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The matchmaking paradox: a statistical explanation

Iddo I Eliazar1 and Igor M Sokolov2

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Medical surveys regarding the number of heterosexual partners per person yield different female and male averages—a result which, from a physical standpoint, is impossible. In this paper we term this puzzle the 'matchmaking paradox', and establish a statistical model explaining it. We consider a bipartite graph with N male and N female nodes (N Gt 1), and B bonds connecting them (B Gt 1). Each node is associated a random 'attractiveness level', and the bonds connect to the nodes randomly—with probabilities which are proportionate to the nodes' attractiveness levels. The population's average bonds-per-nodes B/N is estimated via a sample average calculated from a survey of size n (n Gt 1). A comprehensive statistical analysis of this model is carried out, asserting that (i) the sample average well estimates the population average if and only if the attractiveness levels possess a finite mean; (ii) if the attractiveness levels are governed by a 'fat-tailed' probability law then the sample average displays wild fluctuations and strong skew—thus providing a statistical explanation to the matchmaking paradox.


PACS

87.23.Cc Population dynamics and ecological pattern formation

02.50.Ng Distribution theory and Monte Carlo studies

02.50.Cw Probability theory

05.40.Fb Random walks and Levy flights

MSC

92D25 Population dynamics (general)

60G50 Sums of independent random variables; random walks

Subjects

Computational physics

Environmental and Earth science

Statistical physics and nonlinear systems

Dates

Issue 5 (5 February 2010)

Received 25 October 2009, in final form 11 December 2009

Published 14 January 2010



  1. The matchmaking paradox: a statistical explanation

    Iddo I Eliazar and Igor M Sokolov 2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 055001

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