.9% (415)	—
Reject AGW^c	1.8% (39)	2.8	2.4% (28)	3.6

^aSelf-rated papers that endorse AGW have an average endorsement rating less than 4 (1 =explicit endorsement with quantification, 7 = explicit rejection with quantification).^bUndecided self-rated papers have an average rating equal to 4.^cRejection self-rated papers have an average rating greater than 4.

Figure 2(a) shows the level of self-rated endorsement in terms of number of abstracts (the corollary to figure 1(a)) and figure 2(b) shows the percentage of abstracts (the corollary to figure 1(b)). The percentage of self-rated rejection papers decreased (simple linear regression trend −0.25% ± 0.18% yr⁻¹, 95% CI, R² = 0.28,p = 0.01, figure 2(b)). The time series of self-rated no position and consensus endorsement papers both show no clear trend over time.

A direct comparison of abstract rating versus self-rating endorsement levels for the 2142 papers that received a self-rating is shown in table 5. More than half of the abstracts that we rated as 'No Position' or 'Undecided' were rated 'Endorse AGW' by the paper's authors.

Table 5. Comparison of our abstract rating to self-rating for papers that received self-ratings.

Position	Abstract rating	Self-rating
Endorse AGW	791 (36.9%)	1342 (62.7%)
No AGW position or undecided	1339 (62.5%)	761 (35.5%)
Reject AGW	12 (0.6%)	39 (1.8%)

Figure 3 compares the percentage of papers endorsing the scientific consensus among all papers that express a position endorsing or rejecting the consensus. The year-to-year variability is larger in the self-ratings than in the abstract ratings due to the smaller sample sizes in the early 1990s. The percentage of AGW endorsements for both self-rating and abstract-rated papers increase marginally over time (simple linear regression trends 0.10 ± 0.09% yr⁻¹, 95% CI, R² = 0.20,p = 0.04 for abstracts, 0.35 ± 0.26% yr⁻¹, 95% CI, R² = 0.26,p = 0.02 for self-ratings), with both series approaching approximately 98% endorsements in 2011.

4. Discussion

Of note is the large proportion of abstracts that state no position on AGW. This result is expected in consensus situations where scientists '...generally focus their discussions on questions that are still disputed or unanswered rather than on matters about which everyone agrees' (Oreskes 2007, p 72). This explanation is also consistent with a description of consensus as a 'spiral trajectory' in which 'initially intense contestation generates rapid settlement and induces a spiral of new questions' (Shwed and Bearman 2010); the fundamental science of AGW is no longer controversial among the publishing science community and the remaining debate in the field has moved to other topics. This is supported by the fact that more than half of the self-rated endorsement papers did not express a position on AGW in their abstracts.

The self-ratings by the papers' authors provide insight into the nature of the scientific consensus amongst publishing scientists. For both self-ratings and our abstract ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time, consistent with Bray (2010) in finding a strengthening consensus.

4.1. Sources of uncertainty

The process of determining the level of consensus in the peer-reviewed literature contains several sources of uncertainty, including the representativeness of the sample, lack of clarity in the abstracts and subjectivity in rating the abstracts.

We address the issue of representativeness by selecting the largest sample to date for this type of literature analysis. Nevertheless, 11 944 papers is only a fraction of the climate literature. A Web of Science search for 'climate change' over the same period yields 43 548 papers, while a search for 'climate' yields 128 440 papers. The crowd-sourcing techniques employed in this analysis could be expanded to include more papers. This could facilitate an approach approximating the methods of Doran and Zimmerman (2009), which measured the level of scientific consensus for varying degrees of expertise in climate science. A similar approach could analyze the level of consensus among climate papers depending on their relevance to the attribution of GW.

Another potential area of uncertainty involved the text of the abstracts themselves. In some cases, ambiguous language made it difficult to ascertain the intended meaning of the authors. Naturally, a short abstract could not be expected to communicate all the details of the full paper. The implementation of the author self-rating process allowed us to look beyond the abstract. A comparison between self-ratings and abstract ratings revealed that categorization based on the abstract alone underestimates the percentage of papers taking a position on AGW.

