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Theory of agent-based market models with controlled levels of greed and anxiety

P Papadopoulos and A C C Coolen

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We use generating functional analysis to study minority-game-type market models with generalized strategy valuation updates that control the psychology of agents' actions. The agents' choice between trend-following and contrarian trading, and their vigor in each, depends on the overall state of the market. Even in 'fake history' models, the theory now involves an effective overall bid process (coupled to the effective agent process) which can exhibit profound remanence effects and new phase transitions. For some models the bid process can be solved directly, others require Maxwell-construction-type approximations.


PACS

89.65.Gh Economics; econophysics, financial markets, business and management

02.50.Le Decision theory and game theory

MSC

91A15 Stochastic games

91B28 Finance, portfolios, investment

91B26 Market models (auctions, bargaining, bidding, selling, etc.)

Subjects

Computational physics

Statistical physics and nonlinear systems

Dates

Issue 2 (15 January 2010)

Received 6 August 2009, in final form 5 November 2009

Published 10 December 2009



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