A Olchev et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045007 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045007
A Olchev1, E Novenko2, O Desherevskaya3, K Krasnorutskaya4 and J Kurbatova1
Show affiliationsPart of Climatic and Environmental Change in Northern Eurasia
Effects of possible climatic and vegetation changes on H2O and CO2 fluxes in boreal forest ecosystems of the central part of European Russia were quantified using modeling and experimental data. The future pattern of climatic conditions for the period up to 2100 was derived using the global climatic model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description, Report 349 (Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology) p 127) with the A1B emission scenario. The possible trends of future vegetation changes were obtained by reconstructions of vegetation cover and paleoclimatic conditions in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, as provided from pollen and plant macrofossil analysis of profiles in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (CFSNBR). Applying the method of paleoanalogues demonstrates that increasing the mean annual temperature, even by 1–2 °C, could result in reducing the proportion of spruce in boreal forest stands by up to 40%. Modeling experiments, carried out using a process-based Mixfor-SVAT model, show that the expected future climatic and vegetation changes lead to a significant increase of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) of the boreal forests. Despite the expected warming and moistening of the climate, the modeling experiments indicate a relatively weak increase of annual evapotranspiration (ET) and even a reduction of transpiration (TR) rates of forest ecosystems compared to present conditions.
92.60.hv Pressure, density, and temperature
92.60.Jq Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)
Issue 4 (October-December 2009)
Received 13 March 2009, accepted for publication 24 July 2009
Published 15 October 2009
A Olchev et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045007
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