Lastly, some subjectivity is inherent in the abstract rating process. While criteria for determining ratings were defined prior to the rating period, some clarifications and amendments were required as specific situations presented themselves. Two sources of rating bias can be cited: first, given that the raters themselves endorsed the scientific consensus on AGW, they may have been more likely to classify papers as sharing that endorsement. Second, scientific reticence (Hansen 2007) or 'erring on the side of least drama' (ESLD; Brysse et al 2012) may have exerted an opposite effect by biasing raters towards a 'no position' classification. These sources of bias were partially addressed by the use of multiple independent raters and by comparing abstract rating results to author self-ratings. A comparison of author ratings of the full papers and abstract ratings reveals a bias toward an under-counting of endorsement papers in the abstract ratings (mean difference 0.6 in units of endorsement level). This mitigated concerns about rater subjectivity, but suggests that scientific reticence and ESLD remain possible biases in the abstract ratings process. The potential impact of initial rating disagreements was also calculated and found to have minimal impact on the level of consensus (see supplemental information, section S1 available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/024024/mmedia).

4.2. Comparisons with previous studies

Our sample encompasses those surveyed by Oreskes (2004) and Schulte (2008) and we can therefore directly compare the results. Oreskes (2004) analyzed 928 papers from 1993 to 2003. Over the same period, we found 932 papers matching the search phrase 'global climate change' (papers continue to be added to the ISI database). From that subset we eliminated 38 papers that were not peer-reviewed, climate-related or had no abstract. Of the remaining 894, none rejected the consensus, consistent with Oreskes' result. Oreskes determined that 75% of papers endorsed the consensus, based on the assumption that mitigation and impact papers implicitly endorse the consensus. By comparison, we found that 28% of the 894 abstracts endorsed AGW while 72% expressed no position. Among the 71 papers that received self-ratings from authors, 69% endorse AGW, comparable to Oreskes' estimate of 75% endorsements.

An analysis of 539 'global climate change' abstracts from the Web of Science database over January 2004 to mid-February 2007 found 45% endorsement and 6% rejection (Schulte 2008). Our analysis over a similar period (including all of February 2007) produced 529 papers—the reason for this discrepancy is unclear as Schulte's exact methodology is not provided. Schulte estimated a higher percentage of endorsements and rejections, possibly because the strict methodology we adopted led to a greater number of 'No Position' abstracts. Schulte also found a significantly greater number of rejection papers, including 6 explicit rejections compared to our 0 explicit rejections. See the supplementary information (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/024024/mmedia) for a tabulated comparison of results. Among 58 self-rated papers, only one (1.7%) rejected AGW in this sample. Over the period of January 2004 to February 2007, among 'global climate change' papers that state a position on AGW, we found 97% endorsements.

5. Conclusion

The public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW is a necessary element in public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). However, there is a significant gap between public perception and reality, with 57% of the US public either disagreeing or unaware that scientists overwhelmingly agree that the earth is warming due to human activity (Pew 2012).

Contributing to this 'consensus gap' are campaigns designed to confuse the public about the level of agreement among climate scientists. In 1991, Western Fuels Association conducted a $510 000 campaign whose primary goal was to 'reposition global warming as theory (not fact)'. A key strategy involved constructing the impression of active scientific debate using dissenting scientists as spokesmen (Oreskes 2010). The situation is exacerbated by media treatment of the climate issue, where the normative practice of providing opposing sides with equal attention has allowed a vocal minority to have their views amplified (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004). While there are indications that the situation has improved in the UK and USA prestige press (Boykoff 2007), the UK tabloid press showed no indication of improvement from 2000 to 2006 (Boykoff and Mansfield 2008).

