Forecasting of Bandar Lampung's Population Using Growth Mathematical Models

This paper investigates the projection on the population of Bandar Lampung City in 2017 - 2030 through a mathematical modeling approach. Here, we use four growth mathematical models particularly simple linear regression model, exponential model, logistic model and demographic transition model. The best approximation is chosen based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of the four models compared to the actual data. By using population data from 1995 - 2011, the results show that the model which gives the smallest MAPE is exponential model and the largest MAPE is demographic transition model.