The narrative presented by some dissenters is that the scientific consensus is '...on the point of collapse' (Oddie 2012) while '...the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year' (Allègre et al 2012). A systematic, comprehensive review of the literature provides quantitative evidence countering this assertion. The number of papers rejecting AGW is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time. Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to James Powell for his invaluable contribution to this analysis, Stephan Lewandowsky for his comments and to those who assisted with collecting email addresses and rating abstracts: Ari Jokimäki, Riccardo Reitano, Rob Honeycutt, Wendy Cook, Phil Scadden, Glenn Tamblyn, Anne-Marie Blackburn, John Hartz, Steve Brown, George Morrison, Alexander C Coulter, Martin B Stolpe (to name just those who are not listed as (co-)author to this paper).

References

Allègre C et al 2012 No need to panic about global warming Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html, accessed 14 September 2012)
Anderegg W R L, Prall J W, Harold J and Schneider S H 2010 Expert credibility in climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107 12107–9
Crossref
Boykoff M T 2007 Flogging a dead norm? Newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006 Area 39 470–81
Crossref
Boykoff M T and Boykoff J M 2004 Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press Glob. Environ. Change 14 125–36
Crossref
Boykoff M T and Mansfield M 2008 ‘Ye Olde Hot Aire’: reporting on human contributions to climate change in the UK tabloid press Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024002
IOPscience
Bray D 2010 The scientific consensus of climate change revisited Environ. Sci. Policy 13 340–50
Crossref
Brysse K, Oreskes N, O’Reilly J and Oppenheimer M 2012 Climate change prediction: erring on the side of least drama? Glob. Environ. Change 23 327–37
Crossref
Ding D, Maibach E W, Zhao X, Roser-Renouf C and Leiserowitz A 2011 Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement Nature Clim. Change 1 462–5
Crossref
Doran P and Zimmerman M 2009 Examining the scientific consensus on climate change EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 90 22–3
Crossref
Hansen J E 2007 Scientific reticence and sea level rise Environ. Res. Lett. 2 024002
IOPscience
Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, Noguer M, van der Linden P J, Dai X, Maskell K and Johnson C A (ed) 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/)
Houghton J T, Meira Filho L G, Callander B A, Harris N, Kattenberg A and Maskell K (ed) 1996 Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd-assessment-en.pdf)
Leiserowitz A, Maibach E, Roser-Renouf C, Feinberg G and Howe P 2012 Climate change in the American mind: Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes in September 2012 Yale Project on Climate Change Communication (New Haven, CT: Yale University and George Mason University) (http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Climate-Beliefs-September-2012.pdf)
Lewandowsky S, Gilles G and Vaughan S 2012 The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science Nature Clim. Change 3 399–404
Crossref
Nisbet M C and Myers T 2007 The polls—trends—twenty years of public opinion about global warming Public Opin. Q. 71 444–70
Crossref
Oddie W 2012 Is the ‘anthropogenic global warming’ consensus on the point of collapse? If so, this is just the right time for Chris Huhne to leave the Government Catholic Herald (www.catholicherald.co.uk/commentandblogs/2012/02/06/is-the-%E2%80%98anthropogenic-global-warming%E2%80%99-consensus-on-the-point-of-collapse-if-so-this-is-just-the-right-time-for-chris-huhne-to-leave-the-government/, accessed 14 November 2012)
Oreskes N 2004 Beyond the ivory tower. The scientific consensus on climate change Science 306 1686
Crossref
Oreskes N 2007 The scientific consensus on climate change: how do we know we’re not wrong? Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) (www.lpl.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/resources/globalwarming/oreskes-chapter-4.pdf)
Oreskes N 2010 My facts are better than your facts: spreading good news about global warming How Do Facts Travel? ed M S Morgan and P Howlett (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 135–66 (http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511762154&cid=CBO9780511762154A016)
Crossref
Pew 2012 More Say There is Solid Evidence of Global Warming (Washington, DC: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press) (www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-15-12%20Global%20Warming%20Release.pdf)
Schulte K-M 2008 Scientific consensus on climate change? Energy Environ. 19 281–6
Crossref
Shwed U and Bearman P S 2010 The temporal structure of scientific consensus formation Am. Sociol. Rev. 75 817–40
Crossref
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M and Miller H L (ed) 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm)

Export references: BibTeX RIS

Citations

An analysis of Spain's global and environmental efficiency from a European Union perspective
María Teresa Sanz-Díaz et al 2017 Energy Policy 104 183
Crossref
Tacit knowledge and risk perceptions: Tullow Oil and lay publics in Ghana’s offshore oil region
Sylvester Senyo Ofori-Parku 2017 Public Understanding of Science 096366251668548
Crossref
Beyond false balance: How interpretive journalism shapes media coverage of climate change
Michael Brüggemann and Sven Engesser 2017 Global Environmental Change 42 58
Crossref
Flexible formwork technologies - a state of the art review
Will J. Hawkins et al 2016 Structural Concrete 17 911
Crossref
Climate Change Skepticism and Voting Behavior
Rod McCrea et al 2016 Environment and Behavior 48 1309
Crossref
Diffusion Dynamics of Energy Saving Practices in Large Heterogeneous Online Networks
Neda Mohammadi et al 2016 PLOS ONE 11 e0164476
Crossref
On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs
David Robert Grimes and Chris T. Bauch 2016 PLOS ONE 11 e0147905
Crossref
Is it appropriate to ‘target’ inappropriate dissent? on the normative consequences of climate skepticism
Anna Leuschner 2016 Synthese
Crossref
Matthew Adams 2016 11
Crossref
The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism
Stephan Lewandowsky et al 2016 Synthese
Crossref
Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya
Chadwick O. Ajuang et al 2016 SpringerPlus 5
Crossref
Reading for Reliability: Preservice Teachers Evaluate Web Sources About Climate Change
James S. Damico and Alexandra Panos 2016 Journal of Adolescent & Adult Literacy
Crossref
Attributes in Fostering Waste Segregation Behaviour
Tee Sin-Yee and Low Sheau-Ting 2016 International Journal of Environmental Science and Development 7 672
Crossref
Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
John Cook et al 2016 Environmental Research Letters 11 048002
IOPscience
Comment on 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature'
Richard S J Tol 2016 Environmental Research Letters 11 048001
IOPscience
A decade of Environmental Research Letters: reflections and a vision for research in an era that needs action
Daniel M Kammen 2016 Environmental Research Letters 11 120201
IOPscience
Power in the Age of GlobalizationsMannMichael, The Sources of Social Power, Volume 4: Globalizations, 1945–2011, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York, NY, 2013; 492 pp.: 9781107610415, $34.99 (pbk)MannMichael, Incoherent Empire, Verso: London and New York, NY, 2003; 278 pp.: 9781859845820, $25.00 (hbk)MannMichael, Power in the 21st Century: Conversations with John A. Hall, Polity: Oxford and Malden, MA, 2011; 179 pp.: 9780745653235, $19.95 (pbk)
Junpeng Li 2015 Critical Sociology 41 1165
Crossref
Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change
Lawrence C. Hamilton et al 2015 PLOS ONE 10 e0138208
Crossref
Simple Messages Help Set the Record Straight about Scientific Agreement on Human-Caused Climate Change: The Results of Two Experiments
Teresa A. Myers et al 2015 PLOS ONE 10 e0120985
Crossref
Comparative Politics of Sub-Federal Cap-and-Trade: Implementing the Western Climate Initiative
David Houle 2015 Global Environmental Politics 15 49
Crossref
The Spanish Transition to Industrial Metabolism: Long-Term Material Flow Analysis (1860-2010)
Juan Infante-Amate et al 2015 Journal of Industrial Ecology 19 866
Crossref
Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students’ Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming
Daniel Bedford 2015 Journal of Geography 1
Crossref
Transcriptome-wide characterization of candidate genes for improving the water use efficiency of energy crops grown on semiarid land
Yangyang Fan et al 2015 Journal of Experimental Botany 66 6415
Crossref
Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios
Gabriel Zorello Laporta et al 2015 Parasites & Vectors 8
Crossref
Thinking like a climate
Hannah Knox 2015 Distinktion: Scandinavian Journal of Social Theory 1
Crossref
Tension between scientific certainty and meaning complicates communication of IPCC reports
G. J. S. Hollin and W. Pearce 2015 Nature Climate Change
Crossref
Examining differences in public opinion on climate change between college students in China and the USA
Eric Jamelske et al 2015 Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 5 87
Crossref
Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community
Stephan Lewandowsky et al 2015 Global Environmental Change 33 1
Crossref
Todd Beer 2015
Crossref
The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists
J S Carlton et al 2015 Environmental Research Letters 10 094025
IOPscience
Comment on 'Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature'
Benjamin John Floyd Dean 2015 Environmental Research Letters 10 039001
IOPscience
Environmental assessments in the built environment: crucial yet underdeveloped
Jukka Heinonen et al 2015 Environmental Research Letters 10 035003
IOPscience
The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies
Mark J. Hurlstone et al 2014 PLoS ONE 9 e114335
Crossref
2014 160
Crossref
Moral Collapse in a Warming World
Clive Hamilton 2014 Ethics & International Affairs 28 335
Crossref
Grounded Theory analysis of commuters discussing a workplace carbon-reduction target: Autonomy, satisfaction, and willingness to change behaviour in drivers, pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcyclists, and bus users
Gregory O. Thomas et al 2014 Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour 26 72
Crossref
Scientists’ views about attribution of global warming
Bart Verheggen et al 2014 Environmental Science & Technology 140722153031002
Crossref
System-level benefits of extracting and treating saline water from geologic formations during national-scale carbon capture and storage
Jesse D. Roach et al 2014 International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 25 186
Crossref
Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change''
Dana Nuccitelli et al 2014 International Journal of Modern Physics B 1482003
Crossref
OECD Policies for Bioplastics in the Context of a Bioeconomy, 2013
Jim Philp 2014 Industrial Biotechnology 10 19
Crossref
Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia
Mahdi Shahnazari et al 2014 Applied Energy 118 271
Crossref
Public interest in climate change over the past decade and the effects of the 'climategate' media event
William R L Anderegg and Gregory R Goldsmith 2014 Environmental Research Letters 9 054005
IOPscience
Greenhouse Gas Implications of Urban Sprawl in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area
Sanna Ala-Mantila et al 2013 Sustainability 5 4461
Crossref
Arctic marine fishes and their fisheries in light of global change
Jørgen S. Christiansen et al 2013 Global Change Biology n/a
Crossref
A.R. Miller 2013
Crossref
“Cultural Cognition”: What Mental Health Researchers and Clinicians Might Learn from the Climate Change Debate
Summer Schrader and Mona Shattell 2013 Issues in Mental Health Nursing 34 842
Crossref
The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models
Nicholas Stern 2013 Journal of Economic Literature 51 838
Crossref
Defending Science Education
2013 BioScience 63 717
Crossref
Future collapse: how optimistic should we be?
P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich 2013 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280 20131373
Crossref
Agnotology, Scientific Consensus, and the Teaching and Learning of Climate Change: A Response to Legates, Soon and Briggs
Daniel Bedford and John Cook 2013 Science & Education
Crossref
Situated lifestyles: II. The impacts of urban density, housing type and motorization on the greenhouse gas emissions of the middle-income consumers in Finland
Jukka Heinonen et al 2013 Environmental Research Letters 8 035050
IOPscience
History and future of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming
Fritz Reusswig 2013 Environmental Research Letters 8 031003
IOPscience

Export citations: BibTeX RIS

Hide supplementary data

Supplementary data. (169 KB PDF)

Data file. (2.00 MB TXT)

Additional supporting data have been published here (we are not responsible for the content of external sites).